Ask HN: Is Facebook Done?
But it feels like fb is abandoning all of it and going full force to metaverse. It feels like fb wants to be either the biggest or nothing.
But I've serious doubts about metaverse, my eyes get so exhausted from general texting, I can't even dream of putting it on for hours at end. At most I can see myself using VR as another monitor or a controller. Something I use for certain entertainment purposes. Even if it was 5x better in tech - resolution, latency, size, etc. I just don't see myself wearing anything, i can't stand contacts so i wear glasses and i hate glasses too so I take them off when I don't need them.
Then there is chicken-egg problem: no content cuz no users cuz no content... either fb gives millions of ppl very advanced devices for almost free OR spend more than what netflix have on creating content.
Also isn't like 95% of the engineers at facebook all mainly web developers or related. And metaverse is basically game development.. something facebook has no experience in. If someone could make a good game it'd be EPIC (the fortnite creators). Maybe they should acquire or partner up with epic to have some hope.
So back to question: since fb seems to be abandoning everything and metaverse is likely to go no where, is fb done for?
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[ 0.90 ms ] story [ 67.2 ms ] threadhttps://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/21/mark-zuckerberg-shows-early-...
But I think the real next media is already here, TikTok and social video. While the screens are the same, the last decade has seen a shift from text/images to videos. Maybe VR will take over, but not in the same way phones will. You can take your phone out and scroll through whatever very easily, but we are a LONG way from casually putting on a VR headset to consume a few minutes of content.
VR is just part of it, it's the easiest version of XR and will be viable for years before good AR. It's only a stepping stone as technologies mature, and calling it "VR" seems to betray a fundamental misunderstanding. The goal isn't something separate and sequestered from real life, but intertwined with it.
> While the screens are the same, the last decade has seen a shift from text/images to videos
Explicitly commented on (ex 4Q21 ER), text -> images -> video -> ??? as increasing immersion when technology (like bandwidth) allows. Escaping a 2D screen is their attempt to leapfrog 'disruption' (Instagram, TikTok) and own the future before it happens, because they won't be able to buy it with current antitrust positioning.
> But it feels like fb is abandoning all of it and going full force to metaverse. It feels like fb wants to be either the biggest or nothing.
It is Meta, which includes (Facebook, Whatsapp, Instagram and Oculus) that is pushing for this 'metaverse' thing and this reminds me of Microsoft trying to own everything in the software landscape as soon as they won the desktop PC industry.
The failures of Ping (Apple), So.cl (Microsoft) and Google+ (Google) was when Zuckerberg knew he won with social networks with FB and has already expanded beyond FB very early and quickly.
> Also isn't like 95% of the engineers at facebook all mainly web developers or related.
Where did you get that figure from? I hope you are not being serious about that claim.
> And metaverse is basically game development.. something facebook has no experience in.
So Oculus isn't in games development industry? They have been selling shovels to game developers and companies for years.
> ...Maybe they should acquire or partner up with epic to have some hope.
What is this then? [0]
> is fb done for?
No.
I would not bet against the first and the fastest company to reach $1 trillion dollars in the 21st century to be quickly dead in the next 10 years. Meta is more than just Facebook.
[0] https://metaverse-standards.org/news/press-releases/leading-...
1. Half of my friends have stopped being active since 2020. Some say goodbye, most disappear quietly. But I think antivax and all the anti-gov rhetoric was the last straw for most people.
2. The most active accounts are selling something. Some sell insurance, others sell politics.
3. It's unattractive to people in their early 20s or below.
4. Like many other social media, it has become a game to see who can publicly humiliate other people. It's not as bad as Reddit, but the absence of downvotes mean that people can play really dirty.
5. FB moderation is either AI or untrained minimum wage people basically clicking random buttons. The AI is very predictable and documented, so actual trolls know how to get around it or trick people into self banning (e.g. "white trash")
6. Everyone feels that FB is failing, so they stopped investing in it. Less photos, videos, content, and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
I think FB is effectively a sinking ship, a Yahoo. Perhaps the Meta rebranding was them distancing from FB. Instagram is still hot, though.
Six months ago replaced my home computer and decided to just not use it with FB. And I got a new smartphone which I now only use for texting. I find that opening FB at work Monday morning gives me the exact same feeling that TV, radio, and newspapers do.
Umm... you reactivated your profile because something you don't see or use is toxic? What?
I felt the same way and saw all the toxicity back in 2015. I deleted my FB account back then.
Every year since then, people have been predicting Facebooks demise.
Maybe this time, under current market conditions facing the company, and arguably worst public discourse - maybe now this time is different. I don’t know.
I don’t underestimate FB finding a new monetization avenue. I think FB will evolve, whether that is better or worse for society I don’t know.
Nobody wants 4D Farmville though. They're not looking for immersion. They're looking for a minimum effort way to socialize.
FB likely peaked around 2012 (coincidentally around IPO). After that, it was cashing in on the goodwill it had built.
People say it was in decline since the Meta announcement, but I think it was long gone by then. Stock price is a lagging indicator. Meta was a catalyst.
But zuck is right that people (Especially genZ) will use gaming and virtual worlds for their social life. Real life is too busy , disconnected and probably economically much harder than before. The virtual one is better, richer and permanent. My guess is he believes that the world is ready for Second life to go mainstream, and he's building the "whole world" version of it. I have to say he s off-track currently, too much focus on VR. Their avatars really suck. But they'll get there eventually
Instagram was still new enough to beat, and they had the seed for what a more patient company could have grown through all its early mistakes. They might very well have shown Facebook how important chat and photos were in trying to make a Facebook clone and drove them to buy WhatsApp and Instagram. Google built what Facebook had to buy, but they didn't understand what that meant and let them become just another unchanging set of things bolted on to Google.
I don't know if the failure of Google Plus and all the changes they made to the company to serve it were the cause of Google's current state, but it probably didn't help. Facebook was already in the PR pit Google is in before the Meta rebrand. Meta isn't even good VR. There's so much better.
Everyone is on Instagram.