What are these guys expecting? The Wii came out 5 years ago. Where's the followup? The Wii 2 isn't coming out this xmas, so we're looking at 6 year cycles on what's essentially disposable consumer electronics.
I'd love to see the industry shift to 3 year cycles with backwards compatibility. The status quo is begging to be disrupted. I just played 30 minutes of BF3 yesterday and its a world of difference on whats going on in the console world, and my rig isn't some impressive gaming rig. The current Wii not only doesn't come close to my PC, its weaker than my phone.
Yes, gaming shouldn't be all about the graphics, but giving developers some leeway and a decent GPU now and again should be part of every console company's plan.
Gabe Newell thinks Apple is going to launch a console. Dunno if that's true, but I'll bet you they aren't looking at 5 or 6 year cycles like MS and Nintendo. Just doing what these guys do with a 2 or 3 year cycle is going to each their lunch.
"Gabe Newell thinks Apple is going to launch a console."
He could be right - but rather than a console, just an 'iOS device' that plugs into your TV and runs app store stuff. Music, movies, games, etc. If they nail the control surface then it could be a big deal.
The iPad 2 and iPhone 4S can mirror their display to the Apple TV over Wi-Fi. Provided the response time is somewhere in the range of "useful" (for reference, OnLive works within ~12ms over the Internet IIRC) and they market it properly, they'd own the home market. And even if raw streaming is too slow; the Apple TV packs an A4 SoC. Not as powerful as a Xbox 360, but at $99 it's also way cheaper. Run the game locally, use your iPod Touch as a controller.
Gazing into my crystal ball, I think the next generation of consoles may well be the last. Cloud gaming services like OnLive, which offer games on demand to whatever device you happen to be using, are going to be the ones eating everyone else's lunch.
There may still be a (much smaller) market for a dedicated set-top device which connects to these services, but it'll be commoditised. The only way I could see Apple getting involved in this is if they add gaming services to the Apple TV. Which could actually be quite a good fit, now that I think of it.
That will happen when web apps will completely replace device-specific apps, and by that I mean that it's one of those predictions I don't think will completely pan out.
OnLive will face several challenges that will make a console-solution innately better due to the unavoidable issue of latency. As a gamer what might seem like insignificant amounts of lag can ruin gameplay. If not are the user's actions subjected to lag, but also their display and other calculations this can really be a deal-breaker for many customers.
I'm sure there are games for which OnLive is perfectly suited, and in those categories OnLive and its successors will dominate. But I also believe there are categories of gaming for which consoles and dedicated devices will continue to dominate. Much like PC gaming hasn't been wiped off the face of the earth.
I'm very concerned about Nintendo but only because it was the first console that I grew up with and loved, though my first was an Atari 2600.
They've lost it. Their next-gen console strategy looks like a desperate attempt against Apple even though their immediate threat is MS.
I've always wondered what would happen if Nintendo would become a 3rd party platform developer. I don't think that's very far from the truth today even though their 1st party games are still the benchmark for gaming.
These guys can own the App Store if they just suck it up and start offering their old titles on iOS. Unfortunately Japan's corporate culture doesn't take well to being a purely software company.
Isn't Sega a Japanese company that dropped their consoles and went software-only? They're still in business and doing well. If you've been to Japan and have seen or played Border Break (an arcade-only game), you know they've still got it. They also still make Sonic games.
There's no reason that Nintendo couldn't follow suit. Pride is probably the biggest obstacle preventing that from happening, but if/when things get bad enough, they'll make the switch.
None of the recent Sonic games have been anywhere near the standard that they used to be. Sega, to me, are a sad example of a company that used to make great games consoles & games and are now resigned to manufacturing mediocre games. I would be gutted if Nintendo went the same way.
I'm not saying the Sonic games are great, but that it's proof that Nintendo could still keep their brand characters (Mario and friends, Link, Samus, etc) without a console.
Proof that Sega still knows how to make great games:
Its hardly surprising really. Everything Ninty have come up with in recent years is cheap and gimmicky or Pokemon (which I love but you can have too much of a good thing!!)
The DS was pretty awesome but is slowly being replaced with the iphone. I refuse to buy a 3DS purely on the basis that its horrible and gives me migraines - imagine what its going to do to a new generation of young eyeballs!
I have no problems with the 3DS. I think it's a great handheld console - the software library has been a bit limited so far, but replaying Ocarina of Time having not played it since it launched on N64 has been great. The 3D effects add something special to what is already a brilliant game.
It's unfortunate that some people are experiencing headaches etc with the stereoscopic 3D. New Mario & Mario Kart titles are being released soon, and despite the inevitable groans that Nintendo are just rehashing old franchises (which they are), I struggle to think of any of the recent rehashes that weren't great. The 3DS lineup will improve and improve. I think it's great.
Nintendo is in real trouble, this is only the beginning. The huge decline in 3DS sales should be a warning shot. $200 handhelds w/ $40 games are a joke in 2011. Wii, a novelty that rode the back of a huge economic bubble, was probably the worst thing to happen to them long term - it gave the company confidence to stay on its insular course.
Nintendo is too proud to go software-only. They need a hardware product in every home in order to perpetuate their real strength: characters and brands. Wii2 is going to be a huge flop in this recession. Don't bet on Nintendo.
