Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
Just curious what kind of predictions you have for the upcoming years 2022, 2023, 2024.
I think the obvious one would be the EV wars. Also the delayed shipping dates for those vehicles. IE: If you order an EV truck now you wont get it until 2024.
Hopefully staying remote and rent not going up, but one can only hope...
272 comments
[ 2.8 ms ] story [ 288 ms ] threadHigher stock market even though everyone keeps calling it a bubble
More inflation, but not as much gain in the CPI as 2021
Strong GDP growth, same for corporate profits
Big tech gets bigger; Facebook, Tesla , Amazon, Google Microsoft stock keep going up.
No anti-trust action against big tech companies
No bursting of 'higher ed bubble' despite Covid
US dollar continues to be strong
Bezos, Musk remain richest men alive
Biden wealth tax fails
Fed raises rates maybe twice; bond market and stock market unperturbed
Higher real estate prices in spite of insistence of it being a bubble
More political division and unrest online, people are angrier than ever at each other online
Covid never goes away although daily case counts will remain below 2021 highs
Do you mean students will keep taking on debt to go to school? Or tuition prices will keep going up? Or both?
- The fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates low. This means we will have another year of rapidly rising asset prices.
- Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s.
- Crypto will undergo a major crash in 2022. It follows predictable, cyclical patterns, and we are nearing the end of the classic boom/bust cycle. It is unclear whether this will cause the Tether situation to blow up.
- Mainly due to supply issues, we won't get a taste of any AR/VR metaverse type stuff next year. There will be a lot of hype-laden news articles about it, but nobody will actually live this future yet.
- Nothing will happen in China with Evergrande or any of these other companies. Nor will China invade Taiwan (yet).
- The "lie-flat" movement massively picks up. People don't realize how widespread this sentiment is in Gen Z, which doesn't need excessive consumerism to be happy, all they need is a computer. It is unclear what effects this will have on the economy.
Due to this, GOP is probably going to retake the house largely because people won't realize that the inflation has little to do with Democrats policies but is entirely because of COVID fucking everything.
I digress, I don't like either party's policies because every law enacted is a little bit more of your freedom taken away and the crazy printing of money is just another tax on the American people. States and cities are making out like bandits with this inflation.
This is a pretty standard cycle in American politics. One party wins the presidency and the house, then the house flips in the midterm. The senate doesn't follows these trends because of how their terms work.
[Edit] I found the 40% number in a news article but it didn't have sources. You can view the M1 money supply chart here, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=M1SL. This chart shows why we are seeing higher levels of inflation.
That's what the U.S. government needs. $29 trillion in debt paying $417 billion in interest per year = average interest of 1.43%.
Now imagine average interest rate across the curve goes to 2.86% and now we're paying $834 billion in interest per year.
Then it goes to 5% and we're paying $1.45 trillion in interest payments per year. That's over a third of the total tax revenue of the Federal government! More than we spend on defense!
The U.S. government is so far in debt that it needs inflation to erase it. Nothing else will.
So no surprise, the Federal Reserve balance sheet has grown to $8.5 trillion:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttren...
The Fed continues to buy $120 billion in bonds per month, interest rates are close to zero, we're mailing checks out to people each month, we just approved $1 trillion in stimulus a few weeks ago and on the cusp of approving almost $2 trillion more.
The actual addition to the federal budget isn’t that dramatic.
If you paid $1 per second, it would take you:
12 days to spend $1 million
32 years to spend $1 billion
32,000 years to spend $1 trillion
Imagine spending $1 every second for 32,000 years. It's ridiculous! Yet we throw that number around like it "isn't that dramatic". We will never be able to pay off that borrowed money! And it will work until it doesn't. And then we will wish we were never so foolish.
If you just want to throw large numbers around, why not just convert everything into cents? Imagine spending 1 cent per second for 3.2 million years! That’s a long time.
Comparing things on the scale of the national budget of the country with the world's largest economy to things on individual scale is kind of like comparing a person's height to the radius of the moon. It's going to confuse more than it elucidates.
Edit: To be clear, my comparison is bad too. Comparison to individuals is just not the type of tool that makes sense for looking at national level things, because by cherry picking the comparison you can convince it to say anything you want.
