"In addition to defects in the fog light and the low beam, the Model S at the HU mainly has problems with the wishbones. " so not a lot of information in there either.
I happened to watch a Munro Model S Plaid teardown last night, and they were talking about a new “virtual ball” wheel link that they thought was interesting/curious.. I would think novelties in wheel-to-vehicle connections would be a solved matter, obviously not.
Not a riveting video per se, but somewhat on topic…
Wrench monkeys in the intro are working with face gags (non N95 masks), but the Munro himself can do it without one. Tells a lot about this old geezer.
The Munro guys have talked about how rapidly Tesla quality has advanced— going from amateur on early model s to impressive of later model 3s. I wonder how much of this is that early amateur hour stuff? I take the Munro guys opinion pretty seriously.
Due to how long they’ve been making the S now I’d say it’s more likely to be a couple of specific manufacturing issues, like the wishbones and dipped beams mentioned.
I don't take this guy too serious. He seem to know little about what has been happening in car engineering for the last 30 years, and I am not a car engineer, having to say that.
That company literally worked on many major car projects for those 30 years. What do you think have they been doing? They were involved in the RAM truck overall that made it really popular for example.
Their costumers are literally car companies who want to know if competitors are using new technologies that they might be able to use.
If you want to see an example of what the produce, check out this report that they sold for 10$ (usually these cost many 100k$). This is a 23,793 pages report on every details and new technology in the i3.
He also fell for Plasma Kinetics grift which seems to run into some basic physics problems https://youtube.com/watch?v=-8NQkOeRNpg so I am not sure in how far Munro can be trusted on things which are not fasteners.
Munro praised the heat pump design in newer Model 3/Ys which are now failing at pretty high rates in dangerously cold conditions. I don't doubt that the design is very clever and efficient, but I wouldn't take Munro's approval as an indication of how reliable a design will be into the future and in extreme (i.e. non-Californian) conditions.
They failed to fix it with the first OTA update. As far as I'm aware we don't really know if the second OTA has fixed it entirely, if its just switching to the "motor slip" mode of heating sooner, or if we will see more failures in the future.
Either way I think the point stands that Munro's analysis didn't catch this possible failure mode.
Are you at least going to acknowledge the fact that Tesla can, in span of a few days, and then few days after, push multiple fixes to its entire fleet of vehicles whereas any other manufacturer would have had to physically get those cars in, pay for labor, hire cars, etc.
Are you aware of how often other cars of any brand/class are recalled for issues that Tesla simply pushes OTA to fix? Issues that never makes the news (dozens per week of them) while the OTA does? If you don't know, I suggest you look into it.
The first OTA was last winter, not a couple days before the next OTA. I am glad that Tesla has started to drag everyone else forward with software updates but I think the heat pump issue is still a valuable data point for evaluating Tesla's engineering prowess and methodology. You can't hotfix every mechanical issue and I think you could argue that Tesla's methodology can lead to more rapid improvements but more unexpected problems than the more cautious approach of other manufacturers.
I don't know if it still exists, but the comprehensive TÜV inspections in Germany used to create a sort of grey market for US military people stationed there. Personal vehicles for US military were plated by the US government, and weren't subject to the TÜV. So you could get otherwise nice german cars at bargain prices, with the caveat that you had really no idea why they failed. It could be something like emissions issues, or something safety related, but subtle and hard to find.
The 10% is not as bad as it sounds, because the author fails to mention that these statistics are heavily in favour of expensive cars with a good dealership network. And Tesla has no dealerships at all, as far as I know.
When you own something like a BMW, you typically don't drive the car to the inspection yourself. Especially not if it's a leased or company car. Instead, you bring your car to the dealership (or they will pick it up), they inspect the car, fix any issues they encounter and only then bring in an official inspector for the actual inspection. This way, the inspector will hardly find any issues. Also, dealerships typically don't chose TÜV, but one of their competitors that do the inspection at the dealership.
TÜV is where people go who want to save money by skipping the dealership. Most people who do this drive cheaper cars. That's why cheap cars are always having much worse numbers in these statistics. They are alternative statistics, like ADAC's (Germany's equivalent to AAA), but they all have the same problem. There are no good statistics for German cars. They all favour expensive German brands because those who the statistics will never see a broken car. The dealerships will always take care of that. I'd rather trust US-based Consumer Reports than TÜV or ADAC statistics.
Tesla is a luxury brand, yet one out of ten Teslas manages to show up with suspension problems at the 3-year roadworthiness inspection. That's quite something - one would think that the suspension is a solved problem, cars have has suspensions for over 100 years, coaches before that. That's just another symptom of appalling quality control.
Certainly true, but when German brands have similar issues, it will never show in the statistics. A 10% fail-rate would bother me if I bought a Tesla, but I know that there were German cars with extreme reliability issues that never showed up in statistics. Like VWs and Audis with early DSG transmissions. Car forums were full with people who experienced it, and I personally know people whose cars had these issues.
It's the suspension bit that's worrying. When the excessively complex transmission fails you have the vehicle towed to the shop, but the suspension is a safety issue (and you do wonder - if 10 % showed up at the inspection with problems how many owners had their suspension fixed because the car handled funny).
TÜV is not about general car defects or problems like failing transmissions or the infamous camshaft chain failure of VW engines. TÜV is about failures of your car which prevents it from secure operation like failing head lamps, suspession problems and so on.
Yes, but ADAC statistics include failures and suffer from the same issues. If a three year old BMW breaks down, most owners will call BMW, not the ADAC.
(And some car brands will actually send the ADAC to help you, but they have contracts to make sure it won’t appear in the official ADAC statistics)
Yeah, they are very different statistics. TÜV checks if your car is safe to drive on roads, and everybode is obligated to do so every second year (except the first one which is after 3 years). I don't know what ADAC is counting, broken cars on highways probably. :)
3 years lifespan for suspension is unacceptably and inexcusably short. No one is asking for parts immune from wear and tear but people should be able to expect at least a status quo.
Adjustable height air suspension is only in new Teslas, and only specific models. Most cars hitting the 3 year inspection would not have that feature yet. I think older S had a more traditional suspension.
The technology has existed for the better part of 100 years now, and only myopic number crunchers who drove American car manufacturers to the ground kept the suspension from going into the mustang.
However, the Escalade should probably still have leaf suspensions. Its a bloody truck!
Tesla's have adjustable height, adjustable response, and 4 wheel independent suspension.
None of which are new to production cars. Off the top of my head, Lincoln and Mercedes are two brands that had such features when I worked on them…back in the 80s (though forward-looking adjustment might be more recent, I seem to recall Lincoln had a system that would adjust the rear on-the-fly based on what the front suspension was doing).
So if the implication is Tesla’s on the cutting edge or something, I would bet Tesla could have purchased off-the-shelf parts, and had a choice in vendors, to build their suspension.
> The Ford mustang and Cadillac escalade have adopted rear independent suspension for the first time in the last 5 years.
Those are rare outside of the USA for a reason.
> Tesla's have adjustable height, adjustable response, and 4 wheel independent suspension.
Which were pioneered by Citroen. Who ironically arn't know for reliability, but we can surmise from this report that even Citroen are more reliable than a tesla.
I bet you people were going fast with Teslas on not perfect roads. I have been doing that as well with my BMW, and the huge potholes that I don't always see made lots of damage to my suspension that I didn't have with slower cars.
The great thing when you’re talking statistics is you can basically average over all cars, although not being German there are some interesting points being raised in here about who takes their car where for their registration check. Regardless, the underlying assumption is that a similar proportion of all vehicles arrives at the servicing centre and STILL Tesla is failed at a ~10% rate, so, underlying assumption being similar driving habits (which you have to have) your comment doesn’t compute
Author lumped together suspension and headlight problems, we do not know the split between these two issues, but they carry vastly different consequences
In contrast, there shouldn't be anything in a suspension system failing after three years. Perhaps they inspect for a torn boot, but I wouldn't expect cracks in castings or sheared fasteners.
>Headlights in 3years? There is no reason anything to happen to properly driven LEDs in 3y. That's junior level of engineering.
That's a bit of a exaggeration, plenty can go wrong with LED headlights.
A single bad solder might knock out a bank of LEDs. Bad weather stripping can let water in and short something out. You can hit a bump and knock a connection loose.
They'll also fail you for improperly adjusted headlights, beam pattern and such. I bet the lights are blinding oncoming traffic because they "self-adjusted" or automatic leveling software somehow fails.
>I bet the lights are blinding oncoming traffic because they "self-adjusted"
That would be quite hilarious, of course if it was not dangerous. It's hard to imagine how they would not switch off the "high beams", if it was lit enough.
The one BMW I had was in the shop for a week to fix the rear brake lights, at only 12 or 15 months old.
The idea that luxury brands do not have problems is not something I have ever seen evidenced by owners. Some luxury brands are know for needing continual repairs.
The opinion of luxury equaling low repair rate is simply not anything I've ever heard before. Are you staying that it is? I added an anecdote with my personal experience, but an anecdote neither proves a point nor refutes it.
Anecdotes of appaling BMW reliability are so prevalent in the online enthusiast car communities, and shade tree mechanic workarounds are so well doumented, that I would question any statistics measuring otherwise. Lies, damned lies, and statistics...
That doesn't make 10% not bad. But lets exclude expensive cars. How come Tesla is worse than cheap cars then?
> The worst by far, however, was the Tesla Model S. 10.7 percent of the model showed up for testing with a defect of some sort. Not only was this the worst EV in the study, the Model S placed third-to-last out of all cars, including ICE vehicles, only besting the Dacia Logan and Dacia Duster.
But even so, another huge factor is how expensive it is to fix the typical errors. Is it $5 in parts and 2 minutes you can do yourself or $1000 and two days at a shop?
> That doesn't make 10% not bad. But lets exclude expensive cars. How come Tesla is worse than cheap cars then?
Even when you buy a brand new cheap car, like a Dacia, you typically go to your dealership for inspections in the first couple of years. The percentage of owners who do this is certainly lower than for the premium brands, but still much higher than for Tesla if Tesla doesn't have any dealerships that offer the HU+AU inspections (that's what they are called).
In other words Tesla with their expensive cars doesn't even offer the service that even the cheapest other manufacturers offer. So they essentially push the onto their customers
> But even so, another huge factor is how expensive it is to fix the typical errors. Is it $5 in parts and 2 minutes you can do yourself or $1000 and two days at a shop?
It could be that their first aid kit is out of compliance, those tests are really strict about things like that.
What's strange is that Dacias are extremely reliable. They're built with 10-15 year old Renault components, which means they'll never be cutting edge, but they have great hindsight on what is reliable and what isn't
> What's strange is that Dacias are extremely reliable.
