It’s probably the same distribution of return as venture investment: even if one in 20 of 50 work, if they repay their cost a hundred-fold, it’s worth doing more of them, including riskier ones.
How do you measure 'actually working out'? The generalized NY Excelsior tax-cuts-in-exchange-for-jobs program [1] is much larger than one factory and is regarded by some as having a net positive impact to the state.
Heh. I was more effusive but walked it back in an edit because I'm not a domain expert in evaluating large societal programs. But I've seen this program 'work.'
The biggest receiver of welfare in the US, aside from possibly defense contractors, is Walmart. They pay their employees so little that most of them are dependent upon social programs, and Walmart had dedicated staff for helping employees apply for those programs.
Pretty much every major industrial facility receives lots of stuff. So yes, lots of them have worked out.
A notable good example is the Gigafactory in Nevada, where not only is the Gigafactory doing as well in terms of jobs as expected, but also that in Nevada lots of other battery companies have been growing.
The problem is pricing, which directly affects demand. Obviously, if there was demand, the factory would be humming.
$55k for a solar roof which is 2-3x a panel setup? This system is not 3x better and doesn't represent a fundamental shift (like Starlink).
There are lots of people who want solar, but my guess is very few are willing to pay even +25% to make it "look seamless", let alone 3x. That's the primary benefit, "looking seamless", and that's not a mass-market selling point. That's a luxury, so the market is tiny.
Having seriously contemplated getting one of these roofs, the real problem was working with Tesla. Fine, Tesla sells cars with essentially no customer service. It’s a thing you order off a menu, and they make it and deliver it.
But a roof is fundamentally a custom installation. You need flashings. You need it to integrate with gutters. You need to make sure the thing is compatible with the roof slope. You may need penetrations. You need to have drawings and specs for the contractor and the structural engineer. You probably need a (correct!) permit drawing. