That being said, I'm not sure how relevant terminal velocity is for anything but the smallest/slowest ends of the parameters of this app. For an asteroid going 38,000 mph (default speed on linked page), drag just doesn't play a big part - the asteroid passes through the atmosphere in ~5 seconds, not enough time for it to slow down significantly.
I tried it just for fun yesterday: transforming Git commit message whose subject are too long and that are not in the imperative tense into short title using the imperative tense.
You can use it online to shorten the names of top secret projects, but then they are no longer secret, and you will lose your job if/when your org works with OpenAI, which they should be.
Until it’s offline, sadly, I can’t even use it for company work.
Okay Google, tell Alexa to ask ChatGPT to apologize on my behalf running out of DALL-E credits to generate a meme reaction image to post on what's left of Twitter and Reddit.
The future isn't going to end well: there will be a bazillion bots catfishing and manipulating humans into doing who-knows-what possibly on the scales of the Pizzagate conspiracy theory, SWATing, sexting exploitation, and let-your-imagination-run-wild. Maybe people will catch on, decide to opt out of social media, and go fishing for actual catfish (the things can be damn heavy).
Very cool. After trying numerous combinations of composition, velocity, and diameter... my takeaway is that most asteroids 70 feet or bigger would do substantial damage at 1 Hacker Way, Menlo Park, CA.
There's so much cheap GPU compute used for mining shitcoins and training glorified Markov chains on Reddit dumps, surely someone could spare a few racks to run some CFD on a detailed GIS model of our planet, to create lookup tables that would allow everyone to cheaply simulate all kinds of fun events, such as nuclear detonations, asteroid impacts, "rods of god", relativistic kill vehicles, supervolcano eruptions, etc. anywhere on the planet, at the push of a button.
The social value of this would be immense - even if you and me never used those precomputed LUTs for anything, they would surely help Randall Munroe or Kurzgesagt or others answer even more high-energy "what-if" questions with even greater accuracy!
>surely someone could spare a few racks to run some CFD on a detailed GIS model of our planet, to create lookup tables that would allow everyone to cheaply simulate all kinds of fun events, such as nuclear detonations, asteroid impacts, "rods of god", relativistic kill vehicles, supervolcano eruptions, etc. anywhere on the planet, at the push of a button.
I don't think visibility would be all that hard to compute for the purposes of this site; I did similar calculations for radio "visibility" once (four thirds earth radius etc.):
- Choose a grid of square cells of appropriate size (can be quite large here)
- Put it on a plane tangential to an idealized flat earth ground at the center (easy in ECEF)
- Offset by the desired height
- Perform a "raycast" from the center cell to the center of each other cell
- Calculate elevation from interpolated SRTM data along the way and store the maximum elevation* along the path (idea: something similar to DDA traversal through the SRTM data? Wouldn't be exactly linear, though…)
- You can pretty much derive anything via linear algebra from there
* "Elevation" from the viewpoint of the chosen plane, obviously.
Visibility is not hard to compute. I said you could use "viewshed", which is the usual method of calculating line of sight to a given point from all points in an area. But it is a computationally intensive task to take a large enough area to accommodate any arbitrary asteroid impact. Orders of magnitude more than a web response, even accounting for down sampling and heuristics to restrict the size of the compute area.
Almost any GIS software package can do it for you.
That's likely where our different assesments come from, then. I was thinking more along the lines of "it's parallalelizable and easily offloaded to the client".
An addendum for completeness' sake, though :)
> What you're suggesting is that
Not entirely. I'd build a LUT of "how high up must you be to be visible here" per "pixel", instead of "is the ground here visible", which I'd argue is more useful for modelling here.
> except you didn't account for curvature of earth
I didn't spell it out explicitly, but that's not the case if you do your projections right. (And you have to project, as SRTM data is always relative to the EGM96 geoid.)
Definitely more colorful than Nukemap. Would love to see something other than a simple circle for the various radii- surely the impact angle and local geography would shape the blast, no?
(I realize that is a very hard problem to accurately model.)
> I was seeing how big/fast an asteroid that hits New York would have to be to hurt me in Boston. Turns out it would have to be larger than I thought.
Did the same on my area with that infamous nuclear bomb simulator/map. Some of the historical warheads seem surprisingly weak relative to modern city sizes. That said, in both nuclear and asteroid impact scenarios, do consider that, while you may be out of range of the thermal and pressure waves, you might still be in range of "extreme disruption caused by survivors closer to the blast moving outwards, emergency services moving inwards, and the economy and social order going to shitters as the country deals with what happened" wave.
