APPL to go lower (than 3%)

Disclaimer: this is just for fun: I'm not putting myself up as a serious analyst.

That said... APPL is down 3% before opening. I reckon there's no way APPL only loses 3% on Steve Job's resignation. For the following reasons:

1/ how much does Steve's presence at keynotes etc., his legendary charisma and magnetism contribute to the Apple brand? I doubt it's quantifiable, but if you pick a number, I doubt it's under 3%.

2/ History: the last time Steve's hands came off the Apple wheel, things didn't end so well. The company became aimless and disjointed, nearly died. Granted, he will still be around (for the moment at least). Granted, Tim Cook has been de-facto ruler for the past year or so. Granted, the 'succession plan' has been in the works for a long time. But are we really ~97% sure that the new guy will have the same success as the old guy? Even ignoring this corporation's history. Are we REALLY that sure??

3/ This move is not 'factored in'... well... maybe it is. As I say, I'm not an analyst or anything so I don't know. But this stock has been rocketing year after year: how could anyone know whether this development is truly factored in.

Seems to me a 3% drop does NOT reflect the new reality for APPL. Thoughts?