Ask HN: What’s the most outrageous belief you’re confident is true?

71 points by 11thEarlOfMar ↗ HN
I was thinking through my 2022 predictions and one came to mind that I thought, “hmm… I’d better keep that one to myself.” Its further out than 2022, and hopefully it’s a never. But I am confident it’s coming, and I sure it’s a bad outcome for humanity: we become more and more influenced by learning systems that are goaled to drive behaviors that are not in our best interest, and, eventually lead to a virtual enslavement that leaves us with no free will.

I shudder at the thought.

What outrageous belief are you confident is true?

381 comments

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Aliens are real, and they're coming (not necessarily that they're on a spaceship headed here, though).
Not so outrageous though; think most scientific inclined people find this statistically and otherwise viable.
The Fermi paradox says otherwise.
Yeah. Odds are that we are aliens.

Meaning: some alien life ( bacteria) landed here on a comet and evolved.

When? In 2022? That would give me something to be excited about.
There is nothing alien. If from another planet, it makes no different. We are all part of the whole of the universe or universes. We Are One!
This is the closest thing to a teleology I believe in (some of the time). Why do anything? Because the aliens are coming. (I literally think of it using the same verb as you.) And then, death match time. Which may well get settled by utter luck, as likely happened in old world vs new world. But still. The more divergent two populations are, the less likely their meeting is to result in cohabitation. I don't think it's luck that there's only one remaining sentient species on the planet.

See also this excerpt from Peter Watts: http://akkartik.name/post/2012-11-21-07-09-03-soc

What used to be common knowledge was wiped away after WW2
What is a common knowledge you believe disappeared?
Some good things German people actually did. (The ones that opposed the Nazi party), and now the _common_ belief is that _all_ Germans were Nazis
I do not believe this is true in any meaningful sense. Schindler's list, Operation Valkyrie and the like are firmly embedded in popular culture. And of course the claim that all of any nation share an ideology is absurd to anyone who thinks about it for two seconds, but I'll give you a pass on that because I don't believe you're talking about people who think for two seconds (I claim that that is also an important error in your worldview, but that's tangential).
Not here (different EU countries); we are taught in school about both sides. There are many books based on reports or letters by soldiers or concentration camp inmates describing Germans not believing in the war effort and more so not believing in the holocaust and helping people. Schindler is a famous example.
Given the evasive nature of the assertion, I'll eat my hat if it's not some flavor of racism, sexism, or eugenics.
I'm suspicious of the evasive vagueness too, and therefore suspect the OP is not talking about what I'm thinking of (though no idea what). Nevertheless:

I do think a lot of common cultural how-to knowledge was destroyed around the middle of the 20th century by the new corporate "mad men" advertising world. For example, complex knowledge of cooking was universal, passed from generation to generation from an early age, then along came heavily advertised processed foods and within a generation, vast swaths of the population have much less know-how being received from their parents, just favorite brands and how to boil the mac and cheese. So much cultural traditional knowledge was lost when it was replaced with mass manufactured "junk culture" and only later are their descendants slowly reaccumulating it.

In the US, society is increasingly breaking down and will accelerate in doing so.
We can see that is actually happening and so it's a fact. Belief is only necessary when you can't see what is actually happening. In this case society breaking down. We have seen it. It is true!
I've always appreciated Dan Carlin's line "climbing the ladder in wooden shoes and descending in silk slippers". Post WW2 was the pinnacle of our achievements and we've been coasting since. It's going to take something traumatic to make us hard and capable again or we're going to dry up what we have left and descend into disorder.

It takes hard people to build a functioning society.

I always hoped 9/11 would rejigger us, but I guess it's too late for that.

Is that why pax romana lasted for 800 years or what? Imo the "hard people" meme needs to die.
I agree with you but Rome went through wax and wane phases for 800 years. Just because you were born in those 800 years doesn't mean life was good. Hell, 60-80% of those emperors were absolute shit or murdered before they could do anything.
It’s the old hard-men/easy times trope again
Even if the meme dies, nature will reenforce it eventually. If you extend into the future past your expected life time this is inevitable.
This is actually not true. The entire world has never been more at peace than it ever has been throughout all of human civilization. Crime is down, lifespans are longer.... the only thing that I can think of that's definitively worse is wealth inequality.

While the world has improved our perception of the world has turned increasing negative. This is mostly because of the media and how the media uses fear to grab attention. But make no mistake, your children and you live in a world that is safer than it ever has been in the history of humankind.

#dontlookup
I thought it was ok. Basically left-wing hollywood throwing rocks at the right-wing big-wig corporate culture, which was admittingly quite hilarious. But, 10 mins in and I've already seen 1) Marijuana 2) LGBTQ references 3) Race/Racism points being made. I wish they also added some satire of the progressives.
I tend to think of myself as a bit of a conservative centrist, and thought it did a decent job insulting everyone. Probably the right more than the left, but that's to be expected given who made it.

I didn't find the main villain to be right wing. If anything, a BezosZuckerbergMusk conglomeration that acted pretty annoyingly progressive in mannerisms and requests.

To me the left was portrayed as social media addicted idiots, and the right as purposefully ignorant idiots(dont look up). In the end, I think someone on either side would end up offended.

They want you to be constantly looking at the wrong place.
Well, I did post it as 'outrageous.'

From a zoomed out view, you're right. We've got it pretty sweet.

But between COVID, which to this day people can't even agree is a real thing...political divides, worker shortages, etc... it's been a tough year. Crime is up -hugely- this year, especially murders. I see people just routinely running red lights like they don't exist, going 120 down i95, and just don't see cops anymore.

I think it's probably a lot to do with media, social media, COVID restrictions and shutdowns, and housing becoming unaffordable... half the people are just at the breaking point all the time this year.

Well I assume this thread is looking for things that are "outrageous" but also genuinely believed to be true. If I can easily defeat your belief with an argument is it true?

I came here interested in seeing outrageous beliefs and arguments that validate their beliefs enough for deeper examination.

> If I can easily defeat your belief with an argument is it true

I do not feel defeated, nor that I no longer believe what I wrote.

What I was trying to agree with is that if you step back and look at the good things, life doesn't seem so bad.

But at the same time, I still feel like -society- is crumbling. In the US, because I don't experience life in other countries.

For people in jobs where real wages haven't kept up with inflation, and where full-time employment isn't available, I would say things are definitely worse than the post-war era. People increasingly cannot afford healthcare, childcare, or even a place to live. The work that is available is being made less safe and more taxing by relentlessly monitoring employees and gutting labour protections. 50 years ago being a taxi driver could be a career, now it's an app where you have to grovel to get 5 star reviews. Working in a warehouse you're measured down to the second on how you move boxes, all day.

Nobody knows how bad social media will end up being for society. For all the criticism of the news media, there are incidents all over the world of hate crimes being motivated by social media spreading rumours quickly and widely. The way that likes and retweets exploit the neurochemistry of our brains to make us produce increasingly incendiary content for people we've never met is going to be looked at like asbestos or leaded gasoline in a hundred years.

Wealth inequality may have worsened over the past, say, 20-50 years, but is it really that bad historically?

I'd much rather be poor today than 100 years ago.

People derive a sense of success not from actual wealth, but from wealth relative to their peers.

I'd rather be a rich ancient Chinese emperor then a modern poor person even though a modern poor person has luxuries no ancient Chinese emperor can ever hope to have.

I think the “nuclear temperature” is getting hotter, although not at all-time highs
tbf, OP did limit his statement to the US, not the world, much less the history of humankind.
Well I mean he said the "US is breaking down." When you say something like that I assume there's a reference point for comparison because it's a controversial statement. People have different opinions about whether or not the US is "breaking down" and it's not entirely a crystal clear fact.

I feel comparing the US to all of civilization is a fair comparison.

> The entire world has never been more at peace than it ever has been throughout all of human civilization

This statement heavily depends on the definition of "war". I don't have the data, but yes, it might very well be true that we have less armed conflicts going on at the moment than any time before.

However, I am convinced that we are currently in an ongoing global war - but this war is very different from the "traditional" ones. Instead of being based on large-scale armed conflicts, it's mainly waging in media, courtrooms, governments, elections and online forums. And the sides in this war are less clearly delineated than we're used to.

But the effects of this war are no less real then those of other types of conflicts; just less obvious.

>But the effects of this war are no less real then those of other types of conflicts; just less obvious.

The greatest effect of war is mass slaughter and death. The actual effect of war is on a different level than even the "woke" movement.

A single man named "George Floyd," out of a population of millions dies and the accused officer (who is obviously a racist out to slaughter all black people) is sentenced to prison as a martyr. A lot of people would say from this that society is breaking down. I beg to differ. This is society confused and with too many first world problems to worry about.

