Ask HN: How do I/you prep for the energy crisis in EU?

57 points by juusto ↗ HN
As someone living in one of the countries in the North I can't say I am too alarmed by the looming energy crisis (maybe I have lived over too many crisis already and at some point this alarmism loses its meaning).

Having said that, I am interested on what measures others are taking to prepare for it? It's not like we can just store energy right? Stocking up on foods if the prices increase too much?

Things I've done were just to replace few older bulbs with LEDs and turn of some of the unnecessary appliances (like a second freezer).

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Bought some coal for the winter months. Also going to use wood - but I have enough of my own.
Amongst the many conceits of people like you is that there is such a thing as "enough". If only you give Putin X (Crimea, Donbas, Ukraine, Moldova, Baltics), he will calm down and everything will be alright. The only 'enough' an empire knows is when it collapses.
But appeasement worked so well last time in 1938, when we gave Germany the Sudetenland and satisfied their desire for Lebensraum once and for all! And I'm sure we could have avoided all that unpleasantness in the Pacific if the West had just recognized Manchukuo as well.
Where is your outrage against Israel who shell and attack the Gaza strip and who steal land from the Palestinians in the West Bank?

Where is your outrage when the USA attacks a foreign country with impunity and kills tens of thousands of "collateral damage" civillians in order to gain access to oil and gas resources or strategic trade routes or military positions?

.... all i hear is your silence

But when Russia does something to protect their border, ooooohhh, big bad russia.... must punish with useless sanctions that only hurt EU and the rest of the world.

Like the German Green Party member Annalena Baerbock who does not care if German people freeze and die in winter because a foreign countries conflict is more important than her own people.

" I will put Ukraine first “no matter what my German voters think” or how hard their life gets. "

Zelensky is a puppet for the USA and will never relinquish this failure of a war against Russia, regardless of how many Ukrainians die in the process, because 1) he is receiving essentially and endless supply of arms and military aid from the US and 2) his ego won't allow it.

At least have the decency to not pretend that you actually care about the Palestinians or any other group of people suffering under oppression.
the history of mankind is mired in war and conquest, it is an inescapable part of what makes us human (sadly).

What i don't like is fake outrage and hypocrisy from Zelesnky zealots who seem "ok" with thousands of civilians dying because one actor/Prime Minister can't understand when he is beaten.

If Russia really wanted to, they have the arsenal to level and completely destroy the Ukraine and its infastructure, but they don't. Instead of understanding this fact, Zelesnky continues to "poke the bear" and continues this useless war with ever more fervor.

Sometimes you have to know when you are beaten for the greater good of your countries citizens.

> What i don't like is fake outrage and hypocrisy from Zelesnky zealots who seem "ok" with thousands of civilians dying because one actor/Prime Minister can't understand when he is beaten.

The Ukrainians are fighting for the very existence of their country and people, the Russians commit genocide regularly in Ukraine and regularly kill and rape civilians.

> If Russia really wanted to, they have the arsenal to level and completely destroy the Ukraine and its infastructure, but they don't. Instead of understanding this fact, Zelesnky continues to "poke the bear" and continues this useless war with ever more fervor.

The bear is not getting poked, it's getting destroyed right now, in this month alone Russias losses have been staggering. Ukraine is clearly winning back large amounts of territory now with the counteroffensive. The Russians have melted in the face of a slight resistance.

Who knew that the Russian army was incapable of taking a cities a mere couple hundreds of kilometres from its border?, they are a joke compared to what the world thought of them prior to the invasion this year.

> Sometimes you have to know when you are beaten for the greater good of your countries citizens.

Should tell Putin this before the Russians roll out the T-55s. I don't think they are far off it.