I'm Romanian and I was very surprised seeing this chart because, yes, relatively speaking they are pretty reliable. I think this part of OP's comment explains it best why that happened:
> TÜV is where people go who want to save money by skipping the dealership. Most people who do this drive cheaper cars. That's why cheap cars are always having much worse numbers in these statistics.
As Dacia are some of the cheapest models on the market that would explain this chart.
YouTube complainers seem to think that it's more like six weeks in the shop. They post recordings of service calls where Tesla says things like, "Sorry the parts are not available. Tesla's priority is making new cars, not service and repairs," which is pretty shocking to hear.
A primary point of complaint in the report are the breaks. In an electrical vehicle most of the time you break by using the engine as generator instead of using the breaking pads. Since they aren't used they corrode. In a cheap Dacia you don't have that luxury.
"TÜV is where people go who want to save money by skipping the dealership."
I would just add, that most normal car repair stations offer that service, too. Meaning your repair guy takes your car in, checks and fixes everything - and takes it to the TÜV.
(and often they know the TÜV guy quite well, so also in germany there quite some cars with substandard safety)
Maybe you missed this part: "Model S placed third-to-last out of all cars, including ICE vehicles, only besting the Dacia Logan and Dacia Duster." I.e., it is not only (seemingly?) worse than expensive cars, but also scores at the bottom of cheap and budget cars. The only cars worse are the cheap Romanian Dacia rebrands of Renault cars.
If Tesla has no dealerships that offer HU+AU inspections, almost 100% of all Teslas will go to the TÜV without prior inspection by a dealership. But even owners of brand new Dacias will typically let the dealership take care of it.
Yeah, that's a weird line of argument. Because there is nominally no dealership, it's impossible to have your Tesla taken care of before doing the HU? I guess Teslas are produced - and then just rot away, and there's nothing we can do about it?
That's what surprised me the most in this report - Dacias have a great reputation for reliability! They've got the benefit of 10 years' hindsight on the Renault parts bin. I wonder if there aren't other factors at work (e.g. people driving the cheapest possible cars aren't bringing them in for regular dealer maintenance?)
Yes there is, because you already have hindsight on what will break often and what won’t. Dacia have the luxury of being able to take the reliable stuff and drop the unreliable stuff
Former German, same here. Personally I've never heard of people bringing their cars to the dealership which then does the TÜV for them.
People do often bring new cars to a dealership for regular inspections, similar to many other countries, where these kinds of problems would be caught. Still, I wouldn't expect these basic problems to show up in a pretty much brand new car but I'm no expert so who knows if that's reasonable.
Tesla has plenty dealerships they just don’t call them that they are primarily focused on servicing cars with a small sales showroom attached. Everyone orders online though regardless of wether they go see the car in a show room ahead of time.
"Tesla is the least reliable car brand. Owners of a Tesla report problems with their car more often than drivers of other brands. Those looking to take advantage of salon conditions in the coming weeks had better grab our ranking of most reliable car brands."
So it's TÜV, Consumer Reports and Test Aankoop where Tesla scores poorly, and they are all very recent.
Edit: "Test Aankoop is an association that informs, defends and represents consumers in Belgium. We work in complete independence, financially, politically and ideologically." - translated
The graph of Test Aankoop also gives numbers on overall owner hapiness. Even while being last in terms of reliability, it scores 2nd in terms of overall hapiness (right after Porsche). So it must not be that bad, right?
Are you talking about all Teslas or some particular model? I am looking into the current Model X and it seems to have more problems than HVAC and panel alignment. Even the most reliable in their ratings Model 3 has dings for "body integrity" (which apparently stands for squeaks, rattles, wind noise and broken seals), "body hardware" (latches, locks, power windows etc) and "power equipment" (all small moving and illuminating stuff, probably wipers in this case) on top of the "paint/trim" and HVAC you mentioned (unless you meant panel alignment to be the body integrity issue then you get paint/trim issues).
It's always an 'on balance' determination vis a vie what owners care about.
Yes, not everything fits right in my 2018 Model 3. The right headlight is not flush with the hood. You can hear that the windows aren't secured when rolled down and you close the door.
Everything else is brilliant. 95k miles in, I've had zero drive train or mechanical issues. Three sets of tires and an underbody shield that tore when I hit 6" of standing water at 70mph. Conversely, the punch when you hit the accelerator is exhilarating, takes curves flat and fast, the sound system is excellent, it's so quiet, I can drive for hours without physical discomfort, the seat material is durable and doesn't scuff or fade.
I drove a 328i for 20 years that I loved dearly. I haven't given it a 2nd thought since buying the Tesla.
As a fellow 2018 Model 3 owner (70k miles), I concur.
If you look at the reasons CR gave them a low score, it's fit and finish + the HVAC system (which have seen some pretty drastic changes since our vehicles in 2018).
My experience, brand new the condenser pump was too close to the frame (causing a knocking sound). A mobile tech came out, added a rubber pad, and it's been perfect ever since.
When I read the consumer report article listing panel alignment as a reliability issue, I'm suspect. I'm not trying to ignore the fact that it's pretty terrible for tesla to pay so little attention to these things, especially at the price, at at the same time the issues these cars have are generally both cheap/free to repair (especially since they are often caught at the point of sale) and then done for the life of the car.
Side note: My prior car, a ford edge, was WAY worse in reliability towards it's EOL (130k). By the time it got there, the fan belt had cut through the brake line (Um, wtf?), the brake master cylinder had sprung a leak, the alternator went out, the battery died, and the transmission was on it's way out, the HVAC failed and the compressor needed to be replaced. All fairly spendy repairs from regular operations. That's not to mention the regular oil/fluid changes, brake changes, and new tires.
Sure, could be. I could imagine that as cars get more expensive, "happiness" with a car comes more from the satisfaction of owning a luxurious car and less from its reliability. I would imagine that someone who owns a Lamborghini is happy about it, but they are anything but reliable. On the flip side, reliability is kind of the point when you buy a Toyota.
Not really. Could be the case that if you're in the 90ish percent that has no problems, you love your car, but if you're in the 10% bucket you're screwed.
Similar analogy: I love JetBlue, when there aren't any problems. Wider seat pitch, better entertainment system, good value. When there are problems though, it's a nightmare. Once my flight was cancelled due to "weather" (mind you it was a beautiful sunny day, and I counted one other cancelled flight on the entire airport departure board). JetBlue said they could get me on a flight 3 days later, and gave 0 assistance getting on another airline because they don't have any of the "peering" relationships other airlines have. All they did was refund my money the day of, and no compensation because it was for "weather".
This jives generally with what I've heard about Teslas: people fanatically love the cars, except when autopilot steers you into a truck or a concrete divider.
>This jives generally with what I've heard about Teslas: people fanatically love the cars, except when autopilot steers you into a truck or a concrete divider.
Probably the halo effect of ‘doing good’ by driving an EV. It’s like when people choose to use the bank with a less slick app, website, local offices etc but that does ethical banking. The service is objectively worse, but those users probably rate their overal happiness with the bank very high.
The driving experience in an EV is objectively better, on the whole, than a gas car. The climate factor doesn't weigh into the driving experience. It's the instant torque, the always-full-in-the-morning home charging, the lack of smell and noise, the easy maintenance, and (in the case of Tesla) the in-car computing environment.
It's not about the "smug" or "halo" factor. If it were, why would so many people be lining up to buy the electric F-150?
That ‘objectively better driving experience’ rates almost dead last in reliability. Charging can be a negative as well, if your ‘tank’ is nearly empty it’s a 2 minute top-up with gas but a 30-60 minute wait with a BEV.
You are not allowed to do maintenance on your Tesla, everything is locked down.
You are literally the “smug” you are protesting.
And I say all these things as a guy that wants all cars to become BEV as soon as possible (well, I’d rather have public transit be prioritized, but people are egotistical and shitty).
The point is that people aren't buying EVs because of feel-good environmental sentiment. They are buying them because the cars fit well into their lifestyle.
It certainly seems to be the case that reliability isn't that bad for the typical owner. Of course, if more people than the initial enthusiastic buyers start driving Teslas, the satisfaction might decline.
FWIW, I did a quick calculation and satisfaction and reliability aren't really correlated (coefficient of 0.17). Fiddling with a few other models didn't find much more of a connection.
> "Tesla ranks almost dead-last on Consumer Reports reliability list"
I find this laughable. We're on our 3rd Tesla and we've never had anything even hinting of a reliability issue/getting stranded. There is absolutely no maintenance outside of consumables, which is really just tires, as the brake pads last the life of the car if you drive it as it's meant to be driven (regen); maybe windshield washer fluid? There've been a small number of minor things, like a seat belt tensioner on one of the three started rattling. They came and fixed it in my garage. 12V battery was on its way out on our oldest Tesla, car gave a message ahead of it dying (so, proactively avoided leaving us stranded by using software to interpret collected measurements), Tesla came and replaced it in my garage in 10 min for free. New cars are supposed to get Li-Ion 12V batteries soon standard, so the company is purposefully improving reliability. (Note: yes, Teslas have a 12V battery for auxiliary/emergency power, i.e. in case you run the EV battery all the way down you can still operate door locks etc).
Just doesn't add up calling cars that are known to intrinsically be super low maintenance and have much lower part count/complexity unreliable. Everyone I know who drives a Tesla has the same experience: zero maintenance, replace tires every 30-40k miles or when you get a flat and that's pretty much it. One of the main reasons I highly prefer EVs is because of reliability and lack of maintenance. Something seems fishy here.
The suspension arm of my colleague’s Tesla broke. He showed me the broken part. It was something that should never break.
My other colleague’s Tesla had multiple major issues, including one that requires an engine to be replaced.
They both still bought a new Tesla after that, and so did I, because they’re just so fun to drive, but your anecdotal evidence doesn’t disprove a fact about a 10% failure rate.
Besides that, it's still anecdotal. There's a whole array of issues with Tesla's Quality.
Now that they got some competition in the top segment they dropped to only 25,000 Tesla S/Y delivered last year. They need to seriously improve their quality control if they don't want to be wiped out in the mid segment too.
So California expires car pool stickers that let you use the hov lane after 4 years. The only way you can get a new one is to buy a new car. (I believe they are phasing the program out). It probably explains why the commenter has 3 in 10 years.
The internet is to create a robust market for electric cars. The complaint is that it favors rich consumers.
Perhaps driving 155mph or up to 200mph (max speeds of the various Model S) as it is possible in Germany puts another level of stress on the suspension and they start to fail prematurely. Maintenance is not the same as reliability. So not laughable at all.
Fun bit of history: When Buell started selling their motorbikes in Germany, the motorcycles didn’t survive being driven large stretches on the autobahn - which lead to the famous recall party in Oschersleben where some of the factory team flew in from the US to fix and upgrade Buell motorcycles.
Where do you live? I have the suspicion that the experiences vary mostly by region, where the bay area and other big american areas have relatively good service, but other areas are considerably worse.
You're on your 3rd Tesla? My parents still have their 2001 Camry and I still have my 2006 Corolla.
3rd Tesla in what, 10 years? is nothing to brag about...actually - to use your words, I find this laughable that somehow you think you've pushed your Teslas enough to see any hint of reliability issues.
It could be that the lack of maintenance is the issue. When I take my car to the dealer for an oil change it goes on a lift and gets looked over by a mechanic (I get a video of this, so this is how I know). Tesla it not a magic carpet, it has the same suspension, brakes, tires etc. as a normal car. How often a regular Tesla gets lifted and its undercarriage is looked over? Perhaps not as often as every 10K miles when an oil change happens on my car?
And a Lithium 12V battery is not more reliable than a regular acid-lead. You can get an aftermarket one for any ICE car and some come with it as standard. It's only good in a warm climate though because in cold weather it will lose charge quickly unlike an acid-lead.
Once you say Consumer Reports, you throw all credibility out the window. I read some of their "reports" sometimes in my fields of expertise. Basically they have absolutely no idea what they are talking about. Being biased is one thing, incompetency is another.
That doesn't add up. No one pays for a full inspection and TÜV on top because no one expects a 3 year old car to fail it. It's not just slightly inflated either, 10% is twice of the average and the problems seem concentrated around suspension, a part that isn't expected to fail until much, much later in the car lifecycle - hardly the result of average wear and tear.
Oh come on, it is very well known that the Tesla S has ridiculous problems with the headlights (enclosure not water-tight, dimming DRLs, just to mention the most glaring ones). Likewise, the problem with the control arm is nothing new. Unfortunately for Tesla, this is something that the TÜV actually checks for.
As a German I can't attest most of the stuff you wrote.
You go to TÜV directly when you know/think that your car won´t fail the inspection. Otherwise you bring it to the dealership or an independent garage beforehand (in case of the Tesla or if you want so save money). They will fix the stuff for you and then introduce it to inspection. No matter if you drive a BMW, Dacia or Tesla. And TÜV is not cheaper, they want more or less all the same amount of money.
These statistics of TÜV are not about broken cars, it's about road safety. Broken head lamps, failing breaks, rubbers at suspension is brittle, .... These kind of things. And yes, most(not all) German cars won't fail at these things in the first five or so years. And yes, there were cars with bad transmission (DSG), failing engines and so on, but these problems are not counted in the TÜV statistics.
> The 10% is not as bad as it sounds, because the author fails to mention that these statistics are heavily in favour of expensive cars with a good dealership network. And Tesla has no dealerships at all, as far as I know.
Tesla has dealerships, but this is irrelevant. You are referring to garages, which can be included within a dealership. If you bought a car, you can opt into these contracts. Otherwise you can become a customer of any garage.
All cars were compared.
There are still 10% of teslas, who can not successfuly survive the initial inspection without additional maintenance.
> When you own something like a BMW, you typically don't drive the car to the inspection yourself. Especially not if it's a leased or company car. Instead, you bring your car to the dealership (or they will pick it up), they inspect the car, fix any issues they encounter and only then bring in an official inspector for the actual inspection. This way, the inspector will hardly find any issues. Also, dealerships typically don't chose TÜV, but one of their competitors that do the inspection at the dealership.
This is valid for any car, regardless of its age or brand, if a garage presents your vehicle for inspection. No need to refer to "german car brands".
Also competitors need to respect the same criterias.
> TÜV is where people go who want to save money by skipping the dealership.
The price for the check is fixed. You only fail the check, if there are crucial safety issues or oil leaks.
The majority of car owners is thankful for a safety hint from the inspector.
> Most people who do this drive cheaper cars. That's why cheap cars are always having much worse numbers in these statistics.
That is an assumption.
> They are alternative statistics, like ADAC's (Germany's equivalent to AAA), but they all have the same problem. There are no good statistics for German cars. They all favour expensive German brands because those who the statistics will never see a broken car.
This is a biased assumption.
> The dealerships will always take care of that. I'd rather trust US-based Consumer Reports than TÜV or ADAC statistics.
The dealership only takes care of problems iff you either signed an maintenance contract and additional insurance, the issue needs to be solved due to warranty or you accept the charges neccessary to fix the problems.
It simply _is_ the case that tesla has a lower quality then any other europe car brand. Dacia is on the same level as tesla in terms of haptics - but their internas (chassis, engine, bearings..., etc.) are siblings of mature brands.
The TÜV is responsible for checking for safety - Inspectors will get their license permanently revoked if they did not spot an serious issue. I would trust TÜV over any american report.
When an accident happens and a certain money cap is reached, insurances will investigate and escalate to anybody. The TÜV will not prefer any car brand and take these risks.
You do also insult any inspector (DEKRA, GTU or TÜV) by promoting such implications.
> if a garage presents your vehicle for inspection.
That's the key. Many people don't bring their cars to a garage for inspection. Especially if they don't have annual maintenance intervals which typically end on the same month as the HU intervals.
> The price for the check is fixed. You only fail the check, if there are crucial safety issues or oil leaks
I don't doubt that. The question is whether the dealership will inspect your car before your official inspection or not.
> You do also insult any inspector (DEKRA, GTU or TÜV) by promoting such implications.
???
I am only saying that dealerships are inspecting cars before official inspector sees them, and the rate of pre-inspected cars differs from brand to brand. I don't blame DEKRA, GTU or TÜV for faulty inspections. I blame them for not disclosing the bias in their statistics.
> > if a garage presents your vehicle for inspection.
> That's the key. Many people don't bring their cars to a garage for inspection. Especially if they don't have annual maintenance intervals which typically end on the same month as the HU intervals.
Annual intervals ensure an easy TÜV inspection, but it is differs entirely from the raised point. You can hire a garage to present your car - no need for an annual maintenance contract. No need for intervention by the car manufacture. And you shortend the quotation: Why are you explicitly calling german brands out for: "the average german branded car owner who signed an annual maintenance contract" and why are you omitting my point, that this can be done with any brand and any age of vehicle?
I would claim that the luxury brands have _less_ annual maintenance contracts by private households.
You need to provide sources for your claims - I just pointed out, that there is no correlation with your claim and it is a biased assumption.
> > The price for the check is fixed. You only fail the check, if there are crucial safety issues or oil leaks
> I don't doubt that. The question is whether the dealership will inspect your car before your official inspection or not.
Any garage can inspect your car - regardless of age. Your opinion is only proven if tesla owners hire less garages then any other brand. And then the age of the car is still neglected.
> > You do also insult any inspector (DEKRA, GTU or TÜV) by promoting such implications.
> ??? I am only saying that dealerships are inspecting cars before official inspector sees them, and the rate of pre-inspected cars differs from brand to brand. I don't blame DEKRA, GTU or TÜV for faulty inspections. I blame them for not disclosing the bias in their statistics.
Inspectors treat any vehicle the same. That means that any garage is able to ensure a successful inspection. There is no dependency on the dealership.
Additionally, the owner is responsible for preparing the car.
Since we are referring to fairly new cars: Depending on the kind of purchase the owner _is required_ to present his car at a garage in an interval. Otherwise he will loose his warranty or additional insurances.
And my personal opinion: Anybody who repaired any car on its own will agree: teslas quality is ridicolous cheap.
It's funny that every European Tesla owner I know are happy with their car but American media, twitter, and reddit users are busy telling us we are wrong.
Given the weather conditions in Germany, without having any statistics at hand, I still would expect most people to switch tires twice a year for summer/winter seasons... ...especially since if you are on "summer" tires in the winter, insurance won't pay (simplified).
Article fails to mention how many of these defects are due to low beam alignment issues, which is normally a quick adjustment done by dealers before the inspection. Article writer likely knows what they are doing and disguises the numbers.
Maybe Teslas aren’t as reliable - I don’t have any evidence to say they are. I do know that unlike most other cars Tesla don’t have a mandatory service schedule to maintain warranty which might be one explanation for higher-than-average statutory failure rates.
Tesla, the stock, is currently priced as if it will never face competition. Even with the big correction of recent weeks, it is still priced at more than several of its competitors combined. This is not a rational price. The fact is that the market will soon be flooded with excellent electric cars from Toyota, Mercedes, BMW and more. This article certainly should worry anyone holding Tesla stock: less than 4% of the BMW Smart Fortwo Electric Drive showed defects, compared to 10% of the Teslas. And this is in the year 2022. It's only going to get worse and worse from here on out, as the big companies bring their whole networks to bear. Even worse, whereas Toyota, Mercedes, and BMW have international networks of dealerships, Tesla has only a very small base of institutional support to work with. It simply isn't rational to hold Tesla stock. The preponderance of evidence favors the idea that Tesla will shrink and the other companies will grow, in the electric market.
The reason Tesla wins out here to me is the super charging network and range. I'd prefer another car company, one without Elon's erratic behavior and substandard build quality, but overall they are the best electric vehicle and will be until someone else can compete on range and charging.
Exactly this. In most of US, ex-California, the non-Tesla charging networks are about 4 years behind on install locations/quantities. Plus they have tons of software issues (tons of EV reviews with drivers unable to charge at ElectrifyAmerica, etc). Meanwhile in 3.5 years of owning a Tesla, they have been filling in every gap in my trip charging needs, and introducing redundant charging locations on my journeys.
In the NYC area, 200-300mi trips in the Tesla have evolved quickly with a BEV-
* 2018 - OK there's one route to go on this journey that has charger, I've topped us up to 90% before we go, so don't miss the turn & everyone time your bladder to this one stop
* 2019 - Alright we are at 90% and there's a couple places we can charge along the way, as long as we take routes A or B.. and the backup charger on route B might be 10mi off the highway driving through some backroads at night in rural NJ
* 2020 - Oh cool they added chargers to a couple more of those NJTP/I95 rest stops
* 2021 - OK there are chargers at basically all the NJTP/I95 rest stops I used to stop for gas
* 2022 - It's winter & the battery is above 50%, we'll pass 2 chargers on the way to/from regardless of which route we go .. so we'll charge whenever is convenient to someone needing to stop for drink or bathroom
So living in 2022 with a Tesla charging network, it's hard for me to imagine going back to my 2018 style of driving with the very attractive MachE / Polestar2 / Taycan / Ioniq 5 / etc.
So your complaint against Japanese carmakers is that they aren't trendy enough? Not nearly as bad as the rest of your examples. What about the Koreans?
Super charging is less of an issue in Europe as all charging station were made to use standardized plugs meaning there is not an as large advantage in Tesla's network.
The leaf is still a major compromise. The 149-mile range on a 2022 base model is a real issue in practice. Smaller ranges mean more charge cycles which causes faster battery degradation in a vicious cycle. Assuming you follow guidelines and don’t fully charge or discharge the battery you quickly end up with under 100 miles of useable range. It is ok for some drivers, but it’s simply not enough for most people.
