HN Explorer

Ask HN: What technologies will we still be using in 20 years?

12 points by jamestimmins ↗ HN
For example, I assume that in 20 years Python will still be popular, meaning that at least one of the existing web frameworks will still be popular. I suspect Postgres and SQLite will be in still, but MySQL will be out almost entirely. I presume Flask will fall by the wayside.

In your field, what do you think will still be in use and what will be either deprecated or just entirely out of favor by that point.

38 comments

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PaulHoule
I hate to say it but I think C and C++ will still be there.
tmaly
I came here to say the same thing. There is such a large code base of C, its hard to imagine it being replaced.

Just think of how much Cobol is still out there

ozzythecat
I agree. I’ve been getting more and more into rust. It’s actually very elegant and feels fun, but writing production code for anything serious has turned into a massive battle against the compiler and borrow checker. Learning curve is steep and I still struggle over a year later.
PaulHoule
What's depressing that many people who are struggling with Rust are struggling to write very simple things such as unix tools like 'cat' and 'grep'.

I write C code for AVR8 where the C calling conventions, the stack, etc. are a problem and not a solution. In my mind for relatively simple programs and I can split the program into a few clear layers and if I was writing assembler I could allocate some of the registers to some of the layers (e.g. limited or no flushing of registers in interrupt handlers) and statically allocate RAM ahead of time.

I never get around to switching to assembler because the AVR8 is a dead end and if I really want better performance I can recompile my C code to a much more capable ARM or ESP32.

When I was working on rule-based systems I had this idea of "rules and schemes" where the rules are kept separate from the "schemes" which determine how the rules are applied, what order, etc.

I've thought the idea of separating programs into a core and layers of commentary could be useful in various ways. For instance a language like Rust might have a proof that memory allocation works separate from the main part of the program.

brianhorakh
Rust is infectious, its well named. Once there is a rust interface its better, and not for nothing but wasm makes rust a true polyglot.

C++ is inferior, but also older and better known, easier to hire competent people TODAY. 20 years, c++ maintenance will be a big industry, but AI CODEX (combined with fuzzers and auto regression) could also probably accurately transpile & test a lot c++ accelerating this.

Rust is integral to the EXCITING aspects of the linux kernel such as ebpf w/ io-uring that will eat modern k8 and other ecosystems like a blackhole. These are billion dollar markets that will principally disappear due to the kernel abstracting & obviating the need for them. Companies will move on for the security aspect, unfortunately because new threats require attention.

Rust devs & shops will spend a a significantly smaller fraction of their time troubleshooting code in the field & on smaller more efficient devices and certainly have less security issues as well. C++ will still exist in 20 years, but will be not in vogue. Anybody who thinks rust is hard clearly hasnt attempted c++ imho.

Typescript, python will also remain popular for other reasons.

h2odragon
I think spoons are here to stay. "Air Fryers" not so much.
sanjayio
Have you used an Air Fryer? I find that it saves a ton of time and energy considering start up times and the space of an oven. Clean up is extremely easy as well.
muzani
I use the air fryer far more than the oven. It doesn't quite replace frying, but it's great for warming up everything and making old food crispy. It's a decent replacement for a toaster in some cases.
Graffur
Windows in some shape or form
openfuture
Lisp, prolog and forth.
tluyben2
The future is very bright then? But Java definitely.
Atomask
Python will add all-encompassing parentheses, making it a full Lisp. Keeping up with population growth, there will now be a handful, nay dozens, of ANSI Common Lisp users. And every ANSI Common Lisp program will still work flawlessly (sound and graphics included), despite changes in chip architecture. The Common Lisp Hyperspec will be enshrined by the World Heritage Foundation as an example of heavenly, Platonic writing. So let it be written. So let it be done.
mindcrime
At the rate things are going, I'd posit that it will be:

Flint & Steel

Trapping

Boiling water

Foraging

Fishing

Smoke signals

Drums

etc.

Maybe I'm just in a pessimistic mood right now, but the future isn't looking terribly bright to me right this minute.

kleer001
> Maybe I'm just in a pessimistic mood right now

I feel yah. I was like that too. Until I read a bunch of optimistic stuff from Stephen Pinker. I always say to give "The Better Angels of Our Nature" a try.

mindcrime
I always say to give "The Better Angels of Our Nature" a try.

