What are the chances that a similar situation could develop in Moldova? thinking mostly about Transnistria that would give Russians justification for invasion if your leaders would made Putin sufficiently angry
At this rate, they'd be lucky if they can hold on to DNR/LNR, if not Crimea tbh. Russian ground forces are getting fucked. They could start indiscriminately bombing cities, but that would look really bad for the Russian government and be cause for actual foreign intervention.
They will not use nukes. There are plenty of people in between them and Putin who understand they're only a last resort for defense.
And inb4 "they're just testing waters with conscripts". Nobody does that. Russian vehicles rolled in on Ukrainian roads without a single roadblock. Now they're starting to put up hedgehogs and are generally better aware, and also getting more western weapons. A second wave would meet the same, or worse, fate.
The Russian army is severely underequipped and underfunded. All they have is nukes. And tbh, I'm not even sure half of those work, which might explain their fear of NATO at the border.
With any luck, this will spark a reunification effort between Moldova and Romania and have Russia so humiliated they won't try it again for decades.
Transnistria, btw, is already de facto Russian. They won't go any further with it, because that would be a waste of money. They could try to take Moldova if their Ukraine invasion fails, but I think the chances are pretty low after such a massive failure.
Not to mention that sadly, all it would take to turn the next election pro-Russian is a few good donations and/or threats. 80% of Moldova's energy supply comes from one Transnistrian power plant, and people (30% Russian plus the pro-Russian Gagauz) are pissed about the energy price increases, blaming the government, and brainwashed by whatever Russian media they're consuming.
I would not be so sure. At the least Putin will resume the underground nuclear tests, if things don't go so well for him. If people don't take the hint, he'll do some above ground tests. Then, he'll make use of the novel Russian doctrine "escalate to de-escalate" [1], which means he'll drop some tactical nukes in the theater of operations.
If anything, he will start by actually cutting off natural resource supplies to Europe. Which would be no joke, as the continent severely depends on them.
Of course, it would hurt Russia too, but we already see that they don't care. Best case scenario imo, Putin "suddenly gets ill and dies" and they get a more level headed leader who will revert things to the status quo.
It is more likely that the Russian military is just that bad. And the best stuff is kept for home defense at all times.
There is more equipment en route... It's not better, but it's way more of it. A classic tactic from a country and people who haven't waged a massive war in decades.
The thing is, Ukraine is not standing still, they're getting better every day, too.
Just read in a non-English newspaper about someone crossing into Moldova and being very thankful about the people waiting in their cars for someone to pick up.
Just wanted to let you know that there are mentions of Moldova.
In Romania this started with a few people at the border offering free food and a a transport company that shuttled refugees from the border to nearby cities/airport.
A few Facebook groups popped up and people from across the entire country (even very far away from the border) started offering their help and their homes.
Within a day NGOs, local businesses (restaurants, hotels), Churches and big businesses (telecom companies offering free sim cards) got involved and sent people at the border to offer aid.
The groups also serve as a place where Ukrainians ask about waiting times at different border crossings, crossing without a Passport, crossing with pets, etc.
If you know people fleeing Ukraine towards Romania or Moldova send them to these groups:
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[ 2.8 ms ] story [ 46.1 ms ] threadAlso, the President's Twitter account https://twitter.com/sandumaiamd
Poland, Romania and Moldova's response has been immediate.
They will not use nukes. There are plenty of people in between them and Putin who understand they're only a last resort for defense.
And inb4 "they're just testing waters with conscripts". Nobody does that. Russian vehicles rolled in on Ukrainian roads without a single roadblock. Now they're starting to put up hedgehogs and are generally better aware, and also getting more western weapons. A second wave would meet the same, or worse, fate.
The Russian army is severely underequipped and underfunded. All they have is nukes. And tbh, I'm not even sure half of those work, which might explain their fear of NATO at the border.
With any luck, this will spark a reunification effort between Moldova and Romania and have Russia so humiliated they won't try it again for decades.
Transnistria, btw, is already de facto Russian. They won't go any further with it, because that would be a waste of money. They could try to take Moldova if their Ukraine invasion fails, but I think the chances are pretty low after such a massive failure.
Not to mention that sadly, all it would take to turn the next election pro-Russian is a few good donations and/or threats. 80% of Moldova's energy supply comes from one Transnistrian power plant, and people (30% Russian plus the pro-Russian Gagauz) are pissed about the energy price increases, blaming the government, and brainwashed by whatever Russian media they're consuming.
We'll see how this comment ages.
I would not be so sure. At the least Putin will resume the underground nuclear tests, if things don't go so well for him. If people don't take the hint, he'll do some above ground tests. Then, he'll make use of the novel Russian doctrine "escalate to de-escalate" [1], which means he'll drop some tactical nukes in the theater of operations.
[1] https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russia%E2%80%99s-craz...
Of course, it would hurt Russia too, but we already see that they don't care. Best case scenario imo, Putin "suddenly gets ill and dies" and they get a more level headed leader who will revert things to the status quo.
Definitely not an expert on war, but this can be true for the following reasons:
- there’s a video of some broken machinery that looks so janky and old on the inside. So they might have sent old equipment first.
- there’s a video of much newer and larger equipment already en route.
- Chechen soldiers who might be more experienced in urban war (because of Chechnya war) being sent over.
- videos of many captured soldiers show very young and scared boys. Definitely didn’t ooze “professional army” attitude
There is more equipment en route... It's not better, but it's way more of it. A classic tactic from a country and people who haven't waged a massive war in decades.
The thing is, Ukraine is not standing still, they're getting better every day, too.
Just wanted to let you know that there are mentions of Moldova.
A few Facebook groups popped up and people from across the entire country (even very far away from the border) started offering their help and their homes.
Within a day NGOs, local businesses (restaurants, hotels), Churches and big businesses (telecom companies offering free sim cards) got involved and sent people at the border to offer aid.
The groups also serve as a place where Ukrainians ask about waiting times at different border crossings, crossing without a Passport, crossing with pets, etc.
If you know people fleeing Ukraine towards Romania or Moldova send them to these groups:
For Romania: - "UNIȚI PENTRU UCRAINA - Єдині за Україну - United for Ukraine" - https://www.facebook.com/groups/unitipentruucraina/
For Moldova: - "Ajutor ucraineni în Moldova / SOS Українці Молдовa" (Help Ukrainians in Moldova) - https://www.facebook.com/groups/347615063908402
Source: a close relative is a refugee that is going thru Romania.
Edit: I don’t really blame them. Gas costs a lot of money.