This is on a very different scale than a machine gun mowing down an entire beach of soldiers on omaha during WW2.

No government in human history has lasted more than couple hundred years. I doubt the US will be any different. The only question is if it'll be violent civil war or if it'll just be an uneventful transition to the next republic like many European countries in the last century.
Agreed. The US is on the brink of getting ripped apart by a civil war.
The Bible is utterly true, God is both amazingly compassionate and severe, mankind is ravaged by sin, and Jesus really did come to earth to redeem his people from sin. Those who repent and believe will be saved. Those who do not believe are condemned already (John 3).

Many find these statements outrageous and offensive. I didn't come up with them, just believe them.

I don't find them either outrageous or offensive. They're just not true, that's all.
In that case, "If in Christ we have hope in this life only, we are of all people most to be pitied" (1 Cor 15).
"I permit no woman to teach or have authority over men; she is to keep silent." Timothy 2:11
Struggling to find the relevance in this one.
Relevant in that you don't take stupid advice to heart
What about it is stupid?

Paul’s teaching here is that he’s not permitting women to be teachers in the church. That in God’s decreed order everyone has a role. Male and female have roles to fill and duties unique to their sex. This isn’t misandry or misogyny. Men and women complement each other. Male nor female, there is no difference in dignity and worth.

> We are not saying that Evolution can't exist, only that it is guided by His Noodly Appendage. - Gospel of the Flying Spaghetti Monster (attributed)
"They will pick up serpents with their hands; and if they drink any deadly poison, it will not hurt them; they will lay their hands on the sick, and they will recover.” Mark 16:18 ESV
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It sort of depends on your definition of truth doesn't it?

Most people accept that 2 + 2 = 4 is true. But this is only accurate within the math realm, which is a purely abstract concept. There's no such thing as "2" in the physical world.

I view most religions in a similar way, they are a form of truth, that exist within their abstract realm.

I read a fantasy novel once that had a character that believed in religion. All of them. At the same time. Sincerely.

I always admired him.

There's "two" in the sense of "I have two loaves of bread, you give me two loaves of bread, now I have four". Abstract math arose as a way to describe physical things. That's a pretty concrete definition of truth.
> There's no such thing as "2" in the physical world

…wat.

ಠ_ಠ

At this point, society has quite a lot of science and engineering relying on the fact that numbers have objective meaning in the physical world.

You can’t physically represent or measure PI to more than about 20 decimal places no matter how you arrange matter. The curvature of spacetime itself will ruin any such attempt, not to mention eventually running into the limits of the observable universe itself.

Similarly, according to QM, the number of fundamental particles in any system is not well-defined. They’re constantly appearing and disappearing.

How do you count “people”? Easily and consistently? What about conjoined twins? Still doable? What if the twins are highly asymmetric with one twin just a bump on the head of the other? Just a few cells? Shared brain but seperate bodies? Still easy to “count”?

One functioning engine will get this aeroplane off the ground.

Zero functioning engines will not.

Yeah, pretty easy to count.

Define “functioning”. An engine with one bad cylinder may still get a plane off the ground. An engine that explodes backwards at the right time might momentarily achieve flight also.

Etc…

Reality is much more squishy than you might think.

That’s a fairly impressive mental contortion you’ve arranged to establish a contrarian position, but that’s all it is.

If there is indeed a point you’re trying to make, I think it’s lost on me.

Engine-rich exhaust can still provide thrust.

People like their idealised models of the world, but they're fundamentally still just idealised and models.

It's somewhat illuminating to learn that all abstractions are leaky.

For example, you can't reliably represent "sex" using a "bit" type in a database. It's not just "M" or "F". You can have "unknown" (of course), "known but not willing to say" (whatever), intersex of all sorts, transexuals, genetically XY but physiologically female, etc...

The world is complicated and messy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XY_gonadal_dysgenesis

Similarly, there's no clear demarcation between species in many cases.

There's no such thing as a "tree" either: https://eukaryotewritesblog.com/2021/05/02/theres-no-such-th...

I could go on and on.

> It's somewhat illuminating to learn that all abstractions are leaky

You appear to be presenting these ideas as though they would be new to me, which they aren't. In fact, these ideas are essentially pop-science[0].

Incidentally, the rhetoric you are employing is also used by Flat Earthers[1], so well done for that, I suppose.

> For example, you can't reliably represent "sex" using a "bit" type in a database

This example you've swiftly jumped to is a little too on the nose for me to not read it as bait. Did you think you'd found a bible-bashing Trump-voting conservative to argue against?

> I could go on and on.

Yes, I can see that. I will however once again invite you to try and articulate a point that you're trying to make.

[0]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhwcEvMJz1Y

[1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnwTtr_JYCM

I don’t believe in your definition of truth nor do I believe you’re qualified to make statements defining truth.

Sounds like, just your opinion, man.

Out of curiosity, what is your rationalization of the epic of Gilgamesh having a nearly identical flood story about 500-600 years prior to the Old Testament and no Christian gods present? I’m genuinely interested in how a Christian thinks about that and the other various pre-Christian stuff that was incorporated into the Bible.
It's all about whose textual criticism you believe. You can find people who argue one way. The Old Testament professors I studied under would argue a different way. Just one example: https://genesisapologetics.com/faqs/gilgamesh-epic-which-cam...

There are other things in the Bible that challenge me more than textual criticism.

On the flip side, I'd say the core "rationalization" I have for my belief is what the Bible teaches about sin. It's obvious to me something is very wrong with with the world we live in. I think the Bible explains convincingly both what's wrong and what the fix is.

Wow thanks for the link, that does clearly show how Bible literalists(?) think about topics like that.
Harry potter is true. Voldemort is doomed to come back and there are secret schools were people go to learn how to do magic.
I wish. :) Except the Voldemort part. Harry Potter is fantastic.
How can the bible be utterly true? It outright contradicts itself multiple times. It's a bunch of little books written by a hundred different people over the span of centuries.

Do you instead mean that you believe that the broad themes are true, but that there are lots of details written by authors that are flawed?

To believe that it is "utterly" true indicates to me a capacity for doublethink bordering on total insanity.

Religion specifically asks you suspend disbelief, so this is consistent
You are, of course, accusing me of being totally insane after a reasonable investigation of the Bible including significant familiarity with the texts themselves as well as the theological and exegetical arguments for non-contradiction?

If not, maybe try it. :) IMO there are reasonable and even compelling arguments about why the Bible is both inerrant and trustworthy.

I spent five years in seminary and believe, after significant investigation, that the Bible is utterly true.

I have read it. It's why I don't believe it is utterly true and consider the claim that it is utterly true indicative of what I said it is. It's 2021. Any of us can go and look up a list of the contradictions people have found throughout the ages, then go and look up those verses on BibleHub and see that the text, in any of a dozen translations, are directly contradictory. Context does not help in the vast majority of these cases, as they are definitive claims of fact that are directly opposed.

Probably my favorite bit is when Genesis says that god decided people could not live longer than 120 years, then later goes on to name a ton of people who lived for hundreds of years. We also know today that there is at least one person who lived longer than 120 years, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeanne_Calment .

And of course I won't even get into just how fantastically contradictory every gospel is with the others over quite a startling array of details of the story of the death and ascension of Jesus.

Well, kudos for at least reading it.

Yah, some of that stuff is admittedly hard, the different gospel narratives are right up there with the best of them. Although, I do believe they can be reconciled.

My apologies for assuming you were just parroting common internet wisdom.

Does the Bible have any predictive power at all in the real world today? What insights can it give modern scientists?

Do miracles still happen or have they conveniently stopped happening in the modern world? If anything it would be easier to prove nowadays with most people walking around with cameras.

IMO you have some presuppositions about value and importance that are influencing the questions you ask.

For example, I could ask: "How does the Bible help me be a better Python developer?" The most direct answer is, "It doesn't."

Biblical wisdom, in response, might say something like: "What does it profit a man to gain the whole world (e.g. be the best Python developer) and forfeit his soul?" And, if you believe that's a better and more important question, then the Bible starts to have value and insight.

I only have anecdotes regarding miracles. Usually from missionary settings. But, I've also realized that while miracles are frequent in the Bible particularly because they are extraordinary, most of the biblical timeline unfolds without mention of any miracles. I think it's probable miraculous signs are not nor expected to be commonplace.

>Biblical wisdom, in response, might say something like: "What does it profit a man to gain the whole world (e.g. be the best Python developer) and forfeit his soul?" And, if you believe that's a better and more important question, then the Bible starts to have value and insight.

At that point, one might as well turn to Buddhism or the wisdom in Hindu texts, which is as good as, if not better than wisdom in the Bible. The Bible would only be special if it was the word of God, but if it cannot give us any more insight into understanding our world than science can, it's a lost cause.

You kind of have to run Pascal’s wager on that one then, don’t you?

The Bible says that it is the divinely inspired word of God, that Jesus himself is the exclusive way to heaven and that all other religions are fabrications and devotion to them leads to hell. Hell is a real place, with real suffering brought on from disunity with God. Quite the wager imo.

> but if it cannot give us any more insight into understanding our world than science can, it's a lost cause

It’s surprising to me that especially in this year alone people cling to science as their religion. Modern medicine is effectively still alchemy in light of comprehensive knowledge of the human body. No scientist can recreate the human hand, eye or ear in perfect authenticity to all of its intricacies. It’s trite at this point to even mention all that we do not know of our own humanity. We can’t even fix depression with SSRI’s! We have no clue the true mechanism of action as it interacts with brain chemistry.

The Bible declares that in every individual, God created the very last detail of their existence. That before time began he knew you and I as individuals. Jesus came and rebuked fevers. Literally spoke to a fever to tell it to leave. He told bacteria or viruses to leave another humans body and it did. She was saved. Jesus can do that because he’s God. He can do that because he has comprehensive, complete, understanding of the human body. He designed it. He made it.

Science knows that it doesn’t know everything. Otherwise it would stop.

And if you truly believed that science were as flimsy as you appear to suggest, next time you fly somewhere, ask for a priest to fly the plane, not a pilot.

It seems you’re taking my words beyond what I said.

Science has its use, but in the grand scheme of things, science only helps us see the mirror dimly.

>No scientist can recreate the human hand, eye or ear in perfect authenticity to all of its intricacies. It’s trite at this point to even mention all that we do not know of our own humanity. We can’t even fix depression with SSRI’s! We have no clue the true mechanism of action as it interacts with brain chemistry.

Textbook https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/God_of_the_gaps

I believe it’s utterly, infallibly, and inerrantly true.

I haven’t been able to find a single contradiction that hasn’t been answered by a cogent explanation that includes the surrounding context, intertext references and ties to larger overarching themes. And believe me, I love and enjoy peering deeply into those holes.

Perhaps the beauty is that those 66 books written over centuries tell a continuous and noncontradicting story.

This isn’t to say that there aren’t difficult sections of scripture. There are things that come off as quotes that are actually paraphrases. There are different point of views between the gospels that insist 1 person was there when 2 people were in another account of the same situation. These are easily remedied when you consider the focus and theme of the book and the clear intentions of the author.

The authors are indeed flawed (as humans, standing in the pages of history), but they write with the inspiration of God himself and make no error in recording their account.

Happy to help with other concerns.

Easily. It's the same story from two different perspectives. The first chapter is on a more global level. The second zooms in and focuses specifically on how man was created.

The animals were created globally first. Once Adam was created, God created animals again so Adam could see the process, understand that God is Creator, and participate in ruling over God's creation.

Interesting website choice. I spent a year as an agnostic because of that website before I started to realize there must be another perspective to consider.

Okay. So you don't believe that the bible is utterly true. You believe that the bible, plus some supplementary explanatory material is utterly true.
I certainly believe interpretation is necessary and that some interpretations are more faithful than others.

I believe there are resources out there that can help someone to faithfully interpret. And the converse also. The skeptics annotated Bible being in the latter category IMO.

To a disinterested outsider, this dialog reads like:

A: everything in this book is literally true

B: what about this passage where it says 3+4=9?

A: my interpretation of that passage is that the 9 represents a 7 in that particular context

The salient point being: that even if A has arrived at a literally true interpretation of the passage, the truth came from A, not from the passage. Further, although A believes they're arguing that the book is inerrant, what they're effectively claiming is that their interpretations are inerrant.

> the truth came from A, not from the passage How can an interpretation attesting the truth of two passages exist while the passages are individually untrue? There seems to be a logic error here.

> what they're effectively claiming is that their interpretations are inerrant.

I don’t think A is claiming that, as the most basic understanding of Christianity understands that the individual is terribly flawed and errant.

If your presupposition for this conclusion is based on your earlier point might have either misstated something or you’re claiming a conclusion without an expressed premise.

The passages are interpreted incorrectly.

Humans aren't rational beings that form conclusions by logically composing facts into a singular point. Instead humans are more prone to construct a scaffold of logic in order to support and existing belief. That site is picking and choosing passages in order to support a misguided belief.

Instead a person must start with no beliefs and formulate a conclusion from the facts. If you do this, it is undeniable that the bible is real.

I once told this to an atheist and he was astonished because my description of his subconscious behavior and lack of awareness was 100% what he thought I was doing.

This makes me wonder do atheists even realize how unscientific and illogical they are? Are they constantly thinking that I'm the one that's illogical? Are humans so unaware of their own biases that we can never ever truly determine what is real and what isn't?

To answer your final question - no, we probably cannot actually determine absolute truth about the universe. There is quite a long history of epistemology that indicates this. In addition, we've got the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G%C3%B6del's_incompleteness_th... which lets us know that there will ALWAYS be true things that we cannot prove with any set of axioms. Coming to a full reckoning of truth or reality is impossible. We're each doing the best we can with the perspective we've been given and the information available to us.

I also think you are being quite uncharitable to most atheists. The majority of us grew up in the church, have read the bible, utterly believed the bible was true, were devout believers, and generally were at some point quite indistinguishable from you or any other truly intellectual believer in terms of worldview.

It really was the kinds of contradictions the comment you replied to indicates, along with hundreds of others, and the absolute mental knots that had to be constructed in order to justify them that set me on the path of disbelief. This is the path for millions of people as they take a serious reckoning of their beliefs and with their holy books and do a fundamental reexamination of their entire worldview and belief structure.

I don't think that either of us is being disingenuous in our portrayal of our beliefs. That said, I really do think that your interpretation of what people are doing when they examine these contradictions and draw the conclusion of disbelief is, in fact, the theological equivalent of p-hacking is fundamentally untrue.

I wasn't referring to something that profound. It's more like am I right or are you right?
>Instead a person must start with no beliefs and formulate a conclusion from the facts. If you do this, it is undeniable that the bible is real.

What verifiable facts are in the Bible?

Can any of the claimed miracles be replicated today? Say handling snakes or drinking poison, which has resulted in multiple deaths of believers.

Two religious people can't agree which parts of the Bible are literal and which are just a story, so it's funny to see accusations at the other side.

Astronomy makes outlandish sounding conjectures that can't be replicated either and it is not considered a religion. For example, the big bang cannot be replicated.

Lack of the ability to replicate something means that it is just hard to prove that something is true. Not being able to prove something to be true via replication does not mean it is not true.

I suppose the thing about faith is there is nothing I can do or say that could convince you from it. Your unwavering belief in the myths told in a collection of old books written by the barely educated in spite of a lack of evidence for the more magical parts (which is a significant chunk of it) is indeed a core moral value in your belief system. The extent to which you believe is somehow a virtue, and not a vice. This is obviously in reverse from my perspective.

You think I’m illogical. I think you’re illogical. In the end we’re just two Spidermans, pointing at each other.

>I once told this to an atheist and he was astonished because my description of his subconscious behavior and lack of awareness was 100% what he thought I was doing.

>This makes me wonder do atheists even realize how unscientific and illogical they are? Are they constantly thinking that I'm the one that's illogical? Are humans so unaware of their own biases that we can never ever truly determine what is real and what isn't?

You're an atheist too, towards other religions like Islam, Hinduism etc. When you truly understand that your arguments against those religions go against Christianity too, you will understand atheists.

My arguments against Islam and Hinduism are identical to my argument against atheism. My reasoning is internally and externally consistent.
> My reasoning is internally and externally consistent.

I don’t think you should be so confident that everyone else sees it this way.

Why do we need to refer to everyone else? What matters is my own argument not everyone else's.

If what everyone else thinks is a factor, than the majority of the world is not atheist.

I think I see what you're trying to say, but there is a bit of term confusion in your argument.

Just using the linguistics of the word, "Atheists" are definitively people who do not believe in a theos, ie: a g/God. It would be nonsensical to call a polytheist or monotheist an atheist.

> When you truly understand that your arguments against those religions go against Christianity too...

Christianity is relatively unique[1] in the sense that it claims exclusivity to salvation through Jesus Christ. As it relates to your argument, this tenant allows Christians to make claims to spiritual supremacy. Interreligious comparisons are moot at that point.

[1] Conditioning that statement here, I can't keep up with all the world's religions

> Humans aren't rational beings that form conclusions by logically composing facts into a singular point.

But you’re proceeding to form a logical, rational argument in saying this. How are we to ever understand what you’re intending?

I am simply saying that humans by nature are irrational. You have to deliberately discipline yourself to be dispassionate in constructing logical arguments. Atheism is illogical and unscientific. It is a collection of people deliberately and unconsciously picking and choosing specific evidence to validate a pre-existing belief that they already staked so much of their identity on.

A person born into atheism isn't just going to change sides as soon as he's presented with evidence that Christianity is real. Rather he will twist and bend the existing evidence in a way so as to support is current world view.

When you do place together all the facts, logically speaking, what follows is that the bible is real.

Atheism isn’t a belief.

Atheism is non-belief.

This is pedantic. You could say you believe in not believing in certain things. Does it even matter? You know what I mean, no need to get pedantic here.
I don’t really wish to continue arguing with you, because as I wrote earlier, your heels are dug in and there’s nothing I can say or do to convince you.

I do think it’s useful to highlight here though that the difference between belief and non-belief is not pedantry, and it’s not inconsequential.

The entire scientific method is about challenging ideas to discover the truth. When a scientist makes a claim to another scientist, the default position is “I don’t believe it. Please show substantial evidence to support your claim.”

This is different from faith-based scientism, which is more similar to any other faith-based ism in that the method is to protect ideas from challenge in order to preserve the “truth”.

I'm sorry but you're the one that is biased and have your heels dug. I don't wish to to communicate with you either. However you're the one that decided to respond to me. I'm up to talk but if you say something as rude as, "I don’t really wish to continue arguing with you" then I have no interest in anything you have to say. I kindly ask you to stop if you do not want to continue arguing with me, you're the one that responded to me in the first place.

>I do think it’s useful to highlight here though that the difference between belief and non-belief is not pedantry, and it’s not inconsequential.

If you don't wish to continue arguing with me why the heck are you still highlighting things? The difference is pedantic. It's like talking about the difference between adding a negative number and subtracting a positive number.

    You believe something exists.
    You disbelieve something doesn't exist.

    You believe something doesn't exist.
    You disbelieve something doesn't exist. 
These are linguistic phenomenons and you are just adding negative qualifiers to words thinking that it has a profound affect on meaning. It is 100% pedantic. Additionally my religion is not a belief. It is a logical conclusion built from the composition of facts.

>The entire scientific method is about challenging ideas to discover the truth. When a scientist makes a claim to another scientist, the default position is “I don’t believe it. Please show substantial evidence to support your claim.”

The scientific method cannot ever discover the truth. Proof is the domain of math and logic. In science and therefore the real world, nothing can be proven. To quote Einstein: "No amount of experimentation can ever prove me right; a single experiment can prove me wrong."

Science is not about proving things to be true. The entire endeavor of science is an attempt to prove something false. Repeated failures to prove something false only indicates that something "might" be true.

This coupled with the fact that all observations tools in science have limited accuracy and limited precision makes it such that even the act of disproof is done through the lens of probability. Or in other words, nothing can really be disproven either. This is a bit philosophical and a bit too pedantic but the point is to illustrate that I understand the scientific method to a degree greater than even most atheists.

>This is different from faith-based scientism, which is more similar to any other faith-based ism in that the method is to protect ideas from challenge in order to preserve the “truth”.

Let me reiterate my point. My stance is not faith-based. It is self-evident logic. Every religious person you talk to parrots the buzz word of "faith" but really what they are saying to you is that their "belief" to them is as logical and rational as science is to you.

That isn't true at all. Atheism is a positive belief that the statement "there is no God" is true.

For example, I don't lack a belief that an elephant is in my living room, I have a positive belief that there is no such elephant.

This leads to absurdity. There are infinite non-existances, but finite existences (modulo the infinite of the universe, but the observable universe/the ~13.7 billion lightyear bubble around the Earth or so is finite). To assert that you have a positive belief that things that do not exist do not exists is to assert that you have infinite positive beliefs in the non-existant. To encode these infinite positive beliefs in reality would require infinite storage space, even in something as powerful as the human brain. I instead assert that you have positive beliefs in things that exist and, only upon it being necessary, do you assert the factuality of non-existences in an ad hoc as needed basis as the result of the conjugation of your positive beliefs of existence.
The pretzels "you people" tie yourself in... I can't fathom how you operate with that much cognitive dissonance in your heads all the time.

You must willfully ignore all the hard questions you can't answer.

But that is what real this real religious belief brings right? I am an atheist but (only early on) raised with: the hard questions you do not ask; it is up to god and not you to know these things. Just follow his teachings in life and do not reason why. I do believe (from the few people I know who really believed, all dead now) that if you deeply believe and follow this, you could be happy in a very easy way as you genuinely will leave these questions behind and believe all people who question you will end up south of heaven. Not your problem if you tried to help them by quoting scripture. Think it leaves your head more clear than having questions and finding ways (logic, physics etc) to answer them; just not have them at all.
you need to prove god first (but it would help if it was clearly defined first).

But the "teachings" basically boil down to "treat others how you would like to be treated. There is nothing god like in that... its pure evolutionary pragmatism.

Agreed, however, there are many interpretations which have many caveats. I was raised in a particularly hard-core interpretation of the bible and we had to do a lot more to get to heaven than just treat others how you would like to be treated. Also, what is your margin of error for that in a particular interpretation? Can you repent or off to hell with you after one strike? Ours was closer to the latter. All the questions I had as a child about those things and the logic fallacies coming out it where said to be god's domain, not mine (and continuing that line of questioning actually was said to be sort of a sin (I do not remember how severe it was, just that this is in the bible somewhere and that I got a lot of school penalties asking questions), with bible verses quoted).
Can you supply archaelogical, or historical proof that Moses existed as a real person?

The egyptians kept stellar records and there's no record of 100k people wandering the wilderness of a 20 mile stretch of land for 40 years. It's hard to fathom that'd go unnoticed.

It's also a fact that the books of moses were first written down about 800 years after he would've lived...so how can that be infallible if it's passed by word of mouth.... Ever play the telephone game?

> The egyptians kept stellar records

The best evidence is that the egyptians were very biased in what was recorded in ways that would be likely to have survived (triumphs, yes, defeats, not so much) and that even when things were recorded, events and persons who later fell into disfavor were actively eradicated from the kind of durable, monumental records that would be most likely to survive.

> and there’s no record of 100k people wandering the wilderness of a 20 mile stretch of land for 40 years.

What 20 mile stretch of land are you talking about? With the classical (but probably wrong) association of the Yam Suph with the Gulf of Suez, the “wilderness” would have been (or at least started) on the Sinai Peninsual, which is more than 20 miles in either dimension. (There’s a number of other interpretations of the Yam Suph, including the Gulf of Aqaba, which would have put the wilderness in (again, starting in) Arabia. (There’s good reasons to doubt the Exodus story, but you’ve completely missed the real ones: while the absence of records of the actual Exodus is much less surprising than you make, the absence of evidence of anything like the population that supposedly took part in it ever existing in Egypt at any time in order to leave in the Exodus is the big one.)

> It’s also a fact that the books of moses were first written down about 800 years after he would’ve lived…so how can that be infallible if it’s passed by word of mouth.... Ever play the telephone game?

Societies with high literacy may not be good at maintaining stable oral traditions, but those without it are known to be. Even if that weren’t true, mundane written documents aren’t infallible either, believing in infallible writing usually involves invoking a special divine gift of inspiration. But if that works for writing, there’s no reason it can’t work for oral tradition, or for writing that is remote from events.

I don't find it offensive, I do not think it can be true and currently, at least in the EU where I live and have lived, this is seen in this day and age as an American thing (the end of Don't look up for instance). And that people on HN believe that (logically inconsistent stories interpreted differently; your interpretion is already different from versions practiced where I grew up, where, by the way, the churches closed down mostly now) is beyond me, but each their own. If it makes you happy, who cares what others think.
The universe is probably conscious at some base level. All conscious agents existing within it are kind of short lived threads within its VM. Death may or may not be a transition from the localized to the global state of awareness. But I'm quite sure that anything that computes over some non random inputs including individual atoms has a base level of consciousness woven into it.

Well, you wanted outrageous didn't you?

I'm an apatheist, truly, but have "pet beliefs" that I play around with to push back the expansive vacuum sometimes.

One of them is "The Egg" by Andy Weir, where everyone on earth is a single entity at different parts of its life.

But I truly believe that we are the universe experiencing itself. Observation and matter are inseparable, and that consciousness isn't required for observation, but is useful for it.

I love Kurzgesagt’s animation of The Egg.
I don't believe in any kind of transition of consciousness because I think consciousness is fundamentally unique to the system that it emerges from. There is only one physical you, so the consciousness that emerges from you is from your particular arrangement of dna/atoms/etc.

