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As people may need to access services in multiple countries, won't we end up seeing these national online ID systems becoming interoperable?

Presumably there would be some process by which different countries can grant mutual recognition of accounts (and there would no doubt be data shared between systems, for taxation, etc.), but I could even imagine the UN coordinating or mandating a global federated online ID system.

I believe you're overestimating the demand for cross border identity services. If I'm in the UK, they UK would identity proof me once (in my case, with my US passport) for a visa or other authorization and then issue a UK credential. Consider how IBAN bank account numbers are structured [1].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Bank_Account_Num...