I've actually been meaning to read that for a while now. Guess it's time to dive into it.

kleer001
It's a beast. Just looking at the graphs is good enough ;)

Additionally I found "The Righteous Mind: Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and Religion" by Johnathan Haidt illuminating too. Like, everyone isn't crazy, we just have different priorities and hashing them out is good. And that's not a door stop, it's a fun read.

NmAmDa
Linux ( or what is will become at this point) C/C++
open-source-ux
For programming, we'll still be using plain text (in a monospace font) for creating programs - relying on clumsy, cryptic syntax based on the limited characters available on a keyboard. In other words, the default preference of most developers for the past 50 years.

The simplicity of text is very appealing to developers. But arguably, it's modern IDEs that make dealing with plain text tolerable - without them, the simplicity of text would rapidly lose its shine.

playing_colours
C++. C++40 standard will have some great new shiny stuff, but most of the industry will still stuck with C++32.
marton78
Heating up food to disinfect and make it easily digestible, guns, wheels, writing.
sanjayio
JavaScript and Typescript, although I hope way more Typescript in 20 years.
mikewarot
GNU/Linux with the monolithic gigakernel, user based security, and all the attendant security faults.

Virus scanners, firewalls, "trusted boot", and all the government regulation that results from the security holes generated above.

I'm not sure if unlicensed general purpose computing will be available to the working class, or if we will have lost that war in 20 years.

pddpro
I wouldn't be surprised if COBOL were still around by that time. Lots of tech came and went but FORTRAN and COBOL were stubborn enough to survive!
mikewarot
Note that a lot of that old code that caused so much of the fuss in Y2K wasn't ever supposed to be around even a decade after it was written... the phase change caused by IBM OS/360 and widespread backwards compatibility froze it in place.

Normally, you rewrote everything for the new system when it showed up, and used the knowledge gained from the old one to make the new one better. This suddenly stopped when you didn't need to do it, and everyone decided to save time/money and make due with the old code.

brianhorakh
Git, linux are ubiquitous.

Html, css, svg.

Tcp/ip & Ipv6, ipv4 for wifi

K8, c++, java, postgres (as legacy tech)

20 years requires a lot of guessing about communities, libraries, where our society is after a decade of bad ai, mars & moon base. Is Linus still alive? What was his hat trick (3rd act) after linux & git?

Blender probably is big, but also mostly ai driven by then

[dead] aaron695
> what do you think will still be in use and what will be either deprecated

So rate the entire world essentially?

> MySQL will be out almost entirely.

This is garbage. This would mean IT as we know it does not exist. Anything would be possible. We get high on LSD and jackin at the base of our heads, for instance. (I think LSD will stay at best micro dosing and it's a while before we can stop the body rejecting deep implants)

Is this what we are really doing, putting down tech that competes with our hip favourites, LARPing basically?

The 9 billion people will move to what the rich 1% who are HN are doing today. Anything old will stay. Some of the hip frameworks will die.

If MySQL has gone then the basic structure of the planet has changed and anything is legit. It's UBI and everyone is hanging with family. Very very possible a structural change like this happens. But it's not MySQL dead, AngularJS is taught in kindergarten.

ffhhj
Some advanced FPGA hardware that will let you avoid bloatware Windows/MacOS.
jozsefdev
Bash, VIM (without knowing how to exit it). Also I hope some ideas will come into practice from Bret Victor's vision for the future of programming. https://youtu.be/8pTEmbeENF4

I'm also curious to see when will we fully explore the programming language space. I think the possible ways to write code are finite.

yen223
You'd want to look for technologies that were used 20 years ago, that we're still using today. Chances are high that they'll survive the next 20 years.

Things like HTTP, JavaScript, C, C++, Python, Java are all still in regular use now, and will likely still be used 20 years from now.

bionhoward
I feel like type systems and pattern matching are here to stay, even for scripting languages they feel quite productive… I used to resist type systems but I was a fool (still am, but at least I’m a fool with type hints)