The 226 mile version is significantly better, but that’s all they offer.
I had seen an hybrid Nissan turned into plastic carnage just 15 days ago. Apparently the car confused a line for blind people in the sidewalk with a continuous line and blocked the steering wheel (refusing to invade "the other lane"). The car was parked and one minute later crashed at 5Km/h against a lamppost.
I assume that Tesla is not the only maker having problems with those autopilot features.
Re: Volumes
Yeah it's really something.
The supply chain issues probably pushed the convergence out 3-5 years.
It doesn't help that most of them haven't secured a fixed battery supply the way Tesla has.
Just this year between recalls & battery delays in new product rollouts, GM shipped something like 400 (not 400K, literally 400) BEVs in Q4. Ford is targeting to ship ~300K BEVs in 2023 which is only an aspiration and would bring them to 2018-2019 Tesla volumes. With the doubling of Tesla production rates annually and new factories about to open, Tesla could be at 2M/year by 2023.
I wouldn't mind some other makers at least coming closer so I can make my 2nd vehicle a non-Tesla BEV. Tesla is fun but it's a very opinionated car (like Apple) with design choices that cannot be optioned away (yoke, falcon wing doors, gear stalk removal, touch screen UI dependence, etc).
Re: production quality
It shouldn't be a huge surprised that ~2018 era Teslas are doing poorly on inspections now. Watch Munro tear downs and the evolution of the build quality over time has gone from early 90s Hyundai to actually impressing him.
It's not as if Tesla “flooded the market” either in that period. The EV market was just niche so far, and if it's changing recently, it's benefiting historic manufacturers at least as much as Tesla.
Right now, you can find EV for every price tag and since a Tesla gets you the quality of a cheap one for the price of a high end one, its main value is as a status symbol.
> It's not as if Tesla “flooded the market” either in that period.
You don't seem to be familiar with how long it takes to ramp up production of a 10000+ component product, based on a ground up design in just about every aspect.
Tesla, founded 20 years ago, sold 1 million vehicles in 2021, that's half of what Mercedes, a century old company sold in the same period.
> its main value is as a status symbol.
Go have a free test drive in one. And then in some other "cheap ones". All I have to say.
> You don't seem to be familiar with how long it takes to ramp up production of a 10000+ component product, based on a ground up design in just about every aspect.
You've completely missed the point. For the past decade the market for EV was just not there.
Tesla accounts for less than 25% of the EV sold this year, which is a clear indication that the amount of EV sold wasn't limited by Tesla's production abilities.
> Go have a free test drive in one. And then in some other "cheap ones". All I have to say.
Have you ever driven a German car? The Tesla is a typical American car, less comfortable and less reliable than it should be for the price tag. No wonder why Germans and Japanese took over the US market for ICE cars years ago.
Tesla has the first mover advantage and the status symbol (“like Apple but for cars”).
> For the past decade the market for EV was just not there.
Then please explain to me why Tesla, during the past decade being one of the few BEV manufacturers has always been limited by production only, despite never ever advertising in its entire history?
> Tesla accounts for less than 25% of the EV sold this year, which is a clear indication that the amount of EV sold wasn't limited by Tesla's production abilities.
You're clueless. Try buying a Tesla right now, or for the past year. Go ahead. Try putting an order in and see when you it gets delivered to you and tell me if that's because they love their cars so much, they don't want to part ways with them or it's because they can't keep up with demand.
> Have you ever driven a German car?
I have driven more cars than I care to count. Ask me how Tesla is better than all of them in all the ways that matters.
> The Tesla is a typical American car, less comfortable and less reliable than it should be for the price tag.
And yet the demand for it so high, you have to wait a year to get one. Looks like comfort isn't the only thing that sells cars.
> No wonder why Germans and Japanese took over the US market for ICE cars years ago.
Sun never set on British empire once too. So what?
> Then please explain to me why Tesla, during the past decade being one of the few BEV manufacturers has always been limited by production only
For this part I'll just borrow a quote from you:
> You don't seem to be familiar with how long it takes to ramp up production of a 10000+ component product, based on a ground up design in just about every aspect.
Tesla has been severely limited by their ability to industrialize the way they wanted, but you're still completely off-topic: nobody has “flooded the market” with electric car in the meantime, because the market barely existed during that period. Now the market is here, and everybody benefits it (and Tesla is just taking a share of that market).
> despite never ever advertising in its entire history?
Regular advertising with TV ads and so on, right. But they have been running a multi-billion influencer marketing with Elon doing random stuff (building a tiny submarine to help children stuck in caves, pumping and dumping bitcoin, then memecoins, etc.)
How can you say they never ran adverting when we're talking about the company that sent a car TO SPACE!? Come on.
> You're clueless.[…]
No, but you should try reading what I write maybe.
> Ask me how Tesla is better than all of them in all the ways that matter
That's pretty typical of a cult. I've never had a single car that “was better than every other before in all aspects” (even when going from Volkswagen to Mercedes) just because it's not how it works.
> And yet the demand for it so high, you have to wait a year to get one. Looks like comfort isn't the only thing that sells cars.
Yes, the status symbol is a enormous part of why people buy luxury car. But keep thinking it doesn't exist and Tesla is just making the best car ever and just cry about injustice when all durability reviews complain that Tesla produces brittle cars.
It has been a long wait, but I would argue the moment is finally arriving.
Ford is leading the charge with their F150 and mustang, both highly desirable and mainstream. The mustang is on the roads now, the F150 will be in a quarter.
Kia and Hyundai are on the cusp with their common EV platform that the Ioniq 5 and EV6 are built on. The 5 is out, the 6 is out in Europe.
Volvo is also pushing in fairly strongly, both internally and with their Polestar subsidiary.
Volkswagen has the ID4 on the roads.
Long story short, I am in the market and there are a lot more options than Tesla and many are established brands with far better manufacturing than Tesla.
I assume the price is based on self driving. We can see how hard this is to achieve with companies like Tesla/Google putting huge money into this for years and we are still a way off.
Now when someone achieves real self driving its likely there will be one company a few years ahead and then a small handful. Those companies should make serious dollars as they will dominate the market. Once a car can drive itself it will take a little bit to earn trust but my guess is across the modern world no-one will be buying the manual versions for long (assuming safety record beats humans).
From this I could see a handful of companies dominate the market over a fairly short time cycle. Kinda like an OS enviroment where you have 2 or 3 players only and its near impossible for anyone else to survive or enter the market now.
I dont know if that view is correct, but if so, Tesla is probably one of the better placed car companies for that possible future outcome if you were looking to invest for the future value. That to me seems to be were a large part of the value comes from.
Tesla stock price is based on 'CEO Founder Bitcoin Hype Mania and Rockets'.
Companies with visible, bold, charismatic leaders tend to bring a disproportionate amount of attention and hype to a stock.
If that CEO can paint an 'Unlimited Future' because they are doing something new, in a big market, the stock takes on some odd characteristics.
People become 'believes' as much as investors, more so among small retail investors who can collectively drive the stock up.
Your point about 'Self Driving' is reasonable, but I don't think a 'few years advantage' is going to help the winners.
Why? Because 'Self Driving' will be phased in over decades. It's not going to 'turn on'.
There might be some shakeup, but it seems at least one German, Japanese and American auto maker will have the wherewithal to 'keep up' to norms.
Most importantly, in the long run, people are price sensitive and for cars they care about brand to the extent it's related to quality. Late stage buyers are of a different mindset than early stage aspirational Tesla owners.
As far as this 10% failure rate, it's hard to say - Tesla has good brand positioning, but a constant stream of these headlines won't bode well for them.
Outside of American, Nationalism is 'normal' but it's generally not of the flag-waiving kind, it's more basic ethnocentrism. Germans take their cars very seriously and I wonder if after a stage of Tesla fertilization, they return to their 'Superior German Technology'.
>The preponderance of evidence favors the idea that Tesla will shrink and the other companies will grow, in the electric market.
Then where the fuck are they? Because Tesla's right here. I've had two Teslas in my garage for the past five years. About once a month I take a look at the latest EVs coming out, looking for something that compares to what Tesla is offers. Fucking nothing. Slow acceleration, dated infotainment, slow charging, shitty range, ugly as fuck, or have never shipped a car at volume. Often a combination of several of these.
I'm a simple man. I want something that goes fast, charges fast, has a big battery and looks cool. Nobody has all of these except Tesla, because those other companies are run by old fucks who think pumping out the same car with marginally different styling, a computer from 2005 and the rechargeable battery from the RC car I got for Christmas in 6th grade is what people want. Or maybe that's all they can muster, I don't know, but the bottom line is that everyone else's EVs suck ass.
I'm not a Tesla cheerleader. I hope the legacy carmakers get their act together. But I'm not hopeful. I've been disappointed too many times by these bullshit "concept" cars they trot out at car shows and then implement precisely none of the things that made that concept cool.
As for the quality issues? I have two Teslas in my garage. I'm rich. When one is in the shop, I just drive the other. It's not that hard.
You demand a lot more than I do (which is basically cheap and low maintenance. I dont care about cupholders, infotainment, beauty, acceleration or even finish really). Then there are plenty of options. Around here, Tesla is not a popular option for electric, so I guess I'm not alone.
FWIW I find Tesla’s all-touch infotainment and climate control awful to use. I think there are many like me, who prefer dedicated buttons and knobs for common functions.
> Tesla, the stock, is currently priced as if it will never face competition.
That is completely false. Have you actually looked at the annalists who cover Tesla? Every single one includes a huge amount of completion coming online.
Have ever even looked at those models? Can you sight what models you are basing your 'analysis' on and can you explain what they are getting wrong.
> The fact is that the market will soon be flooded with excellent electric cars from Toyota, Mercedes, BMW and more.
'flooded' is a nice and vague and meaningless concept. We actually have a understanding of how much lithium there is and will be for the next few years. The ramp up continues to follow typical trends.
You wont magically have a 15x increase in EV sales, no matter if every OEM announces 500 new models over the next 5 years.
People predicted the same thing literally every year since 2016. I remember last year, people were all about how VW is gone leave Tesla in the dust and how VW can just spit out millions of EV. Because they know how to make cars and Tesla doesn't.
But even VW, it actually took quite a few years and huge investment are still around 450k BEV globally. Tesla added around 450k BEV this year.
All those companies you mention will fact the same issues that VW did. They want magically just 5x their BEV production in a year. Its just not in the cards (unless maybe you are starting from a tiny base of a few cars like Toyota) if you understand the battery and battery materials industry.
Your analysis also contradicts even the CEO of VW who said that catching Tesla in BEV sales by 2025 will be very difficult for them. And VW is a few years into this, Toyota has barley even started.