What we have here is a full blown disruption from the iOS platform, Android smartphones and Facebook games. Nintendo's customers gained with Wii and DS didn't stick around.
Sony should be next to fall with their Vita platform which learned nothing from the current disruptors.
Microsoft has sidestepped this disruption with Kinect + foregoing a mobile gaming device and just turn WP7 into a gaming platform (in 2012)
The underwhelming sales for the 3DS only reinforce for me that there will be no future market for handheld consoles. Pretty soon, everyone and his mother (literally, my 60+ mother who can barely use the internet got a smartphone because it was the same price "free" as a regular phone) will have a smartphone with 1Ghz+ processors and amazing graphics capabilities. Who wants to carry around 2 devices when 1 will suffice for almost everything?
Consoles will continue to have a place in the gaming industry, but everyone who wants a Wii already has one and the technology is outdated and/or surpassed (e.g. maximun 480p resolution in a time when everyone has an HDTV, other systems have motion sensors) that there isn't much revenue left to squeeze from it. The Wii U could be a spectacular success of the same proportions as the original, but those types of successes are pretty rare (and I'm not hearing of any revolutionary changes such as the motion-sensor controls of the original Wii).
Remember that before the Wii came out and had its greater-than-expected success, Nintendo had basically become a distant third place behind Sony and Microsoft. I think its at another inflection point in its history and needs the Wii U to be another smash critical success or its in huge trouble.
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[ 3.5 ms ] story [ 43.2 ms ] threadI'd love to see the industry shift to 3 year cycles with backwards compatibility. The status quo is begging to be disrupted. I just played 30 minutes of BF3 yesterday and its a world of difference on whats going on in the console world, and my rig isn't some impressive gaming rig. The current Wii not only doesn't come close to my PC, its weaker than my phone.
Yes, gaming shouldn't be all about the graphics, but giving developers some leeway and a decent GPU now and again should be part of every console company's plan.
Gabe Newell thinks Apple is going to launch a console. Dunno if that's true, but I'll bet you they aren't looking at 5 or 6 year cycles like MS and Nintendo. Just doing what these guys do with a 2 or 3 year cycle is going to each their lunch.
He could be right - but rather than a console, just an 'iOS device' that plugs into your TV and runs app store stuff. Music, movies, games, etc. If they nail the control surface then it could be a big deal.
There may still be a (much smaller) market for a dedicated set-top device which connects to these services, but it'll be commoditised. The only way I could see Apple getting involved in this is if they add gaming services to the Apple TV. Which could actually be quite a good fit, now that I think of it.
OnLive will face several challenges that will make a console-solution innately better due to the unavoidable issue of latency. As a gamer what might seem like insignificant amounts of lag can ruin gameplay. If not are the user's actions subjected to lag, but also their display and other calculations this can really be a deal-breaker for many customers.
I'm sure there are games for which OnLive is perfectly suited, and in those categories OnLive and its successors will dominate. But I also believe there are categories of gaming for which consoles and dedicated devices will continue to dominate. Much like PC gaming hasn't been wiped off the face of the earth.
They've lost it. Their next-gen console strategy looks like a desperate attempt against Apple even though their immediate threat is MS.
I've always wondered what would happen if Nintendo would become a 3rd party platform developer. I don't think that's very far from the truth today even though their 1st party games are still the benchmark for gaming.
There's no reason that Nintendo couldn't follow suit. Pride is probably the biggest obstacle preventing that from happening, but if/when things get bad enough, they'll make the switch.
Proof that Sega still knows how to make great games:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qd1tuZs55Ko&NR=1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7sb_qlP8Gs
The DS was pretty awesome but is slowly being replaced with the iphone. I refuse to buy a 3DS purely on the basis that its horrible and gives me migraines - imagine what its going to do to a new generation of young eyeballs!
It's unfortunate that some people are experiencing headaches etc with the stereoscopic 3D. New Mario & Mario Kart titles are being released soon, and despite the inevitable groans that Nintendo are just rehashing old franchises (which they are), I struggle to think of any of the recent rehashes that weren't great. The 3DS lineup will improve and improve. I think it's great.
Nintendo is too proud to go software-only. They need a hardware product in every home in order to perpetuate their real strength: characters and brands. Wii2 is going to be a huge flop in this recession. Don't bet on Nintendo.
Sony should be next to fall with their Vita platform which learned nothing from the current disruptors.
Microsoft has sidestepped this disruption with Kinect + foregoing a mobile gaming device and just turn WP7 into a gaming platform (in 2012)
Consoles will continue to have a place in the gaming industry, but everyone who wants a Wii already has one and the technology is outdated and/or surpassed (e.g. maximun 480p resolution in a time when everyone has an HDTV, other systems have motion sensors) that there isn't much revenue left to squeeze from it. The Wii U could be a spectacular success of the same proportions as the original, but those types of successes are pretty rare (and I'm not hearing of any revolutionary changes such as the motion-sensor controls of the original Wii).
Remember that before the Wii came out and had its greater-than-expected success, Nintendo had basically become a distant third place behind Sony and Microsoft. I think its at another inflection point in its history and needs the Wii U to be another smash critical success or its in huge trouble.