Regarding fertilizer I don't think there is panacea due to its dependence on Natural Gas. Also, it doesn't seem to be problematic for India and China as they are open to import oil and fertilizer from Russia.
Looks like US is not just sanctioning Russia, but also sanctioning poor countries, adhering to US, that depends on Russia fertilizers, wheat, cooking oils etc.. Anyway, US don't have any choice, but this also proves reality always foreshadow ethics. I hope countries will focus more on peace, rather than promotion of hawkish ideas.
You have to look at geo political implications if China or Russia wouldn’t help theses poorer countries they lose all the impact they made over the last decade by providing infrastructure to these countries. It’s not the clear cut case you make it out to be. The whole fertilizer production problem is also more of a logistical problem because fertilizer production is easy and there are a lot of countries with natural gas reserves. Russia on the other hand can’t produce tech or seeds for secondary fruits needed for a proper soil rotation. You can easily kickstart fertilizer production. Tech and seed not so much especially when you take into account that Russia optimized their agriculture for modern single use seeds.
>Looks like US is not just sanctioning Russia, but also sanctioning poor countries,
Roughly 100 million people will starve and suffer from malnutrition due to the wheat/fertilizer and sanctions applied by US (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60623941)
Biden knows and brushed it away during a news conference.
You assume US and the west cares anything at all about people's lives in Africa/India
Don't forget the US already applied sanctions and killed half a million children and Madeleine said it was "worth it"
This might be a relevant calculation if the price rise will lead to increased production, allowing for just as much food to be produced as before (or maybe just slightly less), at an only slightly higher price. But it's not at all clear that that is the situation. It may turn out that there is no way to make up the shortage. If so, there will be a reduction in the amount of food produced. Depending on the magnitude of the reduction, you may die.
You’re assuming that 6.22tn is all from domestically produced base materials and therefore the correct denominator component for that 18.6bn number. I cannot find what base materials imports compose that number but I bet you it adds quite a few hundred basis points to your equality.
Just look at origin of packaging for most food items. They are often not the US, and shipping to/from external counties of origin isn’t economical.
You're assuming that it's simply a component that will be passed on in the price, rather than affecting the supply/demand levels, or being multiplied by the margins of various intermediaries?
> Total retail and food services sales in the U.S. $6.22tn
Every dollar that passes through every restaurant or grocery store, plus all commercial catering? Is some of that double-counting food processing as well?
> Total retail and food services sales in the U.S. $6.22tn
I cannot bring myself to believe that that number means what it sounds like it means, because the total GDP of the USA is $24.8 trillion and that makes food 25% of the American economy, which seems implausibly high.
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[ 6.9 ms ] story [ 46.7 ms ] threadLooks like US is not just sanctioning Russia, but also sanctioning poor countries, adhering to US, that depends on Russia fertilizers, wheat, cooking oils etc.. Anyway, US don't have any choice, but this also proves reality always foreshadow ethics. I hope countries will focus more on peace, rather than promotion of hawkish ideas.
Roughly 100 million people will starve and suffer from malnutrition due to the wheat/fertilizer and sanctions applied by US (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60623941)
Biden knows and brushed it away during a news conference. You assume US and the west cares anything at all about people's lives in Africa/India
Don't forget the US already applied sanctions and killed half a million children and Madeleine said it was "worth it"
Madeleine Albright Dies at 84; Once Defended U.S. Sanctions Despite Deaths of 500K+ Iraqi Children https://www.democracynow.org/2022/3/24/former_secretary_stat...
It was an entirely predictable outcome based on one country's actions.
Just look at origin of packaging for most food items. They are often not the US, and shipping to/from external counties of origin isn’t economical.
> Total retail and food services sales in the U.S. $6.22tn
Every dollar that passes through every restaurant or grocery store, plus all commercial catering? Is some of that double-counting food processing as well?
I cannot bring myself to believe that that number means what it sounds like it means, because the total GDP of the USA is $24.8 trillion and that makes food 25% of the American economy, which seems implausibly high.
Retail food & beverage is $850bn while groceries is $800bn, so that makes about $1.6tn combined.
Most of the times, retail has a profit margin of around 5-10% and restaurant is even worse with around 1% margin.
An increase in base price has a knock on effect that ripples through the entire system.