> And this is in the year 2022. It's only going to get worse and worse from here on out, as the big companies bring their whole networks to bear. Even
Yeah so bad for Tesla that they are gone make all the profits from car servicing and that they can gain all the profits from raising prices rather then the dealers absorbing that margin. I sure Tesla hates that.
> The preponderance of evidence favors the idea that Tesla will shrink and the other companies will grow, in the electric market.
Please show some of that evidence. Because the actual real existing evidence is that Tesla has been growing incredibly fast. Tesla own guidance, expectation by analysts and various demand estimations is that Tesla will continue to grow at similar speeds in 2022.
Tesla has 2 new huge factories coming online right now. So in your estimation despite 2 new production facilities they will sell less cars in the future? When will this happen in your opinion. Please tell me how many cars you assume they will produce in 2023 and then you can honestly go back an check if you were right.
How accurate were your predictions about Tesla over the last 5 years? Did you expect them to grow as they did? If not, have you changed any of your opinions?
HN has a huge bias against Tesla, Bitcoin, and Javascript. All 3 have become wildly popular. Whenever the HN hive mind is against something, that's a good sign it will become popular.
I mean, I can kind of understand the javascript thing as there are lots of great developers here and it can be frustrating when there are "better" languages that don't get any love.
The Elon Musk / Tesla / Bitcoin thing I don't understand. Anytime there is a link on HN about these, I know it's going to be a "See, I told you so" type of link where they try to justify their hate.
Perhaps it's because Elon Musk is the best "startup" guy and there is jealousy? I don't know. It doesn't make much sense to me.
Sure. But if one doesn’t like cults, why join a counter cult? “Tesla can do no wrong” and “Tesla is pure hype” are pretty much the same in that they are excuses for not seeing, thinking and judging.
I agree that Tesla Stock has been vastly overpriced for a long time, the markets overall are highly irrational at the moment, and Tesla/Musk are some of the biggest winners in this. The thing is, that with the stock prices being what they are, Tesla can probably outright buy a good car maker, including the factories and store networks. Given that they do still have a pretty sizeable technological lead, they should be able to become a major player in the auto industry in the coming years. I highly doubt the company will ever be worth as much as it is priced at now though.
> Tesla, the stock, is currently priced as if it will never face competition.
You're not in the know, I take it.
> The fact is that the market will soon be flooded with excellent electric cars from Toyota, Mercedes, BMW and more.
Haha - let's see:
Toyota "aims to achieve global sales of 3.5 million battery EVs per year by 2030" [1].
Mercedes plans to sell >20% battery EVs (BEVs) by 2030. That's 400K vehicles a year [2].
BMW plans to deliver ~2 million BEVs by 2025 [3].
Tesla delivered short of 1 million cars in 2021. It delivered 100% more cars compared to 2020 during a global chip shortage. It expects to, at minimum, increase production and deliveries by 50% in 2022, ONLY from existing Fremont and Giga Shanghai. It has two brand new Giga factories in Austen and Berlin that have just started production and will ramp up this year.
Even at conservative 50% year over year production increase, by 2025, Tesla will be producing equal number of BEVs to all the above manufacturers's "plans" of 2025 to 2030s combined. Yes my friend, for all practical purposes for the next decade, Tesla is not going to face competition in vehicle production, even completely ignoring Tesla's profit margins.
Wait there's more, much more:
Fast charging network: when time comes to purchase a non-Tesla EV with their poor range, you'll think twice. Not to mention that percentage of actually working non-Tesla fast charger stations is significantly lower than Tesla's.
Tesla insurance: upfront cost of the car is one among many factors why people choose one over others. When you find out you can pay peanuts for insurance by adjusting your driving habits (for the better), Teslas become much more affordable all of a sudden.
There's of course the whole autonomy thing which will further drive down the total cost of ownership by multiple factors, but I suspect you may be allergic to this topic, so Google it to find out more.
TL;DR Tesla will have serious competition soon provided you live in an alternate universe where pineapples are pink, taste like bubblegum and pigs fly to work, etc.
Ford F-150 Lightning vs Cybertruck looks like interesting competition. 200k reservations for the Ford, deliveries starting soon vs the Cybertruck in 2023 maybe.
Note that this is model S specific and a German issue. There is a very simple reason why this is happening which has to do with things that play a huge role in Germany but not anywhere else.
* unrestricted highway speeds
* a structural deficiency on the model S which causes the A-arms to break at high speeds
* no mandatory manufacturer service but mandatory car safety inspections
Without unrestricted highway speeds the a-arms are unlikely to break. With mandatory manufacturer service intervals broken A-arms would be spotted ahead of the car safety inspection (TUeV). Likely without that a-arm deficiency this wouldn't happen either. So I would not expect the model 3 to show the same statistics.
If this topic is of interest to you, google for "Model S Querlenker" on the German internet and you will find many affected folks. Yet that particular issue is not anywhere else as widespread because people just drive slower.
It is quite annoying because the defects you can have in the HU inspections in Germany are well-defined and sorted into multiple tiers:
* No defects (Ohne Mängel) → pass
* Negligible defects (Geringe Mängel) → pass, but owner is expected to fix the defects asap.
* Significant defects (Erhebliche Mängel) → no pass, with possiblity to re-check those specific defects for a smaller fee.
* Dangerous defects (Gefährliche Mängel) → no pass, car may only drive to a place where the defects are fixed.
* Not roadworthy (Verkehrsunsicher) → no pass, car may not even leave the inspection yard, license plates get invalidated, authorities are notified.
The article talks about some cars having "notable defects" and some cars having "any defects", and there is no indication whether they actually lump some of those defect tiers together there.
It is actually quite common to have some negligible defects during any inspection, which includes stuff like broken license plate lights. Also defects on wear parts like spent brake plates obviously impact road-worthiness, so if you do not maintain your new car well and drive lice a racer, you can still get one of the higher tier defects in the first inspection.
If you take your car to a shop to do the inspection, pretty much every mechanic will at least look around for the most common stuff. Even the untrustworthy shops will usually do that as they can then try to upsell you additional repairs.
Also it would be good to know if they actually found structural defects like suspension or chassis issues. Those should not happen in the first inspection at all. In fact, for cheap cars defects like these are usually the death sentence. Older beater cars usually pretty much double their sell price by just having passed the HU for another 2 years.
If it wasn’t already abundantly clear, T takes a silicon valley approach to cars. Ship the MVP and fix bugs later.
Owners are effectively beta testing these cars, and participating in a 3-5 year upgrade cycle (just like a smartphone)
I’ll stick with legacy Japanese auto manufacturers myself, but I don't think many T owners are surprised by reliability issues or expecting much more than a flashy toy out of their vehicle.
Are Model 3s not common in Germany? If not, then why they not mention Model 3 performance on TUV inspections as well? Is it just that they haven’t been around for 3 years yet?
When I get an EV it has a lot fewer moving parts than my current car so I’ll expect both better reliability and lower maintenance costs. It’s certainly worth looking out for these stats from countries that have rigorous inspections. It would also be worth seeing the average repair and service costs once it’s out of warranty.
Things like this don’t matter. Tesla buyers will continue to buy them because other cars simply do not compare.
People have been talking this up for the better part of a decade. “No automotive grade screen” and stuff like that. But if you are in the market for a Tesla, the substitutes are all not good enough yet.
Bugs, issues, problems are part of any new system being designed/ built. In my opinion, the bigger question is will Tesla fix these issues. They can take a headstrong view and say their product is best or they can iteratively fix the issues.
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[ 3.1 ms ] story [ 258 ms ] threadBut nobody seems to quote the TUV directly or link to the actual report
"In addition to defects in the fog light and the low beam, the Model S at the HU mainly has problems with the wishbones. " so not a lot of information in there either.
Not a riveting video per se, but somewhat on topic…
https://youtu.be/xcmf7ZqqKTE
Their costumers are literally car companies who want to know if competitors are using new technologies that they might be able to use.
If you want to see an example of what the produce, check out this report that they sold for 10$ (usually these cost many 100k$). This is a 23,793 pages report on every details and new technology in the i3.
https://munrolive.com/support-%2F-store/ols/products/bmw-i3-...
Either way I think the point stands that Munro's analysis didn't catch this possible failure mode.
Are you aware of how often other cars of any brand/class are recalled for issues that Tesla simply pushes OTA to fix? Issues that never makes the news (dozens per week of them) while the OTA does? If you don't know, I suggest you look into it.
The Smart Fortwo Electric Drive performed best of all, with only 3.5% showing any defects.
BMW's i3 was not far behind, clocking in with 4.7 percent.
5.7% of Renault Zoes presented with defects in a below-average result.
The Tesla Model S. 10.7 percent of the model showed up for testing with a defect of some sort.
Not only was this the worst EV in the study, the Model S placed third-to-last out of all cars.
When you own something like a BMW, you typically don't drive the car to the inspection yourself. Especially not if it's a leased or company car. Instead, you bring your car to the dealership (or they will pick it up), they inspect the car, fix any issues they encounter and only then bring in an official inspector for the actual inspection. This way, the inspector will hardly find any issues. Also, dealerships typically don't chose TÜV, but one of their competitors that do the inspection at the dealership.
TÜV is where people go who want to save money by skipping the dealership. Most people who do this drive cheaper cars. That's why cheap cars are always having much worse numbers in these statistics. They are alternative statistics, like ADAC's (Germany's equivalent to AAA), but they all have the same problem. There are no good statistics for German cars. They all favour expensive German brands because those who the statistics will never see a broken car. The dealerships will always take care of that. I'd rather trust US-based Consumer Reports than TÜV or ADAC statistics.
3 years is quite short, but being a "solved problem" does not mean that no service is required. Nothing is permanent.
The Ford mustang and Cadillac escalade have adopted rear independent suspension for the first time in the last 5 years.
Coaches and cars until the 80s mostly used leaf springs. Solid rear differentials and leaf springs are still common in trucks.
Tesla's have adjustable height, adjustable response, and 4 wheel independent suspension.
Other innovations in the last 50 years include aluminium, passive rear stearing, disc brakes, all wheel coilovers.
However, the Escalade should probably still have leaf suspensions. Its a bloody truck!
None of which are new to production cars. Off the top of my head, Lincoln and Mercedes are two brands that had such features when I worked on them…back in the 80s (though forward-looking adjustment might be more recent, I seem to recall Lincoln had a system that would adjust the rear on-the-fly based on what the front suspension was doing).
So if the implication is Tesla’s on the cutting edge or something, I would bet Tesla could have purchased off-the-shelf parts, and had a choice in vendors, to build their suspension.
Those are rare outside of the USA for a reason.
> Tesla's have adjustable height, adjustable response, and 4 wheel independent suspension.
Which were pioneered by Citroen. Who ironically arn't know for reliability, but we can surmise from this report that even Citroen are more reliable than a tesla.
