"At least 16 U.S. states have reported Omicron cases: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Utah, Washington and Wisconsin, according to a Reuters tally.
Many of the cases were among fully vaccinated individuals with mild symptoms, although the booster shot status of some patients was not reported.
Despite several dozen Omicron cases, the Delta variant still accounts for 99.9% of new COVID cases in the United States, CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky told ABC News in an interview."
>> the Delta variant still accounts for 99.9% of new COVID cases in the United States
ourworldindata.org reports, as-of 6 December 2021, the share of analyzed sequences in the last two weeks that correspond to omicron is 14% in the USA and 10% in Canada. (https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus)
Did Dr Wallensky give any hints about the source of her statistic, if it was based on analyzed sequences, or over what observation period it was derived?
Why the big difference in estimates of the present significance of omicron?
One possible skewing factor is that suspect omicron cases can often be determined by just looking at the PCR, so these probably get priority for sequencing. If the US generally isn't doing very much random sequencing, this is about what you'd expect.
We're in the middle of a pandemic caused by a virus that is plausibly theorized to dwell, reproduce, and mutate at higher rates in immunocompromised populations. In addition, the course of the disease tends to be drastically worse for immunocompromised individuals. It's a bit of a mystery that Southern African countries haven't been harder hit.
If you'd thought about this for just a moment without succumbing to knee-jerk emotion, this might have been obvious to you.
If you'd also have taken some time to think that an individual in the western world is more prone to the flu virus than a person in Sub-Saharan African is, you would understand where my concern arises from.
Your 'immunocompromised' score at this point in this pandemic is probably higher ( my assumption, happy to see numbers ) than an individual in SSA.
So again what exactly is the relevance of your point and do you know the difference between HIV and AIDS? Your claim that 1 in 5 people in South Africa has AIDS is just false and ignorant. You are using numbers of HIV for AIDS, which says a lot of your understanding of the difference between the two. Merry Christmas!
From everything I've heard, Omicron is much less dangerous than Delta or previous strands. Also, I've read that the Spanish flu ended with a fourth variant that was much milder than previous variants.
Assuming natural immunity is better than vaccine, and this variant is very mild, this is probably the one you want to get. What if boosters are being pushed at the worst possible time? With boosters you're less likely to get Covid, and what we've seen is that vaccines have a relatively short period in which they are effective. If you skip this variant, couldn't you get affected by a much less mild variant once the resistance wears off?
What am I missing here?
That being said, you should probably listen to your local authorities / doctors which are currently advocating everyone get a booster.
> “Unfortunately, we’re seeing a more than doubling of hospital admissions each day,” said Ian Sanne, an infectious diseases specialist who serves on South Africa’s COVID-19 presidential advisory committee.
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It would be wonderful news if this variant is milder than Alpha or Delta. But we don't actually have hard evidence of that yet. In a month or two, we'll probably know for sure.
EDIT: A lot of the variants follow this pattern. People think its milder, because there are more cases than there are hospitalizations. Then, 2 weeks later, the cases become more severe and everyone goes to the hospitals.
So we have to wait. Wait for these new patients, and see if they get better or worse. It takes time before the disease progress into hospitalization stage, and we've only had Omicron in the world for the past 2 weeks or so. Barely enough time for the first few patients to start to enter the hospital.
Hospital admissions does not mean deaths though and could be related to low vaccination and the quicker spread.
As far as I heard, omnicron settles more in the nose and less in the lunges => less deadly. This is not a certainty yet.
Source: doctor
Ps: yes. I had also a quote from another doctor which made it probable that it was going to be less deadly based on the large amount of mutations and history of viruses. Other doc, different situation, similar "hope". ( Mentioning just in case)
Additionally based on numbers from Africa: no more breathing devices, no deaths due to pure COVID, average hospital stay went to 2,5 days from 8,5 days.
I'm only cautious because of reinfection odds ( unclear for now)
>> Hospital admissions does not mean deaths though.
Omicron is spreading so quickly that in a few weeks there may be so many cases that if even 1% are hospitalized, the medical system is under worse stress than what has been hammering it for about 20 months now.
> Assuming natural immunity is better than vaccine
This is a big assumption. Both types of immunity have their advantages, but a study published by the CDC last month [1] suggests the vaccine provided more reliable immunity (against past strains). Meanwhile, Omicron is currently going around reinfecting tons of people in South Africa. It’s hard to guess how protective a vaccine or infection today might be against a future strain, but even if infection is better, it’s probably not much better. Meanwhile, it’s obviously much more dangerous in the present (even if Omicron might be a little milder than previous strains).
I can't believe the optimism! A pathogen that's 5 times more contagious and probably only half less lethal is actually 2.5 times more dangerous as it will kill more people as an absolute value! Not to mention the immune escape, which means that a lot of people who felt self as of last week are not safe anymore!
"probably only half less lethal" you're entire scenario is based on this nonsense. "Very mild symptoms". As of the weekend there were no hospitalisations in the UK. This is irrelevant.
Frankly I think the fact that there are no current known omicron hospitalizations in the uk this week is what is not relevant. It’s just too soon to make any conclusion about the severity of omicron from this data point.
Maybe it will bear out, but the oldest known omicron sample is only like a month old now. Hopefully it will turn out to be much less severe, but it just doesn’t seem like it’s been spreading for long enough in the uk (or anywhere really?) to know for sure yet
"5 times more contagious" isn't the same as "5 times as many people will be infected". Given your numbers, the new one is way more than 2.5 times more dangerous.
i have been told, that the "push for omicron" is a conspiratorial way of china to distance itself from C19. now its omicron from africa instead of covid from china.