I think this needs to be optimized for impacts that hit water and the effects that would have, because right now it doesn't do that so it feels a bit generic.
I'm sure you know this, but just to point out, we're no more "overdue" for a supervolcano because it's been longer than average since an eruption than a gambler is "due" to win because they've pulled the arm on their slot machine enough times. (Though iirc some volcanoes are periodic. But unless I'm quite mistaken, supervolcanoes aren't periodic globally.)
I don't feel qualified to say there is no "memory", if I make claims any stronger than I've made already I'll be out of my depth, but see the information below for instance:
> Most volcanic systems that have a supereruption do not have them multiple times. When supereruptions do occur more than once in a volcanic system, they are not evenly spaced in time.
I think these are just very complex systems with many different factors, like the kind of rock they're under, what's going on with the continental plate at that time, etc. We don't have a good understanding of what's happening in the mantle, which is especially relevant for hotspot volcanoes like Yellowstone that are fed from the mantle (note that this is not how all supervolcanoes work).
Allow me to leave you with an awesome animation of the formation of a very different supervolcano: https://youtu.be/sx3_WJHAERc
There’s currently controversial archaeological evidence for a younger dryas (12,900 years ago) meteorite impact which caused mass global cooling, though thats one of several theories.
There’s also speculation and some small amount of material evidence that a meteorite airburst the middle east/levant[1] maybe leading to myths of cataclysm like Sodom.
The 1908 blast at Tunguska in Siberia is now widely regarded as a result of a cosmic airbust.
There seems to be a growing body of evidence that large, city-destroying asteroids are actually quite frequent in geological terms. The odds of hitting an actual city are low, but I don’t like those odds
That means that size would happen on land about once every 100,000 years, and about 1/3 of those wouod land in a desert (mainly Antarctic, Arctic tundra, or Sahara)
Came here to ask the same question :) I picked the impact location to be some ocean spot and it didn't kill anyone, I am not sure if that's optimistic.
It's truly amazing how much stuff you can just dump safely in the middle of Lake Michigan. Of course... there's no calculation of the Seiche it would induce.
I've always had a weird fear whenever I was in Duluth that Lake Superior would get hit by an Asteroid. The lake itself seemed like a much bigger and more likely target.
A couple people have commented as much, but I wish this took water into account.
I feel like I read somewhere that the K-T boundary asteroid is thought to have been more destructive due to hitting relatively near land than if it had been in the deepest ocean. I don't know how that would compare to hitting land.
It wasn't so much that it hit near land as it was the type of land it hit- lots of gypsum, which meant a lot of sulfates injected into the biosphere at once, enough to acidify the oceans to the point of food chain collapse. It really hit in just the 'right' spot in terms of maximizing damage.
Too bad not everyone thinks in terms of miles, feet nor furlongs. I suggest you add an option for a metric system in your spare time. Otherwise great illustrative site!
Is it just the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon ("a cognitive bias in which, after noticing something for the first time, there is a tendency to notice it more often") or do asteroid impact related things always go for Manhattan? I open this map and, bam, there's a map zoomed right onto Manhattan and a "select impact location" prompt.
Why is that cities in the northern hemisphere are always the ones destroyed in fiction? There's cities in the southern hemisphere too: destroy some of them!
Actually, I want to call out "The Expanse" for this (warning: spoilers): in the episode where one of Mars' interplanetary nuclear missiles gets through Earth's defenses, it strikes South America. But this is the only time I can think of this happening in disaster fiction; usually the entire existence of the southern hemisphere is ignored.
Edward Teller, the inventor of the hydrogen bomb and longtime head of Los Alamos National Laboratory, believed it was possible and even a good idea to place 1 gigaton yield warheads on orbital platforms for asteroid defense.
It might seem outlandish to us, but then again, so would a hydrogen bomb.
He's not entirely wrong. If we had a good way of getting a warhead to an incoming asteroid, it'd be a great safety mechanism. Unfortunately, today, there is no one trustworthy to put that sort of weaponry into somewhere that would allow it to strike any location on earth with less than a few minutes warning. Especially since something of that yield would devastate a large portion of earth.
Imagine you we’re an insane billionaire with the ability to launch objects into say a lunar distance orbit. It wouldn’t require a lot of cold gas to drop some rods onto any spot on earth, and it would be undetectable until the explosion happens.
As space becomes easier to access the risk increases exponentially.
It would require quite a lot of it because you need to significantly change the orbit, especially if you want it to still be plenty fast on impact.
And it doesn't make much sense either. A billionaire can just pay a few millions to send a guy in a car bomb or a cessna full of explosives. It's way simpler and just as undetectable until the explosion happens.