After reading some comments from the history of the other user, I'm asking myself if HN supports shadow banning.
doesn't surprise me that the first response for an opinion other than the mainstream media narrative is censorship and banning the person
You just repeat the talking points prepared for Russian assets. Boring.
Points which are common sense you mean and that any sane individual would agree with
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> when Russia does something to protect their border, ooooohhh, big bad russia

That’s funny, I didn’t realize that Ukraine was inside of Russia’s borders. I thought it was it’s own sovereign country.

it's not about "Zelensky" people support a nation fighting for it's freedom from colonial power gone mad.
Is this like a cold take? I think you're marking the crisis worse...
Yeah, fuck Putin's Russia.
Because appeasement worked so well in 1939?
Putin, but cutting off the gas without any warning, only showed everyone that relying on Russia's gas so much was pure insanity in the first place. Now, Europe will pay the price for that stupidity. Hopefully, it won't be that high and things will come back to normal in a couple of years.

BTW, I wonder if US is paying attention. It's no longer 1940s when the US manufacturing output won WWII, now the US are mainly people sitting in offices, managing production that happens in China. What happens when the tensions between US and China get really serious? If China decides to cut off US's corporations from their manufacturing base, the US is just a bunch of people in offices sending slack messages to each other... That does not win wars.

The US is still has the second largest manufacturing output in the world.

This also isn’t the 1940s anymore in the sense that, while the world and the US are particularly dependent on China, China is also dependent on the rest of the world. Supply chains are global and span multiple countries for even basic items.

It's not too late to invest in mining and energy extraction equities - many are still highly underpriced before the major funds roll into the sector
I'm sure that will keep you warm.
Barring a sudden, total collapse, money is the best prep once you have the basics covered.
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What are some examples of equities to look at?
Installed solar power last year and an air source heat pump. My pellet burner is still going to be the main source of heat/hot water though. Got pellets at the start of the year (with only 80% premium over last year, now the prices are 3x of what they used to be ), have wood to offset use of pellets and even some coal [just in case]. Replaced every bulb with LEDs from IKEA.

Set all rooms in the house to 18-19 c. Going to heat my home office/bedroom to 20-21 c only during the day/while being there.

In my case the problem is that I literally can’t work (meaning, program) if the temperature is less than 22C. Warm clothing, hot drinks, nothing helps. Tried many times.

Hope that electric heating will still be legal.

Yes you can.
Lol yeah, it's like how I say I can't live with these health problems.

Yeah, I can, it turns out. Our bodies can take a loooot more stress than we think.

Decreased comfort = decreased productivity. On an individual level people can cope but on a societal level it’s a real issue. I want a society full of productive people so I want investment in clean energy supplies and high performance buildings.
No, many can't. Yes, you can live and survive at colder temperatures, but concentration requires no distractions, and the constant slight pain caused by being cold is enough distraction to completely derail any train of thought.
Concentration does not require no distractions. It’s the mechanism to avoid distraction.
I take it you don’t have ADHD? The reason people with ADHD often work while wearing noise-cancelling headphones even with no audio playing is because this mechanism doesn’t properly work, it can’t tune out anything.

As result, we need to minimize external stimuli to be able to concentrate. And being uncomfortable due to the cold is one such stimulus.

That's interesting. I realize you can argue about people in general (e.g. 21 is still fine with me!), but how can you negate someone else's feelings? It's like replying "no, you are not" to someone saying "I'm sad."
Make sure you office is the smallest room and get a space heater to keep it at your desired temprature
If your office is the smallest room, then you get fast to high CO2 concentration in the office.
My office is in fact the smallest room, just enough for a table, a chair and my homelab (a bunch of rPIs, some network equipment, a few servers).

All the electronics keep the room relatively warm, so most of the heating is actually turned off in that room :)

Heat the space immediately around you. Don't bother with central heating. Get a small electric blanket that you can have on your lap.

If you are feeling more adventurous I got through a cold winter where the heating broke when I was a student with a mix of warm clothing, blankets, and doing exercises to keep warm. When you start getting cold, do some press-ups/squats etc.

If you are feeling really adventurous I would recommend going outside wearing less clothes than you want to, just trousers and a shirt/jumper. When you get really cold head back in and it will seem positively warm! Another way of doing this is cold showers.

I'd say heat the person, not the space. Following on from the Electric Blanket mention, I'd recommend a heated vest. I have one made by Arris [1], and it has a 7.4V battery. Following a tip in an Amazon review, I contacted their customer services and got a voucher for a second battery at half price.

