Not working. With so many people trying WFH for the first time, they got the taste and then move it step further and take 10 or 20 years sabbatical, spending their retirement money now. Living, you know.
Funny enough this would be a mean reversion in attitude. Praising labor for labor's sake, especially heavy labor and especially intellectual labor, is a recent phenomenon.
"sloth" is one of the seven deadly sins, not that recently either. Not to mention the mention of the Sabbath in the 10 Commandments, whereby you hsd to be told not to work, and nor covet any of your neighbor's stuff which is tangentially related.
I'm fairly sure plenty of folks don't even take those two weeks off. Plenty are still contactable. Plemty are actually contacted during vacation. Quite a few "come in just to sort out a few fires" or, even worse, are "encouraged to come in or don't come back".
I'm confused by this HN submission title, which is currently "What can be the next big thing after the internet?" The linked article has little to do with that title, other than being about the potential for artificial intelligence to develop new technology.
The article sells AI snake oil, but talking point is still interesting.
The next logical step will be discovery of superconducting minerals somewhere on Mars. The next step for software is making a step into reality. So far software runs on chips and does purely virtual things. With invention of "nano robots" of some kind, software will be able to assemble massive projects that people can't assemble even with machinery. But I also believe it's still a pipe dream.
Yeah i get there are some applications in some niche tasks, but we're like in the 1970s of the AI/ML revolution if we compare it to the internet's timeline.
The number of 'niche tasks' where it has had immediate application value is enormous, to the point where it will be quite a while before all of the low hanging fruit has been plucked, it definitely wasn't a nothingburger.
I've looked at numerous start-ups over the last couple of years that managed to substantially alter the landscape they operated in on the basis of the change in the state of the art due to AI/ML.
Is there an easy way for the lay-tech-person to get a window into this world?
It feels like the internet and mobile were a lot easier to follow. But with AI/ML, most of it seems to be stuffed in black boxes that I have no way to follow.
AI can "almost" do everything but doesn't seem to be able to fully do very many things - the self-driving car failure epitomizes things. Health care is another "promising" field where failure has been universal.
Maybe some of suggestion type applications will work out but they don't quite seem like a revolutionization. Plus playing go, better astronomy image filtering and tweaking whatever server algorithms.
I would also add that there is going to be INCREDIBLE resistance to AI/ML applications. Both from menial AND skilled labor fronts.
I've been following a dental AI startup. They've pivoted a couple times and I suspect it's because the dentists who would use this: 1.) don't want to make themselves obsolete and 2.) don't want to give credence to a robot opinion in the room. (e.g. have the insurance companies fighting them because what the AI bot says goes against whatever the dentist is saying).
Another prime example is the legal industry. There is soooo much of the legal industry that can be automated. We've been saying that the legal industry will collapse for decades because of this. However, coincidentally the people who stand to be made obsolete are also the people that can legislate themselves from being obsolete.
>Agreed, I see this mostly as an expert-assist thing
Thats exactly what happened to the dental AI startup I mentioned. They started off with "we make dental care more efficient" essentially undermining the dentist, to "dentists, let us help you with your practice"
Mobile is the only one there that feels like it has been a real difference in kind. Crypto obviously makes big promises, but in my view it hasn't really made an impact on average people the way ubiquitous smartphones has. Likewise for AI/ML, for the average person the impact has just been solid but not revolutionary improvements in software for voice recognition, search, translation (maybe some others I'm forgetting).
The other thing that stands out to me as making a noticeable impact in average people's lives is "Internet of things," although that's a pretty broad category that basically lumps together mobile/embedded compute hardware with some AI/ML touches (namely home voice assistants).
The thing that stands out to me as being a potential difference in kind in the near future is affordable high-speed low-latency satellite internet constellations. One could argue that mobile already gave us the biggest jump towards constant personal connectivity, but I suspect that truly global high-speed connectivity has a chance of unlocking some possibilities that could end up feeling like a difference in kind.
I suppose the big ones that many tech people would list for the near future are self-driving cars and VR/AR.
Semi intelligent automation like self driving cars, most likely. They already work so it is only a matter of time before it gets widely deployed, like how it took decades for the internet to truly take off. Other than that I don't think we have anything as big as the internet on the horizon.
AI would end this civilisation of greedy paranoics. If even the tech to spread knowledge (internet) has become a tool of oppression, AI won't have a chance to improve anything.
That's a bit pessimistic. Internet has its ups and downs, I'm not entirely sure what its net value is at the end.
But that's why I said that AI must be implemented right. It has both the power to be extremely good or extremely bad. Time will tell what's to come of it.
I see zero interest or even hope in where we've headed.
There's been a serious failure to start the alternatives. And I think there's a lot of good reasons. But the status quo of fewer & fewer & fewer being reasonably cross-proficient at computing, and the world delegating all work to them?
It's fucking busted as fuck. It's janky broken down out of control shit that no one anywhere likes.
We'll marshal up eventually. Some folks will figure out how to care with effectiveness.
