Doesn’t polling rely on people honestly answering their questions? They have to account for apathy and deceit and I assume they have models for this. But using myself as an example, I just don’t participate in anything more than business surveys.
The takeaway is to assume that “your” person or project needs all the help it can get and participate to support it. Get people you know to participate. Fight apathy as increased participation moves results away from the edges.
They show a general bias toward democrats in the article. However, if you look at 2011 and earlier, it does seem balanced. Only since 2011 is there a problem.
>But what if the problem is that Republican voters are the type of people that don’t talk to pollsters? And the few Republicans that do talk to them are unrepresentative of the party itself? If this were the case, then there would be no clear fix
I think it's less this problem, a few paragraphs later they self-refute this point. Polling was relatively reliable before 2009. It's something new, and it's obvious what it is. Republicans vote in their secret ballot differently than they admit to pollsters. Why can they not publicly admit their opinion anymore? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qaHLd8de6nM Obama is smart.
What I believe happened is social sciences fell on its face. It's unclear to me if STEM excluding social sciences left the field with lesser talent or if the revelations that caused social sciences to collapse bore out STEM. Ultimately this is what spawned jordan peterson. In most cases what he says is just what the social sciences say. The problem is what he says is a tough medicine to take. The democrats would rather stop him from speaking than confront what social sciences say.
Cancel culture has killed polling. Who in their right minds are going to reveal a policanceled. To some random person on the phone that can get them cancelled.
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[ 1.8 ms ] story [ 21.4 ms ] threadThe takeaway is to assume that “your” person or project needs all the help it can get and participate to support it. Get people you know to participate. Fight apathy as increased participation moves results away from the edges.
This aligns with the democrat shift in political polarization. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-polarization-of-politic...
>But what if the problem is that Republican voters are the type of people that don’t talk to pollsters? And the few Republicans that do talk to them are unrepresentative of the party itself? If this were the case, then there would be no clear fix
I think it's less this problem, a few paragraphs later they self-refute this point. Polling was relatively reliable before 2009. It's something new, and it's obvious what it is. Republicans vote in their secret ballot differently than they admit to pollsters. Why can they not publicly admit their opinion anymore? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qaHLd8de6nM Obama is smart.
What I believe happened is social sciences fell on its face. It's unclear to me if STEM excluding social sciences left the field with lesser talent or if the revelations that caused social sciences to collapse bore out STEM. Ultimately this is what spawned jordan peterson. In most cases what he says is just what the social sciences say. The problem is what he says is a tough medicine to take. The democrats would rather stop him from speaking than confront what social sciences say.