Coinbase Burn Rate 1.5 Bil? Will This Company Last?

49 points by Hchanni ↗ HN
Curious, as I'm worried honestly as a prospective employee, will the company even last?

I wonder if Brian will reply to this cause I'm curious to see what the burn rate is now with the layoffs and rescinds of offers, and how the company is planning to live through a 2-3 year maybe more recession + crypto winter.

51 comments

[ 3.2 ms ] story [ 104 ms ] thread
I thought I'd add, I'm personally really into Crypto and want to see Coinbase last, and so this worries me a bit lol
They're obligated to announce a strategy or attitude that sounds reassuring, but you can bet that most of the execs, board, and investors are at least as worried as you are.

Nobody honest leverages as much they have without believing the diaster scenarios are either a long shot or are far out. You don't win over today-money with presentations like "well, we'll probably hit a -80% crypto winter next year but can weather our way through 5 flat years if you give us oodles of capital now"

Yeah honestly, I feel like it has been handled the best with the public perception, and the way the twitter fiasco has been handled. However, I really feel the CPO (Chief Product Officer) really needs to get through some more concrete expectations and roadmaps. With the amount he's being paid his general perception around the company doesn't seem to be too hot.
I sincerely hope that Coinbase will survive and thrive through the difficult times in the next several years. They made trading cryptocurrencies easy and accessible to people, which is a fantastic service. However, if you are a customer, I would highly recommend that you used Coinbase for intended purpose only: as a (pretty good) Crypto Exchange. Do not keep your crypto holdings there. Your crypto is not protected if something, anything, happens to it. Including bankruptcy. It's not a custodial service. I would not keep the USD there either. I would just go in, do the crypto buy/sell and get out.
But where are you recommending people custody their crypto, then?

And the backups?

Worth mentioning: you don't own the coin unless you store the private key yourself.
1. In their own wallets that they control.

2. Backup key in a safe, secure, offline space.

These answers might scare you. They probably should.

This statement should not be misconstrued as anti-crypto.

this without considering they're actively trying to kill the anonymity of crypto by funding chainanalysis and other shit like that
I think chainanalysis would be (and is) funded without Coinbase a thousand time over by VCs and every Government agency. This is unfortunately (or fortunately, who knows?) an inevitability. Every time I say "inevitability" and remember "That is the sound of inevitability, Mr. Anderson..." phrase. :-)
> I wonder if Brian will reply to this

He's too busy dunking on his employees on Twitter

Where did you hear 1.5B?

They lost .5B last quarter I think. Not sure if that's going up or down since they're shedding costs. I have no idea if retail trading is up or down this quarter but it sounds like their NFT marketplace isn't going great?

Idk man. I would come up with some serious questions to ask them before signing on.

Yeah I actually read their shareholders letter, it seems that their Net loss is ~400mil. Which to be fair doesn't seem to be alarming since they were still in their hyper growth phase in Q1. I'd assume their revenue will go down from 1bil to like 650mil at the worst, and their general costs will probably go down too, to around 1bil maybe a bit less too but who knows.
That seems reasonable. It's alarming to me that they seem to have hit a wall. What were the conditions that facilitated their hyper growth phase? Is the introduction of numerous, highly advertised competitors the difference? Are we moving to a place where people are trading less and holding more?

I'd love to know more about their game plan.

> What were the conditions that facilitated their hyper growth phase?

A huge wave of crypto hype and a worldwide asset price bubble (including their stock price as well as crypto currencies) fueled by central-bank money printing during Covid.

> Are we moving to a place where people are trading less and holding more?

Well, just trading less, as the crypto collapse is going to burn (has already burned) so many people that it will take some time before the next round of hype and FOMO builds, so that a new set of bag holders can be found.

Yeah that's what I was pointing to.. But who knows if it will recover and how well. Ripple seems to have some good uses with speeding up money transfers but I wouldn't be shocked if crypto doesn't end up amounting to much in terms of practical applications.
Afaik they remained breakeven/profitable during the last crypto winter following the 2017 bubble with BTC in the 3k-5k range, I don't see why they can't do the same now
They seem like in a "growth phase" and they went from like 1400 employees in 2021 to around 6k up until start of layoffs, and the amount of users + amount of transactions has dipped.
I'm done worrying. I withdrew everything and closed my account. Crypto is a fools errand.
I take it this is your first market cycle?
Crypto has the delightful additional risk of access that other securities don’t really have.

