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Ask HN: Putin could’ve built up short positions, couldn’t he?

10 points by leobg ↗ HN
Is there any reason to believe that Putin and his cronies did not build up massive short positions before Russia made its move?

If you can tank world wide stock markets at will, why not use that power to your advantage? Multiply the fortunes of yourself and of those you need to stay in power.

Might well offset the effects of any sanctions the outside world could possibly impose on you. The whole affair would be a can’t-lose scenario for you, and you’d be winning even if you failed to reach any of your other goals.

Could he have done it? Any indications that he did or didn’t? Is there a limit to the possible payoff for such a scheme?

16 comments

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easytiger
Well Nancy Pelosi & Husband use her political insider position to make money. So why not
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syki
The question is about Putin and his cronies using their power as dictator and oligarchs doing a specific type of stock trade. Nancy Pelosi is neither a dictator or an oligarch and as far as I know has not shorted the market since she’s planning to start a war. Why bring her up?
easytiger
She uses non public information from her position to make investment choices.

That's the subject the poster is pondering

gaws
So do many Republicans in the House and Senate. It cuts both ways.
jstx1
He's one of the richest people in the world already and he has the economy of a large country to steal from. It's not impossible for him to have done this, it just seems like a very inefficient strategy to get more money.
leobg
Sure. It's not gonna move the needle in terms of what kind of boat he can afford personally. As a person, he already can have anything he wants, so I, too, doubt that there would be any motivation in that regard.

My question is rather: Could such a strategy be used at a scale large enough to matter on a geopolitical scale. Could such schemes become, in other words, a "second income stream" for dictators that they can use to keep themselves in power, or to strenghten their countries' economical situation?

obayesshelton
Not totally true. The wealth of Putin is unknown.
qnsi
I doubt there is any market maker allowing that big of short positions, that it would be profitable for them. Finance world would notice. They lost billions waging this war, but its not about money
leobg
It cuts both ways. They could go short before the action and go long just before the markets recover. If that worked, they'd get their war for free. And achieving any actual military or geostrategic success would be just the icing on the cake.

The West would be imposing sanctions, but at the same time, the West would be the one financing the thing.

tanseydavid
>> If that worked, they'd get their war for free.

If that worked, we would see a new war every month.

leobg
Not exactly. The trigger would get less effective with over-use. But yes, if it did work, other dictators might copy that strategy. That's why I'm asking.
kbelder
Yep. I am absolutely sure that 'world leader massively shorting stocks' would be instantly noticed and plastered all over the news. That's not a great thing to do right before an invasion; kind of tipping your hand.
starwind
Yes he could have. This would be a bad strategy. Not only would he have to worry about his other investments getting hurt, there are a lot more stockholders in Russia today than there were a decade ago, and Putin ultimately relies on a reasonably happy population to keep running Russia.