In that regard I'd expect suspension issues to dominate in the category.
That's a bit of a exaggeration, plenty can go wrong with LED headlights.
A single bad solder might knock out a bank of LEDs. Bad weather stripping can let water in and short something out. You can hit a bump and knock a connection loose.
That would be quite hilarious, of course if it was not dangerous. It's hard to imagine how they would not switch off the "high beams", if it was lit enough.
The idea that luxury brands do not have problems is not something I have ever seen evidenced by owners. Some luxury brands are know for needing continual repairs.
> The worst by far, however, was the Tesla Model S. 10.7 percent of the model showed up for testing with a defect of some sort. Not only was this the worst EV in the study, the Model S placed third-to-last out of all cars, including ICE vehicles, only besting the Dacia Logan and Dacia Duster.
But even so, another huge factor is how expensive it is to fix the typical errors. Is it $5 in parts and 2 minutes you can do yourself or $1000 and two days at a shop?
Even when you buy a brand new cheap car, like a Dacia, you typically go to your dealership for inspections in the first couple of years. The percentage of owners who do this is certainly lower than for the premium brands, but still much higher than for Tesla if Tesla doesn't have any dealerships that offer the HU+AU inspections (that's what they are called).
(In the year 2035, most other nations are similar since social creditworthiness is part of car inspection.)
It could be that their first aid kit is out of compliance, those tests are really strict about things like that.
I'm Romanian and I was very surprised seeing this chart because, yes, relatively speaking they are pretty reliable. I think this part of OP's comment explains it best why that happened:
> TÜV is where people go who want to save money by skipping the dealership. Most people who do this drive cheaper cars. That's why cheap cars are always having much worse numbers in these statistics.
As Dacia are some of the cheapest models on the market that would explain this chart.
A primary point of complaint in the report are the breaks. In an electrical vehicle most of the time you break by using the engine as generator instead of using the breaking pads. Since they aren't used they corrode. In a cheap Dacia you don't have that luxury.
I would just add, that most normal car repair stations offer that service, too. Meaning your repair guy takes your car in, checks and fixes everything - and takes it to the TÜV.
(and often they know the TÜV guy quite well, so also in germany there quite some cars with substandard safety)
That's why the numbers are not really comparable.
What sucked 10years ago doesn't become better over time.
I do something similar in Belgium. But most people don't, definitely not for new cars.
And since that is the fundamental thing in your claim, i hope you have more data to be sure than a gut feeling.
People do often bring new cars to a dealership for regular inspections, similar to many other countries, where these kinds of problems would be caught. Still, I wouldn't expect these basic problems to show up in a pretty much brand new car but I'm no expert so who knows if that's reasonable.
"Tesla ranks almost dead-last on Consumer Reports reliability list" - Nov 2021
https://www.sfgate.com/tech/article/Tesla-ranks-almost-dead-...
HN discussion:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29273140
Another test from Belgium from a few weeks ago where Tesla came last:
https://www.test-aankoop.be/mobiliteit/auto-s/nieuws/enquete...
Translation of title and adjacent:
"Tesla is the least reliable car brand. Owners of a Tesla report problems with their car more often than drivers of other brands. Those looking to take advantage of salon conditions in the coming weeks had better grab our ranking of most reliable car brands."
So it's TÜV, Consumer Reports and Test Aankoop where Tesla scores poorly, and they are all very recent.
Edit: "Test Aankoop is an association that informs, defends and represents consumers in Belgium. We work in complete independence, financially, politically and ideologically." - translated
To me that suggests Tesla makes a cars for people who don't need a car, just want one.
Both of those things are pretty fixable after purchase and are (generally speaking) one and done problems.
Yes, not everything fits right in my 2018 Model 3. The right headlight is not flush with the hood. You can hear that the windows aren't secured when rolled down and you close the door.
Everything else is brilliant. 95k miles in, I've had zero drive train or mechanical issues. Three sets of tires and an underbody shield that tore when I hit 6" of standing water at 70mph. Conversely, the punch when you hit the accelerator is exhilarating, takes curves flat and fast, the sound system is excellent, it's so quiet, I can drive for hours without physical discomfort, the seat material is durable and doesn't scuff or fade.
I drove a 328i for 20 years that I loved dearly. I haven't given it a 2nd thought since buying the Tesla.
If you look at the reasons CR gave them a low score, it's fit and finish + the HVAC system (which have seen some pretty drastic changes since our vehicles in 2018).
My experience, brand new the condenser pump was too close to the frame (causing a knocking sound). A mobile tech came out, added a rubber pad, and it's been perfect ever since.
When I read the consumer report article listing panel alignment as a reliability issue, I'm suspect. I'm not trying to ignore the fact that it's pretty terrible for tesla to pay so little attention to these things, especially at the price, at at the same time the issues these cars have are generally both cheap/free to repair (especially since they are often caught at the point of sale) and then done for the life of the car.
Side note: My prior car, a ford edge, was WAY worse in reliability towards it's EOL (130k). By the time it got there, the fan belt had cut through the brake line (Um, wtf?), the brake master cylinder had sprung a leak, the alternator went out, the battery died, and the transmission was on it's way out, the HVAC failed and the compressor needed to be replaced. All fairly spendy repairs from regular operations. That's not to mention the regular oil/fluid changes, brake changes, and new tires.
Volkswagen ID.3 and ID.4
Ford Mustang Mach-E
Not really. Could be the case that if you're in the 90ish percent that has no problems, you love your car, but if you're in the 10% bucket you're screwed.
Similar analogy: I love JetBlue, when there aren't any problems. Wider seat pitch, better entertainment system, good value. When there are problems though, it's a nightmare. Once my flight was cancelled due to "weather" (mind you it was a beautiful sunny day, and I counted one other cancelled flight on the entire airport departure board). JetBlue said they could get me on a flight 3 days later, and gave 0 assistance getting on another airline because they don't have any of the "peering" relationships other airlines have. All they did was refund my money the day of, and no compensation because it was for "weather".
This jives generally with what I've heard about Teslas: people fanatically love the cars, except when autopilot steers you into a truck or a concrete divider.
Now that's what I call "survivor bias."
It's not about the "smug" or "halo" factor. If it were, why would so many people be lining up to buy the electric F-150?
150,000 production target electric ~750,000 sales F-series 2021
You are literally the “smug” you are protesting. And I say all these things as a guy that wants all cars to become BEV as soon as possible (well, I’d rather have public transit be prioritized, but people are egotistical and shitty).
Apologies if I came off as smug!
FWIW, I did a quick calculation and satisfaction and reliability aren't really correlated (coefficient of 0.17). Fiddling with a few other models didn't find much more of a connection.
https://www.consumerreports.org/car-reliability-owner-satisf...
I find this laughable. We're on our 3rd Tesla and we've never had anything even hinting of a reliability issue/getting stranded. There is absolutely no maintenance outside of consumables, which is really just tires, as the brake pads last the life of the car if you drive it as it's meant to be driven (regen); maybe windshield washer fluid? There've been a small number of minor things, like a seat belt tensioner on one of the three started rattling. They came and fixed it in my garage. 12V battery was on its way out on our oldest Tesla, car gave a message ahead of it dying (so, proactively avoided leaving us stranded by using software to interpret collected measurements), Tesla came and replaced it in my garage in 10 min for free. New cars are supposed to get Li-Ion 12V batteries soon standard, so the company is purposefully improving reliability. (Note: yes, Teslas have a 12V battery for auxiliary/emergency power, i.e. in case you run the EV battery all the way down you can still operate door locks etc).
Just doesn't add up calling cars that are known to intrinsically be super low maintenance and have much lower part count/complexity unreliable. Everyone I know who drives a Tesla has the same experience: zero maintenance, replace tires every 30-40k miles or when you get a flat and that's pretty much it. One of the main reasons I highly prefer EVs is because of reliability and lack of maintenance. Something seems fishy here.
My other colleague’s Tesla had multiple major issues, including one that requires an engine to be replaced.
They both still bought a new Tesla after that, and so did I, because they’re just so fun to drive, but your anecdotal evidence doesn’t disprove a fact about a 10% failure rate.
Also, when something breaks, you have to put up with Tesla’s abysmal service and the black hole that is their customer support.
Besides that, it's still anecdotal. There's a whole array of issues with Tesla's Quality.
Now that they got some competition in the top segment they dropped to only 25,000 Tesla S/Y delivered last year. They need to seriously improve their quality control if they don't want to be wiped out in the mid segment too.
The internet is to create a robust market for electric cars. The complaint is that it favors rich consumers.
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a38453459/tesla-model-s-pl...
Maybe if you didn't treat your vehicles as disposables you'd experience more of the wear and reliability problems?
3rd Tesla in what, 10 years? is nothing to brag about...actually - to use your words, I find this laughable that somehow you think you've pushed your Teslas enough to see any hint of reliability issues.
And a Lithium 12V battery is not more reliable than a regular acid-lead. You can get an aftermarket one for any ICE car and some come with it as standard. It's only good in a warm climate though because in cold weather it will lose charge quickly unlike an acid-lead.
https://www.consumentenbond.nl/test/auto-fiets-reizen/automa...
They seem to have a store and service center in pretty much every major German city, around twenty overall.
https://www.tesla.com/de_de/findus?v=2&bounds=56.42705343328...
You go to TÜV directly when you know/think that your car won´t fail the inspection. Otherwise you bring it to the dealership or an independent garage beforehand (in case of the Tesla or if you want so save money). They will fix the stuff for you and then introduce it to inspection. No matter if you drive a BMW, Dacia or Tesla. And TÜV is not cheaper, they want more or less all the same amount of money.
These statistics of TÜV are not about broken cars, it's about road safety. Broken head lamps, failing breaks, rubbers at suspension is brittle, .... These kind of things. And yes, most(not all) German cars won't fail at these things in the first five or so years. And yes, there were cars with bad transmission (DSG), failing engines and so on, but these problems are not counted in the TÜV statistics.
Tesla has dealerships, but this is irrelevant. You are referring to garages, which can be included within a dealership. If you bought a car, you can opt into these contracts. Otherwise you can become a customer of any garage. All cars were compared. There are still 10% of teslas, who can not successfuly survive the initial inspection without additional maintenance.
> When you own something like a BMW, you typically don't drive the car to the inspection yourself. Especially not if it's a leased or company car. Instead, you bring your car to the dealership (or they will pick it up), they inspect the car, fix any issues they encounter and only then bring in an official inspector for the actual inspection. This way, the inspector will hardly find any issues. Also, dealerships typically don't chose TÜV, but one of their competitors that do the inspection at the dealership.
This is valid for any car, regardless of its age or brand, if a garage presents your vehicle for inspection. No need to refer to "german car brands". Also competitors need to respect the same criterias.
