Russia invaded Ukraine using Belarusian proxy army. Then later arrives as peace keeping force officially.
The Samson option becomes more widely known and talked about in mainstream media. Tensions between Iran and Israel continue to sour. Escalation to targeted assassination of political leaders.
Pandemic ends in Europe as omicron fears overblown and public no longer fears illness after getting it.
Hah I want to believe, but yeah valid question. Multiple things like the footage the pentagon released. Interviews multiple military and political folks have done. Also just a general feeling.
2022 or an adjacent year is one we'll refer back to a lot. It is basically our last chance at reducing the pace of climate change. Either we make policy decisions this year or we continue to argue if we should do option A or B and it's just going to be too little too late. I fear/"predict" 2022 is going to be the year of more debate and few decisions or actions (see also today's thread about nuclear and gas being "green" or not -- that's not the point, the point is stopping emissions).
if we rearrange all taxes to be fees on pollution we have the market solve this problem in no-time. i think a fair and square CO2-eq tax is the only solution that will not require govt to come up with loads of quota/restrictions (which will take decades to setup and will always be unfair to some).
the current situation is a joke: lots of tax at the petrol pump, but not for airplanes. restrictions on plastic bags and straws but subsidies for lifestock and their feed industry.
the current situation is setup for total destruction and the only changes we managed to make were tokens: nothing has made a real dent. because god forbid it changes the status quo. the status quo has all the lobby power, and democracy is a racket.
In the United States Blue refers to the Democratic party, where as Red refers to the Republican (GOP) party. This comment is stating that states that were once controlled by Democrats will cede control to Republicans in the 2022 US mid term elections
1. HN predictions will continue to be a poor predictor.
(HN is wonderful for raw data and technically analysis, but full of prejudice and echo chamber effects, bike shedding, and poorly read young people - just look at the visceral crypto hate vs what's actually happened... and the love for self driving cars... and and and... you have to separate predictions from your desires... worth reading: _Superforecasters_)
2. Incremental improvements to self driving trucks are closed track systems. Little progress in self driving cars and open road systems.
(it's more blocked on regulatory approval, and SDCs are off-trend politically - pandemic/jobs/economy is what matters, and SDCs destroy jobs and give wealth to the 1%, no reason any politician would fight for SDCs right now)
3. More vaccine boosters, especially overseas. Disclosure: I bought MRNA and BNTX)
(Sure, Omicron is "mild" but it's still a major problem when the NYC subway, urgent care facilities etc are shutting down to staff sickouts... wait until Omicron comes to your town... Moderna etc will successfully target Omicron... I'm not forecasting whether Omicron mutates into a more-impactful variant: r0 is already crazy so a new variant would have to outcompete that OTOH there's 1B hosts with Omicron and we were surprised at the number of mutations in Omicron... mutation to being less deadly is NOT assured: look at 1918...)
3. Bitcoin 50+k and maybe 100k.
(Institutions are piling in, and while altcoins are outperforming and stealing marketshare/marketcap, BTC will continue to get allocated first)
4. China bails out its real estate sector. No hard crash.
(It's too big to fail and also too visible. It's a lot of money but CCP can afford it)
5. Trump continues to be marginalized.
(Out of office, he's just not relevant and the signal media bans kinda worked... not that I'm not predicting 2024, where he could easily win if he's up against low energy, uninspiring candidates)
6. AOC and Sanders continue to be marginalized
(don't offer practical solutions - people want careers, not handouts or band aids. Also, they offer no solutions at all to tricky problems like immigration, foreign relations, USG debt, etc etc)
7. NYC (continues to) recover nicely. Measure by GDP.
(it's singular in culture and entertainment, has diversified and integrated industries, and now has practical leadership both city, state & fed... note that it's still ruinously expensive and it won't be any easier for working families...)
8. Remote work remains. Back to office is tepid. Office to residential conversions happen but it's slow.
(Pandemic isn't over and the economics of remote work are simply too compelling. Video and adaptations worked well and continue to improve. I've been working remotely for decades and cut & executed billion dollar deals with people I never met: competitors schlepped on planes while my teams built compelling solutions and compelling demos. Office to residential conversions are slow projects and very expensive)
9. Amazon announces a split-up or parent company structure (e.g. Alphabet) of AWS vs e-commerce. (maybe 2023)
(The two businesses have little synergy... AWS is easily big enough to stand alone, and e-commerce should just be a customer under long term contract... Meanwhile AWS is giving up marketshare to numerous companies that can't use it because of fiduciary responsibility with Amazon e-commerce being a competitor... each division could design new partners e.g. Amazon e-commerce could leverage Google etc )
10. Rust and Python and JavaScript continue to gain marketshare __in open source projects__.
(Linux and Solana are major boosters for Rust: Solana alone is $54 billion bet that depends on rust... closed source continues to depend more on platforms i.e. Azure driving gains for C#)
11. SQL, PostgreSQL and sqlite continue to dominate
(SQL has a 25 year history of copying innovations...
