Ask HN: How do you cope with possible nuclear threat?

68 points by kcindric ↗ HN
What are some coping skills you use or can recommend to tackle or just mitigate the impending doom that's hanging over our heads? I've noticed I'm becoming more scared, demotivated and depressed as the Ukraine conflict marches on and irrational people make nuclear threats.

147 comments

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There's nothing you can do to influence events, so you might as well just keep breathing, enjoy the moment and treasure your interactions with other entities.
Current journalism optimises for fear (especially after how lucrative COVID-19 reporting has proven to be). The more fearful and angry people feel, the more news they'll continue to consume.

It's best to take a break from reading too much about the current Ukraine situation. This doesn't mean being completely blind to it; however, balancing between your mental health and knowledge of current affairs will help you cope with the ongoing situation more than anything.

It is not just about journalism. If you feel anxious then I would suggest to check the news just occasionally and no social media.
You're right -- I forgot to mention social media; definitely exacerbates the doom narrative.
That's absolutely true. Remember that there's a bias for the kind of headline that reaches you: They tend to be the most sensationalist ones, simply because that's how us humans are wired. Everyone wants to talk about nuclear war because it's a grabbing subject, but few are willing to reminds us of mutual assured destruction, which is something leaders everywhere are extremely aware of.
Right. There is an insidious notion that 'knowing'is 'doing'. Slacktivism, as it was once called.

Much as an idea has no value, while an implementation might, engagement does not equate with amelioration.

I was never afraid of Corona. Not when it started 2 years ago and especially not now.

But a homicidal dictator with his finger on the red button is concerning to put it mildly.

My way of approaching this is optimizing for survival. Getting a go bag, planning what to do when the sirens start going off. I understand there would be about 15 minute advance warning. I'm in central London, which if of course bad. But there is a strategy - to go to the Tube (underground trains) and then after the hit, use the tunnels to reach the outskirts of the city.

Well, considering how unstable Pakistan was at times, it seems just not thinking too much about it really helps. Or North Korea.
I was very afraid about COVID; I went on a preventive personal lockdown 2 weeks before the government one. Then in April 2020, when the data rolled in showing ridiculously low mortality I chilled and I spent 2 years waiting for idiotic governments to stop infringing on my freedom.

Russia doesn't have enough manpower to conquer Europe and nukes are highly unlikely. The narrative that Putin is mad is ridiculous, he just decided that isolation from Europe is the lesser evil compared to being surrounded by NATO countries.

Nukes are highly unlikely because retaliation would damage everyone on all sides, Putin is just using them as leverage.

Once one side has technology to somehow defend from enemy nukes, then nukes could become a viable option, albeit an incredibly risky one.

This is just bluffs and media spreading fear.

> The narrative that Putin is mad is ridiculous

It may not be so ridiculous. If you watch his earlier public appearances - he's always a stone cold sociopath in control. In his latest appearances he's increasingly erratic and struggles to keep his cool. Remember he's 70 years old now which is well into the risk zone for serious health problems. Alzheimers? Terminal cancer? What would you do in his place if you were told that? What if he wants to go out with a bang? He couldn't just straight out declare war on NATO, what if by going after Ukraine he actually hopes for escalation?

Sorry if my comment looks like I've seen too much movies, but even if Putin, as a human, have nothing to lose, everyone else in Russia have a lot to lose. I know there isn't lot of counter-powers but couldn't he be stopped by some Russia's agency where a lot of people have a lot to lose ? I know he have a great control over most state employed people including KGB, but doesn't this control starts to fail apart when everyone is afraid about the country being nuked ?

Bonus : it feels like a true opportunity for someone powerful enough to steal the power.

"The narrative that Putin is mad is ridiculous"

Dunno, people that have been watching him for a decade or more have seen a significant change for the worse as of late. He was smart, shrewd, and in control. Not so much lately.

Look, it is suicide to launch one. Even the craziest shitheads like the Taliban and North Korea won’t do it. Even though some of these people are on the darker side of human nature, the dark side still has a self preservation aspect, doubly so for those who like to keep power.

Russia killing Ukrainians to secure Ukraine is still somewhat in line with other invasions of this and last century. We are not yet in madness territory, not by any stretch.

Most likely we won’t even hit the civilian casualty numbers of the Iraq/Afghanistan war.

Putin thinking he can get away with this is already a strong signal of madness. I think he lost his touch with reality and the situation is only going downhill from now. I'd like to be wrong on this one, but for a first time in a long while, I'm not optimistic.

I'd be curious to learn a scenario that leads out of this without any more significant damage or escalation.

Ukraine just got green lights to become an EU member. Let's hope this will have the effect of deterring nature and not more fuel for madness.

He’s had several other wars. In a way it’s kind of weird how everyone lost their mind over this one but not the others. Maybe social media is the difference, maybe the fear that’s plan was for more then Ukraine. Not sure.
Those wars didn't happen with a common border with the EU. Sadly, it makes all the difference.

You are also correct about the role of the internet, social media and that now everybody has a camera in their pocket.

Biden has already given him the green light to take Ukraine. He explicitly keeps saying we won’t commit ground troops, unless he enters NATO. The message is keep your imperial ambitions to non-NATO countries.

That’s pretty much the deal at this point.

They don't send troops because Putin is threatening with a nuclear counter strike, that's not really a green light.
He could have been ambiguous about sending troops. He could have sent lots of troops to Nato nations. Announcing that we won’t do anything for a small invasion was completely absurd.
> The message is keep your imperial ambitions to non-NATO countries.

That is kind of the point, to make the cost of an attack against a NATO country very high.

> We are not yet in madness territory, not by any stretch

I disagree.

> ‘Yes, He Would’: Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-...

> Putin is increasingly operating emotionally and likely to use all the weapons at his disposal, including nuclear ones. It’s important not to have any illusions — but equally important not to lose hope.

> “Every time you think, ’No, he wouldn’t, would he?’ Well, yes, he would,” Hill said. “And he wants us to know that, of course. It’s not that we should be intimidated and scared…. We have to prepare for those contingencies and figure out what is it that we’re going to do to head them off.

It a strategy to appear unhinged, ready to push the nuclear button.
> Look, it is suicide to launch one.

What if Putin loses face, and makes this his exit plan?

I can think of a scenario where self preservation does not work: one of these sh_theads have cancer and only have X days to live.
> Even the craziest shitheads like the Taliban and North Korea won’t do it.

Never base military decisions on what the enemy would do, rather than what they could do.

Granted, your personal coping approach is not such a decision, but the maxim still stands.

Moreover, you can’t foresee what Russia’s position will be in 10 years from now. They might not use the A-bomb right now in this war, but who knows what ten years of paranoia and relentless sanctions could do to the leadership and the population.

Or one truely bad election outcome in one those countries: USA, France, Great Britain, Pakistan, Israel, India
Nuclear threat never really went away, we just don't have the emotional capacity to seriously think about it for too long. I could recommend relevant podcast episodes by Sam Harris.

Now that it's on everyone's minds, I hope it will not be quickly forgotten in the aftermath.

Edit: if you need an immediate calming down… Even a crazy dictator is unlikely to want to destroy the world, because then there would be no one to rule over. Simplistic, but slightly reassuring.

Even before the Ukraine conflict, I often thought how at any moment there are nuclear bombs pointed at me by some other country and within few clicks away from being launched. I am just hoping there is no software bug or a mistake while they are performing tests, that would launch one.

Earthquakes, floods, diseases, sun exploding - anything can happen.

I was born in the 80s in Germany, right next to, then, NSA listening post. Everyone knew it was there, so there were definitely more then one nuke pointed there at any given time. Hell, even NATO had plans to nuke any Warsaw Pact invaders in West Germany before they reached the Rhine. It was, well, just that. I realized I'm not that concerned about nuclear threat, after all it was part of my youth without anyone really thinking about it. No coping mechanism that can be copied so.
The coping skill is simple and works with everything: "just don't think about it / just think about something else".

Concerning the nuclear treat, there is one country that has used nuclear bombing, spreading nuclear bombs around the world expanding nearer of countries it is hostile to, and which has started many wars.

Citizen of this country must vote better, you are free to partake in political activism for a party which you think is more able to keep world stability.

Are you trying to say that US is to blame? :)

As a citizen of ex-USSR state that where US has „expanded“ to... We're damn happy to have US presence. Give more nukes so we can stay safe from Russia. We don't want to be it's „rightful interest territory“.

If you want to „keep world stability“ by giving up millions of people to predatory regimes... There's a Russian ship to follow.

Stoicism can help. Stoicism's main line of thinking is that we have no real control over external events, only over our minds (even that's debatable but I digress). And basically becoming more Stoic is a long journey in learning how to worry about things that are under your control and stop worrying over things that are outside your control (such as nuclear war).

I'm not saying it's easy but it's the only life philosophy I read about that makes sense to me.

I'm not sure if it is totally out of your control. E.g. you could move to a safer place, which is less likely to be targeted.
Even living 200km+ from any major city would probably improve your odds significantly.
I wonder how much land in Europe is more than 200km away from a major city. Not much, I think.
Even if it ended up as a nuclear conflict (and I think it's highly unlikely - everyone has too much to lose) between China / Russia vs the West they probably wouldn't bomb minor countries.

