Ask HN: Do You Like Stocks Crypto or Precious Metals for 2022?
The stock markets have treated me quite well the last couple years but recently I have been feeling nervous.
I like the concept of crypto but do not have a strong understanding of it beyond the general ideas. In some ways I wonder how many people really know what is going on, very similar to the pre 2008 derivatives market build up.
I do like shiny things but am concerned that my current bullish mindset of precious metal might have more to do with being brainwashed to a certain extent from the media and advertising systems pushing that content to me.
So I was hoping I could humbly ask the YC community members to share their opinions on investing in one, two or all three of these market spaces.
As with anything regarding predicting the future there are no right or wrong answers and I understand any comments are opinions and not financial advice.:\
Thanks
20 comments
[ 19.4 ms ] story [ 2941 ms ] threadEG: My first profitable venture on my homestead was laying hens, I built my own coop and converted an existing dilapidated green house into a run. The materials required to construct and convert cost me ~ $1500 and then the purchase of brooding equipment, waterers, feeders, and chicks ran me another $1000 or so. All in I would say it cost $3500 Dollars and 6 months before I saw my 1st egg and another two years before my hens were hatching out new chicks. I currently make around $100/month profit through farm gate egg sales at $5 a dozen and have a never ending supply of fresh eggs for myself...but that took almost 4 years from my initial investment plus the daily work of egg collection and watering. I am still looking at another two or three years before I break even not including labor, barring any unexpected expenses.
Don't even get me started with my Honeybee operation!!!
My point is yes self sufficient homesteading is my goal but without the investments I made into the markets, the money wouldn't have been available. In my case I was able to grow my "off farm" investments while drawing on their profits to finance my "on farm ventures" which required time to turn profitable. Unfortunately I think those times are over and it is time to reevaluate my holdings before I find myself draining their principal value to fund my living.
5% of the public hunts. My guess is, should society collapse, there will be plenty of work cleaning up the bodies as millions go nuts in shock and kill themselves at home before a civil war can get off the ground.
More optimistically it’ll be like 9/11, NY blackouts; shock, awe, but people settle down and figure it out.
Who knows, maybe this is all embedded paranoia from the Cold War era and complete social collapse is impossible.
Local urban areas will surely clamp down and secure infra. Going it alone in the woods seems like a fine recipe for just putting the gun in your own mouth eventually.
2. Crypto.
3. That's it. And I don't even like crypto.
If you're taking the prepper stuff seriously, you need to cut it out as soon as possible.
Eg. In 1880, 20 Dollars would buy a weekend stay at a nice hotel, a new suit and a steak dinner. If that 20 dollars was in the form of a 20 dollar gold coin(which could be bought for 20 Dollars in 1880) that same gold coin could buy all three things today and at any other point in time over the last 140 years.
I find it hard to dismiss that argument.
- Precious metals aren't the only hedge against inflation (stocks work in the same way but with higher gains over time).
For you I'd advise NTSX and chill.
This isn't financial advice.
But I'd hold ETH/BTC/LRC/MATIC in equal portions right now.
I’ve been investing in the market since I graduated college many, many, many years ago. Over time, the market has gone up reaching new highs.
Every few years I felt like it was overvalued. More recently, I remember looking at my portfolio in 2015 and thinking it was overvalued and bound to crash. In Nov 2017, I felt the same way. In 2019, I was in a meeting with a manager at my company and somehow the stock market came up. We agreed it had grown too much and was due for a significant correction.
In March/April 2020 I had friends who panic sold during COVID.
I follow a few personal finance websites, and there’s a story every few weeks or months about someone predicting a collapse.
My strategy hasn’t changed at all. I’ve been purchasing VTSAX every month for many, many years now.
IMO Crypto is a ponzi scheme that is simultaneously hurting the environment. Others feel differently. The only real value I've seen come out of crypto beyond making illegal activity easier is immigrants from El Salvador can now send money home without fees.
Ray Dalio has an interesting "all weather" portfolio for capital preservation regardless of what the market does, part of which holds precious metals. Beyond that, metals and commodities are speculation IMO.
If you are nervous and want to sleep better at night, just adjust your asset allocation to be more bond heavy (ex. 65/35 stocks/bonds). Thanks to inflation, TIPS are killing it this year. Also, max out your Ibonds if you haven't already.