> TÜV is where people go who want to save money by skipping the dealership.
The price for the check is fixed. You only fail the check, if there are crucial safety issues or oil leaks. The majority of car owners is thankful for a safety hint from the inspector.
> Most people who do this drive cheaper cars. That's why cheap cars are always having much worse numbers in these statistics.
That is an assumption.
> They are alternative statistics, like ADAC's (Germany's equivalent to AAA), but they all have the same problem. There are no good statistics for German cars. They all favour expensive German brands because those who the statistics will never see a broken car.
This is a biased assumption.
> The dealerships will always take care of that. I'd rather trust US-based Consumer Reports than TÜV or ADAC statistics.
The dealership only takes care of problems iff you either signed an maintenance contract and additional insurance, the issue needs to be solved due to warranty or you accept the charges neccessary to fix the problems.
It simply _is_ the case that tesla has a lower quality then any other europe car brand. Dacia is on the same level as tesla in terms of haptics - but their internas (chassis, engine, bearings..., etc.) are siblings of mature brands.
The TÜV is responsible for checking for safety - Inspectors will get their license permanently revoked if they did not spot an serious issue. I would trust TÜV over any american report.
When an accident happens and a certain money cap is reached, insurances will investigate and escalate to anybody. The TÜV will not prefer any car brand and take these risks.
You do also insult any inspector (DEKRA, GTU or TÜV) by promoting such implications.
That's the key. Many people don't bring their cars to a garage for inspection. Especially if they don't have annual maintenance intervals which typically end on the same month as the HU intervals.
> The price for the check is fixed. You only fail the check, if there are crucial safety issues or oil leaks
I don't doubt that. The question is whether the dealership will inspect your car before your official inspection or not.
> You do also insult any inspector (DEKRA, GTU or TÜV) by promoting such implications.
??? I am only saying that dealerships are inspecting cars before official inspector sees them, and the rate of pre-inspected cars differs from brand to brand. I don't blame DEKRA, GTU or TÜV for faulty inspections. I blame them for not disclosing the bias in their statistics.
> That's the key. Many people don't bring their cars to a garage for inspection. Especially if they don't have annual maintenance intervals which typically end on the same month as the HU intervals.
Annual intervals ensure an easy TÜV inspection, but it is differs entirely from the raised point. You can hire a garage to present your car - no need for an annual maintenance contract. No need for intervention by the car manufacture. And you shortend the quotation: Why are you explicitly calling german brands out for: "the average german branded car owner who signed an annual maintenance contract" and why are you omitting my point, that this can be done with any brand and any age of vehicle? I would claim that the luxury brands have _less_ annual maintenance contracts by private households. You need to provide sources for your claims - I just pointed out, that there is no correlation with your claim and it is a biased assumption.
> > The price for the check is fixed. You only fail the check, if there are crucial safety issues or oil leaks
> I don't doubt that. The question is whether the dealership will inspect your car before your official inspection or not.
Any garage can inspect your car - regardless of age. Your opinion is only proven if tesla owners hire less garages then any other brand. And then the age of the car is still neglected.
> > You do also insult any inspector (DEKRA, GTU or TÜV) by promoting such implications.
> ??? I am only saying that dealerships are inspecting cars before official inspector sees them, and the rate of pre-inspected cars differs from brand to brand. I don't blame DEKRA, GTU or TÜV for faulty inspections. I blame them for not disclosing the bias in their statistics.
Inspectors treat any vehicle the same. That means that any garage is able to ensure a successful inspection. There is no dependency on the dealership. Additionally, the owner is responsible for preparing the car.
Since we are referring to fairly new cars: Depending on the kind of purchase the owner _is required_ to present his car at a garage in an interval. Otherwise he will loose his warranty or additional insurances.
And my personal opinion: Anybody who repaired any car on its own will agree: teslas quality is ridicolous cheap.
That said, Musk is a fairly adept marketer - he sure as heck doesn't invent things
I suppose EVs, not going in for maintenance as frequently as ICE cars, won't get the same frequency of professionals looking at things like tyres.
Basically, I’ll believe it when you see it. Right now the BEV market is basically Tesla or sacrifices.
In the NYC area, 200-300mi trips in the Tesla have evolved quickly with a BEV-
* 2018 - OK there's one route to go on this journey that has charger, I've topped us up to 90% before we go, so don't miss the turn & everyone time your bladder to this one stop
* 2019 - Alright we are at 90% and there's a couple places we can charge along the way, as long as we take routes A or B.. and the backup charger on route B might be 10mi off the highway driving through some backroads at night in rural NJ
* 2020 - Oh cool they added chargers to a couple more of those NJTP/I95 rest stops
* 2021 - OK there are chargers at basically all the NJTP/I95 rest stops I used to stop for gas
* 2022 - It's winter & the battery is above 50%, we'll pass 2 chargers on the way to/from regardless of which route we go .. so we'll charge whenever is convenient to someone needing to stop for drink or bathroom
So living in 2022 with a Tesla charging network, it's hard for me to imagine going back to my 2018 style of driving with the very attractive MachE / Polestar2 / Taycan / Ioniq 5 / etc.
Nissan - ex-CEO is an international fugitive.
Audi - ex-CEO in jail for dieselgate.
Volkswagen - the whole dieselgate cheating scandal
Volkswagen - Diess barely escaped criminal prosecution for not disclosing diselgate early enough
Ford - a new CEO every month
All German car makers - found to fix prices and delay innovation (related to, but not the same as dieselgate)
UAW (representing car workers in US) - a giant corruption scandal, bribed by FCA and embezzling funds, 16 people in jail
Toyota and Stellantis : both CEO currently peddling lies about how transition to EVs will destroy the economy and kill electric grid
GM - Mary Bara lies, on TV, multiple times, about GM being an EV leader, despite GM delivering 26 cars in Q4
But sure, it's Elon's "erratic" behavior that is a problem.
The 226 mile version is significantly better, but that’s all they offer.
I assume that Tesla is not the only maker having problems with those autopilot features.
Just this year between recalls & battery delays in new product rollouts, GM shipped something like 400 (not 400K, literally 400) BEVs in Q4. Ford is targeting to ship ~300K BEVs in 2023 which is only an aspiration and would bring them to 2018-2019 Tesla volumes. With the doubling of Tesla production rates annually and new factories about to open, Tesla could be at 2M/year by 2023.
I wouldn't mind some other makers at least coming closer so I can make my 2nd vehicle a non-Tesla BEV. Tesla is fun but it's a very opinionated car (like Apple) with design choices that cannot be optioned away (yoke, falcon wing doors, gear stalk removal, touch screen UI dependence, etc).
Re: production quality It shouldn't be a huge surprised that ~2018 era Teslas are doing poorly on inspections now. Watch Munro tear downs and the evolution of the build quality over time has gone from early 90s Hyundai to actually impressing him.
Right now, you can find EV for every price tag and since a Tesla gets you the quality of a cheap one for the price of a high end one, its main value is as a status symbol.
You don't seem to be familiar with how long it takes to ramp up production of a 10000+ component product, based on a ground up design in just about every aspect.
Tesla, founded 20 years ago, sold 1 million vehicles in 2021, that's half of what Mercedes, a century old company sold in the same period.
> its main value is as a status symbol.
Go have a free test drive in one. And then in some other "cheap ones". All I have to say.
You've completely missed the point. For the past decade the market for EV was just not there.
Tesla accounts for less than 25% of the EV sold this year, which is a clear indication that the amount of EV sold wasn't limited by Tesla's production abilities.
> Go have a free test drive in one. And then in some other "cheap ones". All I have to say.
Have you ever driven a German car? The Tesla is a typical American car, less comfortable and less reliable than it should be for the price tag. No wonder why Germans and Japanese took over the US market for ICE cars years ago.
Tesla has the first mover advantage and the status symbol (“like Apple but for cars”).
Then please explain to me why Tesla, during the past decade being one of the few BEV manufacturers has always been limited by production only, despite never ever advertising in its entire history?
> Tesla accounts for less than 25% of the EV sold this year, which is a clear indication that the amount of EV sold wasn't limited by Tesla's production abilities.
You're clueless. Try buying a Tesla right now, or for the past year. Go ahead. Try putting an order in and see when you it gets delivered to you and tell me if that's because they love their cars so much, they don't want to part ways with them or it's because they can't keep up with demand.
> Have you ever driven a German car?
I have driven more cars than I care to count. Ask me how Tesla is better than all of them in all the ways that matters.
> The Tesla is a typical American car, less comfortable and less reliable than it should be for the price tag.
And yet the demand for it so high, you have to wait a year to get one. Looks like comfort isn't the only thing that sells cars.
> No wonder why Germans and Japanese took over the US market for ICE cars years ago.
Sun never set on British empire once too. So what?
> Tesla has the first mover advantage.
What, like Apple did with iPhone?
> status symbol (“like Apple but for cars”).
Ye, whatever you say.
For this part I'll just borrow a quote from you:
> You don't seem to be familiar with how long it takes to ramp up production of a 10000+ component product, based on a ground up design in just about every aspect.
Tesla has been severely limited by their ability to industrialize the way they wanted, but you're still completely off-topic: nobody has “flooded the market” with electric car in the meantime, because the market barely existed during that period. Now the market is here, and everybody benefits it (and Tesla is just taking a share of that market).
> despite never ever advertising in its entire history?
Regular advertising with TV ads and so on, right. But they have been running a multi-billion influencer marketing with Elon doing random stuff (building a tiny submarine to help children stuck in caves, pumping and dumping bitcoin, then memecoins, etc.)
How can you say they never ran adverting when we're talking about the company that sent a car TO SPACE!? Come on.
> You're clueless.[…]
No, but you should try reading what I write maybe.
> Ask me how Tesla is better than all of them in all the ways that matter
That's pretty typical of a cult. I've never had a single car that “was better than every other before in all aspects” (even when going from Volkswagen to Mercedes) just because it's not how it works.
> And yet the demand for it so high, you have to wait a year to get one. Looks like comfort isn't the only thing that sells cars.
Yes, the status symbol is a enormous part of why people buy luxury car. But keep thinking it doesn't exist and Tesla is just making the best car ever and just cry about injustice when all durability reviews complain that Tesla produces brittle cars.
> What, like Apple did with iPhone?
Yes, also like BlackBerry and Yahoo!
Ford is leading the charge with their F150 and mustang, both highly desirable and mainstream. The mustang is on the roads now, the F150 will be in a quarter.
Kia and Hyundai are on the cusp with their common EV platform that the Ioniq 5 and EV6 are built on. The 5 is out, the 6 is out in Europe.
Volvo is also pushing in fairly strongly, both internally and with their Polestar subsidiary.
Volkswagen has the ID4 on the roads.
Long story short, I am in the market and there are a lot more options than Tesla and many are established brands with far better manufacturing than Tesla.
