Going earlier has the advantage of fighting a 79 year old POTUS before he dies like the Soviet era elderly leader of the Communist Party. Fighting and winning through all of the winter will go down well in the history books, forever.
If the Ukraine defense agency chief said it, 5 gets you 10 it won't happen.
Apart from that, why the fuck would anybody attack in the appalling conditions of late January? When the Russians attack, they move in Late November-Early December.
Just look on a map. Yelnya is halfway between Minsk and Moscow, in Smolensk oblast.
It's on the approach to Moscow if you are invading, and where some of the hardest fighting between the Red Army and the Wehrmacht took place, defending the capital.
Not quite exactly "on the border of Ukraine, ready to invade Kiev" (that would be around Belgorod, Briansk, Voronez, Koursk), more like "ready to intervene in case of the kerfuffle betwen Minsk and Warsaw escalates".
This is pure posturing by Ukraine, so people forget they'll freeze for lack of Russian and anybody else's gas this winter.
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[ 4.9 ms ] story [ 19.9 ms ] threadApart from that, why the fuck would anybody attack in the appalling conditions of late January? When the Russians attack, they move in Late November-Early December.
The build up of troops is however undeniable:
"Satellite images show new Russian military buildup near Ukraine" https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/01/satellite-russia-uk...
It's on the approach to Moscow if you are invading, and where some of the hardest fighting between the Red Army and the Wehrmacht took place, defending the capital.
Not quite exactly "on the border of Ukraine, ready to invade Kiev" (that would be around Belgorod, Briansk, Voronez, Koursk), more like "ready to intervene in case of the kerfuffle betwen Minsk and Warsaw escalates".
This is pure posturing by Ukraine, so people forget they'll freeze for lack of Russian and anybody else's gas this winter.