HN Explorer

Ask HN: Resources to Understand the Conflict?

4 points by etamponi ↗ HN
Of course speaking about the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

I'd be interested in understanding better what a diplomatic end of the war would look like. That is: what exactly both parties are likely to give up to end the conflict early? What does "early" likely mean?

I know that the question is very broad and answers can only be guesses: instead of focusing on opinions, perhaps it might be useful to share sources, tweets and explanations from experts.

5 comments

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verdverm
I'm compiling a list of quality, long-form conversations and discussions here:

https://verdverm.com/ukraine

I don't think that the Russians are negotiating in good faith. They sent one of Putin's philosophers who's ideas justified their invasion. They have been readjusting for a longer conflict whilst doing so. I don't expect the war to end soon.

s1artibartfast
>I don't think that the Russians are negotiating in good faith.

Why do you think this? From my perspective, it seems like their current demands are consistent with their demands years prior and immediately before the war.

verdverm
The two sentences right after that explain why. They have also gone back on everything they have agreed to in previous negotiations. Their reason for being upset was one of those things they agreed was ok a long time ago.

They shouldn't be let to have demands over another country. This is where the west is failing

s1artibartfast
I guess I don't see either of those points as very compelling or self contained. Surely any country would continue preparing for failure of peace talks until they are successful. Likewise, if Putin's philosophical position is what is being accurately articulated in negotiations, I don't see how that is bad faith. It would be bad faith to send someone who didn't represent Putin's views.

Having unattractive and uncompromising conditions or demands is entirely different than dishonesty.

>They shouldn't be let to have demands over another country.

This is beside the point of if they are negotiating in good faith.

s1artibartfast
I don't think anyone has a clear view about what a diplomatic end to the war would actually look like. Although Russia has been fairly clear on it's demands, a lot of ambiguity remains on how they would actually be implemented in Ukraine, and what post war foreign relations look like for Russia. e.g. is there any path to more stable relations with the western world.

I suggest reading articles an analysis prior to 2022 for context. I find that it far more objective than writing after the outbreak of war.

The two Wikipedia articles linked were also very helpful in understanding the situation

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine%E2%80%93NATO_relations...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93NATO_relations