But I do believe in consciousnesses at different levels, like you mention. Also, at different time scales. For example, some systems may only appear conscious to us when considering 100 years of their time as 1 second of our time. The complexity of the system probably has some direct correlation to the "amount" of consciousness that can emerge from it over some time scale.

Yeah, I think we're actually more or less in agreement, at least in part. But I do believe that there is a phenomenal sense of "being an atom" or even "being a subatomic particle" and it's the absolutely most basic form of consciousness. But the emergent consciousness of a fruit fly or yourself is but a more advanced manifestation of the same phenomenon of subjectivity. The open question is whether upon one's death the subjectivity of you melts back into the global subjectivity "soup" in some way that propagates the continuity of that self? Mind you, I'm still working in a materialistic framework assuming that your memories are all gone when the neurons that form them are irreversibly damaged.
I’m convinced of something like this when on a high enough dose of certain psychedelics. I feel like I am experiencing movement of my self along different dimensions of a consciousness space that makes up the universe. And that the substrate making up my mind gets temporarily split into many smaller minds that can examine one another. Maybe everything’s a simulation and it’s all just data. Maybe there doesn’t even need to be a computer to run the simulation, and the state space representing my consciousness just exists the same way the matrix [1, 2, 3] exists whether or not a computer is storing it.

After sobering up, I’m 99% sure this is a delusion, that my brain is just running wild and inventing the experience. That other 1%, though…

A belief of mine that's related to yours and might be much harder for the HN community to digest: I believe that computers come far, far short of an adequate explanation/analogy/metaphor for the workings of the universe
Your non-belief against a strawman and that smug sense of superiority is not out of the ordinary. In fact it is very common around here.
Like I said, this one is hard to digest because I know a lot of the HN community loves computers (myself included). I'm sorry if I came off acting superior or smug. Nonetheless I stand by my comment and I think it's interesting to contemplate the limits of computers because it's a common metaphor for understanding many different aspects of the universe and I think you made this discussion much more personal than it needed to be. Sure, I disagreed with someone's belief, but I don't think I said anything personal against that person.
What I meant by strawman is that you are arguing against a position that does not exist. And by smugness I mean your general attitude against people whom you perceive as naive. Hope that clarifies it. Happy holidays.
HN is probably conscious at some base level. All conscious pseudonymous accounts existing within it are kind of short lived threads within its VM. HN Karma may or may not be a transition from the localized to the global state of awareness. But I'm quite sure that anything that computes over some non random inputs including individual atoms has a base level of consciousness woven into it.

Well, you wanted outrageous didn't you?

I've seen mandela effects, or retcons in the past 8 months.... a year ago I would've thought you were full of it.... a flip flop esp. messed w/ my head, so now I can definitely see Simulation theory or something w/ the entire universe being a dream of a single consciousness as being a thing....
I have had this very same idea a while ago. I actually like it, and I am probably not the only one, but I could not find anything remotely related to it.

Do you know if this idea/theory has a common name?

Dentists are a secret cult.

I’ve met all sorts of people socially - surgeons, cleaners, plumbers, Pilates instructors, farmers, barristers, drivers etc.

But I’ve never met a dentist anywhere other than at their surgery practice. I’ve heard dentists often marry other dentists as well. They charge an extortionate amount of money for doing very little compared to many other similar professions. They must be a cult.

Based on the fact that they are still putting mercury amalgam into people's bodies, you might be on to something.
Find another dentist. Composite fillings have been the standard of care for decades.
Mercury is no longer fashionable, but root canals still are. Appartently not insignificant amount of them are hiding an infection that might not be visible in x ray and may ve keeping people sick. And the dentists know it, because when you go to chemotherapy, it is standard practice to remove all root canals.
That's scary. How would one go about learning more about a possibly hidden infection and remedying it?
I don’t know any fool-proof way to know if you have such a problem.

Some people who have had low chronic infections i.e. feeling sick while there has not been anything wrong recognized by the traditional medicine (i.e. infection not even showing up in the blood samples) have found relief after removing all teeth with root canals. My dentist has also done some published research on this subject, but it is not knowledge mainstream dentists are familiar with.

However, it is probably not enough to remove the tooth, it must be cleaned properly as well, so you better talk to a natural dentist. Regular dentists think infections heal themselves, and sometimes they do, but apparently not always.

In any case, you should not take medical advice from random internet person and I am not qualified to give any, so the above is not medical advice.

I have not read it myself, but the book Accidental blow up in medicine has been recommended to me on this subject.

LOL. I actually used to rent a room from a dentist. Cool guy. Lived with him for 3 years.
I went solo to Whistler once for the snow and it was the winter weekend of the African American Dentists association. Delightful, but all guys.
I've met exactly one dentist not actively at a dentistry office. She's a burlesque performer and it's her secret life, none of the other dentists (or patients) must ever find out. So this tracks.
Dentists don't have a social life because they're up to their necks in debt, paying for outrageously expensive software tied to their Xray and their CNC gear, to make crowns, etc.
Is that the case in US? It is considered here as a job that will let you retire with a nice house and pension.
Most dentists do not have a in house lab. That is usually farmed out. They also charge a premium on what they pay the lab. Most dentists i know are not in debt for a long period of time unless they join one of the bargin dental clinics like western dental.
My dentist is a big time burner. Didn't even realize he was a dentist for a few years - was just this guy in our camp. Nothing at the office that would indicate it really.
Hmmm, now that you mention it:

Yes, we have a number of doctors, lawyers, a number of farmers including many active ones, pilots, lots of programmers, sysadmins, a few kids (I think) and from time to time some homeless here on HN but I cannot remember a single person admitting they are a dentist.

The problem with the queesion is that some of the most outrageous beliefs people will think they believe but really do not. We can see it from the fact that they ignore what follows from those beliefs. So now I have to say something that is outrageous but not too much. Lets say, as a joke, that I believe what you predict has already happened.
I agree, there is often a deep discrepancy. The things people say (like what they say they believe, what they say they value, etc) often do not match up with what they actually think (e.g. if you watch how they actually behave, make choices, go about their lives, etc).

I sometimes hear people say it's a matter of how you define words like "believe" but to me, that only to complicates the matter.

I think almost all if not all of our serious problems can be traced to this kind of discrepancy. Maybe that's my outrageous belief, heh :S

I almost completely agree with what you say, except to me it seems there are other forms of denial as well, and I don’t know how common they are compared to each other.

Yes, it is possible to play with the words like redefine ”belief”, but does not get us any closer to the truth.

That almost everything is a scam.
This is one I'm believing more and more. We're definitely heading for third-worldization of the US economy where fewer people are working on building better mousetraps and more people are engaging in more zero sum scamming of everyone else.
If you want more confirmation, I can recommend the monthly http://theponzibook.blogspot.com/ newsletter. The author gathers recent indictments and verdicts of Ponzi-like schemes in the US.

I was amazed that (1) there are many of them and (2) they can still run successfully for several years.

Free will does not exist, everything is 100% deterministic. There is no "randomness", it's a shim we use when we haven't discovered the physical law governing a process.
Not that outrageous some physicists agree with you.
That's why I like Bayesian statistics...it places 'uncertainty' in the observer rather than the environment.
This coincides heavily with intelligent design.
Intelligent Design is a Christian offshoot theory, and Christians 100% believe in free will.
No, I'm afraid not. Respectfully, you seem to be painting with an overly broad brush on this one.

The tie between intelligent design and Christianity isn't a necessary one. Deists could believe in intelligent design and be consistent; Buddhists, Hindus, Muslims and Jews as well.

Furthermore, not all Christians would subscribe to "free will" (as in libertarian free will, the flavor that most people subscribe to). A lot of more conservative traditions would affirm soft-determinism or even fatalism.

> The tie between intelligent design and Christianity isn't a necessary one.

I suppose so. As far as I’m aware, it grew out of a need for Christians to present a scientific-seeming theory to explain the evidence supporting evolution, without supporting evolution. I imagine other religious groups might have a similar need, but Intelligent Design is one that Christians came up with.

> Furthermore, not all Christians would subscribe to "free will"

This I don’t understand at all. You may be correct, but I don’t see how it makes any sense. Without free will how could there be sin, and without sin what did Christ die to save us from?

>Without free will how could there be sin, and without sin what did Christ die to save us from?

There are various parts of the Bible which suggest free will does not exist, and belief in predestination has a long history in Christianity. This verse in Romans is a good example:

-----

Not only that, but Rebekah’s children were conceived at the same time by our father Isaac. Yet, before the twins were born or had done anything good or bad—in order that God’s purpose in election might stand: not by works but by him who calls—she was told, “The older will serve the younger.” Just as it is written: “Jacob I loved, but Esau I hated.”

What then shall we say? Is God unjust? Not at all! 15 For he says to Moses,

“I will have mercy on whom I have mercy, and I will have compassion on whom I have compassion.”