No, this is not right at all. The total income of the United States government is $4 trillion per year. So a $1 trillion loan is 25% of gross annual income. The $3 trillion being added to the debt is 75% of gross annual income.
GDP is not the income of the United States government. But this new debt will be debt of the United States government.
The reality is that we are $29 trillion in debt now and adding to it rapidly. That is 7.25 years of gross income in debt. What would you say to someone that made $100,000 per year and was in debt $725,000?
If you're trying to make a comparison with an individual, you'd need to come up with such an analogy. Gross income isn't it.
Congress has 1 job to balance the budget…and they have fucked it up since WW2, yet the still get unlimited terms, full pay, full benefits and full pensions.
Just googling I found floating rate notes, which seem to respond like an adjustable mortgage would. But they seem small and short term.
But I do understand we have a deficit and have to sell more treasuries every year.
Maybe that would be a driver to have a more even budget.
But from my perspective Dems pass policy that a large % of the country likes. Raise taxes to pay for it. Republicans then win election and repeal and cut taxes but leave said popular policy. next Dem majority raises taxes but probably not even above the baseline before Rs cut it (e.g. the current draft reconciliation bill doesn't actually raise taxes much at all. it's crazy to me how cheap some of this stuff is when you take legit CBO scored credit for instance not handing out billions to pharma)
https://www.sifma.org/resources/research/us-treasury-securit...
During the previous admin, there was talk of issuing a 100 year bond while rates were so low in order to reduce some of this risk, but nothing ever materialized. I'm not sure if this idea is on the present administration's radar at all.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-mnuchin-idUSK...
Crypto and stocks seem to be correlated at this point. Both are considered risk on assets by institutional buyers. I don't anticipate crypto to crash unless stocks start to crash. If the Fed keeps interest rates low and assets continue to rise, I think it's likely that crypto continues to rise as well. From what I've heard, there is likely to be heavy institutional buying in Q1 2022 as hedge funds and others who like to take risk will add risky assets at the start of the year.
A bunch of folks from the Man Group and Campbell Harvey published a paper saying that Bitcoin specifically seems to have a positive beta with the US market:
> Finally, we are in the midst of another technological disruption in the form of the cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin. Some have advocated the inclusion of bitcoin into a diversified portfolio as an inflation protection asset. However, caution is warranted given that bitcoin is untested with only eight years of quality data – that lack a single inflation regime. Moreover, bitcoin is more than five times more volatile than the S&P 500 or gold. This high volatility could lead to bitcoin being an unreliable hedge. In addition, there is increasing evidence that bitcoin is a speculative asset and it has a positive beta against the US market.
* https://www.man.com/maninstitute/when-inflation-hits
* https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3813202
It's still early days, so more evidence certainly needs to be gathered, but so far as a hedge against inflation crypto doesn't look too good (especially because of volatility).
And Campbell published a pro-DeFi book recently, so it's not like he's against crypto generally:
* https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/57720429-defi-and-the-fu...
* https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3711777
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campbell_Harvey
1 crypto crash, stocks rise
2 crypto rise, stocks rise
3 crypto crash, stocks fall
4 crypto rise, stocks fall
I think #4 is least likely
this is describing a world geopolitical situation that would rival the cold war imho.
- Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s.
- Crypto will undergo a major crash in 2022. It follows predictable, cyclical patterns, and we are nearing the end of the classic boom/bust cycle. It is unclear whether this will cause the Tether situation to blow up.
If the first 2 happen, then I do not think crypto will crash. I'm fairly sure the reason it blew up this year was a combination of people being bored at home because of lockdown and people trying to protect against inflation.
Edit because I was downvoted:
This genuinely goes against my intuition. The recommended alternatives were housing, food (don't know if the parent meant stock up on nonperishables or buy farmland & livestock), and equipment. This sounded like preparing for complete economic collapse. If that's the level of inflation we're talking about, then we have much bigger things to worry about than how crypto will be doing.
Has outperformed gold the last decade.