What's more likely to be nuked, London or Tirana?

If there are thousands of nukes flying around and hitting targets all over the world it doesn't really matter where you life. You are absolutely right you won't die because of an impact or direct radiation in Tirana but you will die from nuclear fallout of many destroyed nuclear power plants or just because the sky turns dark for weeks or months.
Depending on your definition of major, there are quite a bunch of places in France that would be more than 200 km away from one.

Only 7 "urban areas" have more than 1 M inhabitants. Of those, the first two have almost 25% of the country's total population [0].

Also, I'd expect the huge and sparsely populated Nordic countries to fit the bill, too.

[0] https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_des_aires_urbaines_de_Fr...

Another take is, would you like to live in a world like that? Me, not necessarily.

But frankly, I don't believe a nuclear war is imminent. In spite of what we see in the new, Putin's army is moving on steadily and occupying more and more areas he wanted to have. At some point Ukraine will lose access to the sea. Then Putin can say, OK, I agree to peace - but he will never give the occupied areas back. And good luck getting these cities back without killing your own people - this is a completely different situation than defending a city that hasn't been captured yet.

Nuclear war would be possible if NATO decided to intervene. But they are crystal clear they will not and nukes are the only reason. Everybody is sending a lot of help, but not a single soldier (even though some individuals want to go on their own - but that's a completely different story than a military intervention).

You still get to die of the radiation, good times.
I think the climate change / nuclear winter is the real issue. Life would become hell for a few years like in some horror shows we all like seeing, don't think I'd like to stick around if that happens but that's a personal choice.
Right.

At some level I'm afraid I think to myself: well my existence is a tiny cosmological insignificance, I cannot control that it is going to end at some point, and there's a significant likelihood it'll end in considerable suffering or in a way I can't predict.

It's hard to maintain that train of thought in the face of fear and I have little self-assurance that I'd manage it in more severe circumstances, but it is part of the process I use to deal with intrusive dark thoughts.

Every day in Ukraine there are people walking out in front of heavy mobile armaments with a single, hand-made incendiary, or just to stand in the way and demand that men with guns leave.

And every one of those people is making this rationalisation, at some level.

Stoics seek out likeminded friends, as well, I think. In this most recent case, more or less an entire country of them.

I agree, although I had a slightly different view of Stoicism.

I always viewed Stoicism as a kind of Spock-like attitude. You can think rationally about something and not give in to emotions.

In this context I view it as being able to think clearly about what to do or reflect on it, but not give in to fear, anger or other emotions.

Exactly. It's very hard to do, we are pretty much wired to worry...there are many evolutionary benefits for excessive worrying. Stoicism just tries to direct that energy to the things you can control.

I am now dealing with two sick elderly parents. There are many many moments where I feel like dispair, fatigue, guilt or any other negative feeling. When these bad feelings pop up I actively try to focus on any task that can help their situation - make a phone call to some doctor or care provider, call them and ask them how they are, read about latest treatments etc. If I find that at this particular moment there's nothing much I can do - I try to let it slide. It's not under my control so no point in worrying.

It works surprisingly well many times, but there is no complete cure to worrying. Worrying is human.

By watching this on repeat: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YHLU0Uej1WA

Though that’s probably not a super useful coping mechanism. Still, the ending is 11 out of 10.

People repost all kinds of very old videos and "flip" the teams on social media (either on purpose or accidentally), so I am amazed that I didn't see yet smaller bits taken out of context from this video to cause even bigger panic.
I've hit a bar and got drunk yesterday with a buddy to talk about this whole mess. As I've heard people talking around us, we weren't the only ones.

My point is, find someone and vent what's on your mind.

Stay busy (hobby, work, family). Worry about what you can control.
Long walks on a sunny day along Danube really help. Cut the news (only read war related stuff for 10 minutes every second day). And accept that most of that is out of your control anyway. Cherish and enjoy life every single day.
I cope with it by learning more about it. Books I've read and recommend include: Command and Control by Eric Schlosser, The Doomsday Machine by Daniel Ellsberg, Hiroshima by John Hersey, The Making of the Atomic Bomb by Richard Rhodes. More generally I have taken an interest in existential risk, and can recommend The Precipice by Toby Orb.

I am going to die one day or another, and everything I know and love will be changed and destroyed either in my lifetime or after. Trying to internalise this is very difficult but the grim reading has somehow helped me understand it to some small degree, and helps me focus on the wonder and preciousness of this brief moment of existence.

