Ask HN: How is it possible that the 45 yo Tom Brady still plays professionally?
On all other sports (except non-athletic ones like archery etc) people over 30 are retiring. In American Football, there's a 45 years old professional player that still competes and is actually very good.
Now, I don't know anything about american football, but how is that even possible ?
41 comments
[ 3.4 ms ] story [ 104 ms ] threadFrom what a much more knowledgeable person told me, “Brady takes what the defense gives him”
Some player run and create plays with their speed and arm. Brady has been playing 20+ years and will read the defense very well and throw the ball pretty accurately to whichever receiver has best chance of a completion even if it’s a short pass. Younger players might go for bigger flashier plays.
Combine this with having the referees be deferential to him and making sure other players are not to rough on him.
He gets the ball, sees his team mates and throws it to them? If that's only what he does then I understand why it's possible that he can play competitively at this age since it doesn't need so much athletic qualifications but mainly strategy/experience.
What he is very good at is seeing how the defense is setup before the play starts and then in the 2-6 second window before a defense guy gets to him, throw the ball to wherever the defense has not covered. This is much easier said than done. You throw a little off to the right or left, or to far or to short not only will your receiver miss it, the defense might catch it and run it back the other way to score points.
Basically very good at reading defense and after his assessment throwing accurately. He also in better shape than maybe 90% of 45 yearolds in the country.
He has to be athletic, though, running away from those chasing him, and, occasionally when there’s no good throw option running himself.
I think Brady is doing well because he is lucky (those guys running towards you can end your career quickly), he’s an outlier (his abilities make him change the odds of getting injured, and being able to keep winning games probably helps keeping him motivated) and he likes the game (in professional sports, it’s not a given that players do. Some are more in it for the money and/or the fame)
Also, the American football season is short (17-ish games), play isn’t continuous, and players are on the field, on average, for only half the game.
However, I do believe having a great coach for majority of his career helps a lot. Patriots plays in a weak division, has great defense, so Brady doesn’t have to come from behind a lot during regular seasons. That reduces a lot of big hits.
For example, in football (soccer) we’re seeing players competitive at the highest level well into their mid-to-late 30s. In cycling (a sport which offers nowhere to hide) Alejandro Valverde is still competing at 42, and was world champion in 2018 in his late 30s.
Is this simply a coincidence? Or maybe they're the elite vanguard of a wave of people who experienced most/all of their career during the age of sports science? I wonder if this will be more and more commonplace: if you have that level of talent and discipline, you can stay at that level for longer.
Federer, Djokovic, and Nadal have collectively dominated mens tennis together for more than 15 years. There is an entire generation of mens tennis players who never reached the upper tier of the sport because these three were so dominant that their only real competition was each other. Also-rans of this era like Murray, Roddick would probably have had their own run at the top in previous decades but just never had a shot against that dominating threesome.
(1) the quarterback position is the least demanding athletically on the whole body: Yes, QBs have strong arms but they don't need to have whole-body strength and speed like running backs and wide receivers. The players in non-QB positions have a peak of ~5 years and then quickly drop off from wear & tear. The QB position depends more on intellect -- "reading the field" and making quick decisions to get rid of the ball -- rather than running all over the field. Similar reason to why place kickers who just kick field goals can have longer careers than running backs.
(2) the particular style Tom Brady plays: he plays in a deliberate "low injury risk" way. He very rarely "scrambles" (runs out of the pocket). Scrambling opens up the quarterback to violent hits from defenders causing season-ending knee and ankle injuries. Famous scramblers that had horrific injuries include Randall Cunningham, Robert Griffin III, etc. Tom Brady got his big chance in the NFL because the QB he replaced (Drew Bledsoe) got injured during a scramble. During a play, Brady stays very aware of the offensive live protection collapsing around him and he instantly tucks the ball and crumples his body. This means he doesn't get body slammed to the ground while his arm is in mid-throwing motion, or get his knees/ankles crushed by defenders.
(3) NFL rules that evolved to protect the quarterback more and more: A 1980s quarterback like Dan Marino would get more physically punished by rushing defenders than today's quarterbacks like Tom Brady. The NFL added stricter rules because the quarterbacks are the highest-profile "stars" of the league so having them not playing on tv because of injuries is not in their best interest.