I don't care what you think the indicators are. You're right but it doesn't matter. It's dead fucking obvious to me that the pendulum will swing back at some point, that people will re-personalize computing, and that this time, we'll have a bit more ambition in our personal computing & want to project our powers wide & far, not just within the single-system domain. We will beget a new, communicative way of doing things for ourselves.
Because the current way fucking sucks. It's infinitely limiting. Some day it'll be clear doing for ourselves is the only possible conceivable way, that it's enriching & not limiting, and that the paid for alternatives all suck & are limited. Not to mention monitored by every government via dragnet surveillance & sold as marketing data. Figuring out how to get ourselves online (or interconnecting offline or semi-online) isn't easy, and everyone hates on the ambition, the possibility of better, but some day a new cool will emerge, a new train of being powerful, cool, interesting geeks, and it's not with any of the shitty awful anti-humanity big cloudtech crap we endure. Computing will rise again, out of the ashes of this crap.
Definitely Virtual Reality. Just stepping into Beat Saber, my small living room turns into an expanse that previously would have required hallucinogenic drugs to experience. Fast forward the hardware and software 10 years and I can imagine an entirely separate life that becomes as stimulating/"real" as my meatspace life.
Next gen computing e.g. Quantum computing, Optical computing, Biological computing etc.
AI will be huge in the long term and it will automate pretty much everything but next gen computing platform will have even more impact.
VR, AR and other immersive reality technologies will play more significant role in the years to come but nowhere near AI and next gen computing platform whatever it might be.
'Customer Service' - no hear me out. Many a times a month I 'struggle' with customer service levels from my ISP call centre to the service levels of my local restaurant or my local DMV dept. I should also mention that many times a month i also receive stellar service from some service companies (so Im not a total ogre).
But really who as a child dreams:'I cant wait till i grow up and get to work in a call centre, sorting out frustrated/rude/angry customers'
I honestly dont know whats the solution ?
Is it a new customer-metric ? a New training-product ?
I different management style ?? An AGI-level bot ? Or maybe its an accounting-budget-allowance that allows the company to hire 'stellar university graduates' to staff their first line of customer service ??
I honestly dont know the answer. But i do know staffing your company with (what seems to me) the minimum-wage-candidates can do more harm than good. We need a altavisa-to-Google leap or a BBS-to-Internet type of leap in everyday customer-service levels.
Ps. Maybe the answer isn't 'better service', but for us(ok me) to be more ok, less frustrated and at peace with getting what I perceive as low quality customer service at times.
Sorta like instead of inventing a better non-stickpan for eggs, the answer might be to develop a better egg-cleaning method
It's an interesting angle, and if combined with whatever makes a places known for their service become popular (I don't think it's just the service), I could see this making an impact.
There is a real pain point around using digital services that are basically utilities, and knowing their customer service is a 4 option robot. The more important the product paired with the more worse service, it creates companies people really hate.
A two examples are Chick Fil A and Ticketmaster. A blend of things took Chick Fil A to its popularity, and service is definitely part of that. Ticketmaster, which more or less just does not have a phone number to talk to anymore and a few day email delay to interact with. Have a problem with this ticket, at an event coming up very soon? Tough luck.
Me: Hey Doc, I got hayfever and here is my genome.
Doc: Ok normally we would give you this second generation antihistamine at the prescribed dosage, but because of gene XYZ( that is up-or-down regulated) Im going to recommend going with the lesser know antihistamine product B at 1.5 the std dosages.
There are many ways to interpret the question. I guess OP is promoting AI as the answer to the next “ big thing.” However, I interpret the question to mean “what comes after the Internet?” Several comments have suggested mobile as the next thing after the Internet, and I would tend to agree. You could also argue for social media platforms. So what comes after mobile? The core requirement for pictographs, writing, books, telegraphs, telephones, radios, television, the Internet and now mobile has been the need for communication. Humans need to be social and they need to communicate. I would think that the next thing after mobile will be some faster, more accurate, higher information density and/or convenient way to communicate. Put your thinking caps on and try to imagine a better communication scheme than we have right now.
58 comments
[ 3.5 ms ] story [ 123 ms ] threadThe next logical step will be discovery of superconducting minerals somewhere on Mars. The next step for software is making a step into reality. So far software runs on chips and does purely virtual things. With invention of "nano robots" of some kind, software will be able to assemble massive projects that people can't assemble even with machinery. But I also believe it's still a pipe dream.
Yeah i get there are some applications in some niche tasks, but we're like in the 1970s of the AI/ML revolution if we compare it to the internet's timeline.
I've looked at numerous start-ups over the last couple of years that managed to substantially alter the landscape they operated in on the basis of the change in the state of the art due to AI/ML.
It feels like the internet and mobile were a lot easier to follow. But with AI/ML, most of it seems to be stuffed in black boxes that I have no way to follow.
https://www.kaggle.com/competitions
but there are plenty of others there that you might be able to relate to.
Maybe some of suggestion type applications will work out but they don't quite seem like a revolutionization. Plus playing go, better astronomy image filtering and tweaking whatever server algorithms.