Last winter, I used it a lot when WFH to avoid the temptation of using the boost on the central heating. With two batteries, one can be charging while the other is in use. According to my meter plug it was economical to charge.

I found it worked best with a thin base layer underneath the heated vest, and a good fleece over it. There are several heating areas on the front and back, and I found that the battery lasted best by starting at the highest heat setting and then stepping down through the levels as I warmed up. Very useful when sitting still long periods at your computer. And of course the advantage over a blanket or electric fan is that you can walk around with it on.

[1] https://www.arrislife.com/products/arris-heated-vest-size-ad...

> I'd say heat the person, not the space.

I agree, but OP seemed a bit reluctant to try that so I suggested the next best thing.

Thanks for the heated vest suggestion.

My office is in a cool (64F) basement. Something I've found works to warm me up is to do a bunch of squats and pushups when I'm cold. If you're able to, perhaps try doing 10 squats then 5 pushups on repeat 3-5 times until you're warm/hot.

I find the warmth lasts about an hour and has the side effect of also warming my office a degree or so.

>Hope that electric heating will still be legal.

Air source heat pump (split AC unit) is the way to go. Those things have efficiencies of 200-600%.

I am renting my apartment in Switzerland, where split AC installations are prohibitively expensive ($3000 or more for a single unit) and usually forbidden by landlords.
At this point finding a unit and someone to install it might not happen until 2024 in some places.
You can get heated office chair covers, think like a car's heated seats but for office chairs. They pull about 30W and made a big difference when I lived through Illinois winters.
20c is incredibly warm. As a broke college kid living on the east coast we kept the furnace at 55F (13C) all winter. Wear a jacket. Double socks. Drink warm beverages. Get up and do some push-ups. If you’re reasonably young and healthy, you’ll survive.
Note for anybody reading: don’t actually do this if possible, it’s bad for cardiovascular health [1].

1. https://ehjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12940-...

Finally some evidence about indoor cold. I'm nearly getting slaughtered by my entire extended family since literally everyone in Lithuania believes every respiratory (and some kidney and bladder) diseases are caused by:

* Not wearing socks and slippers indoor

* Having draft indoors, even when it's +30C outside

* Going outside after shower with wet hair

* Air conditioner

Problem with 13C in many European houses is that will get mold at 13C. The insulation prevents any ventilation.
>If you’re reasonably young and healthy, you’ll survive.

I'm not. The lower limit of my comfort zone is 19c, anything colder and I can't work.

I have a hard time typing when I'm cold. Putting on jackets doesn't seem to help, unfortunately. I can't imagine trying to work in a 55° room all winter.
(Heated) fingerless gloves?
I previously worked with a developer who told me of an employer he had while working in Russia who would turn off the heating. He told them to type faster for warmth. Not sure the gloves would help much.
> Get up and do some push-ups

I’m just gonna ask now because I’ve seen it so often. Is this an idiom or is there some kind of expectation people can do push ups? Personally I can do a bunch of pull ups but I don’t think I’ve ever done a single proper push up. Judging from obesity stats I’d expect like half the populace to not be able to do either.

most folks can do a leaning pushup, where you lean against a counter, table or wall and push yourself up. with practice you can progress to lower objects and eventually a full push up.
You must have pullups and pushups backwards. I'd bet most people can do 0 pullups but can do pushups.
Some extra things I do.

My combined water boiler is set to turn on/off on schedule. When running off electricity it only heats water during the night.

Some other appliances are also set to work on schedule. Washing machine, dish washer etc... usually run overnight.

All computers are set to sleep after 10 min of inactivity. The only things that are on 24/7 are APs, a few cameras and a NAS.

I also have a garden. I grow/pickle my own tomatoes, cucumbers, pumpkins, apples, prunes, mushrooms, nuts, berries. But not potatoes, since those are cheap to buy.

I think in total, it would be enough to last for 3-4 months.

