This very clearly demonstrates Facebook's advantage: despite recent buzz about Facebook being boring, losing its vision, etc, they have built an enormous moat through the developer platform, and the true test for the competition (Google+ or otherwise) is whether or not they can compete on that platform level.
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[ 2.5 ms ] story [ 17.6 ms ] threadhttp://www.rhsmith.umd.edu/digits/pdfs_docs/research/2011/Ap...
Not sure I buy (or fully understand) their estimates - there seem to be a lot of unstated assumptions in there.