Unlikely. Not saying that there's no effect, but even without COVID it's already setting alarms at CCP.
The declining population of China is a well-known problem so much that its one-child policy was progressively loosened and the scrapped altogether. Essentially, if the Chinese people (collectively) decide to focus on growing a 3+ child family, this population crunch will decline, but it seems that in major urban areas the people in general voiced that the policies might not be pro-family enough to reverse this shrinkage (with even some pointing to practices that indirectly discourage bringing up a family like workplace discrimination on pregnant women).
Although I don't have any data to back it up, but I think the financial burden on children of one-child policy to support their parents made many of them turn away from having kids. It's already hard enough to support their parents, why make it even hard by supporting another generation. So now, it's a downward spiral where only the financially secure will choose to have kids.
CCP certainly succeeded in curbing the population. The question now is whether they can reverse course. My gut feeling is that as China becomes more developed, people will want less kids (as everything gets more expensive), making it likely they will fail.
According to Google, China only really had a problem with Covid for about one month in the beginning. Since then, country wide, cases have been in the tens per day.
- Since China controlled the pandemic via strict lockdown, where one cannot leave their apartments / housing compound for ANY reason, couples would be bored and get busy in bed to pass the time, resulting in a surge in birth rate.
- Also because of the strict lockdown, couples would be wary of having babies in such uncertainty. For example, if a woman gets pregnant and their compound goes into lockdown, she would have trouble getting prenatal care. Even if they can go to the hospital, they are afraid they will get COVID there.
So far it seems the second theory is closer to truth.
This, I believe, is the reason for so much of the recent pro-china nationalism and retreat to ever greater aggression in international relations coming out of the communist party of China. The economic miracle is over and economy is about to enter a deep recession. They need to rally the party die-hards.
The question I have is how far does the rhetoric go? What does the modern communist party do when times aren’t good.
Say you're in China's position. The base of your power is your economy, and that's predicated on your workforce. That workforce is now at it's peak, and will shrink as people retire faster than they graduate from school. As your workforce shrinks and greys, companies are going to look elsewhere for cheap labour and your economic clout will decline.
What do you do?
There are things working in your favour, such as the inertia of supply chains. But that inertia is finite. You can try to negate the problem. Bet big on automation. Will that become cost effective soon enough, and will foreign owned companies choose to run automated factories in a foreign country when they could run it in their backyard? You can offer incentives to families to have more children (China has already done this), but can you afford to make them big enough to work? Ultimately, you have to plan for the case in which all else fails and your power declines.
What's almost as good as a continually growing workforce? The wealth and resources to command other nations' workforces. Hence, the Belt and Road initiative. Bake China's current wealth into the foundations of a global trade empire, and bind those it connects to China.
Buy control of resources expected to be crucial in the coming decades, such as rare earth minerals.
Also, grab as much territory as quickly as you can while you're powerful enough that the world might not say, "No". Build islands. Pressure other nations to get out of "your" territorial waters. Reabsorb Taiwan. etc..
Xi Jinping is getting his while the getting is good.
China can change directions very quickly. If the CCP decides that more babies are needed then more baby factories will be swiftly created. They have transcended JIT manufacturing. Don't underestimate this great nation.
China now have third child policy but young people are not buying it, we are too stressed out to even considering having kids… crazy housing market, expensive education, intense competition, just big NO THANKS
no body wants over population and urban squalor ... china should invest its new found wealth in continuing to depopulate ... its short term pain for long term gain
21 comments
[ 2.9 ms ] story [ 25.4 ms ] threadThis video considers India the next production hub, especially considering young vs. old population ratio: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKNPP8nwD_E
The declining population of China is a well-known problem so much that its one-child policy was progressively loosened and the scrapped altogether. Essentially, if the Chinese people (collectively) decide to focus on growing a 3+ child family, this population crunch will decline, but it seems that in major urban areas the people in general voiced that the policies might not be pro-family enough to reverse this shrinkage (with even some pointing to practices that indirectly discourage bringing up a family like workplace discrimination on pregnant women).
CCP certainly succeeded in curbing the population. The question now is whether they can reverse course. My gut feeling is that as China becomes more developed, people will want less kids (as everything gets more expensive), making it likely they will fail.
[0]: https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/07/china/china-xian-outbreak-ana...
- Since China controlled the pandemic via strict lockdown, where one cannot leave their apartments / housing compound for ANY reason, couples would be bored and get busy in bed to pass the time, resulting in a surge in birth rate.
- Also because of the strict lockdown, couples would be wary of having babies in such uncertainty. For example, if a woman gets pregnant and their compound goes into lockdown, she would have trouble getting prenatal care. Even if they can go to the hospital, they are afraid they will get COVID there.
So far it seems the second theory is closer to truth.
The question I have is how far does the rhetoric go? What does the modern communist party do when times aren’t good.
What do you do?
There are things working in your favour, such as the inertia of supply chains. But that inertia is finite. You can try to negate the problem. Bet big on automation. Will that become cost effective soon enough, and will foreign owned companies choose to run automated factories in a foreign country when they could run it in their backyard? You can offer incentives to families to have more children (China has already done this), but can you afford to make them big enough to work? Ultimately, you have to plan for the case in which all else fails and your power declines.
What's almost as good as a continually growing workforce? The wealth and resources to command other nations' workforces. Hence, the Belt and Road initiative. Bake China's current wealth into the foundations of a global trade empire, and bind those it connects to China.
Buy control of resources expected to be crucial in the coming decades, such as rare earth minerals.
Also, grab as much territory as quickly as you can while you're powerful enough that the world might not say, "No". Build islands. Pressure other nations to get out of "your" territorial waters. Reabsorb Taiwan. etc..
Xi Jinping is getting his while the getting is good.