A powerful nuke could certainly alter an asteroid's trajectory. However, most of the energy would be wasted. It'd be better to use a nuclear propulsion reactor strapped to the side of the asteroid to direct it more accurately, but we don't have that technology today, whereas we do know how to make big bombs.
Also, the idea of changing an asteroid's trajectory just before it hits the Earth is crazy. You need much more warning, because even a big bomb isn't going to move the asteroid that much, so you need to use it long before it's projected to collide.
Nuclear weapons which are optimized for wide surface area destruction or bunker busting are not very effective. Nuclear bombs like any bomb can be tuned to produce a variety of effects. See Nuclear shaped charges https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_shaped_charge
I'm confused. A 100 ft asteroid that explodes 2.2 miles in the air seems to result in far more deaths from a 0.6 mile wide fireball compared to a 200ft asteroid that would hit the ground in the same location (Fort Lauderdale, FL).
I knew this was true for nuclear weapons. It was just surprising that a smaller asteroid could be that much more dangerous than a larger one due to potentially exploding in the atmosphere.
Digging a giant crater localizes the destruction and consumes most of the energy An air burst doesn't bother digging a giant crater and has a larger fraction of it's energy dumped into the atmosphere for fireballs, high winds, and direct radiation.
I thought asteroids didn't normally produce any direct radiation; their explosions are purely from being superheated by the atmospheric friction. (Obviously, nuclear airbursts do produce a lot of radiation.)
Well potential energy is turned into kinetic energy, which heats up the asteroid. Any water, or gas inside could well result in an explosion.
Things like turning night into day release a fair bit of radiation, like light.
The Tunguska event is thought to be an airburst, that flattened many trees (80M or so), made an incredibly loud explosion, and it's claimed it was nearly as bright as the sun.
That's not radiation though. When people talk about "radiation", they don't mean light, they mean ionizing radiation, not everything across the entire EM spectrum.
Remember that "radiation" simply refers to any effect that radiates outward from an initial point or source, say, a radiator. Yes, common parlance has abbreviated "ionizing nuclear radiation" as "radiation", but that's only one of numerous types of radiant energy.
143 comments
[ 3.3 ms ] story [ 217 ms ] threadhttp://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/airfri2.html
That being said, I'm not sure how relevant terminal velocity is for anything but the smallest/slowest ends of the parameters of this app. For an asteroid going 38,000 mph (default speed on linked page), drag just doesn't play a big part - the asteroid passes through the atmosphere in ~5 seconds, not enough time for it to slow down significantly.
Rewrite the following twitter message as a hackernews title. It should be as successfull as possible and attract many readers
Original Tweet: New page! Make your own asteroid and launch it at Earth to see the effects.
For this kind of thing it mostly works.
Until it’s offline, sadly, I can’t even use it for company work.
https://github.com/RomanHotsiy/commitgpt
Well and if that mindset is coded (subconsciously) into the AI, it will happen as a self fullfilling prophecy.
But as of right now - the machines absolutely would need us. There is no machine capable of self replicating anywhere close in sight.
https://openai.com/blog/chatgpt/
https://chat.openai.com/chat
> "Discover the Ultimate Asteroid Simulator: Create and Launch Your Own Asteroids at Earth and Observe the Results"
> "Create and launch your own asteroid on Earth to see the impact - new interactive page now available"
> "Create and launch your own asteroid with our new interactive tool"
> "Create and Launch Your Own Asteroid to See Its Impact on Earth - A Must-Try Simulation for Space Enthusiasts!"
Sigh. What am I doing wrong?
This isn't the first time I've struggled to reproduce HN CGPT results.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33869423
The future isn't going to end well: there will be a bazillion bots catfishing and manipulating humans into doing who-knows-what possibly on the scales of the Pizzagate conspiracy theory, SWATing, sexting exploitation, and let-your-imagination-run-wild. Maybe people will catch on, decide to opt out of social media, and go fishing for actual catfish (the things can be damn heavy).
But it's computationally extremely difficult, as you say.
There's so much cheap GPU compute used for mining shitcoins and training glorified Markov chains on Reddit dumps, surely someone could spare a few racks to run some CFD on a detailed GIS model of our planet, to create lookup tables that would allow everyone to cheaply simulate all kinds of fun events, such as nuclear detonations, asteroid impacts, "rods of god", relativistic kill vehicles, supervolcano eruptions, etc. anywhere on the planet, at the push of a button.
