"or just conventional battle between US/Europe and Russia/China?"
Almost no way that that doesn't devolve into nuclear weapons being used as defeat for someone nears. Desperate people do desperate and unreasonable things.
If it comes down to WW3, then it would end with the carving up of Russia into something more managable like Germany was, plus removing their nukes. Nixon tried the mad man with nukes threat when he was president. Didn't work there either. What we are seeing is Russia's death throes. Communism failed in the late 60's and capitalism saved china when Nixon opened them up in 72. Then Russia went deeper Iron Curtain and plundered and suppressed its populace to 'succeed'. They are suppressing Ukrain because if Ukrain (and Shell) tapped into the Ukrainian oil reserves, they'd be about the #14 oil producing state, and just happened to also be the main pipeline to europe for the USSR. Russia fears that Ukrain could subvert their oil empire. Ukrain will, and already has, because no one will do business with Russia.
"Why is the West confident that helping Ukraine won't trigger WW III?"
They're not. They're fine providing some resources, but are not willing to take other steps. There's no direct involvement, they're not willing to provide stuff like the Polish MIG-29s, etc. The sanctions could provide a cyber war. I'm slightly surprised it hasn't happened yet, but expect that it likely could happen in the next three months.
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[ 3.5 ms ] story [ 27.5 ms ] threadThe whole peace in our time thing didn't work out super great last time. At some point you can't just cave indefinitely.
I agree though that I can easily imagine Putin feeling too backed into a corner and bad things happening as a result.
If China throws in with Russia, that would be a possible world War.
But with Russia alone, with the sanctions placed on them by the globe, they will likely not be able to sustain a large scale multi front conflict.
Almost no way that that doesn't devolve into nuclear weapons being used as defeat for someone nears. Desperate people do desperate and unreasonable things.
They're not. They're fine providing some resources, but are not willing to take other steps. There's no direct involvement, they're not willing to provide stuff like the Polish MIG-29s, etc. The sanctions could provide a cyber war. I'm slightly surprised it hasn't happened yet, but expect that it likely could happen in the next three months.