Being somewhat prepared reduces stress.
I can attest to this. I live on a major fault line. I got serious about natural disaster preparedness back in 2017 with Hurricane Harvey and seeing how the federal response was so bungled. It puts my mind at significant ease knowing that I have my families basic needs covered for 4-6 months. It took a long time to procure everything, to plan everything, it was a fair amount of money, and I continue to spend an hour or two managing all of this on a monthly basis, but it shaves off a worthwhile amount of background anxiety for me, personally, so it's time and money well spent.
There are two wars: the physical war in the Ukraine, and the propaganda war being waged globally through media. you cannot trust any media about the war, it is attempting to fan a flame.

If you are like most people, you cannot influence events. Like most people, discussing the situation is simply exchanging propaganda, because we have no real information.

As the majority are productivity halted by these events we have no control, take advantage of the low activity in others to get things done. May as well, because everyone else is wasting their time.

Do what you can (donate money to Ukraine for example) to prevent it and not overthink.
Looking at the length of Putin's table and realizing this cleptocrat has 0 desire to die.
That is actually the most re-assuring answer, thanks.
(comment deleted)
He may be dying already or he may have another irrational reason to do it. Not saying it's likely but it can't be ruled out.
People are required to spend 2 weeks in isolation before meeting in person without the table thingy. So he is litteraly that afraid of omicron. His whole shtick is low grade USSR style psychops that west keeps falling for. It seems only Ukrainians are ballsy enough to call his bluff.
Not sure if this helps but I feel that there is nothing I can do about it so I just don't think about it. Being busy with work, social etc obviously makes that easier.
I don't live by a major city, so I would be out of the blast radius.
Are you also off-planet because of the fallout that would wash over our planet for the next several months? Because the blast radius is quite limited, but a nuclear annihilation scenario has vast amounts of radioactive dust circling the planet for quite a while.
Work. Especially something that needs my full attention and that prevents me from checking out the news.
As a Ukrainian in the US, I am not scared of that. I am scared for the people over there. Hell, I am scared for the 19 year old Russian conscripts that were marched into Ukraine under what seems to be like false pretenses. Those kids and actual children hiding in basements and subways there are all really truly scared. The women being raped there are scared and I am scared for them.

But the nuclear attacks don’t scare me at this point. Best coping mechanism: stop lying to yourself that you must stay informed. Block your favorite news sites and focus on a project instead. Unless you want to get on a plane and go over there to fight (which the Ukrainian MOD has made an option for anyone who wants to [1]), what is your being informed actually doing for anyone at this point? If it is detrimental to your mental health trust me you should turn off the news and take care of yourself. Again, as someone whose home town is currently being shelled I think you should do that. Go create something useful in the world instead. That’s the right answer.

[1] https://kyivindependent.com/national/who-can-and-cant-join-u...

Excellent summary, if nuclear war starts all you need is a gun and enough bullets for your family.

It's brutal logic but there is nothing that an average person can do to survive nuclear war. Only remote isolated farmer/survival communities will be able to make it, if they will survive nuclear winter.

Anyone else in long term will not be able to get food with no petrol, electricity and slowly starve to death. And even if you are in surviving community the life will be back to limited tech, village-state civilization.

The idea that an all-out nuclear war will trigger a civilization-ending nuclear winter has been on shaky ground for a while now. It appears the likelihood of it happening to such a degree was based on the political/idealist desire to reduce the nuclear stockpile. [1][2]

For a more realistic view of nuclear war and its survivability, check out [2] (with a foreword by Edward Teller and author's note by Eugene Wigner of Wigner's friend fame).

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter#Criticism_and_d... [2] Kearny, C. Nuclear war survival skills

With things like the Iron Dome and Patriot Missile System I'm certain the US has the capability to knock some number of incoming nuclear weapons out of the sky. People in rural and even suburban areas in the US will probably be fine, maybe lose a few years life expectancy due to cancers and the like.
Lack of insulin, antibiotics medical expertise.

That will take a higher toll then you might expect

I agree nuclear winter might not occur or not be all that impactful, however you still will have mass starvation as all supply chains will just disappear, including fuel for power plants. Cities will not be able to supply food and sustain themselves unless in very rare and specific scenarios.

One way or another not a fun place to live

Somebody's been watching way too much TV. Protecting yourself may be useful in an apocalypse, but it's far down the list. Top of the list is having some way to get clean water. Second is knowing and trusting your neighbors.
I just dont spend cycles thinking about things i have no control over.

I guess its just a mindset thing. Sorry if thats not helpful.

I have a very rough plan of where I'd move if things started to look really bad. That's the only thing under my control.