You still had non-LED bulbs? We moved almost exclusively to them over 8 years ago in India.
I started by nailing up my windows and adding two layers of bubble wrap to the wall. Every family members has 7 liters water per day (drinking included). Eating will be done mostly cold. /s
It may be a wise time to discuss consolidating households with family/neighbors so you need to heat fewer structures, you can spread the cost, and you can pool resources. If it’s not necessary, great, but if it’s bad enough you have a plan.
If you do this, make sure to drain the taps so that they don't freeze and burst.
Make plans to take a 2-3 month vacation to the southern hemisphere.
There is no any crisis if u don't read the news.
Are people actually going to freeze?

My understanding so far is that industry will freeze (as needed) so that all the reserves can be used for people. I get a feeling that this crisis is becoming more media-gorging-on-crisis-clicks than it is an objective analysis.

Industry doesn't freeze as needed. It freezes indefinitely. Once something is out of business it's out of business and will either be outsourced or bought up by bigger fish.

When industry dies the social safety net dies, it will happen when the Euro looses its value, in which case money printing will no longer be possible without hyperinflation. And a devalued Euro is only useful if there is still an industry left to export things.

Once that happens people will actually freeze.

A lot of people still don't grasp that de-industrialization is already happening. In Europe, major metal smelters, chemical manufactures, etc are already off line or shutting down soon. And the way factories work, you can just shut them down and fire them back up at a later date - they need to run continuously. Additionally, these are not only large employers, but greatly contribute to the tax revenue which support the generous welfare states. It's not looking pretty.

https://www.ft.com/content/46d3c3fb-e79a-464c-afe1-7079d3e4f...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-17/energy-cr...

France has a plan and that plan has multiple steps and phases and the last one involves some electricity blackouts for citizens but it's the very last step. So far.

France has the capability to selectively cut off some neighborhood from the grid and they plan to do 2 hours rotations if need arises.

I don't know if they are going so far as moving people out of their house to gather them in a larger building that is easier to heat.

Quite frankly, I don't expect to hear about the real plans before mid-october.

If we have a mild winter, rolling blackouts won't be necessary.

I know the government reached some industrials which were usually left off energy offset plans (basically processing factories), so this might be serious, but honestly, people heating with electricity should be fine.

Never understood rationing. If electricity is cut off for 2 hours won't residents use double the electricity in the following 2 hours after supply is restored? For example I won't run the wash during the cut off time but I will most definitely do after it's reconnected.
If it were a once-off incident like that, perhaps, but if everyone knew they'd only get, say, 8 hours electricity a day over several weeks, I don't doubt they'd use less than having it available 24 hours a day.
I think the reason is also to optimize load on the grid to prevent losses.
Realistically, some people might freeze. Especially older people. Every year, there elderly folk die from not being able to afford to heat their homes. This year, it'll be worse for them. It's very likely the number of old people dying due to not being able to afford heating will skyrocket.

Slovakian ministers are talking about people having to go into the woods secretly to cut down wood to set on fire. There are countries where they are fully expecting people who work for a living not being able to afford to heat their homes.

People are going to die over this.

Some people are absolutely going to die, but then we are talking very large numbers and most policy produces casualties of some sort.

You are most likely talking older and poorer people. Some will maybe get sick due to insufficient money to heat, some will die from monoxide poisoning from using unfamiliar and improper stoves.

Everything in the media is a load of "WE'LL ALL DIE TOMORROW" bullshit these days.

Just to get people's attention.

Shit will be fine.

> Shit will be fine.

For highly payed ivory tower folks, yes. For everyone else, it's going to be difficult. Energy is everything in modern society.

I'm near the bottom of the wage list and even if energy costs triple, I'll do fine.

Not sure what others are doing.

Depends on what you mean by "fine", too.

Are you in Europe? Some predictions are that the average family will have to spend upwards of 30% on energy there.
Right, and that would be an extra ~100 Euros/month on utilities for me. Say it's about as much for fuel if you have to drive every day. Luckily I can get to work using my feet. Not great, not terrible.
At this point maybe nobody knows this for sure. IF industry is going to have an energy-problem, then everybody else WILL have a financial problem (and many become poor - we heave just now 9% inflation and industry is running fine, what will happen if it isn’t running anymore). And IF gas for private heating will be scarce, then everybody WILL have a problem with electricity (since many will heat with electric and kill our grid). It’s not for sure but MAYBE we have a problem. So maybe it’s a good idea to have a plan B to warm some canned food up. Or how we say in Germany: Besser man hat als man hätte.
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Not sure that sounds much better? No production, no money, no jobs.
> Are people actually going to freeze?