34 comments
[ 5.0 ms ] story [ 275 ms ] thread"At least 16 U.S. states have reported Omicron cases: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Utah, Washington and Wisconsin, according to a Reuters tally.
Many of the cases were among fully vaccinated individuals with mild symptoms, although the booster shot status of some patients was not reported.
Despite several dozen Omicron cases, the Delta variant still accounts for 99.9% of new COVID cases in the United States, CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky told ABC News in an interview."
taken from the article
ourworldindata.org reports, as-of 6 December 2021, the share of analyzed sequences in the last two weeks that correspond to omicron is 14% in the USA and 10% in Canada. (https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus)
Did Dr Wallensky give any hints about the source of her statistic, if it was based on analyzed sequences, or over what observation period it was derived?
Why the big difference in estimates of the present significance of omicron?
If the virus has evolved into a more contagious milder version then this is excellent news.
Reason: Low vaccination (25%) and major spread.
But: no breathing devices required anymore, no fatalities related to purely omnicron and 8,5 days average hospital stay lowered to 2,5 days.
So "seems" much better. Main issue could be reinfection odds and effectiveness of vaccines depending on severity of the virus ( seems ok for now).
2) Check your facts, HIV is not AIDS.
1. Significant chunk of the population is immunocompromised, which is epidemiologically relevant in extrapolating disease severity.
2. HIV permanently reduces T-cell levels by 30% or so, even before AIDS kicks in. This happens during seroconversion.
Tactlessly delivered by GP though.
If you'd thought about this for just a moment without succumbing to knee-jerk emotion, this might have been obvious to you.
Your 'immunocompromised' score at this point in this pandemic is probably higher ( my assumption, happy to see numbers ) than an individual in SSA.
So again what exactly is the relevance of your point and do you know the difference between HIV and AIDS? Your claim that 1 in 5 people in South Africa has AIDS is just false and ignorant. You are using numbers of HIV for AIDS, which says a lot of your understanding of the difference between the two. Merry Christmas!
Assuming natural immunity is better than vaccine, and this variant is very mild, this is probably the one you want to get. What if boosters are being pushed at the worst possible time? With boosters you're less likely to get Covid, and what we've seen is that vaccines have a relatively short period in which they are effective. If you skip this variant, couldn't you get affected by a much less mild variant once the resistance wears off?
What am I missing here?
That being said, you should probably listen to your local authorities / doctors which are currently advocating everyone get a booster.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East_respiratory_syndro...
if the virus changes enough it can fit other protiens.
an example of this is comparison of mers with sars.
mers does not use ACE2, it uses DPP4.
the DPP4 is directly related to apoptosis [procedural death or "scuttling"]
disturbance of DPP4 causes very pathological state and often death of the cell
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dipeptidyl_peptidase-4
the mortality rate of mers was observed as 35% vs sars cov19 mortality in the range of 1 or 2 deaths per thousand
When it's extinct.
https://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet
Sure, one of these is more prevalent than the other but it becoming extinct seems unlikely to me unless something like an asteroid hits earth.
https://www.voanews.com/a/south-africa-readies-hospitals-as-...
> “Unfortunately, we’re seeing a more than doubling of hospital admissions each day,” said Ian Sanne, an infectious diseases specialist who serves on South Africa’s COVID-19 presidential advisory committee.
-------
It would be wonderful news if this variant is milder than Alpha or Delta. But we don't actually have hard evidence of that yet. In a month or two, we'll probably know for sure.
EDIT: A lot of the variants follow this pattern. People think its milder, because there are more cases than there are hospitalizations. Then, 2 weeks later, the cases become more severe and everyone goes to the hospitals.
So we have to wait. Wait for these new patients, and see if they get better or worse. It takes time before the disease progress into hospitalization stage, and we've only had Omicron in the world for the past 2 weeks or so. Barely enough time for the first few patients to start to enter the hospital.
As far as I heard, omnicron settles more in the nose and less in the lunges => less deadly. This is not a certainty yet.
Source: doctor
Ps: yes. I had also a quote from another doctor which made it probable that it was going to be less deadly based on the large amount of mutations and history of viruses. Other doc, different situation, similar "hope". ( Mentioning just in case)
Additionally based on numbers from Africa: no more breathing devices, no deaths due to pure COVID, average hospital stay went to 2,5 days from 8,5 days.
I'm only cautious because of reinfection odds ( unclear for now)
Omicron is spreading so quickly that in a few weeks there may be so many cases that if even 1% are hospitalized, the medical system is under worse stress than what has been hammering it for about 20 months now.
Omnicron, as it seems, will not suddenly make it rise. The contrary looks to be happening.
Hopefully humanity will survive that long. It is amazing that we, as a whole, made it this far without data.
This is a big assumption. Both types of immunity have their advantages, but a study published by the CDC last month [1] suggests the vaccine provided more reliable immunity (against past strains). Meanwhile, Omicron is currently going around reinfecting tons of people in South Africa. It’s hard to guess how protective a vaccine or infection today might be against a future strain, but even if infection is better, it’s probably not much better. Meanwhile, it’s obviously much more dangerous in the present (even if Omicron might be a little milder than previous strains).
[1] https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/2021103...
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29396717
Maybe it will bear out, but the oldest known omicron sample is only like a month old now. Hopefully it will turn out to be much less severe, but it just doesn’t seem like it’s been spreading for long enough in the uk (or anywhere really?) to know for sure yet