17 comments
[ 2.5 ms ] story [ 191 ms ] threadrussia invades ukraine
GOP wins both house and senate in mid-term election
trump is indicted with financial crimes
The Samson option becomes more widely known and talked about in mainstream media. Tensions between Iran and Israel continue to sour. Escalation to targeted assassination of political leaders.
Pandemic ends in Europe as omicron fears overblown and public no longer fears illness after getting it.
Alien disclosure.
What's with the "alien disclosure" predictions both this year and last year?
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25608034
What leads you to believe that there has been a cover-up of an alien encounter? Not mocking, just curious.
the current situation is a joke: lots of tax at the petrol pump, but not for airplanes. restrictions on plastic bags and straws but subsidies for lifestock and their feed industry.
the current situation is setup for total destruction and the only changes we managed to make were tokens: nothing has made a real dent. because god forbid it changes the status quo. the status quo has all the lobby power, and democracy is a racket.
2. Bitcoin crash to 20K or less. Raise questions about web3/crypto.
3. End of the pandemic actually crash the stock market.
What I hope for:
1. Breakthrough in unsupervised learning, leading the way to semi AGI.
2. Breakthrough in combination of logic AI and DNN.
2. Omicron is now seen as a mass immunisation event that lead to the end of the pandemic
3. Most Blue States turn Red
4. Something akin to P2P Substack rises
5. Moderna's shares trade horizontally
6. Gold oz. price crosses 2k USD
What does that mean?
(HN is wonderful for raw data and technically analysis, but full of prejudice and echo chamber effects, bike shedding, and poorly read young people - just look at the visceral crypto hate vs what's actually happened... and the love for self driving cars... and and and... you have to separate predictions from your desires... worth reading: _Superforecasters_)
2. Incremental improvements to self driving trucks are closed track systems. Little progress in self driving cars and open road systems.
(it's more blocked on regulatory approval, and SDCs are off-trend politically - pandemic/jobs/economy is what matters, and SDCs destroy jobs and give wealth to the 1%, no reason any politician would fight for SDCs right now)
3. More vaccine boosters, especially overseas. Disclosure: I bought MRNA and BNTX)
(Sure, Omicron is "mild" but it's still a major problem when the NYC subway, urgent care facilities etc are shutting down to staff sickouts... wait until Omicron comes to your town... Moderna etc will successfully target Omicron... I'm not forecasting whether Omicron mutates into a more-impactful variant: r0 is already crazy so a new variant would have to outcompete that OTOH there's 1B hosts with Omicron and we were surprised at the number of mutations in Omicron... mutation to being less deadly is NOT assured: look at 1918...)
3. Bitcoin 50+k and maybe 100k.
(Institutions are piling in, and while altcoins are outperforming and stealing marketshare/marketcap, BTC will continue to get allocated first)
4. China bails out its real estate sector. No hard crash.
(It's too big to fail and also too visible. It's a lot of money but CCP can afford it)
5. Trump continues to be marginalized.
(Out of office, he's just not relevant and the signal media bans kinda worked... not that I'm not predicting 2024, where he could easily win if he's up against low energy, uninspiring candidates)
6. AOC and Sanders continue to be marginalized
(don't offer practical solutions - people want careers, not handouts or band aids. Also, they offer no solutions at all to tricky problems like immigration, foreign relations, USG debt, etc etc)
7. NYC (continues to) recover nicely. Measure by GDP.
(it's singular in culture and entertainment, has diversified and integrated industries, and now has practical leadership both city, state & fed... note that it's still ruinously expensive and it won't be any easier for working families...)
8. Remote work remains. Back to office is tepid. Office to residential conversions happen but it's slow.
(Pandemic isn't over and the economics of remote work are simply too compelling. Video and adaptations worked well and continue to improve. I've been working remotely for decades and cut & executed billion dollar deals with people I never met: competitors schlepped on planes while my teams built compelling solutions and compelling demos. Office to residential conversions are slow projects and very expensive)
9. Amazon announces a split-up or parent company structure (e.g. Alphabet) of AWS vs e-commerce. (maybe 2023)
(The two businesses have little synergy... AWS is easily big enough to stand alone, and e-commerce should just be a customer under long term contract... Meanwhile AWS is giving up marketshare to numerous companies that can't use it because of fiduciary responsibility with Amazon e-commerce being a competitor... each division could design new partners e.g. Amazon e-commerce could leverage Google etc )
10. Rust and Python and JavaScript continue to gain marketshare __in open source projects__.
(Linux and Solana are major boosters for Rust: Solana alone is $54 billion bet that depends on rust... closed source continues to depend more on platforms i.e. Azure driving gains for C#)
11. SQL, PostgreSQL and sqlite continue to dominate
(SQL has a 25 year history of copying innovations...