It seems like nutrition is a minor factor compared to the intrinsic nature of the QB position itself. In other words, even if non-QB positions like running backs and linebackers adopted Tom Brady's exact diet such as avocados and exotic water, etc, that still wouldn't extend their career into age 45. The brutal physical nature of those non-QB positions depends too much on strength and speed and those attributes decline too much into the 40s. Long before Tom Brady, other QBs like Steve Deberg and Vinny Testaverde played at age 44.
As for drugs... if the NFL allowed steroids, it might be possible for physically demanding positions like running backs to play at age 45. But a drug policy change is unrealistic so that's more of a thought experiment rather than a practical way to extend a football career.
Some additional likely factors:
- Luck: Regardless of his conservative playing style, Brady has been hit hard many, many times, but never had a career-ending (or career-shortening) injury.
- Genetics: Brady may have a genetic predisposition for athletic longevity.
- Discipline: Brady may have a superior recovery and self-care regimen. (There are a lot of articles on this topic, eg https://www.healthdigest.com/323870/tom-bradys-intense-routi....)
https://www.scmp.com/magazines/style/celebrity/article/31708...
Some of his success should also be attributed to being with one of the best coaches of all time. Many of the teams he played on had a top defense which really helps in the NFL. And then there's luck that he hasn't had any major injuries.
There have been other players professionally competent into their 40's but it is rare. I think a lot of it is just more knowledge about nutrition, health science, etc.
Nolan Ryan in baseball was an anomoly as well, played for 27 years in a physically demanding position as a pitcher.
"""When asked: "How could you possibly have done the first interactive graphics program, the first non-procedural programming language, the first object oriented software system, all in one year?", Sutherland replied: "Well, I didn't know it was hard"""
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivan_Sutherland
Remarkably, this doesn't appear to be a "career bonus" solely for (the less injury-prone?) point guards or centers. All positions are present, including power forwards like Karl Malone.
I'm not in the US -- could one say that current NBA games have a considerably faster pace (more jump-and-shoot) as compared to, say, the early 1990s? This would probably require more physical strength, which makes the 40+ guys even more interesting.
I played handball during my teens, and I remember a renowned goalkeeper who performed incredibly at age 45+ (possibly even at national team level or thereabouts; at least as first goalie of our country's number one team). IIRC, he was also a dedicated smoker, always having a pre-game cigarette, LOL -- in all seriousness, this probably contributed somewhat to keeping him exceptionally alert during the game.
He is very rare not only in his age but in his very high level of play at that age. Of the players in the NBA list, only Karl Malone was playing at a high level, and only for a short spurt where he stopped Tim Duncan in the Western Conference finals and sent the Lakers to the finals. However, he injured his knee and the Lakers were done for in the finals. The knee injury probably wasn't a freak occurrence but rather a result of a lifetime of wear and tear. He had been so injury free for so long.
I think the most interesting of the things lining up for Tom Brady is his drive to win. It maximizes the other things. He seeks out the best training and recovery techniques. He willingly takes less money to get better teammates. If you are a Tom hater, he cheats like deflating balls below regulation so that they are more catcheable.
Looking at the stats, so was John Stockton. His assists per game did drop over time, but overall stability between 1988-2003 is remarkable IMO. Essentially always 82 games, always in the starting five, always on court around 30 minutes or more.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Stockton#Regular_season
In the light of this thread, interesting quote from Wikipedia -- I didn't know he was considered a "physical player": "Stockton missed only 22 games in his 19-season career. In his first 13 seasons, he missed only four games (all in the 1989–90 season) until he missed the first 18 games of the 1997–98 season due to an injured MCL in his left knee sustained in the preseason. That was the only major injury in his career, and he never missed another game after returning from that injury. Stockton earned the "old school" tag for his physical play; surveys of athletes and fans alike often judged him among the toughest players in the NBA, usually just behind teammate Karl Malone. Stockton's tenacity also earned him a reputation among some in the league as being a dirty player, as suggested by a poll Sports Illustrated conducted in 1997 where he was voted as the second dirtiest player in the league behind Dennis Rodman."
https://www.chicagotribune.com/redeye/redeye-the-nba-is-way-...
Also the athletes that make enough to spend close to a million dollars a year on body maintenance and conditioning will see a great benefit in longevity.
The running patterns the receivers follow are pre determined, but who gets the pass is not. You need to determine, who is open, where will be they be in x seconds, will the defensive line hold or is someone going to knock you down before the pass, is there a good opening to just run for it yourself instead of passing, etc.
So, I guess the answer to all this is "fast progress in sports medicine"