I had to edit the title quite a lot to get it to fit the HN limits. Sorry. I'm not great at doing that, so if you think there's a better title email HN and get them to change it. The full title is "Suicide numbers during the first 9-15 months of the COVID-19 pandemic compared with pre-existing trends: An interrupted time series analysis in 33 countries".
On HN there's a reasonably frequent assertion: measures taken to control pandemic, especially lockdown, caused an increase in death by suicide.
There's considerable lag in suicide statistics (mostly because of the way suicide is defined and the way the data is collected), but early research didn't show a rise in most places, and that remained true even when they used a quicker and looser definition of suicide. (Suicide is usually defined as a death following self injury where the intent is to die. A looser definition might be death after self injury where the intent is not known.)
The submitted article is a pretty comprehensive look at suicide data from a large number of countries. The findings and interpretation are clear.
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Findings
We sourced data from 33 countries (24 high-income, six upper-middle-income, three lower-middle-income; 25 with whole-country data, 12 with data for area(s)-within-the-country, four with both). There was no evidence of greater-than-expected numbers of suicides in the majority of countries/areas-within-countries in any analysis; more commonly, there was evidence of lower-than-expected numbers. Certain sex, age and sex-by-age groups stood out as potentially concerning, but these were not consistent across countries/areas-within-countries. In the meta-regression, different patterns were not explained by countries’ COVID-19 mortality rate, stringency of public health response, economic support level, or presence of a national suicide prevention strategy. Nor were they explained by countries’ income level, although the meta-regression only included data from high-income and upper-middle-income countries, and there were suggestions from the ITS analyses that lower-middle-income countries fared less well.
Interpretation
Although there are some countries/areas-within-countries where overall suicide numbers and numbers for certain sex- and age-based groups are greater-than-expected, these countries/areas-within-countries are in the minority. Any upward movement in suicide numbers in any place or group is concerning, and we need to remain alert to and respond to changes as the pandemic and its mental health and economic consequences continue.
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[ 0.16 ms ] story [ 16.1 ms ] threadOn HN there's a reasonably frequent assertion: measures taken to control pandemic, especially lockdown, caused an increase in death by suicide.
There's considerable lag in suicide statistics (mostly because of the way suicide is defined and the way the data is collected), but early research didn't show a rise in most places, and that remained true even when they used a quicker and looser definition of suicide. (Suicide is usually defined as a death following self injury where the intent is to die. A looser definition might be death after self injury where the intent is not known.)
The submitted article is a pretty comprehensive look at suicide data from a large number of countries. The findings and interpretation are clear.
--- Findings
We sourced data from 33 countries (24 high-income, six upper-middle-income, three lower-middle-income; 25 with whole-country data, 12 with data for area(s)-within-the-country, four with both). There was no evidence of greater-than-expected numbers of suicides in the majority of countries/areas-within-countries in any analysis; more commonly, there was evidence of lower-than-expected numbers. Certain sex, age and sex-by-age groups stood out as potentially concerning, but these were not consistent across countries/areas-within-countries. In the meta-regression, different patterns were not explained by countries’ COVID-19 mortality rate, stringency of public health response, economic support level, or presence of a national suicide prevention strategy. Nor were they explained by countries’ income level, although the meta-regression only included data from high-income and upper-middle-income countries, and there were suggestions from the ITS analyses that lower-middle-income countries fared less well.
Interpretation
Although there are some countries/areas-within-countries where overall suicide numbers and numbers for certain sex- and age-based groups are greater-than-expected, these countries/areas-within-countries are in the minority. Any upward movement in suicide numbers in any place or group is concerning, and we need to remain alert to and respond to changes as the pandemic and its mental health and economic consequences continue.