The vaccine response is directly proportional to immune system function. It is not as strong[1] in older people, who are also most at risk from the disease.
This isn't mutually exclusive with the vaccine being effective. However, we're heading towards less than 70% effectiveness (95% with fresh booster) against severe cases in the older age groups[2]. These cases add up.
These are age cohort averages. If you die of COVID despite being vaccinated, clearly the vaccine was 0% effective and early treatment could possibly have helped.
Either way, 70% is not incredible in my book. The 95% from the booster will not last.
The picture is similar: Efficacy of around 70% (two doses) and 95% (fresh booster) against death. This is far from "one in a million". If you age-stratified this data further, you would likely get better efficacy though.
Assume for the purpose every single one of the ~600 is old. Same outcome. Indeed leaving them in, according to your own source makes vaccines look worse than they are! Given how the large sample size etc is I am more than comfortable taking the UK unstratified data and clncluding the vaccines are effective.
> Because of age confounding, it is crucial to stratify by age groups, and further to remove children from the <60yr group; otherwise Simpson's paradox makes vaccines look like they are not effective in protecting against COVID-19 deaths at all.
No matter how you twist and turn it, the vaccines are significantly less effective in the people who need it the most, to the point where a significant amount of deaths, in both absolue and relative terms, occur in the fully vaccinated. That means better options for treatment are still needed. That is the point I am making, nothing else.
> You are litterally making shit up by saying a significant amount of deaths, in both absolue and relative terms, occur in the fully vaccinated
Let's go back to current UK data: During the delta wave, 1,613 deaths have been fully vaccinated. That's 70% of deaths, despite high vaccine efficacy. If that's not significant, then the other 722 unvaccinated deaths aren't significant either.
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[ 6.2 ms ] story [ 40.4 ms ] threadSo, you have to actually know you have the disease and be willing to go into to the doctor immediately to get an intravenous drug regimen.
The Venn diagram between those who will do that and those who are already vaccinated is probably 100%.
[1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03739-1
This isn't mutually exclusive with the vaccine being effective. However, we're heading towards less than 70% effectiveness (95% with fresh booster) against severe cases in the older age groups[2]. These cases add up.
[2] https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-...
> They are 70% effective / 95% effective.
Pick a lane?
Either way, 70% is not incredible in my book. The 95% from the booster will not last.
Yes you are correct to say if something is effective 999,999 in a million, it is 0% effective in the 1 person.
As you specifically mention deaths, but present no information regarding it here is the UK data: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsde...
All cohorts: 51,281 total covid deaths in the 6 months Jan - July 2021. 640 of which had 2 doses of a vaccine.
I can give you a source for deaths in the past few weeks in Israel, but only stratified between over/under 60:
https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/what-do-new-israeli-d...
The picture is similar: Efficacy of around 70% (two doses) and 95% (fresh booster) against death. This is far from "one in a million". If you age-stratified this data further, you would likely get better efficacy though.
> Because of age confounding, it is crucial to stratify by age groups, and further to remove children from the <60yr group; otherwise Simpson's paradox makes vaccines look like they are not effective in protecting against COVID-19 deaths at all.
Best of luck to you on your propaganda campaign.
Let's go back to current UK data: During the delta wave, 1,613 deaths have been fully vaccinated. That's 70% of deaths, despite high vaccine efficacy. If that's not significant, then the other 722 unvaccinated deaths aren't significant either.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... (Page 20)
> Best of luck to you on your propaganda campaign.
Same to you.