What is the historical success rate of well-intentioned human intervention in natural systems?
My guess is it is not overall positive.
Do we really think we are so near omniscience that we can perform experiments with such potentially broad impacts? Obviously some think so, but I am not convinced.
I would prefer we focus on the root cause of our problems rather than try to outwit nature after we have failed so many times before.
This is indeed wildly stupid, but it’s stated as a form of activism.
And there are many benefits that have been explored in the modelling community that are local and produce direct benefits to humans. Local reduction of the solar radiation above Greenland or Antarctic areas could reduce ice melt, or above cities during the hottest days of the year to counter the heat island effect. Then there’s large parts of the ocean that we could reduce to lower tyfoon strength. just to name a few.
The question is always when-where-by how much, and how wide spread. There are obvious questions of drift because of climate and weather, of the clouds but I’m not an expert in these kind of systems.
ideally this sulfer(compound) has a lifetime of just 24 hours and can be locally distributed, appropriately monitored, and has no other detrimental effects on the environment.
This might just be one of the things we need in our tool box.
Maybe the question should be "if". Despite the years of research, trillions of dollars, and multiple world ranked supercomputers dedicated to the task - climatologists still can't reliably predict anything from their models. I don't know that the accepted excuse is for it (though I suspect it is just never discussed), but I know that when my models fail - it is because I didn't sufficiently understand the system being modeled.
The day these people can accurately predict global atmospheric conditions a year out, that is the day that we can begin discussing the sanity of geoengineering. Until then it is obviously insane. Also, the selling of "cooling credits"... obvious psychotic-money-grab is obvious.
This is a staggeringly, monumentally stupid thing to do. Not only is it arrogant in the extreme, but also politically dangerous. Who gets the right to inject aerosols into the stratosphere of another continent?
> Sulfate aerosols have declined significantly since 1970 with the Clean Air Act in the United States and similar policies in Europe. The Clean Air Act was strengthened in 1977 and 1990. According to the EPA, from 1970 to 2005, total emissions of the six principal air pollutants, including PM's, dropped by 53% in the US. In 1975, the masked effects of trapped greenhouse gases finally started to emerge and have dominated ever since.
> The Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) has been collecting surface measurements. BSRN was started in the early 1990s and updated the archives in this time. Analysis of recent data reveals that the surface of the planet has brightened by about 4% in the past decade. The brightening trend is corroborated by other data, including satellite analyses.
By Iseman’s own description, the first two balloon launches were very rudimentary. He says they occurred in April somewhere in the state of Baja California, months before Make Sunsets was incorporated in October. Iseman says he pumped a few grams of sulfur dioxide into weather balloons and added what he estimated would be the right amount of helium to carry them into the stratosphere.
He expected they would burst under pressure at that altitude and release the particles. But it’s not clear whether that happened, where the balloons ended up, or what impact the particles had, because there was no monitoring equipment on board the balloons. Iseman also acknowledges that they did not seek any approvals from government authorities or scientific agencies, in Mexico or elsewhere, before the first two launches.
11 comments
[ 3.4 ms ] story [ 35.2 ms ] threadMy guess is it is not overall positive.
Do we really think we are so near omniscience that we can perform experiments with such potentially broad impacts? Obviously some think so, but I am not convinced.
I would prefer we focus on the root cause of our problems rather than try to outwit nature after we have failed so many times before.
And there are many benefits that have been explored in the modelling community that are local and produce direct benefits to humans. Local reduction of the solar radiation above Greenland or Antarctic areas could reduce ice melt, or above cities during the hottest days of the year to counter the heat island effect. Then there’s large parts of the ocean that we could reduce to lower tyfoon strength. just to name a few.
The question is always when-where-by how much, and how wide spread. There are obvious questions of drift because of climate and weather, of the clouds but I’m not an expert in these kind of systems.
ideally this sulfer(compound) has a lifetime of just 24 hours and can be locally distributed, appropriately monitored, and has no other detrimental effects on the environment.
This might just be one of the things we need in our tool box.
Maybe the question should be "if". Despite the years of research, trillions of dollars, and multiple world ranked supercomputers dedicated to the task - climatologists still can't reliably predict anything from their models. I don't know that the accepted excuse is for it (though I suspect it is just never discussed), but I know that when my models fail - it is because I didn't sufficiently understand the system being modeled. The day these people can accurately predict global atmospheric conditions a year out, that is the day that we can begin discussing the sanity of geoengineering. Until then it is obviously insane. Also, the selling of "cooling credits"... obvious psychotic-money-grab is obvious.
Scientist: We can build a big shield to block out the sun and stop global warming!
Me: Is it going to rain tomorrow?
Scientist: Weather is very complicated, we can't predict...
Me: Leave the sun alone.
https://globalnews.ca/news/2934513/empty-skies-after-911-set...
And then there's the "we got rid of it" with the Clean Air Act:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_dimming
> Sulfate aerosols have declined significantly since 1970 with the Clean Air Act in the United States and similar policies in Europe. The Clean Air Act was strengthened in 1977 and 1990. According to the EPA, from 1970 to 2005, total emissions of the six principal air pollutants, including PM's, dropped by 53% in the US. In 1975, the masked effects of trapped greenhouse gases finally started to emerge and have dominated ever since.
> The Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) has been collecting surface measurements. BSRN was started in the early 1990s and updated the archives in this time. Analysis of recent data reveals that the surface of the planet has brightened by about 4% in the past decade. The brightening trend is corroborated by other data, including satellite analyses.
> Founded in October 2022, Make Sunsets is backed by Boost VC, Pioneer Fund, and other friends.
The article lists Luke Iseman as the cofounder and CEO; from https://lukeiseman.com -
> Boxouse (YC W17) Co-Founder (with Heather Stewart). Made off-grid, open-source tiny homes out of shipping containers.
> Y Combinator Director of Hardware.
> Edyn Garden (YC W14) Co-Founder. Invented a solar-powered, wifi-connected garden sensor.
'''
By Iseman’s own description, the first two balloon launches were very rudimentary. He says they occurred in April somewhere in the state of Baja California, months before Make Sunsets was incorporated in October. Iseman says he pumped a few grams of sulfur dioxide into weather balloons and added what he estimated would be the right amount of helium to carry them into the stratosphere.
He expected they would burst under pressure at that altitude and release the particles. But it’s not clear whether that happened, where the balloons ended up, or what impact the particles had, because there was no monitoring equipment on board the balloons. Iseman also acknowledges that they did not seek any approvals from government authorities or scientific agencies, in Mexico or elsewhere, before the first two launches.
'''
amazing !