I'd expect the most likely audited place to be sparsely populated. Smaller populations are inherently more variable
-- from Kanheman and Tversky
The term "the law of small numbers" was coined by Tversky and Kahneman (1971) to describe how people exaggerate the degree to which the probability distribution in a small group will closely resemble the probability distribution in the overall population.
Is the IRS's goal to find the most number of incorrect returns, or find the returns with the highest-dollar mistakes? Sounds like it's the first, but probably should be the 2nd.
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[ 2.6 ms ] story [ 18.2 ms ] thread-- from Kanheman and Tversky
The term "the law of small numbers" was coined by Tversky and Kahneman (1971) to describe how people exaggerate the degree to which the probability distribution in a small group will closely resemble the probability distribution in the overall population.
Penny-wise, pound-foolish comes to mind.