When I moved, someone at my old office said, "How can you stand to live in a state represented by Senator X?" I told him, "When Senator X picks up my dry cleaning or valets my car, I'll care. Until then, Senator X has zero bearing on my everyday life."
I think people overestimate the weight that politics plays in selecting a place to live.
What may seem to be manufactured to you can affect people unlike you in tangible ways.
I get that a ton of poeple don't like politics in the sense of grandstanding politicians, debates on social issues that don't go anywhere, flame wars on FB, etc.
But the actual governments, fed state down to local have a huge impact on virtually everything we do in our daily lives. And in the US it's almost all politics. We aren't are less of a technocracy (idk if that's the correct term?) and not an authoritarian state.
Roads, pipes to bring water, sewer treatment, schools, healthcare (both subsidized and also the regulations on for profit insurance holders), cars, the food we eat, gas for our cars, etc etc etc. And oftentimes it's the smallest level politics that have the largest impact; city council & school board.
Maybe the internet might still be one of the largest still under regulated / touched by govt $ policy we have left.
Where have you been the past two years?
"par for the course"
We have different measures of normalcy or different news sources.
I'm quite happy to bet that inflation over the next year will be no more than 10%. I'd even take 5% at good odds. If it does hit that, it will do incredible things for my fixed-rate mortgage as well as my portfolio. No, I do not have significant "cash" savings.
Otherwise I agree with your predictions. There may well be a crypto boom or two to go with the busts.
If we lock down in 2022, what's to stop another lockdown in 2024 and in 2026 etc.? Imagine the mental health implications, especially on children and teenagers, whose entire childhood would be altered by covid. Imagine "who knows if we're going to have Christmas this year? We have to see the forecast for cases and hospitalizations", every year for every special event. People will celebrate Christmas and hang out and go to huge events or they will literally go insane.
Also, there would be massive supply chain issues like you said. Possibly big enough to actually kill people. So now we have to actually weigh the casualties of lockdown vs the casualties of a virus.
It was different in 2020. The lockdown in 2020 was designed to be short-term. It was also much more serious, because we had no idea just how dangerous covid was, and we actually had a chance of eradicating the disease entirely. That's why we could shut-down schools, cancel events planned years in advance, make court appointments virtual, and otherwise significantly alter critical parts of society.
And even then, even in early 2020, there was a not-so-small vocal minority of people (idiots) who refused to believe covid existed.
That's not to say we'll do nothing and assume covid is over. I do believe society can adjust to "stay safe" in the long-term with routine vaccination, mask-wearing in public spaces, and just being aware that covid exists. Also things like WVH and online classes (for those who want to take online) are here to stay. But people are not going to follow a "new normal" where every social interaction is weighed against the virus.
Over time mask wearing will fade away. With luck the annual covid vaccination will be be free (and mandatory for many occupations) and it will be combined with an annual flu shot, and under-12s will get it also.
(Super cynical remark: for a decade or more policy wonks have been agonising about the coming "tsunami" of healthcare needs as the Boomers age, and the political pressure to provide that care--Boomers know how to vote! I think that government planners secretly won't be too unhappy that covid takes out some of the sickest, most high-need elders.)
https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/overview-of-tmc-icu-...
People still have their Big Macs and Netflix, they will seethe in relative silence while they're smothered.
I want to believe that the pandemic will move some health systems away from almost just-in-time lean resourcing towards having more unused capacity to soak up shocks without being overwhelmed. I predict a single step in that direction for 2022.
So yes, I very much expect this "prediction" to be more like continuing current news.
At this point covid is a manufactured crisis used by governments as a power grab over citizens freedom, and pharmaceutical groups to get magic money. This has to stop. The lives of young people, who need to study, socialize, meet a partner, start a career are heavily negatively impacted by all those measures taken to save a few retired people that already did all those things. This is profoundly injust. Scared of covid? Then fine, do a personal lockdown but don't ask for the whole society and human interactions to stop for this. People would barely notice it's existence (like in Africa) if the media weren't speaking about it.
I wish that were true. But I live in Austria (Europe) and there is a full lockdown starting tomorrow (Monday). Officially it's just going to be for a few weeks, but that's what they said every time before, and it always got extended before, so I don't have any reason to suspect this time will be different. I imagine (but I could be wrong) that it'll extend into 2022.
