Poll: Who will win the self-driving car bet, John Carmack or Jeff Atwood?

John Carmack is waging $10K that by January 1, 2030, completely autonomous self-driving cars meeting SAE J3016 level 5[a] will be commercially available for passenger use in major cities. Jeff Atwood is waging $10K on the opposite:

https://blog.codinghorror.com/the-2030-self-driving-car-bet/

Who do you think will win the bet?

[a] https://www.sae.org/binaries/content/assets/cm/content/blog/sae-j3016-visual-chart_5.3.21.pdf