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Hypothesis: In post-AI era real estate will be the most valuable investment

3 points by bulbosaur123 ↗ HN
This is all a guess and a hypothesis, point out where you think I'm wrong.

There's a high likelihood that rapid development in AI will result in vertical productivity boost which will lead to new technologies like nuclear fusion leading to pretty much free energy for everyone, also improved farming leading to pretty much free food for everyone.

In such world which assets will still maintain value? My guess is that it will be real estate, land specifically. Intelligent AI robots could 3D print new apartment complexes and what not, but they won't be able to magically create new land in prime real estate locations. Owning prime real estate will be the best way to flex and invest in the future, since everything else will be too easily accessible.

Thoughts?

7 comments

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jstx1
Owning the AI robots seems like a good investment too.
jqpabc123
improved farming leading to pretty much free food for everyone

Bad assumption.

Food production is a ticking time bomb just waiting to explode. Increased production depletes the soil of minerals and decreases nutrition levels. Also, it is increasingly concentrated in monopolistic corporate hands which will have the means and ability to wring every last ounce of profit out of a critical product that every human must have --- even more so than shelter.

It's possible to live in your car, a tent, under a bridge or even in a cardboard box --- but not without food.

bulbosaur123
Won't AI solve all of those issues?
jqpabc123
Housing and agriculture are both land use issues.

The assumption you are making is that AI will easily solve one off hand (the most crucial one) but not the other. I don't see any logical basis for this assumption.

bulbosaur123
The logical basis is that reduced cost of energy will allow creation of vertical farms and AI will lead to new revelations in efficacy of crop-farming which will create surplus food for everyone.

Despite that, you can't increase "efficacy" of Art Nouveau building in center of old city. It was there for hundreds of years and it will stay there for hundreds. There is no way to magically create "more land" in those areas, thus prime real estate will appreciate more than anything else.

salawat
Throwing tech at social/people problems rarely solves anything. In fact, it tends to make them worse until society gets it's head together.

Agriculture and food consumption itself is a physics problem. Faster data processing ain't gonna make the actual material processes work any better.

To convince yourself of this, attempt growing your own vegatables. It's much harder than it seems, and not the kind of problem where number crunching and n-dimensional gradient descent is going to help you alter the fundamental natural processes that drive everything.

AI is not a silver bullet. Avoid any such snake oil that suggests it is.