Yes.

An average of 9,700 deaths each year are believed to be caused by living in a cold house, according to research by National Energy Action (NEA) (UK).

Why do you think that with less heating, or the same heating cost 4x the amount, the situation would be better?

> Are people actually going to freeze?

If I had to guess, I'd say much more than usual, but not a calamitous amount like millions or anything. Every winter, elderly who can't take good care of themselves succumb to cold or illness. For one winter, I'd say that most average people will be able to survive, albeit uncomfortably doing things like burning through their remaining savings or getting deeper into debt, huddling in bed together or wearing thick layers indoors, and finding trees to chop down for wood if desperate.

This prediction is just for 1 winter. If this situation lasts until the next winter, people/governments will be even more screwed financially by then and the outcome will likely be calamitous then.

> My understanding so far is that industry will freeze (as needed) so that all the reserves can be used for people.

Real economies aren't video games that have a pause button. We learned during Covid that shutdowns that are labeled as temporary are not so. Supply chains get ruined: machines and spare parts and needed chemicals get harder and harder to find. Businesses can't afford to pay rent and wages for months with no income and have to shut down. Truly skilled employees with real domain knowledge use the shutdown to retire early or change careers and their knowledge of processes is lost. Etc.

And this isn't a normal time where the governments of the world can really go further and extend themselves to really help and minimize the impact: they blew themselves out financially overreacting to Covid and are insisting on blowing out whatever remaining financial resources they might have to endlessly signal their virtue against Putin.

Realistically? Just steel myself to pay more for heating the house and everything else.
I have a fireplace at home. Perhaps I might want to go seek some wood for it. Everything will be fine though, unless there are widespread blackouts, which I doubt (Switzerland’s electric energy balance is sane enough).
Most of the heat from a fireplace goes right up the chimney. I don't know what your options are in Switzerland, but a wood stove or a fireplace insert might be worth looking at. If you have a supply of wood, of course.
It highly depends on the energy mix of your country, but some countries may actually be in for a difficult winter.

You can store energy of course and even hoard it which increases the problem. Here in Poland first there were 2 week lines for coal and now there is none. Pellet has gone up in price 3x. Electric price has gone up 2-3x. Gas supply is in question. The government has said to burn anything for heat you can get your hands on which means low quality coal, peat and trash. Even if I have energy, my lungs would pay the price.

Some people are running the numbers and realizing that they can temporarily move to a warm country for the price of their heating and electric bills.

Same as you really. Turned off an extra fridge we could live without. May turn off some other devices over night, but as they're all energy saving they probably won't make much difference.

I did get a massively reduced bill last month though. The only thing I can really ascribe that to is only filling the kettle with minimal water, and getting my son to turn his gaming pc off when he's not using it!

> and getting my son to turn his gaming pc off

Can set a "Hibernate if idle after X minutes" instead.

I have been seeing this meme about the kettle recently. I ran the numbers and you are talking a few cents per boil even at current energy prices. You’d have to be drinking truly epic amounts of tea to see it affect your electric bill.
> You’d have to be drinking truly epic amounts of tea to see it affect your electric bill.

That was based on comments from the outgoing UK PM. I don't drink the stuff myself, but “epic amounts of tea” is not an unusual concept amongst many of my friends over here.

I do drink epic amounts of tea!

But I'm sure it really isn't responsible for the vast majority of my energy usage. Its the only real change I made though over the last month, so not sure why my usage has dropped...

> May turn off some other devices over night, but as they're all energy saving they probably won't make much difference.

I've seen some iffy advice for adding smart plugs to everything (in at least one case in an article sponsored by a smart device manufacturer, go figure, though that fact was not exactly clear in the headline or main text). It is one of those things where the maths often doesn't work out: will that media player or microwave on standby really consume significantly more power than the smart-plug with built-in wireless (and the alexa/google/other hub to control it if needed)? And would it not be just as easy to flick the switch yourself given you won't need to use it remotely?

