I doubt any charges will be pressed, just because it's such a political nightmare. This didn't begin as "Oh, no, somebody is holding nuclear secrets". It began as "Some records should be in the archives". With the records returned, I've got a feeling they're going to dub it "bureacratic cock-up rather than treason", just to avoid the mess.
Still... it would be remarkable if, after all that, he got jail time over paperwork. The Mueller report basically said "he's guilty of a ton of stuff but there's no way to prosecute a sitting president so we're not gonna". It would be vaguely reminiscent of Al Capone getting put in jail for tax evasion.
This was the party who ran for office with the stated goal of jailing their opponent. They failed to do so, but I think we're past the point of "risky precedent".
That's not sufficient reason to continue to jeopardize the situation further. I'd love to believe that actually convicting him of crimes, in court, would make his followers say "maybe that isn't a good direction to be going in". But they've already swallowed the persecution narrative, and neither acting on it nor failing to act on it will alter that.
> they've already swallowed the persecution narrative
It’s not a narrative. It’s two sides escalating their calls and responses. Cato sought to punish Cæsar; in the end, he burned his republic.
Political leadership requires a form of ego death. This isn’t a new concept. Coronation frequently involves a new name. Every system need folks willing to look weak and capitulating, even hypocritical, with respect to totem issues, so they may be brushed aside in favour of the broader context.
His odds of being able to legally run are 25% at best, and even if it got the go-ahead from the party, he could easily decide to back out if he didn't feel the odds were good enough. And the odds of actually getting elected if he did run can't be more than 45% surely, so I'd say at best there's a 10% chance Trump will ever be president again. Sadly there's a much higher chance someone even worse might be one day, even only looking ahead another 2 or 3 elections.
12 comments
[ 1.9 ms ] story [ 35.3 ms ] threadStill... it would be remarkable if, after all that, he got jail time over paperwork. The Mueller report basically said "he's guilty of a ton of stuff but there's no way to prosecute a sitting president so we're not gonna". It would be vaguely reminiscent of Al Capone getting put in jail for tax evasion.
Probably not. One party jailing the other’s de facto leader is risky precedent. But jailing the cronies? Yes. Absolutely.
The only proven defence—from Rome to our Republic—against someone seeking escalating power to escape the law is people around him saying no.
That's not sufficient reason to continue to jeopardize the situation further. I'd love to believe that actually convicting him of crimes, in court, would make his followers say "maybe that isn't a good direction to be going in". But they've already swallowed the persecution narrative, and neither acting on it nor failing to act on it will alter that.
It’s not a narrative. It’s two sides escalating their calls and responses. Cato sought to punish Cæsar; in the end, he burned his republic.
Political leadership requires a form of ego death. This isn’t a new concept. Coronation frequently involves a new name. Every system need folks willing to look weak and capitulating, even hypocritical, with respect to totem issues, so they may be brushed aside in favour of the broader context.
The search warrant and the receipt has now been unsealed: https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.flsd.61.... Notably, the crimes being considered include 18 USC 793, which is the Espionage Act.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-t...
oh looks like all the way down from 27% to 25%