I see changes, some better, some worse. I was not happy with the state I resided in so I left. The state was responding poorly to a pandemic, over-correcting and abusing the situation so I did something about it. Logistics will be bad in most countries for a while but it will correct itself eventually. It takes a few days longer to get something from Amazon and my packages are often beat up. Anyone looking for a job should be happy given so many people have resigned. There are something like 10.5 million job vacancies in the U.S. Tensions between a few nations are heating up to the point I find it hard to call their actions saber-rattling any more but that may be a boon for defense contractors and the GDP, maybe. Oh and there is a bit more tribalism in the U.S. and people are more divided, not sure if that is happening in other nations. Beyond that, everything else appears business as usual to me.
What are some of the things you are seeing becoming progressively worse?
We can't talk to people who disagree with us. We especially can't listen to them. That's far worse than it was.
Political polarization is worse than it was.
Wealth inequality is worse than it was. Economic opportunity for the lower and lower middle classes is worse than it was.
I don't buy the "climate change is going to destroy everything" pessimism. I don't buy "covid forever, we'll never return to normal" either, though it can start to feel like that. But there are some things that are legitimately getting worse, and they're concerning.
I see life getting way better. With the R value of delta everyone will have it vaxxed or not within a year. Once the stimulus packages pass low interest rates should lock in for at least 10 years. Just borrow as much as you can as cheap as you can and buy assets.
The only real trick is figuring out when to retire somewhere tropical. I’d say hold out until the prime rate goes to 2% or debt to GDP reaches 150%, sell enough to cover your debt and ride it out in Margaritaville.
Depends on whether the Democrats can get the $3 Trillion infrastructure bill passed. There is exactly 0% chance that it will be revenue neutral, no matter how much they claim that it will be.
"Blizzard is being ransacked by the Woke Mob that doesn't actually care about any alleged abuses towards any employees", "Real wealth is actually shrinking" (while not mentioning climate change), "The Elite are fabricating a casus belli against Regular Working People" (after blowing trillions to help them)?
I'm sorry, I try to be charitable, but this guy reads like a well-written National Review comments section nutter.
I'm in the pessimistic camp too, but the quasi-Stalinist revolution this guy sees coming seems profoundly unlikely.
I think I only agree in part. If this is an accurate picture of what's going on, though, the "elite" effort is doomed, because as the pie shrinks the masses are going to become increasingly resistant to the elites wasting resources on make-work programs for their allies.
And, that question at the end? The only politician I can see that could pull off such a thing is Trump. He would do it on behalf of a different set of elites, though - ones with less structural power than the regular set. (And one could guess that the incredible hostility of the establishment elites toward Trump was caused by him threatening their gravy train.)
Over the next 20-50 years a lot of places in the U.S. (primarily out West) are going to get a lot less fun to live due to climate change alone.
Miami might be able to keep rising tides at bay for 50 years but Oregon, Washington, Colorado, and California won’t be able to do much about heat and wildfire smoke. Arizona and Nevada might not be so bad because they’re built for the heat already.
Climate change is something humans missed their chance to fix decades ago. Now we’re getting set to pay the bill that’s already due. We have to pretend like we’ve still got a chance to “solve” it because the alternative (admitting it’s a lost cause) is just too sad.
Are you talking creature comforts? Physical "stuff"? Are you talking basic services (e.g., clean water)? Or what about liberty and privacy vs perception of safety? Or what about social mobility and income inequality?
If you value liberty and privacy then odds are worse is most likely. If you value comfort and consuming "stuff" then the system will continue to do its best to stroke you and coddle you.
There are broader improvements (e.g., more ppl die from too much food than not enough). But all in all we're headed for The Matrix.
My opinion life is getting better (pandemic aside).
In fact life is so positive, media outlets have to pull out all the stops to find something outrageous and incendiary for you to click on. Cable news will play the same anxiety inducing clip from news from hundreds of miles away that have nothing to do with our lives.
In the recent past tons of horrifying stuff happened that would not get commented on. It would stay in local news as a local issue. We are now far more aware of what’s happening in distant places for better or worse.
In fact because lives are so positive, we can now focus on these problems, whereas in the past they’d just go undiscussed.
I think the next decade is going to suck, but those who survive it are going to have a far more robust supply chain, a better work/life balance, and more equitable taxes.
Capability based security should be the norm in a decade, and people will be able to just run random shit without risking their computers once again. This will allow the flourishing of small web sites that are currently shunned because of stranger danger. This will lead to less centralization of censorship.
We'll come to a collective decision about omnipresent surveillance, so the ghosts of Orwell won't be haunting us. I for one and ok with it, as long as some randomly chosen citizens get to watch the watchers, on a constant ongoing basis.
If it exists, the breakaway civilization inside the black projects world should be revealing some pretty awesome technology to save the planet, by making energy cheap and clean, any day now.
Work life balance has come back into focus as something we all deserve.