If you don’t offload to a private wallet and Coinbase goes completely defunct, there is no protection. Coinbase’s continued existence (and thus, your coins) and the market cycle of cryptocurrencies are mutually exclusive events.

I agree with your broad point.

Crypto really is just speed running early banking and financial systems.

Many bank runs would destroy banks and depositors were left with nothing. Eventually the FDIC was created to make sure people wouldn't lose everything and to prevent additional bank runs.

What's also interesting to think about is if we will ever see a coin halt transactions to prevent price changes. BTC is unlikely to face this since it's based on proof of work, but maybe a proof of stake protocol might have something like this happen, or a coin that has a small number of miners.

Maybe it would be similar to the few times NYSE has halted trading: https://www.thestreet.com/markets/history-of-notable-market-...

If we're to believe crypto is ideally unregulated then the crypto fdic isn't coming
Like you sold everything for USD or withdrew to cold storage?
Yes. The twin anxiety makers - crypto volatility and threat of Coinbase bankruptcy made my decision to convert everything to cash.
Cash is great, cash is the new gold. Before they were printing money, last millennium. This millennium, they just shift numbers to the left, on a computer. It's all numbers in your app. This is currently considered better, but is much worse.

$20 at most, bigger denominations aren't worth much. I wouldn't accept $100 as payment without someone to verify it, or going together to a bank to deposit it. And like the bills have to be in pristine condition, always complain if someone is trying to give you a damaged bill, that limits its spendability. Gotta know the bills well, maybe ask your bank if they can let you see for yourself the difference between real and fake bills so you can tell the difference. Banks can always get fresh bills by turning in your old ones, to keep up their condition. Plus newer bills have better copy-protection, and are therefore easier to verify.

And guess what? Your purchases will generally not be traced if you pay cash. This is important for books, stationary, electronics, medicine, and charity.

why is it important for charity?
You're paranoid. I have no issue with credit. I pay for everything with Apple Pay and online banking. I limit my online tracking using sensible tools that are available but I don't go to extreme.

My decision had nothing to do with having cash, merely not wanting to be part of the insane volatility of Crypto and the potential loss of assets should Coinbase go bankrupt (which is a very non-zero possibility). Cash is merely the buffer to pay expenses until markets start to return to profitability at which point I'll move it all back to my usual safe index funds and Apple stock (aaaaaaahhhhh). 8-)

I am in fact paranoid. Clinical. Diagnosed. The works.

But I've also gotten out of shitty situations with that paranoia. Another way to describe it is "pessimistic creativity". But I am also risk-seeking, so the whole thing is being totally paranoid strictly in the situations that are actually dangerous, and apart from that, like if there's a threat go to the bunker and stay there as long as it takes without compromises and no regard for peer pressure, apart from that...roam downtown Santiago at 3 in the morning because it's no big deal. I'm no fraidy cat.

Fear what you have to fear, forget about everything else.

How? How can you loose money offering a trading platform where you charge fees unless people stop trading? Is the email/phone support required so costly that they need to hire all these people?

To me it seems they took in more and more money from investors who want to make a quick buck seeing this company's profits double every year. At some point you have to ask yourself if you are growing recklessly und unsustainably.

Maybe if they replace the execs, or specifically Brian :)
Coinbase should reinvent fractional reserve banking and allow itself to issue debt in "basecoins" backed by a fraction of deposits in cryptowallets. SEC might close their shop for that, but they are going bankrupt anyway.
why does this company have this burn rate? it’s just an exchange so you only need maybe 10 people to run it?
To maintain BAU of just the exchange, yeah probably dont need many people. The burn is probably attributed towards other R&D projects, acquisitions, CAC, marketing, partnerships etc etc
what do they need marketing for? there are only a few exchanges anyway. i cannot imagine CAC being much for the same reason. what is BAU?
Business-as-usual. Day-to-day operations etc
I don't care one bit for Coinbase or others like Kraken that have to comply with KYC laws. The popularity of these platforms has reduced crypto to just another thing to gamble on. Derivatives and Forex exist already for that.

Even sites that let you trade with cash and giftcards now require multiple levels of ID verification. There are some chinese companies that are not like this though. It's not so much about anonymity but reliance on government structured order and control in order to engage in commerce effectively making crypto a central bank dollar except no deposit insurance and betting on its value is much more volatile and risky.

Are you saying that unregulated exchanges wouldn't be largely populated by speculators?
Coinbase has been a Trojan horse from the start.
The NFT marketplace is going to take off any day now...