Perhaps it'll just be limited to Austria, but generally in the past when one country went into a lockdown other countries were in a lockdown a few weeks or a month later...
The (demand-pull) inflation of the 1970s started because there was many years of war spending because of the Vietnam War. Once that wound down, then there was (supply-push) inflation of OPEC's oil embargo.
What we're seeing now is a sudden spike because of concentrated spending, much like happened due to the Korea War, where inflation lasted between 12-18 months:
* https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/in...
The Chinese economy is deeply dependent on real estate for GDP and tax revenue growth and appetite and liquidity is at an all time low.
My layman's understanding is that these companies are going to go bankrupt. The Chinese govt could easily solve the problem by simply bailing them out, but they haven't yet. But I think in the end China will just bail the companies out, and nothing will come of it.
However if you want to hear what I think is a really well stated case for why China's housing problem is more structural than it might appear on the surface I encourage you to check out this bit regarding how China's local governments utilize property prices via LGFVs to do off balance sheet financing off it's social security system and really it's entire economy. If you find it interesting the whole video and the whole 4 part series is really worth a watch:
Housing Crisis — China's Reckoning (Part 2):
https://youtu.be/EgVXRtq5EIg?t=1045
I recommend you to change it to 2x speed.
The reason Evergrande plays into this is not directly a Lehman like systemtic solvency issue IMO, it's a consumer confidence problem which indirectly leads to solvency issue. Regular Chinese citizens are seeing other regular Chinese citizens who pre paid on Evergrand units losing their shirts. Data already show's that housing demand and prices are already way down from pre Evergrande issues.
I would argue if this translates into failures in the local government land auctions, China is basically instantly in a solvency crisis, which, it can deal with, but which will have major consequences.
- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and booster vaccines will follow. Most countries will restrict lockdowns only for the unvaccinated, as everyone accepts the “new normal”
- The fed will keep interest rates low, but it won’t matter, as inflation picks up, earnings get slammed and stocks will either crash or trend completely sideways.
- Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by China economy deceleration. Inflation will remain higher than we’ve seen in the past decade, but with a slowdown in consumption, will not go into hyperinflation levels.
- Crypto will NOT undergo a major crash in 2022, contradicting the consensus it’s crashing any minute now. The large volume of “staked” coins and the Futurization of Bitcoin will prevent a full on crash, but will also prevent further 100x runs (at least for next year)
- AR/VR metaverse type stuff will go big next year, from Apple to multiple Chinese brands launching their products. No megahit product will be announced though, and Apple’s entrant will get the same muted initial adoption the Apple Watch did (and be equally prototype-y)
- China will officially start its perma-recession era, just like Japan in the 80s. China won’t invade Taiwan (yet).
- GenZ digital consumerism remains on the rise, with the first series of Fortnite-exclusive Yeezys selling millions of copies. Robux credit cards get introduced, becoming one of the main forms of “banking” for many teens. The Digital Objects economy will start to get mainstream hype
This is a serious symptom that is being swept under the rug. Efforts needs to be put in to better understand the issue and enforce steps to resolve it.
I lack the basic training in trying to understand the issue - sociology, psychology or whatever is the relevant field. But I feel that "lie-flat" is just an acute variant of the general issue - "checking out of reality". The other versions are "staying in echo chambers" and being incapable of even listening to different views. "Getting lost in other worlds" - the gamers that spend whole day in games like Fortnite or always flipping through videos in tik tok.
It isn't a problem until there aren't enough people working, and too many people are 'lying flat', so much so that there's not enough food or necessities being produced and you get mass starvation.
The lie-flat movement came about in response to the 996. Workers realized they were being worked to death in factories for little pay and opportunities to climb up society's ladder dried up. The older generation sees it as laziness but if you look at it from their perspective, its a natural conclusion. The only people that benefits from being overworked, little pay, and few opportunities are the owners (i.e. the older generation and their offspring). Both the lie-flat and 996 are two extreme ends of the same spectrum.
I disagree that they are checking out of reality. I think they are looking at the reality of their economic situation and making a logical conclusion. They realized they could earn more per hour basis by working less and being more happy.