The social value of this would be immense - even if you and me never used those precomputed LUTs for anything, they would surely help Randall Munroe or Kurzgesagt or others answer even more high-energy "what-if" questions with even greater accuracy!
Nobody ever did a sequel to
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SimEarth
?
Almost any GIS software package can do it for you.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viewshed
What you're suggesting is that, except you didn't account for curvature of earth.
That's likely where our different assesments come from, then. I was thinking more along the lines of "it's parallalelizable and easily offloaded to the client".
An addendum for completeness' sake, though :)
> What you're suggesting is that
Not entirely. I'd build a LUT of "how high up must you be to be visible here" per "pixel", instead of "is the ground here visible", which I'd argue is more useful for modelling here.
> except you didn't account for curvature of earth
I didn't spell it out explicitly, but that's not the case if you do your projections right. (And you have to project, as SRTM data is always relative to the EGM96 geoid.)
(I realize that is a very hard problem to accurately model.)
I was seeing how big/fast an asteroid that hits New York would have to be to hurt me in Boston. Turns out it would have to be larger than I thought.
Would be nice to be able to click a place on the map and see how survivable that location is.
Did the same on my area with that infamous nuclear bomb simulator/map. Some of the historical warheads seem surprisingly weak relative to modern city sizes. That said, in both nuclear and asteroid impact scenarios, do consider that, while you may be out of range of the thermal and pressure waves, you might still be in range of "extreme disruption caused by survivors closer to the blast moving outwards, emergency services moving inwards, and the economy and social order going to shitters as the country deals with what happened" wave.
https://archive.org/details/threads_202007
A comet on default settings. T-that can't be right, r-right?
> Most volcanic systems that have a supereruption do not have them multiple times. When supereruptions do occur more than once in a volcanic system, they are not evenly spaced in time.
https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/yellowstone-overdue-eruption-when-...
I think these are just very complex systems with many different factors, like the kind of rock they're under, what's going on with the continental plate at that time, etc. We don't have a good understanding of what's happening in the mantle, which is especially relevant for hotspot volcanoes like Yellowstone that are fed from the mantle (note that this is not how all supervolcanoes work).
Allow me to leave you with an awesome animation of the formation of a very different supervolcano: https://youtu.be/sx3_WJHAERc
There’s also speculation and some small amount of material evidence that a meteorite airburst the middle east/levant[1] maybe leading to myths of cataclysm like Sodom.
The 1908 blast at Tunguska in Siberia is now widely regarded as a result of a cosmic airbust.
There seems to be a growing body of evidence that large, city-destroying asteroids are actually quite frequent in geological terms. The odds of hitting an actual city are low, but I don’t like those odds
[1] https://www.livescience.com/64179-ancient-cosmic-airburst-mi...
Some believe this has already happened.
https://www.greatlakesnow.org/2019/12/great-lakes-meteorites...
A couple people have commented as much, but I wish this took water into account.
The kids have enough lingering anxiety from the pandemic I think
Actually, I want to call out "The Expanse" for this (warning: spoilers): in the episode where one of Mars' interplanetary nuclear missiles gets through Earth's defenses, it strikes South America. But this is the only time I can think of this happening in disaster fiction; usually the entire existence of the southern hemisphere is ignored.
It might seem outlandish to us, but then again, so would a hydrogen bomb.
Though lets be honest, anything in orbit is dangerous. A crowbar (aka Rods from God aka https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_bombardment ) is even smaller and just as dangerous.
As space becomes easier to access the risk increases exponentially.
And it doesn't make much sense either. A billionaire can just pay a few millions to send a guy in a car bomb or a cessna full of explosives. It's way simpler and just as undetectable until the explosion happens.
Also, the idea of changing an asteroid's trajectory just before it hits the Earth is crazy. You need much more warning, because even a big bomb isn't going to move the asteroid that much, so you need to use it long before it's projected to collide.
100ft = 211,172 deaths
Is this correct? https://imgur.com/a/Elst6Q3
Things like turning night into day release a fair bit of radiation, like light.
The Tunguska event is thought to be an airburst, that flattened many trees (80M or so), made an incredibly loud explosion, and it's claimed it was nearly as bright as the sun.
The shockwave itself is also radiant energy, in this case a kinetic overpressure wave.
Net impact effects are "wind blast, overpressure shock, thermal radiation, cratering, seismic shaking, ejecta deposition, and tsunami":
<https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/201...>
Remember that "radiation" simply refers to any effect that radiates outward from an initial point or source, say, a radiator. Yes, common parlance has abbreviated "ionizing nuclear radiation" as "radiation", but that's only one of numerous types of radiant energy.