The tl;dr of that is that the world is getting better at a rate that's almost impossible to believe. In fact, it is impossible to believe, which is why so many people don't. It explores the psychology of that a bit.
200 years from now, when the average American is incalculably richer than Elon Musk is today, we'll still be having this conversation. Or capitalism may have ended and the phrase "richer than Elon Musk" may not mean anything. Or we may all be uploaded to the central core. I don't know, but if I had to bet, it'll be better regardless.
Climate change is admittedly a pretty nasty problem. But we have lots of solutions (geoengineering); it's just a matter of whether we give up on the idea that this particular crisis is the end of capitalism in time to use them.
Housing is my biggest concern. Unfortunately I have no idea where I want to live, and all the cities are just not appealing to me. I have found like minded people on the west coast of the us but not really ran into similar types in the years I spent inland. So I don’t really know. I want to find a place where I feel at home, because I own a home there and feel like I’m actually part of the community.
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[ 3.4 ms ] story [ 49.5 ms ] threadWhat are some of the things you are seeing becoming progressively worse?
Political polarization is worse than it was.
Wealth inequality is worse than it was. Economic opportunity for the lower and lower middle classes is worse than it was.
I don't buy the "climate change is going to destroy everything" pessimism. I don't buy "covid forever, we'll never return to normal" either, though it can start to feel like that. But there are some things that are legitimately getting worse, and they're concerning.
The only real trick is figuring out when to retire somewhere tropical. I’d say hold out until the prime rate goes to 2% or debt to GDP reaches 150%, sell enough to cover your debt and ride it out in Margaritaville.
I'm sorry, I try to be charitable, but this guy reads like a well-written National Review comments section nutter.
I'm in the pessimistic camp too, but the quasi-Stalinist revolution this guy sees coming seems profoundly unlikely.
I think I only agree in part. If this is an accurate picture of what's going on, though, the "elite" effort is doomed, because as the pie shrinks the masses are going to become increasingly resistant to the elites wasting resources on make-work programs for their allies.
And, that question at the end? The only politician I can see that could pull off such a thing is Trump. He would do it on behalf of a different set of elites, though - ones with less structural power than the regular set. (And one could guess that the incredible hostility of the establishment elites toward Trump was caused by him threatening their gravy train.)
Miami might be able to keep rising tides at bay for 50 years but Oregon, Washington, Colorado, and California won’t be able to do much about heat and wildfire smoke. Arizona and Nevada might not be so bad because they’re built for the heat already.
Climate change is something humans missed their chance to fix decades ago. Now we’re getting set to pay the bill that’s already due. We have to pretend like we’ve still got a chance to “solve” it because the alternative (admitting it’s a lost cause) is just too sad.
Are you talking creature comforts? Physical "stuff"? Are you talking basic services (e.g., clean water)? Or what about liberty and privacy vs perception of safety? Or what about social mobility and income inequality?
If you value liberty and privacy then odds are worse is most likely. If you value comfort and consuming "stuff" then the system will continue to do its best to stroke you and coddle you.
There are broader improvements (e.g., more ppl die from too much food than not enough). But all in all we're headed for The Matrix.
In fact life is so positive, media outlets have to pull out all the stops to find something outrageous and incendiary for you to click on. Cable news will play the same anxiety inducing clip from news from hundreds of miles away that have nothing to do with our lives.
In the recent past tons of horrifying stuff happened that would not get commented on. It would stay in local news as a local issue. We are now far more aware of what’s happening in distant places for better or worse.
In fact because lives are so positive, we can now focus on these problems, whereas in the past they’d just go undiscussed.
Capability based security should be the norm in a decade, and people will be able to just run random shit without risking their computers once again. This will allow the flourishing of small web sites that are currently shunned because of stranger danger. This will lead to less centralization of censorship.
We'll come to a collective decision about omnipresent surveillance, so the ghosts of Orwell won't be haunting us. I for one and ok with it, as long as some randomly chosen citizens get to watch the watchers, on a constant ongoing basis.
If it exists, the breakaway civilization inside the black projects world should be revealing some pretty awesome technology to save the planet, by making energy cheap and clean, any day now.
Work life balance has come back into focus as something we all deserve.
The tl;dr of that is that the world is getting better at a rate that's almost impossible to believe. In fact, it is impossible to believe, which is why so many people don't. It explores the psychology of that a bit.
https://fee.org/articles/average-americans-today-are-richer-...
200 years from now, when the average American is incalculably richer than Elon Musk is today, we'll still be having this conversation. Or capitalism may have ended and the phrase "richer than Elon Musk" may not mean anything. Or we may all be uploaded to the central core. I don't know, but if I had to bet, it'll be better regardless.
Climate change is admittedly a pretty nasty problem. But we have lots of solutions (geoengineering); it's just a matter of whether we give up on the idea that this particular crisis is the end of capitalism in time to use them.