It is very much the same situation happening right now in the US. Blue collar workers realize they no longer want to work as waiters, and rather spend time leveling up and becoming white collar. You have all these restaurant owners calling these people lazy while ignoring the fact they hardly pay a living wage.
The rest of the galaxy scratches their...whatevers...wondering why the humans throw down their tools and rush to work for the invaders.
Some of the longevity trials will show significant reduction of epigenetic age in humans. I am almost sure that TRIIM-X will. That is pretty close to the first flight of the Wright brothers, only in the anti-aging field.
During the next 10 or so years, all the debt-fueled spending is going to bite us back hard.
We might have a new round of Yellow Vests in Europe if consumer prices of electricity and fuels go up again. If such protests really happen, governments will crack down on social networks heavy-handedly.
The digital giants will open up their app stores voluntarily to escape antitrust prosecution.
that's like saying it will happen eventually, which is not that helpful or useful of a prediction
I am afraid they won't, but even then the curve may vary a lot.
I know this isn't a very good prediction. The only thing that bothers me is that the contemporary ruling class seems to operate as if the borrowing could go on forever.
Italian lira was weak and Italians used to buy a lot of property. Until today, an average Italian family has much more real estate than an average German family.
Polish zloty went into a tailspin in the late 1980s and early 1990s. In 1995, they decided to start again and remove four zeros off the new zloty. IDK what happened to all the debt held in non-zlotys.
Edit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7ok5AV7ZrM
Return to office will tick up more than expected
City -> Suburbs/Rural will revert back to pre-covid trend of Suburbs/Rural -> City
https://twitter.com/tomazstolfa/status/1454441367359430663
Remote work is here to stay.
Rents go up as over-leveraged landlords will have to pay back rising interest rates (QE is tapering already now).
Climate issues, real and not so real, will be used to achieve the control agenda of established power in the same way the pandemic was.
The culture wars will continue humming away in the foreground, distracting us from our declining quality of life and the transfer of wealth from the lower and middle classes taking place before our eyes.
Overall, it will get worse as our current predicament perhaps needs to.
Are people currently not living in this housing? How much un-lived in property is there? I don't see much, if any, in Houston. But house purchase prices here still doubled in the past few years.
> Rents go up as over-leveraged landlords will have to pay back rising interest rates (QE is tapering already now).
I think these two contradict each other. Inflation is fake, but interest rates rise?
> Climate issues, real and not so real, will be used to achieve the control agenda of established power in the same way the pandemic was.
Yup.
There is going to be an excess supply shock in first quarter of q4. Most of the suppliers are over stocked up to such an extent and most 3PLs are over capacity and unable to take up any new clients.
And not sure how "fake" the inflation is. The cost of container from china was $1k before pandemic. Now its $10k-$20k. Though rates are falling back its not enough https://www.statista.com/statistics/1250636/global-container...
The inflation is not fake. It is being caused the but incredible amount of dollars that have been created in the last 2 years. There were $12 trillion added to the money supply in May 2020 alone, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL. Before May 2020 There were only $4.7 trillion in circulation in April 2020. This the text book case of inflation.
I often watch videos of people who drive with FSD for the first time. Those are the most intense reactions to a product I can remember.
If one day we wake up and see self driving cars all around us, we will start thinking about how the world will look like when everything is automated. This will be a huge challenge and adventure.
I think self driving cars only become safe when every vehicle is capable of self driving, and infrastructure is adapted accordingly.
happy to be proven wrong though!
And that is the feeling I get when I watch FSD videos these days.
5 years ago, people were celebrating lane changes:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7jNHFwZ3Ec
Nowadays, FSD drives through all kinds of weird scenarios:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LISLFHCPWrw
And people complain about specific situations FSD can not handle:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OT2H42k7Z1g
I'm pretty sure someone at Tesla sees this and thinks "Hmm.. we can solve this in a similar way we solved lane changes".
* A large earthquake (>6) in the SF Bay Area.
* COVID cases will reduce but not enough to rescind mask-wearing rules.
* A large "stablecoin" will crash but the crypto market will (unfortunately, probably) recover reasonably quickly.