I am adding smart plugs to some things, but for convenience (that “being to lazy to physically go to the switch and press it” factor) more than power saving.

For those of you that are location independent, where are you moving for the winter?
I no longer live in the EU, but one of the habits that I've taken with me is canning. Pickles, tomatoes, green beans, etc. It just requires salt, vinegar, the veggies, and some jars (and space, obviously). Solid addition to any meal.

More on this, I grew potatoes recently in my garden and stocked them in my garage. A tote of potatoes can last a couple people for months. It requires potatoes, some sand and a cool, dark place to keep it all.

I already use as little as possible, so I don't prepare.

I do want a solar installation for myself though.

I bought an electric blanket so I can warm myself in a cheaper way at least part of the time.
This is a good idea. Also you can do things like use a radiative electric heat dish and point it at a high backed chair to create a little heat bubble in a room and not heat the whole room.
Beyond your personal life space preparations -- build out your literal social network.

Who do you know who is old and frail and might need looking in on? Who do you know who has very young children? Who do you know who is good at cooking? Who might need food? Who can coordinate getting it to them? Who do you know who has a big enough house to host a warm potluck meal over the winter every week or so? Do you have enough people to rotate houses?

Look for what in the US is sometimes called a mutual aid group. If you don't have one: pick two friends, make one.

My country (Netherlands) has 80% of it's gas supplies ready to go if I can trust the news. I have just moved into a poorly insulated house but I'm not too worried. We can always move into our caravan which we can heat on 600W if really necessary but you know, perhaps some thermo underwear? I already always had the temp at 19 deg C so 17-18 should be ok with a blanket on the couch? In bed I don't mind 10 deg C.

So far, until December gas has gone up for me about 2x (now 1.67 eur/m3 or so? Whereas electricity is at 0.48/kWh, so up about 2.4 fold compared to 2 years ago), meaning about 300 eur/month for gas, ~150 for electricity which is not a real problem for us... yet... I guess for January 2023 the price may go up much higher...

There is some hope for gas prices, as other countries are steeping in to replace russias' (hopefully permanently)
The Netherlands is sitting on a big gas field [0], but we were in the process of winding down production because of houses getting damaged in the area. A time will come when production will be ramped up again I think, perhaps when it has become economic to just compensate all damages.

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groningen_gas_field

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If you plan to use electric heater, switch to AC - regular heater or whatever have efficiency of mere 100%, while AC is a heat pump and can transfer heat at 200-500+% efficiency
Could you elaborate a little on this?

I have a free-standing air-conditioner that I got because temperatures hit records this year, are you saying I should put the cold side of it outside and pipe the tube into my home?

Split A/C units (like ceiling mounted ones) are uncommon in most of Northern Europe residential buildings..

Unfortunately those free standing units create a pressure differential and you will see all your hot air pushed outside. The split units use a fluid line to the outside to exchange temperature, so you would need one of those.
They are awesome and in Germany you can get up to 45% installation cost help
This is quite good advice. The trick that that the portable AC units most people have in EU require an open window for the vent tube and create a positive or negative pressure which can push all your savings right out the window. If you have a split wall unit with a heat exchanger outside then you are in good shape.
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just booked my tickets for Turkey, will stay there for couple of months
In the process of installing roof solar (which I would've done this or next year even if the energy prices didn't spike).

Also, expect to allocate larger budget for gas & electricity bill. I do expect the govt. to cushion the blow for consumers tho, so I'd be surprised if my bill ended up 600% up, but it won't break the bank.

I'm not that worried. My flat is heated by a gas heater, that is supplied by a tank somewhere outside. That thing only has to be filled up occasionally (idk how often, maybe once a year or so?), so i'm usually just paying for the price the landlady paid for it. Also, my flat is properly insulated and loses very little heat.

Power might be a bit of a problem. I don't think it's going to go out, of course, because my little corner of Germany is connected to a bunch of hydro and solar power plants and there is the nuclear power plant "Isar" only a 100 km from here, which probably will be running if things go bad. But it's the price i'm worried about. There is some legislation coming up, that may help with that, though.