It won't be. Still hoping for an invasion? You should well the know the 24 million Taiwanese people haven't wanted it for 73 years, longer than Xi has been alive...
By what metrics is Taiwan “failing” in any way? Their GDP per capita is almost 3x of China. They don’t live under constant surveillance. With what relatively few people they have they’ve created the world’s most advanced semiconductors fab.
The reason I don't support the PRC is not because of the amount of land they claim. I support the ROC because they are not one of the worst countries on Earth. The PRC is evil and any expansion of it would be bad.
Given the disastrous way the US withdrew from Afghanistan if a now emboldened China decided to invade Taiwan I feel like the US would just stand by and watch. Unfortunate to see the resolve of the US falter to uphold.
Japan is very unlikely to sit and watch during a would be invasion of Taiwan.
Mr. Kishida, the next likely PM of Japan has made it pretty clear that Japan needs to work together with the US in case they have to respond to a Taiwan invasion scenario. Here's the Global Times propaganda piece regarding his recent WSJ interview:
JP plays up China threat card for domestic politics/electioneering. It's theater. Here's how you know JP will seriously engage in TW defense, if they adopt any of the recommendations US think tanks believe is necessary to make US forces survivable in TW defense scenarios. Increase defense budget substantially, hosting US IRBMs, allowing US assets to spread out over other JP islands (agile combat deployment). Non of this is politically feasible, especially the latter since it expose JP population centres to PRC retaliation. For reference Japanese won't even allow US Aegis Ashore ABM to defend themselves against NK nukes.
We're weary of useless and unnecessary wars -exhausted. I'm glad we got out of a place we should have never been in.
This is coming up and a wrong time for Taiwan. We are in no mood for wars, the president is neither, and may be exhausted himself. So, only if the military does it behind his back and essentially do a coup, would we go full on in there.
We're spent, China knows it. But then, Taiwan, like Japan are of strategic importance. AF was the opposite of that. We could be 3T ahead in infrastructure instead.
Probably the only thing that keeps China back is international trade. It would plummet and their economy would sour quick and the rest of the world would suffer "supply chain" pain.
If anything happens this is mostly all GW's fault.
Taiwan can't take down a Chinese jet without severe consequences. They understand that better than the average US neocon (referring to the writers of the National Interest).
Sure they can but the consequences will be severe. It's equivalent to a remora fish pissing off the whale it feeds off of. Taiwan's economy would experience a tremendous decline in that scenario.
Afghanistan doesn’t quite compare, for example a carrier group poses no threat whatsoever to Afghanistan because there is no infrastructure to destroy. In contrast one or two US carrier groups could not only offer a ridiculous level of defense, but also a fast moving and aggressive offense that would pose enough of a threat such that it wouldn’t need to be used. At least one can hope. Interesting and scary times tbh. Given the rapid change in situation in Hong Kong, though, I’m not expecting much.
I wouldn’t be so sure, the growing vulnerability of American aircraft carriers to Chinese anti-ship ballistic missiles such as the DF-21D is just one problem to which the Pentagon lacks a good solution.
The territorial status of Taiwan remains number one on my mental list of “shit that can start world war three” if it wasn’t already, it got knocked off top spot for a brief little while a few years ago during the very worst of North Korea’s Sabre rattling in the very early days of Trump’s presidency, when it was unclear who would blink, if the escalation of threats had continued and North Korea pushed their “our missiles can hit the USA our great enemy” harder, but other than that week or two period, Taiwanese territorial sovereignty has been my number one most likely cause of WW3 for at least the last decade.
You invade us, we'll torch every fab on our island.
As Dirty Harry would say, "Go ahead, make my day". Torching the fabs would level the playing fields as China would then have more fabs available than the West would. TSMC is who is supplying most of the West's semiconductors these days. They are more advanced than Intel, etc.
I don't think Taiwan sabotaging itself will slow down China. A weaker TW is a lot more vulnerable to reunification and remember, China can nonviolently destroy the Taiwanese economy with very little effort as it is right now due to how supply chains are structured.
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[ 4.3 ms ] story [ 68.2 ms ] threadThey can get John Cena to apologize in Mandarin, so they can sure as hell seize Taiwan.
Mr. Kishida, the next likely PM of Japan has made it pretty clear that Japan needs to work together with the US in case they have to respond to a Taiwan invasion scenario. Here's the Global Times propaganda piece regarding his recent WSJ interview:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202109/1235510.shtml
This is coming up and a wrong time for Taiwan. We are in no mood for wars, the president is neither, and may be exhausted himself. So, only if the military does it behind his back and essentially do a coup, would we go full on in there.
We're spent, China knows it. But then, Taiwan, like Japan are of strategic importance. AF was the opposite of that. We could be 3T ahead in infrastructure instead.
Probably the only thing that keeps China back is international trade. It would plummet and their economy would sour quick and the rest of the world would suffer "supply chain" pain.
If anything happens this is mostly all GW's fault.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/taiwan-wants-suicid...
Random: did you ever fuck around with PBXs in the early 90s?
Would US risk WW3 over:
Eastern Europe? Yes
Japan? Yes
South Korea? No
Taiwan? No
Crimea? No
Hong Kong? No
You invade us, we'll torch every fab on our island.
Simple and borderline stupid and illustrative of my own ignorance, no doubt, yet it seems like the ultimate strategy.
As Dirty Harry would say, "Go ahead, make my day". Torching the fabs would level the playing fields as China would then have more fabs available than the West would. TSMC is who is supplying most of the West's semiconductors these days. They are more advanced than Intel, etc.