It does not, therefore, depend on human desire or effort, but on God’s mercy. For Scripture says to Pharaoh: “I raised you up for this very purpose, that I might display my power in you and that my name might be proclaimed in all the earth.” Therefore God has mercy on whom he wants to have mercy, and he hardens whom he wants to harden.

  One of you will say to me: “Then why does God still blame us? For who is able to resist his will?”   But who are you, a human being, to talk back to God? “Shall what is formed say to the one who formed it, ‘Why did you make me like this?’” Does not the potter have the right to make out of the same lump of clay some pottery for special purposes and some for common use?
Romans 9:10-21

-----

Of course, there is also plenty of evidence for free will in the Bible, the Genesis account being one example. And trying to square that circle can get complicated[0,1].

[0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_will_in_theology#In_the_B...

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predestination

That’s a lot, and I’ll read through it. Thanks :-)
This is inconclusive. I mean you can "believe it," but from a factual perspective we don't know if this is true. Observed quantum effects seem to show that the world is random at it's most fundamental level but, again, there is not enough information to form a definitive conclusion about this.
Right, it's just a belief.
What is a belief. If there is not enough information to determine whether something is true or false what does it mean to "believe" it?

Also what if there is overwhelming evidence that something is untrue. You trust the evidence but you still "believe" the thing the evidence contradicts?

How do you explain this? I cannot identify with this interpretation of the world. Say I'm looking at a rock and you're looking at a rock. But despite All evidence on the contrary I "believe" the rock doesn't exist. How would I explain my reasoning?

A belief is an act of conjuring complete information from incomplete information.

I think all beliefs must come from some nonzero amount of evidence. They seem absurd when evidence from one domain is transferred to a different domain in order to support some statement.

I think everything is deterministic because I can't imagine true randomness. It's a concept we use to represent lack of information.

I don't have a good grasp of quantum physics and I think every process described as random is like a coin flip: the outcome seems "random", but in reality you would be able to predict it if you had 1. enough information about the initial conditions 2. sufficiently accurate knowledge of the presumably deterministic physical laws governing the process.

Disbelief in magic can force a poor soul into believing in government and business. — Tom Robbins
My pet question with quantum physics (of which I know very little) is related.

It seems simpler to assume we just don't know, rather than attributing it to the unusual property of true unpredictability. We already know that a chaotic dynamic system is difficult to predict, and even encryption algorithms we conjure up have very high entropy. So why isn't that enough here?

I ran into a new & interesting counter-position earlier today.

TLDR: "Not only can we experience, for example, falling, but we can also reflect on that experience and create change based on that reflection.... This implies that human free will is the sole known entity in the universe capable of eliciting change based on conscious reflection."

(Funny article, anyway!) [https://thenextweb.com/news/theoretical-physicists-think-hum...]

Why does having that ability imply free will?

What is "conscious" reflection? I think "consciousness" is another one of those terms that masks our fundamental misunderstanding of how things work.

Meanwhile some of us think it exists and use it to decide to leave alone after grabbing coffee.

Nothing good comes out of thinking free will doesn't exist. It is just a massive cop-out.

Furthermore a lot of history cannot be properly explained without it.

Last, even if it somehow was true and every act of defiance was just a mental illness everyone would be better of not being aware of it.

In fact anyone that mentions that free will doesn't exist actually makes me appreciate even more that I have one and also to embrace the opportunities it gives me.

There, see you later :-)

I don't think you've thought deep enough about what having no free will implies.
The lack of free will is something that I came to realize in my 50th year on this planet. I still believe in randomness, though, just that we don't actually have any control over anything, at least not in a free will sense. I also kinda believe our consciousness is a passenger in the meat bodies of another entity and we are just following along, with the illusion of control. Kind of freeing, actually.
Sure. Let's agree that it's all deterministic. But answer this. Is the outcome going to be different if you decide to do something different? Deterministic or not - your experience of free will / anguish over choice does not change.
There is only one outcome because what you decide is deterministic. The experience of making a decision creates the illusion of free will.

"Mensch kann zwar tun, was er will, aber er kann nicht wollen, was er will."

> Deterministic or not - your experience of free will / anguish over choice does not change.

I agree.

Leaders, corporate media and owners would rather stoke bloodlust than do anything about economic conditions. Things in the US aren't going to magically get better, and it won't take much for neighbor to turn on neighbor.
I think we've got a long long way to go before material conditions are actually ripe for open conflict. We'll have our panem et circenses in spades for a long time coming, I think.
Truthfully, I don't think it will take abject poverty for something to happen. I think all some people need to become violent is a sense of entitlement that reality isn't soothing anymore. Kind of like people who decide to annihilate their families in the face of break ups, because if the perpetrator can't have them, then no one can.
Crypto is going to fail and with it the zoomer/millennial retirement plan, then the stock market bubble economy may actually pop hard. We could hit >20% unemployment overnight if it all unwinds hard. Then angry people may got a bit Rwanda here and there and engage in some local purges (probably not in major cities). It is unlikely to look like armies marching on each other cities.
And they stoke bloodlust so that they don't have to do anything about economic conditions.
So that the forces of democracy stay at bay, enabling them to reap the benefits of our economic output. After all, it's important to remember their economic conditions aren't the same as ours (because they've captured all of the wealth).
There is a quote I can't find the author of. They will risk everything to give up nothing.
The Honest Government Ads are actually aren't a joke
We will lose out on a generation of great engineers, scientists, and mathematicians because our (US) public school systems are teetering on the brink in multiple ways. From underfunded districts and underappreciated teachers, to activists who have infiltrated curriculum-setting (on both sides: from "you can't talk about race in history class" to "there's no right answer to these arithmetic problems, everyone has their own interpretation"), to course schedules that delay algebra until senior year of high school. It's a shame that we as a society seem to care so little about the foundations of an educated and intelligent population.
One more terrible factor in addition to the ones you named (and I agree with): ubiquitous smartphones in kids' pockets, filled with intentionally addictive entertainment apps, ruining their attention spans, destroying their ability to focus on or feel bored long enough to be attracted to educational pursuits, or even mildly constructive "unapproved" pursuits like doodling, making paper airplanes, reading non school related material, passing notes etc.

The biggest difference between this factor and the others is this one is genuinely new and sudden, a jump discontinuity of a change in the last few years. And there is a strong profit motive for the addictive app makers, and there are incentives for teachers and administrators to turn a blind eye.

(Source: worked in a classroom for a semester. It's really, really bad. I encountered kids who would come up to ask a question, then get distracted by their own phones and lose interest before being able to listen to my reply to the question they themselves chose to ask, as if they forgot why they were even standing)

I struggle with this as an adult, I can't imagine how hard it is for kids to fight the addiction.
I didn’t have access to a smartphone growing up, although they were widespread by the time I was a teenager.

I ofc have had one as an adult , and while I don’t feel like I’ve become dumber (mostly thanks to aggregating experience), I’m almost certain my ability to do many things, including learn has been significantly throttled.

I still don't carry a smartphone. If I really need a smartphone (and I rarely do) one is always nearby! [Just look for the unresponsive guy/gal standing still in the middle of the parking lot, or traffic, or ...].

But I help my friends and wife with them all the time! After several decades of IT and being on-call 24x7 with one or more devices, most interfaces are easy to decipher.

You're likely far better off because you were not brought up in a smartphone environment.

Are kids allowed to use their phones during class these days?
They might as well be. Making a rule and enforcing it are very different things, and in many schools, enforcing cell phone rules is so impractical that teachers and administrators don't even try very hard anymore.

It partly comes back to parents: if parents won't support a rule, it isn't practical for the school to enforce it. Sometimes what the kids are distracted by on their phone is a non-urgent text from their parents! (Not that there is such a thing as an urgent text... that's what phone calls are for, and parents can always call the main office if an urgent message needs to be conveyed)

I’d say it’s less true than ever. We’ve managed to keep hiring engineers at an alarming rate. We put up ridiculous hiring processes because we have such a strong supply - and we have ridiculously high bars to entry. We have an over abundance of people with PhDs who are underemployed.

Tbh - I’d say we’re over educated even if it seems like the basic systems are not doing well. People are persevering anyway.

What’s not working? We don’t have much funding for academic research that allows people to get paid a reasonable wage that is comparable to private industry (or a change in profession). That’s the only issue and you really just have a capitalistic government to blame for that. If they actually paid well and gave good wages to researchers - we’d have lots more research done. Instead - the research is done for cheap/free by a bunch of shmucks doing their PhDs. The system is working in the capitalists favor.

Radical opinions, just speaking out loud.

