10 comments

[ 3.6 ms ] story [ 15.9 ms ] thread
But... isn't that the point? Bitcoin was designed to evade such controls. And it can't.
Because Bitcoin currently has to be converted to a country-supported currency to be spent. If you could buy everything directly with Bitcoin then the Bitcoin-to-currency chokepoints would not work (and it is possible that some volume of Bitcoin already escapes such control points). I'm starting to think of cryptocurrencies not as currencies or like gold but as a replacement for banks and exchanges and SWIFT. Central bank supported cryptocurrencies may encourage much wider acceptance of them as a direct person-to-person/business-to-business/person-to-business/government-to-person method of exchange, bypassing banks. Of course government approved cryptocurrencies may also be designed to track all transactions complete with identity of the participants.
Again, several economists, such as Paul Krugman, have pointed out that Bitcoin is a bit like gold in that it will be attractive when real interest rates are rock bottom, but it will be a laggard in an environment of rising interest rates. The long era after the crisis of 2008, when interest rates were 0%, were ideal for Bitcoin. But we are now entering an era of rising inflation and rising rates, and so Bitcoin is likely to do poorly in the years ahead.
I found this comment confusing, because I’ve only ever cited the opinion of Paul Krugman as evidence that its opposite must be true.
Unlike gold coin in drawer, it is straightforward to earn yield on crypto. Some methods of crypto yield are centralized, and some are not.
Crypto yield has to compete with similar risk adjusted returns from securities with an underlying in a rising interest rate environment.
Because "this moment" was anticipated and is accounted for in the current price. Bitcoiners are a paranoid group and have been expecting government overreach for years. Those late to the party, like DHH, are a minority.
This is the right answer, and will not be appreciated by this crowd.