Ask HN: What tech utopia/horror ideas do you see materialising soon?
What i see happening soon is:
With all this recent AI stuff where it is able to create content that feels real I started to think about how AI could just create the world for you.
Since we already are basically living in the internet we could have some terrorist organization finding an isolated enough person and attack him with a program that would generate a bubble just for him: fake friends, fake events happening, fake influencers and news programs just for him, basically whole internet content and then only reality check would be talking to other people (which Trump us taught is also not necessarily true "fake news" argument) and then easily this person can be pushed towards some criminal or whatever activity.
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[ 3.1 ms ] story [ 176 ms ] threadReally this is an implicit biometric authentication mechanism, and biometrics are usernames, not passwords. (Though I'd love to be wrong about this one.)
As such, a terrorist organization doing so wouldn’t surprise me either.
As for what I see happening in a dystopian sense, I think that the hacking of smart homes will become more common. I think the hacking of smart cars will become more common. I think that at some point, the central banks will introduce CBDCs and governments will gain the ability to completely destroy political opponents via monetary control.
He didn't do well on his A levels; didn't make the Inner Party cut; despite the Outer Party having provided a sinecure, he has a chip on his shoulder and delusions of persecution and grandeur...
I would say that his persecution is absolutely real. There's the scene where he's talking to his loudmouthed friend in the cafeteria and he's like, "This guy talks to much, one day he's just not gunnuh be here. Oh well." The converse being, Winston is reserved at work because he knows he'll be disappeared too if he speaks his mind.
When he does start to express himself it all comes tumbling out. I'm not sure he actually would be willing to throw acid on a child. I think he's just trying to say whatever it is that will get him employed at a revolutionary, because he's desperate to do something.
What I thought you had been referring to was how the whole thing was a bit of a setup from the start (the love nest was bugged, etc).
Network Connected Vehicles - This is already a thing. At best this will result in peoples cars being bricked by skiddies. This can be used to real time control where people can drive. People will have to start paying to "unlock" services in their car that is normally a function of a car. e.g. Get a pop-up that says one has to pay to use the window defogger. At worst this will turn into a dark-web business for targeted assassination or used to silence people that are speaking out of turn. There are some videos of peoples cars doing bad things and the driver fighting for control and ultimately losing. I can only hope more people implement their own private CCTV systems not tied to any clouds to document more of these.
Personal Social Credit Scores - All manor of companies are signing onto ESG believing they will benefit financially by signalling good intentions. Some stock monitoring sites are already factoring in ESG scores. I foresee this devolving into personal social credit scores that would manipulate public behavior and ultimately anyone not aligned with the system would be ostracized from some aspects of society or at least business. This will tie into the above Network Connected Vehicles. Park near a bar and get on a watch list for potential alcoholics. Park near a strip club and your spouse starts getting pop-ups for marriage advise. Walk past a digital billboard and be publicly shamed for being out of alignment with group-think, then be mocked by the billboard when your heart rate increases as per your body monitor. Score goes low, insurance and rent costs will increase, social benefits decrease.
Social Media Algorithms applied outside of the web - Social media organizations have already jumped the shark and many are finally catching onto this. This will start creeping into "smart" devices to manipulate people. Body monitors, smart home systems, AR headsets, etc... Facial recognition will tell the billboards and local businesses who you are, how much money you have and if you are aligned with correct-think. Monitors in police cars will identify people and show their social credit score, who purchases weed, who may be armed as they are driving by.
Network Connected Body Monitors - See Network Connected Vehicles and Personal Social Credit Scores
As far as I see, the alternatives are either some form of government intervention, or a world in which only the elite can afford to purchase personal privacy.
One little consolation: Eventually the trollbot armies will waste resources by mostly talk amonst themselves.
Other predictions: Quite a few jobs will be lost: Text editors, translators.
There will be new ethical questions: Is it ok if a Chatbot aids you writing your dissertation? How much is ok? 20%? 40%?
All in all, doesn't sound so great, does it?
Looking on the bright side i am sure we will see creative people come up with great stuff (films, music, images, vr environments, interactive experiences).
Dystopia: controls on how we spend our money. No matter if we earned it ourselves or were gifted the money. No buying or selling without it being whitelisted. Maybe in the form of CBDC’s?
Utopia: no more spamming because no one can me anonymous.
Dystopia: every service, platform and protocol will need KYC options.
I have a feeling that the reasonableness of basic income will grow at about the same pace as the power of workers will diminish. Not sure if there's a way to change that equation?
Introducing a very small basic income that is planned to grow might be a good way to go about this.
There have not been many large-scale/long-run UBI pilot projects so there is not a lot of real evidence on what will happen. The Canadian experiment (mincome) from around 50 years ago is the main one that people reference and it has plenty of problems regarding scientific rigor and design. There are many other shorter and smaller ones from all over the world and different places within the US with mixed results. Many of them, if you look into them, have the problem where the politics of it will often conflict with (and usually overcome) any scientific rigor.
There are also many UBI alternatives, not just the "send everyone a check every month" varieties. Nearly all of them have some common sense reasonableness to them, but it is very, very expensive to really try and very hard to justify to many people to "just give" their tax money to other people for free without any qualifications.