Design: Modern design sucks. Everything after 1990, especially after 2000 is completely shit. I truly mean all design. Industrial Design to Architecture to the garbage you see in the browsers today. We threw away physical controls, can't even find them. Alps catalogue is dwindling and toggle switches are no more. Go explore how things used to be done, look up advertisements from 1970's. Also, the Big Tech design monoculture is shit. Everyone suddently in 2020 decided to add rounded corners. It happened almost overnight like a meme spreading through the design circles.

Globalisation: Imagine if you were to travel to Japan in the year 1890. Everyone wore kimonos. It was a prestine, isolated and incredibly rich culture. Same with France or US or any nation. It is fun to explore how US and USSR had invented stuff during the cold war. Russia had their own mechanical watches to titanium alloys. When large groups (millions of people) are isolated, they can create some amazing stuff on their own. Connecting the world with wires was a bad idea. It destroyed cultures into a giant globalised culture. I wish Globalisation didn't happen and the internet was never invented except for highly controlled and regulated uses.

Masks: Facial expressions are key to communication and we've just defaced our selves in public settings, possibly forever. This is not good. Humans evolved to look at faces and see expressions.

Edit: Interesting to see downvotes in a thread about outrageous ideas. It only confirms it!

IMO, a lot of modern design is the result of answering the question, "how can we make this cheaper and mass produced?" instead of, "how can we make this more pleasant to use or look at?"
Agreed, mass-production is another by-product of Globalization for the most part.
There is that. But there's also the "forever redesign" problem.

It goes roughly like this: the designers would always advocate for a redesign, as it is more exciting, and also because it creates more new tasks/jobs for them.

But improving things is hard, and entropy is not on our side. So, it is quite possible that the new grand redesign will be less functional than the battle-tested old one.

If we are lucky, the new design might be at least more aesthetically pleasing. [1]

[1]: Perhaps in part just because aesthetics are a function of fashion, and the new design can be up-to-date with the current trends.

While I'm in agreement that usability has taken a hit in the name of mass production and in UI due to the ubiquity of touchscreens, I suspect a detailed analysis will prove your overall premise to be false. I think there is a standard of beauty and usability that is evolving in a healthy substrate of thought and taste. Some good ideas get losts due to time but will be rediscovered before long. Whilst I am often vexxed by both new and old design choices I am often utterly flawed as things align perfectly with my own tastes. The choices lovingly adhering to a given vision or theme. There are products both timeless and new that are a breeze to use, sparing your time and sanity.
In the 1890s Japan was well into the Meiji era, and was keenly adopting all sorts of Western science, philosophy, and fashion. Russia was also an empire spanning many different cultures. Ditto for France, and the US was well on its way. It's one of the most interesting times in history precisely because so many cultures were mingling in ways they hadn't before.

But I get your point. What we now understand as "globalism" is ideologically and aesthetically revolting. I don't think this ugliness is rooted in diversity, however. On the contrary, it's a product of a monopolistic and imperial form of liberalism. Resisting this drudgery will require more international solidarity against rootless "thought leaders" beholden to no organic culture.

Intelligence will never prolong life that much and it definitely will not get us outside of our own solar system. I think the constraints of nature and biology are just an outer system our neurology evolved within and no matter how much cleverness it can maneuver in its owner, it cannot break the confines of that system.
Leetcode style interviews allow companies to practice ageism under the guise of testing for qualified candidates.
Agreed, but not outrageous IMHO. I'm guessing at least one other ism was practiced, purposefully or not.
This is not outrageous, very possible
Wouldn't it be easier if they just not interview anyone with more than X years of work history?
> Wouldn’t it be easier if they just not interview anyone with more than X years of work history?

No, because leetcode at least superficially seems like it might have some positive connection to performance. The point is for the age discrimination to be covert.

I can write code over fifty. I don’t ask for perfect obscure algorithms, but in this market schmoozing can’t be enough.
Capability Based Security is the only way out of the current tarpit of insecurity that we find ourselves in.

Unix, and everything modeled on it assumes competent users running applications they wrote for their own use. Anything that follows this model can't ever be made secure without rendering it useless well before then.

Capability Based OSs can be just as easy to use as Unix, except for the core assumption that code is to be trusted. When I say capabilities, I mean fine grained ones, like access to a file, which could then even be filtered down to access to part of a file, or read-only, etc.. then passed on to other tasks that require it. It makes permission composable, like being able to make $16.23 from exact change, instead of handing your wallet to the cashier and hoping for the best.

Until Capability Based Security becomes the norm, no nodes on the internet are safe, and it will always be an excuse to clamp down on freedoms. If we are to have freedom, we have to migrate to Capability Based Systems, and then continue on to win the war for general purpose computation, which most people don't even realize is already in play.

If you're old enough, remember shareware and dual floppy drive PCs? You could try out anything, and not worry a bit, because you didn't risk everything to the code you picked up for $2 on a shareware disk, you could always return to a known state. Capability Based Security makes that possible, even with mobile code on the internet.

Sounds similar to what Apple has done with application privacy settings.
I don't know Apple products, but doesn't it sound a lot of like selinux? You explicitly tell the OS which resources can an app use and confine it in that.
I agree. Especially the macOS version generally prompts you for permission to access the screen, or certain folders/file groups. Though I don't get why some things get a yes/no, and for others it tells you to look it up in the security settings yourself, if you want to enable it. But that's more of a usability complaint. Then again we are so accustomed to just say yes, if a dialog asks us, whether we want to do something, I doubt most people would secure their device much better, if this became the norm. Heck, did you see the recent Linus Tech Tips video on using Linux as a mainline system, including for gaming. Linus deinstalled his entire UI, despite the fact that he had to literally type "I am sure that is what I want to do, although core system elements are being uninstalled" in order to approve it, and he is a fucking techy, leagues above your average user. I think for many people using a device that is more restrictive and doesn't allow everything is sadly necessary.
> Though I don't get why some things get a yes/no, and for others it tells you to look it up in the security settings yourself, if you want to enable it

I think the former is the system dialog that comes up when the app officially requests the capability, while the latter is an app dialog—which they pop up instead of officially requesting the capability because if you say "no", that setting is saved, and the app can't officially ask again.

This way, they get to bug you every single time until you say "yes".

Hmm, it is designed exactly the same in all applications independent from manufacturer, so I somehow doubt it.

I have seen applications that also say it in their own UI, but Apple does display a specific dialog telling you that it was blocked, and if you want to enable it, you need to go to the settings and do so.

And it is even document on official Apple pages, so I doubt this is application code: https://developer.apple.com/library/archive/documentation/La...

From https://developer.apple.com/library/archive/documentation/La...

I can't stress enough how different it can be. Instead of letting programs pick files at random after a dialog box, you have the system return a handle (capability) and enforce the choice. As far as the user is concerned, it works the same.
"Application ... settings" is (probably?) still ambient authority - the application has the permission to do XYZ so all parts of the application have permission to do XYZ, and it might be possible to confuse a part of the program that isn't supposed to XYZ into doing so.

Capabilities is about associating the permission to do a thing with the handle you'd do it through; unrelated parts of the program don't know how to talk about the thing so can't do it.

So basically Bitfrost [0]?

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitfrost

(comment deleted)
No, nothing like that at all. Imagine opening a file in a text editor.... the editor pops up a dialog asking you what file to open... and then grabs the file you indicated. It can do this because it has access to everything, so if it gets confused, or subverted, there's zero guarantee that it will do the right thing.

Imagine instead, your text editor called the system to get a capability, which then opened the same dialog, and gave a capability (like a file handle) to the text editor for its use. If it got confused, or subverted, the only thing it could mess up would be that one file.

Things were worse before. Real-mode DOS programs relied on the honor system of software developers. Windows 3.x leaked resources if software developers didn't explicitly release them. Any program could read and write memory and storage wherever it pleased, for the most part.

The reasons we're "stuck" are multifaceted: sheer volume of code, unsafe languages, monolithic kernels, poor UX of security features, and inadequate automated testing (especially of kernel code).

seL4 solves the message-passing performance problem of microkernel designs and offers strict capabilities. One major gotcha in most microkernel designs is the need for multi-process side-effect locks, transactions, and rollbacks for mutating hardware state coherently.

MINIX 3 made some progress by implementing a NetBSD userland.

PS: It's a shame USB didn't include a write-protect tab by default.

MS-DOS wasn't much more than a program loader, it wasn't supposed to protect anything. After your program did its worst, the OS was write protected, and the only thing you could mess up would be any floppy disks that weren't write protected. It was trivial to reset to a known good state.

It was easy to quantify your risk, as it only had write capabilities to the floppy disks without write-protect tabs.

That is what made it possible to just try anything, and not worry about it.

> MS-DOS wasn't much more than a program loader, it wasn't supposed to protect anything. After your program did its worst, the OS was write protected, and the only thing you could mess up would be any floppy disks that weren't write protected.