* The NFT craze will not persist.
* In the US, the GOP will make significant political gains primarily through gerrymandering.
It will be impossible to not talk about the future of the monarchy when she dies, next year or in 2028. It would be BBC's duty to report extensively on it.
In a lot of the US there aren't really mask requirements anymore outside of maybe hospitals. I moved to Seattle from Utah recently and the change in attitudes is pretty astonishing.
Could you be more specific here? What's the difference in attitudes between Seattle and Utah?
Prices and employment stabilize as the Fed tapers QE.
TikTok launches new Metaverse product.
Biden steps down to allow for Kamala to take over.
Lebron James wins one final NBA championship and retires. Patriots return to win the Super Bowl and Alabama wins another College football championship.
I second this. Although I wonder if it will be Biden stepping down or the 25th Amendment being enacted. I think Kamala takes over after the mid-term elections. Her current poll numbers would necessitate them waiting at least until then.
GPT-4 or another huge language model like it will be released, and we will see diminishing returns continue to plateau.
Graph-based approaches in NLP will continue to grow in significance, with KGs, ontologies, and semantic graphs seeing growing adoption for their interpretability.
Model robustness in ML will probably remain a significant obstacle to productionization, holding back use-cases that need high reliability e.g. self-driving and front-facing chatbots.
Reinforcement Learning may see increased research focus for applications in NLP and user interaction.
It was my understanding that GPT-3 showed pretty well that the returns are not dimishing but rather surprisingly still scaling along with data rather nicely.
- A new social media company starts to gain traction. Because that's what happens every few years.
- People start unloading their streaming subscriptions when they realize that for many people, they cost more than cable or satellite. But rather than go back to the other delivery methods, they just consume less video. Streaming companies start to cannibalize one another, and set up for merging.
- My wife will continue to complain about her neck pain, but refuse to stop scrolling through Instagram hunched over on the toilet. She will continue to try to hide this from me.
Over the couple of years we lived there, we discovered they weren't even all that rich... but they sure will be. They own the house they live in, and rent out their other houses. It started with them renting out a house to help pay their mortgage, and then they found ways to accumulate mortgages for more homes.
Clever but I suspect they were stressed out pretty big time, too. If any one of them failed, it would collapse in full domino style. But if it works (and it surely will), they retire fully owning 11 properties in their name, for whatever they might want to do with them.
My grandmother’a brother bough 2 buildings in the same neighborhood in the early 90s for even less and had them fully paid off by 2000. Each one was making him 20k a month before he sold them for >3 million to developers who will come in and jack up rents by 50-100% on the old people that have been living there the past 15-20 years.
At least one company (probably Apple) will exceed $4T market cap, current >$1T companies will all pass at least one more trillion milestone. No new companies will break $1T besides those already there.
Tax rules will come into effect across Europe rendering crypto/NFTs unattractive. The market will crash then rebound, but coin values will end up roughly where they are right now.
Russian troops will be invited into Belarus to formally support defence efforts, increasing tension with the EU.
The Nord Stream 2 pipeline will become operational, but only after rocketing gas prices stir minor unrest in western Europe.
Chinese naval aggression will lead to a war of words with Japan but no direct conflict, but at least one weaker neighbour will lose fishermen or naval personnel in a small skirmish. The international community will continue to do nothing.
Taiwanese airspace will be entered by Chinese jets at least once a month, but no shots will be fired.
Genome sequencing will become an "optional" way to "reduce" health insurance premiums in the US. Sequencing of the wider population in Europe will be explored in more detail than previously, but not progress due to privacy debates.
Very interesting, transfer of such a financial liability as Scotland from UK to EU may even offset at least some of the Brexit damage! Followed by more Pikachu faces, but under different flags.
The stars are gonna spell out the answers to tomorrow's crosswords And the Phillips Corporation will admit that they've made an awful mistake And Bill Gates will single-handedly spearhead the Heaven 17 revival And the Chicago Cubs will beat every team in the league And the Tampa Bay Bucs will take it all the way to the top
And I will love you again I will love you like I used to
This will mark a turning point in the US-China tech war.