Toyota bZ4X / Subaru Solterra
Lexus RZ
Now when someone achieves real self driving its likely there will be one company a few years ahead and then a small handful. Those companies should make serious dollars as they will dominate the market. Once a car can drive itself it will take a little bit to earn trust but my guess is across the modern world no-one will be buying the manual versions for long (assuming safety record beats humans).
From this I could see a handful of companies dominate the market over a fairly short time cycle. Kinda like an OS enviroment where you have 2 or 3 players only and its near impossible for anyone else to survive or enter the market now.
I dont know if that view is correct, but if so, Tesla is probably one of the better placed car companies for that possible future outcome if you were looking to invest for the future value. That to me seems to be were a large part of the value comes from.
Companies with visible, bold, charismatic leaders tend to bring a disproportionate amount of attention and hype to a stock.
If that CEO can paint an 'Unlimited Future' because they are doing something new, in a big market, the stock takes on some odd characteristics.
People become 'believes' as much as investors, more so among small retail investors who can collectively drive the stock up.
Your point about 'Self Driving' is reasonable, but I don't think a 'few years advantage' is going to help the winners.
Why? Because 'Self Driving' will be phased in over decades. It's not going to 'turn on'.
There might be some shakeup, but it seems at least one German, Japanese and American auto maker will have the wherewithal to 'keep up' to norms.
Most importantly, in the long run, people are price sensitive and for cars they care about brand to the extent it's related to quality. Late stage buyers are of a different mindset than early stage aspirational Tesla owners.
As far as this 10% failure rate, it's hard to say - Tesla has good brand positioning, but a constant stream of these headlines won't bode well for them.
Outside of American, Nationalism is 'normal' but it's generally not of the flag-waiving kind, it's more basic ethnocentrism. Germans take their cars very seriously and I wonder if after a stage of Tesla fertilization, they return to their 'Superior German Technology'.
Then where the fuck are they? Because Tesla's right here. I've had two Teslas in my garage for the past five years. About once a month I take a look at the latest EVs coming out, looking for something that compares to what Tesla is offers. Fucking nothing. Slow acceleration, dated infotainment, slow charging, shitty range, ugly as fuck, or have never shipped a car at volume. Often a combination of several of these.
I'm a simple man. I want something that goes fast, charges fast, has a big battery and looks cool. Nobody has all of these except Tesla, because those other companies are run by old fucks who think pumping out the same car with marginally different styling, a computer from 2005 and the rechargeable battery from the RC car I got for Christmas in 6th grade is what people want. Or maybe that's all they can muster, I don't know, but the bottom line is that everyone else's EVs suck ass.
I'm not a Tesla cheerleader. I hope the legacy carmakers get their act together. But I'm not hopeful. I've been disappointed too many times by these bullshit "concept" cars they trot out at car shows and then implement precisely none of the things that made that concept cool.
As for the quality issues? I have two Teslas in my garage. I'm rich. When one is in the shop, I just drive the other. It's not that hard.
You demand a lot more than I do (which is basically cheap and low maintenance. I dont care about cupholders, infotainment, beauty, acceleration or even finish really). Then there are plenty of options. Around here, Tesla is not a popular option for electric, so I guess I'm not alone.
FWIW I find Tesla’s all-touch infotainment and climate control awful to use. I think there are many like me, who prefer dedicated buttons and knobs for common functions.
That is completely false. Have you actually looked at the annalists who cover Tesla? Every single one includes a huge amount of completion coming online.
Have ever even looked at those models? Can you sight what models you are basing your 'analysis' on and can you explain what they are getting wrong.
> The fact is that the market will soon be flooded with excellent electric cars from Toyota, Mercedes, BMW and more.
'flooded' is a nice and vague and meaningless concept. We actually have a understanding of how much lithium there is and will be for the next few years. The ramp up continues to follow typical trends.
You wont magically have a 15x increase in EV sales, no matter if every OEM announces 500 new models over the next 5 years.
People predicted the same thing literally every year since 2016. I remember last year, people were all about how VW is gone leave Tesla in the dust and how VW can just spit out millions of EV. Because they know how to make cars and Tesla doesn't.
But even VW, it actually took quite a few years and huge investment are still around 450k BEV globally. Tesla added around 450k BEV this year.
All those companies you mention will fact the same issues that VW did. They want magically just 5x their BEV production in a year. Its just not in the cards (unless maybe you are starting from a tiny base of a few cars like Toyota) if you understand the battery and battery materials industry.
Your analysis also contradicts even the CEO of VW who said that catching Tesla in BEV sales by 2025 will be very difficult for them. And VW is a few years into this, Toyota has barley even started.
> And this is in the year 2022. It's only going to get worse and worse from here on out, as the big companies bring their whole networks to bear. Even
Yeah so bad for Tesla that they are gone make all the profits from car servicing and that they can gain all the profits from raising prices rather then the dealers absorbing that margin. I sure Tesla hates that.
> The preponderance of evidence favors the idea that Tesla will shrink and the other companies will grow, in the electric market.
Please show some of that evidence. Because the actual real existing evidence is that Tesla has been growing incredibly fast. Tesla own guidance, expectation by analysts and various demand estimations is that Tesla will continue to grow at similar speeds in 2022.
Tesla has 2 new huge factories coming online right now. So in your estimation despite 2 new production facilities they will sell less cars in the future? When will this happen in your opinion. Please tell me how many cars you assume they will produce in 2023 and then you can honestly go back an check if you were right.
How accurate were your predictions about Tesla over the last 5 years? Did you expect them to grow as they did? If not, have you changed any of your opinions?
The Elon Musk / Tesla / Bitcoin thing I don't understand. Anytime there is a link on HN about these, I know it's going to be a "See, I told you so" type of link where they try to justify their hate.
Perhaps it's because Elon Musk is the best "startup" guy and there is jealousy? I don't know. It doesn't make much sense to me.
I wouldn't put JS in the same category.
You're not in the know, I take it.
> The fact is that the market will soon be flooded with excellent electric cars from Toyota, Mercedes, BMW and more.
Haha - let's see:
Toyota "aims to achieve global sales of 3.5 million battery EVs per year by 2030" [1].
Mercedes plans to sell >20% battery EVs (BEVs) by 2030. That's 400K vehicles a year [2].
BMW plans to deliver ~2 million BEVs by 2025 [3].
Tesla delivered short of 1 million cars in 2021. It delivered 100% more cars compared to 2020 during a global chip shortage. It expects to, at minimum, increase production and deliveries by 50% in 2022, ONLY from existing Fremont and Giga Shanghai. It has two brand new Giga factories in Austen and Berlin that have just started production and will ramp up this year.
Even at conservative 50% year over year production increase, by 2025, Tesla will be producing equal number of BEVs to all the above manufacturers's "plans" of 2025 to 2030s combined. Yes my friend, for all practical purposes for the next decade, Tesla is not going to face competition in vehicle production, even completely ignoring Tesla's profit margins.
Wait there's more, much more:
Fast charging network: when time comes to purchase a non-Tesla EV with their poor range, you'll think twice. Not to mention that percentage of actually working non-Tesla fast charger stations is significantly lower than Tesla's.
Tesla insurance: upfront cost of the car is one among many factors why people choose one over others. When you find out you can pay peanuts for insurance by adjusting your driving habits (for the better), Teslas become much more affordable all of a sudden.
There's of course the whole autonomy thing which will further drive down the total cost of ownership by multiple factors, but I suspect you may be allergic to this topic, so Google it to find out more.
TL;DR Tesla will have serious competition soon provided you live in an alternate universe where pineapples are pink, taste like bubblegum and pigs fly to work, etc.
[1]: https://global.toyota/en/newsroom/corporate/36428993.html
[2]: https://youtu.be/FcbIm5mwpA0?t=1040
[3]: https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/global/article/detail/T036235...
* unrestricted highway speeds
* a structural deficiency on the model S which causes the A-arms to break at high speeds
* no mandatory manufacturer service but mandatory car safety inspections
Without unrestricted highway speeds the a-arms are unlikely to break. With mandatory manufacturer service intervals broken A-arms would be spotted ahead of the car safety inspection (TUeV). Likely without that a-arm deficiency this wouldn't happen either. So I would not expect the model 3 to show the same statistics.
If this topic is of interest to you, google for "Model S Querlenker" on the German internet and you will find many affected folks. Yet that particular issue is not anywhere else as widespread because people just drive slower.
https://insideevs.com/news/447593/tesla-suspension-issues-ow...
Top speed on belgian highways is 120 km/h.
The TÜV Report 2022 is available from Friday, November 12, 2021 at a price of EUR 5.40 in TÜV SÜD service centers and in retail outlets.
It can also be ordered at [2].
[1] https://www.tuvsud.com/de-de/publikationen/tuev-report
[2] https://www.tuev-media.de/tuev-report-2022
* No defects (Ohne Mängel) → pass
* Negligible defects (Geringe Mängel) → pass, but owner is expected to fix the defects asap.
* Significant defects (Erhebliche Mängel) → no pass, with possiblity to re-check those specific defects for a smaller fee.
* Dangerous defects (Gefährliche Mängel) → no pass, car may only drive to a place where the defects are fixed.
* Not roadworthy (Verkehrsunsicher) → no pass, car may not even leave the inspection yard, license plates get invalidated, authorities are notified.
The article talks about some cars having "notable defects" and some cars having "any defects", and there is no indication whether they actually lump some of those defect tiers together there.
It is actually quite common to have some negligible defects during any inspection, which includes stuff like broken license plate lights. Also defects on wear parts like spent brake plates obviously impact road-worthiness, so if you do not maintain your new car well and drive lice a racer, you can still get one of the higher tier defects in the first inspection.
If you take your car to a shop to do the inspection, pretty much every mechanic will at least look around for the most common stuff. Even the untrustworthy shops will usually do that as they can then try to upsell you additional repairs.
Also it would be good to know if they actually found structural defects like suspension or chassis issues. Those should not happen in the first inspection at all. In fact, for cheap cars defects like these are usually the death sentence. Older beater cars usually pretty much double their sell price by just having passed the HU for another 2 years.
Owners are effectively beta testing these cars, and participating in a 3-5 year upgrade cycle (just like a smartphone)
I’ll stick with legacy Japanese auto manufacturers myself, but I don't think many T owners are surprised by reliability issues or expecting much more than a flashy toy out of their vehicle.
People have been talking this up for the better part of a decade. “No automotive grade screen” and stuff like that. But if you are in the market for a Tesla, the substitutes are all not good enough yet.
The Model Y is now shipping with a new single piece rear casting, reducing 70 parts to 2 parts:
https://electrek.co/2021/01/11/tesla-starts-production-model...
We'll see if that improves things in a few years. Or if new issues arise with the high-pressure die casting process.