This is obviously only true of MS-DOS on purely floppy-based systems.

>This is obviously only true of MS-DOS on purely floppy-based systems.

Years ago, it really saddened me to realize that a Dual Floppy IBM PC running MS-DOS was actually the high water mark of secure general purpose computing for the masses.

Here’s an outrageous belief to complement this:

It will never happen. We’re simply not smart enough to create such a system that won’t be too much of an inconvenience for developers and users.

And the underlying cause is that “too much of an inconvenience” is any inconvenience at all.

I'm not convinced that it's actually less convenient than the status quo.
That religion is completely and totally a man made, fictitious, concept. Christianity, Islam, Hinduism, etc... all just mythologies that have no more basis in reality than any work of fiction. It is simply a tool. A tool used to soothe existential angst in the people that need such soothing and that certain others can use to exert control or gain power. This would be absolutely outrageous, to the point of death, in many circles.
Think this is the case as well; it is a handy tool to keep the people in line. My mother often laments that it was so much easier when she was young just making sure she followed the catholic rules and believed she would go to heaven. I wish I believed it (I was raised protestant but found it so ridiculous from a very young age that it did not take; I asked my teachers questions I was not allowed to ask and such); it would make life better I believe; no reason to hunt money or earthly stuff, just live a good and devout life and enjoy yourself with your loved ones after. But I simply cannot; it makes little sense, any of it, when you think about it. But hooray for people who really believe it; they should be far more relaxed than me. Maybe it should be an outrageous claim as well that I think a lot of American believers do not really believe but either make money or use it as a social tool to look good (trump). Which is basically the same as you claim.
This is not an outrageous thought in the scheme of HN or the tech sphere though. I’d say this is the accepted norm and people outside of this are the ones with outrageous thoughts.
You gotta think bigger. This is outrageous in terms of the entire world and human history. There hasn't been a single human civilization that you can classify as having no religion.

He's right when he says that the people who don't believe in religion are the outrageous ones.

I generally agree with this, but kept getting hung up on two things: 1) scientists have shown rather interesting brain activity in different regions during prayer, and 2) every society, seemingly unconnected from each other, has something akin to religion.

If it were just a power grab thousand years ago, how or why did others around the world get the same idea?

1) You mean there is some sort of placebo effect at play? Does this differ from what you see when you meditate? I would assume it differs somewhat at least?

2) A lot of people need something external to believe in, it gives them a sense of purpose and an explanation for what are essentially random lucky/unlucky events. It also gives political power.

There are a lot of personally useful things bundled into religion, prayer being one of them that at is core just looks like meditation, which doesn't necessarily require religion.

Strongly agree it's not just a power grab.. I think the power grab comes after rituals emerge and become common.

I agree that it's fictitious. However I believe that religion is ingrained within out biology. Every human culture and civilization developed religion independently. There is not one example of a human civilization that is only fully practical and has no religion.

The fact that it's completely ubiquitous indicates that religious practices among societies is not a coincidence. The only commonly shared attribute among all civilizations that have existed throughout time is biology and religion.

Such a correlation indicates that religion is highly, highly likely to be biological in origin.

Telepathy. I don't know if that word captures the exact idea I'm trying to convey. Here's another attempt. There are forms of communication and connection between humans (and possibly between humans and other species) that have not yet been systematized. A recent example: my partner and I were in Tahoe, talking about a friend in Brazil, right around the time she died. Sure, we talk about her every now and then, but the timing was just too suspicious. Other examples that come to mind. I have often stood completely still, looking at a person passing a few hundred feet away, and they instinctively turn and lock eyes at my exact location, somehow knowing where I am. Knowing when I'm about to get a text from someone.
After practicing partner dances for over 15 years, it seems to me that it is possible to have a kind of connection with another person that feels like magic — it is so direct and immediate that it does not seem to explainable by our current generally accepted theories of physics and biology (i.e. mirror neurons and the like). It feels like the follower is reading my mind. But I don’t think it is beyond physical world, it is just sonething we don’t yet understand well enough.
For situations where there is physical proximity I get what you're saying. Maybe we're just way better at detecting slight movements, smelling pheromones, etc. than currently understood. Especially when you have a relationship for many years with the person. But that doesn't seem to solve the situations involving large distances.
I call this connection in dancing ”emotional connection” which probably gives the impression that it does not feel ”physical” in the traditional sense. There are various forms of connection possible, for example birds can sense magnetic field and they can fly in formatioms which seem very similar to my experience.
I work in a psychology department, and one of the student thesis projects from this past year was using portable EEG headsets to attempt to determine whether figure skaters doing the same routine synchronize their neural patterns in some way.

Sadly, the equipment was not sophisticated enough to handle the situation yet (the headsets are pretty finicky, and using them while moving around like that, even though it's supposed to be part of their use case, just doesn't give good results yet), so their results were inconclusive. It's definitely an interesting direction, though.

Have danced for a long time as well.

In no way do I feel like it’s telepathic. People are clearly communicating in physical form. I’d just say that as you get better with dancing - you just get more in tune with what emotions are aligned with what type of movement.

I think many people are not very much in their head about it when they’re dancing either. If you’re in your head - actually analyzing what someone is doing physically then you’ll understand where the feeling of telepathy comes from. Dancing is one of those things where I think people who are in their heads a lot can manage to be not in their heads and suddenly - they’re like, “wow, it’s like we telepathically are speaking to one another. I know what they feel and think a bit! But I wasn’t totally in my head analyzing them - how could it be?!” But it’s really that you’ve turned off your speaking mind and just let your brain do the rest.

If you kept the analytical mind on - you’d know what physical cues to read to understand when someone feels happy/sad/safe/uncomfortable.

I know what you mean, and it is a real phenomenon.

What you are describing I call kineetetic connection, and that is what many dancers, even dance teachers think is the only connection that exists. It is practically the only kind is taught in formal dance schools.

I have trained kinestetic connection a lot as well, and really I am talking about very different kind of connection.

Apparently this something else is something that kinestetically gifted people sometimes might have trouble experiencing, because of their strenghts.

You could think that it is as challeging for kinestetic people to dance from the heart as it is for head-people to dance kinestetically. As a head-person I have had to learn everything the hard way.

That people are becoming less and less informed. They're reading less and this is the golden age for propaganda because people think they're smart when they watch documentaries.

Lack of nuance in discussion and simple video explanations about complex issues will lead us down a dark path unless the trajectory changes soon.

Then either the scholars become disproportionately more powerful or are stoned for not having simplistic views.

> Then either the scholars become disproportionately more powerful or are stoned for not having simplistic views.

In sociology, it’s evidently the latter.

Not outrageous at all (except for the last bit, perhaps). I’d be surprised if there isn't some kind of data to back this up.
I reject this.

I’ve given my two kids, now older teens, pretty much free reign to watch what they want and use the Internet as they want.

I was certainly gifted with nice and precocious kids, but still: they both really like watching educational videos. They spend hours every day doing that. The quality and number of these videos is now utterly amazing.

They both have a much greater level of general knowledge than I did at their age. They have a much wider set of interests, a greater awareness of possibilities and opportunities, and correspondingly greater opportunities than I ever did, too.

There weren't any eagles. Frodo made them up when writing down his memoirs, so he wouldn't have to narrate the long, dreary journey from Mount Doom back to Gondor.
s/Frodo/Tolkien and I think you're spot on...
How did Maedhros managed to get off the face of Thangorodrim than?!
VCs invested $146 billion in US based startups in 2020, that's around $500 per citizen. We'd be much better off giving each American $500 democracy dollars to invest in projects / businesses of their choice.
Not sure how much people can achieve with $500, let alone their expertise to be able to make the correct investment choice, let alone their willingness to even use the money in such a smart future-proof way vs just using it for door/school/presents/drinks/whatever - Basically the money would just end up in Amazon/Walmart/J&J/AbInBev pockets at a higher rate .. I think you have too much faith in the average person!
The money would trickle up then to things in highest demand!

But I didn't mean giving people cash to spend on random goods. It would have to be a system that prevents them from using it on personal projects and probably something organized more like kickstarter, where projects have funding goals and you have to allocate a portion of your budget to them.

I'd imagine type 1 diabetics would allocate a large portion of their funds to cheaper insulin alternatives. Software engineers to open source projects that they depend on.

Yeah - seriously. What average person is going to do anything with $500? If you changed it to $50k then maybe you’d get somewhere.

I think many here overestimate the working ethic and adventurous spirit of the average American. From the people I’ve seen - they’ll just spend it on a fancy car.

Agreed, and I think majority of Americans would be "investing" in food, transportation, housing and other basic goods that would benefit normal people more directly than VC investment to Delaware C-Corps.