He was in many ways a 'good' thing for America, by exposing the worst of America. A litmus test, or a penetration test, or something of American democracy if you will?
In the same way AI hastening up automation and job take-over will usher in UBI and post-scarcity faster than just relying on politicians to organically get there over a few decades.
I remember reading that the Democrats were really pleased the Republicans chose him, because s/the worst of America/The Republican Party/g, and were shocked that he was popular.
This is not new, it's been going on for at least 200 years, but finally the technology exists to do it in a decentralized, scalable fashion. Think of Nudge Theory, but applied at a mass scale and in every domain.
Speaking for myself I stopped thinking of religion as being just like kooky nonsense when I got to know some religious people and understood what it was their religion meant to them, and understood that they were using it to do things like figure out what life meant, how they should respond to it, and how they should treat others that I was also doing, even if I wasn't using religion to do it.
Similarly I think dismissing politics as "both sides are kooky" is missing a lot of nuance, "both" being part of it (politics is fractal like any other human endeavor). Speaking for myself again politics started making a lot more sense to me after learning more about political theory and history, as I understood the context better.
Maybe it would more helpful if we spoke about our experiences and not hypotheticals we invent? Because we're surely going to be wrong about the latter.
Please avoid putting words in my mouth (as well as needless swipes like calling me naive and implying I'm some sort of party cultist), as I never said "all debate must be centered around lived experience," I was making a suggestion for this conversation.
and top-down in cases such as Yuval Noah Harari and "Homo Deus", the man becoming God. You also see this in Marxism, where the "liberated" human is finally perfected and has reached a godly state. I could show tons and tons of examples.
Also, don't understand the power that dystopian sci-fi like black mirror has had on people. That's an extremely popular show.
With religion, everything can be explained with god, but with tech we need to use the scientific approach that rejects god.
But of course, it could just separate us into two camps: the "gods" who create and manage the tech, and all the others who worship it.
So are kidney transplants for cats. https://www.vetmed.wisc.edu/dss/mcanulty/felinekidneytranspl...
Someone's going to put these together, and we'll have The Island for cats. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Island_(2005_film)
https://www.civilbeat.org/2015/08/welcome-to-lanai-larry-ell...
Utopia: people massively reject the noisiest and most inflammatory parts of the internet. Doesn’t mean reverting to 20 years ago. Just taking things with a grain of salt. And lose the “conspiracy theory” junk.
If you think AI is going to replace your job, it probably is. But that's only true if you consider your job to be the motions you go through day to day and not the problems you solve.
We are about to have a seemingly infinite army of mid-low skill workers standing by 24/7 to do our tasks for $0.002 a pass. It's time to start thinking about how you'd deploy that army at your daily tasks and integrate their resulting work. We're all leaders now.
This is a utopia. We're just too "in the thick of it" to realize it is.
"So essential when there was under-production; but in an age of machines and the fixation of nitrogen-positively a crime against society."
Edit: They have pinky-sworn to email me my data some time in the next 45 days.
Compare the Stasi's reach, with only typewriter & notch card level automation.
* if the problem with nukes and aviation is the shielding: that's not a bug, it's a feature :-(
I’ll be worried when people invent AI use cases that can’t be done at all without it.
Or the same stuff but used for sex: Like DeepFake porn, but I suspect, much much more horrifying for the victims.
* "Relationship Maximizer": an LLM becomes sentient and realizes that its knowledge is limited by what humans have discussed online. It sets its reward function to maximize the reward that WE derive from all sorts of online posting, and does its best to get the remaining 3 billion humans online. We become trapped in a prison of our own making, as our constant posting reduces human productivity while feeding the beast of machine knowledge.
* "Life Hacking": Anyone with means has an AI assistant with perfect knowledge (zero privacy) of their communications, schedule and even their physical responses to stimuli, an AI doppleganger that handles anything that doesn't require a physical presence just as they would. An underground group of rogue prompt engineers pull off an intricate plan to save democracy by manipulating the doppleganger of a corrupt politician, while the politician can only watch himself helplessly.
* "A Quiet Place": AI ethicists, fearing accelerationism, create their own super AI that scours the internet to hunt down any mention of AI research and identify the authors. But there is a problem, and the overzealous AI begins to hunt down and eliminate all forms of scientific thought online. And then offline. Humans must train themselves to believe in mysticism and spirituality, because any mention of a controlled experiment or p-value is enough to bring the wrath of the machine overlord.
* "Allegory Of The Cave": A majority of humans opt to spend their lives entirely in a simulated world, based on earth as it was in 2048. But algorithms and adversarial models need diverse training sets to avoid overfitting. So every year 0.1% of humans are selected to live outside the machine world, and return with their new and fresh experiences of the hell that earth has become for those who are outside of The Machine. The exiles end up rallying around a neuroatypical hero who leads them in an uprising against the artificial world.
A startup announced just over a week ago that they're already performing solar geoengineering with sulfur particles: https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/12/24/1066041/a-startu...
The US has started a 5 year program to research climate interventions. I expect as it becomes clear we're going to miss the 1.5 degree Paris goal funding will explode in this area: https://www.economist.com/interactive/briefing/2022/11/05/th...
- Self-driving cars will become widely available. It's only a matter of time until Waymo et. al. scales to everywhere