I've been following a dental AI startup. They've pivoted a couple times and I suspect it's because the dentists who would use this: 1.) don't want to make themselves obsolete and 2.) don't want to give credence to a robot opinion in the room. (e.g. have the insurance companies fighting them because what the AI bot says goes against whatever the dentist is saying).
Another prime example is the legal industry. There is soooo much of the legal industry that can be automated. We've been saying that the legal industry will collapse for decades because of this. However, coincidentally the people who stand to be made obsolete are also the people that can legislate themselves from being obsolete.
Thats exactly what happened to the dental AI startup I mentioned. They started off with "we make dental care more efficient" essentially undermining the dentist, to "dentists, let us help you with your practice"
And Crypto too.
The other thing that stands out to me as making a noticeable impact in average people's lives is "Internet of things," although that's a pretty broad category that basically lumps together mobile/embedded compute hardware with some AI/ML touches (namely home voice assistants).
The thing that stands out to me as being a potential difference in kind in the near future is affordable high-speed low-latency satellite internet constellations. One could argue that mobile already gave us the biggest jump towards constant personal connectivity, but I suspect that truly global high-speed connectivity has a chance of unlocking some possibilities that could end up feeling like a difference in kind.
I suppose the big ones that many tech people would list for the near future are self-driving cars and VR/AR.
On a serious note I think internet will evolve to instead of serving our needs it'll serve the needs of AGI.
But that's why I said that AI must be implemented right. It has both the power to be extremely good or extremely bad. Time will tell what's to come of it.
There's no indication that we're ever massively heading in the opposite direction again.
There's been a serious failure to start the alternatives. And I think there's a lot of good reasons. But the status quo of fewer & fewer & fewer being reasonably cross-proficient at computing, and the world delegating all work to them?
It's fucking busted as fuck. It's janky broken down out of control shit that no one anywhere likes.
We'll marshal up eventually. Some folks will figure out how to care with effectiveness.
I don't care what you think the indicators are. You're right but it doesn't matter. It's dead fucking obvious to me that the pendulum will swing back at some point, that people will re-personalize computing, and that this time, we'll have a bit more ambition in our personal computing & want to project our powers wide & far, not just within the single-system domain. We will beget a new, communicative way of doing things for ourselves.
Because the current way fucking sucks. It's infinitely limiting. Some day it'll be clear doing for ourselves is the only possible conceivable way, that it's enriching & not limiting, and that the paid for alternatives all suck & are limited. Not to mention monitored by every government via dragnet surveillance & sold as marketing data. Figuring out how to get ourselves online (or interconnecting offline or semi-online) isn't easy, and everyone hates on the ambition, the possibility of better, but some day a new cool will emerge, a new train of being powerful, cool, interesting geeks, and it's not with any of the shitty awful anti-humanity big cloudtech crap we endure. Computing will rise again, out of the ashes of this crap.
1) Bundle
2) Un-bundle
The Internet was bundling, now the next step will be un-bundling.
People will start looking at the very microlevel to improve their lives after 3 decades spent at the macrolevel.
Biotech, psychedelics, mental health, longevity, healthspan, leisure...
https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revol...
AI will be huge in the long term and it will automate pretty much everything but next gen computing platform will have even more impact.
VR, AR and other immersive reality technologies will play more significant role in the years to come but nowhere near AI and next gen computing platform whatever it might be.
I would have clicked the original article but this is pretty bad headline abuse. In fact, I might have missed the article with it's click-baited name.
But really who as a child dreams:'I cant wait till i grow up and get to work in a call centre, sorting out frustrated/rude/angry customers'
I honestly dont know whats the solution ?
Is it a new customer-metric ? a New training-product ?
I different management style ?? An AGI-level bot ? Or maybe its an accounting-budget-allowance that allows the company to hire 'stellar university graduates' to staff their first line of customer service ??
I honestly dont know the answer. But i do know staffing your company with (what seems to me) the minimum-wage-candidates can do more harm than good. We need a altavisa-to-Google leap or a BBS-to-Internet type of leap in everyday customer-service levels.
Ps. Maybe the answer isn't 'better service', but for us(ok me) to be more ok, less frustrated and at peace with getting what I perceive as low quality customer service at times.
Sorta like instead of inventing a better non-stickpan for eggs, the answer might be to develop a better egg-cleaning method
There is a real pain point around using digital services that are basically utilities, and knowing their customer service is a 4 option robot. The more important the product paired with the more worse service, it creates companies people really hate.
A two examples are Chick Fil A and Ticketmaster. A blend of things took Chick Fil A to its popularity, and service is definitely part of that. Ticketmaster, which more or less just does not have a phone number to talk to anymore and a few day email delay to interact with. Have a problem with this ticket, at an event coming up very soon? Tough luck.
Me: Hey Doc, I got hayfever and here is my genome.
Doc: Ok normally we would give you this second generation antihistamine at the prescribed dosage, but because of gene XYZ( that is up-or-down regulated) Im going to recommend going with the lesser know antihistamine product B at 1.5 the std dosages.
Followed by universal, decentralized, cheap energy that will be needed to overcome the problem caused by privatized, centralized, expensive energy.