HN Explorer

Poll: Do you think Russia planned on the sanctions and this outcome?

3 points by servytor ↗ HN
Here is a list of sourced facts:

At the highest level in Russia, they are operating with typewriters, bypassing any computer surveillance, so we might have no clue how they operate[0]. They have tested separating their entire countries networks from the internet and making sure everything still works[1]. Right now they are selling their oil only in Rubles[2]. Like other countries, they have planned a digital currency, but the Bank of Russia started the pilot stage of the digital ruble 2 days before the Ukrainian invasion[3]. Russia is considering accepting Bitcoin for oil and gas[4]. According to the IMF, Russia's national debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 18.9% at the end of 2020, making Russia one of the least indebted countries in the world[5]. Russia allows its businesses to steal patents from anyone in ‘unfriendly’ countries[6].

My hypothesis:

Russia has planned to become as independent as possible, to become the first major nation state to issue and entirely depend on their own digital currency, and use their oil exports to force its spread. The impact of switching to a digital currency for oil could possibly cause a worldwide shift away from the petrodollar in oil producing nations, which could completely jeopardize the economy of America. With the ability to now not regard patent law, they will be a safe haven to companies that will be able to create copycats of existing technology, and allow for innovation at a much higher rate. I think that the sanctions against Russia will perhaps have the inverse effect people predicted, and make them more patriotic now that they are seen as enemies by many.

[0]: https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2013/07/to-avoid-leaks-russia-turns-to-typewriters/

[1]: https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-50902496

[2]: https://qz.com/2146333/russia-wants-the-west-to-pay-for-oil-and-gas-in-rubles/

[3]: https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/02/16/bank-of-russia-proceeds-with-digital-ruble-renews-push-for-crypto-ban/

[4]: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60870100

[5]: https://commodity.com/data/russia/debt-clock/

[6]: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/03/09/russia-allows-patent-theft/

5 comments

[ 2.8 ms ] story [ 19.8 ms ] thread
rvz
> Russia has planned to become as independent as possible, to become the first major nation state to issue a digital currency,

I would say one of the first since China [0] already has issued their digital yuan CBDC. [0] But it seems that Russia has prepared for this years ahead and where ready to be hit with the sanctions.

> I think that the sanctions against Russia will perhaps have the inverse effect people predicted

Perhaps so.

[0] https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/11/china-digital-yuan-pboc-to-e...

servytor
Edited it, I wrote incorrectly. I know other countries have created digital currencies, I am trying to say they are trying to become the first massive nation dependent on their own.
hunglee2
Russia had sanction preparation, good evidence includes building up a massive central bank reserves, testing a national wide 'cut the Internet' in 2016, forcing foreign big tech to operate under national security laws (which they mainly didn't and left).

However, I don't think Putin anticipated freezing central bank reserves (pretty much the metaphorical nuclear option), nor the massive voluntary disengagement of mainly Western private companies, which will likely cripple many sectors of the Russian manufacturing base, nor the German U-turn on Nordstream-2

OP second paragraph is prescient, severity of the sanctions, as well as their unilateral nature, will have every country's national security experts looking out how they can hedge in a world where at any moment you may fall foul of the US

darthrupert
I think Putin and his friends were smart at some point in history, but their capacity has deteriorated greatly in the last 5-10 years. Thinking that they are behaving with great clarity is as mistaken as thinking that they're completely out of their minds.

Instead, they're just... old. Biden is of course old as well, but he is clearly not making the huge mistake of deciding everything himself.

It's not a coincidence that Zelensky is in his 40s. This conflict is very much the old generations trying for the last time to keep the upcoming generation down. Also inside Russia this is the juxtaposition.

SCAQTony
Vladimir Putin and senior Russian politicians have suggested that they want to run the map and return Russia back to its former Soviet Union boarders. Though Putin denied this, the man has an infamous history with the truth. Europe/NATO now considers Russia an existential threat and a unifying threat. Would European customers appreciate financing a potential enemy with their own valuable currencies?

Ten countries represent 90% of Russian oil purchases. Eight of them are NATO countries, one of them, South Korea, is a fellow traveler who is in talks with NATO. Europe bought up about 42 percent of Russia's total oil production per year. China purchased 14 percent and 30 percent stayed in Russia. China is their biggest customer.

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/597882-here-ar... Russia

A digital currency will not be a magical weapon relegating the US dollar to history. Bitcoin Transaction Per Second speed is notoriously quite anemic. "...4.6 transactions per second. Visa does around 1,700 transactions per second on average (based on a calculation derived from the official claim of over 150 million transactions per day)..." At the time of this writing the Ruble is less than a penny to the USD and only two countries outside Russia accept the Ruble. I don't see any economic benefit by supporting purchasing oil from a potential enemy.

https://towardsdatascience.com/the-blockchain-scalability-pr...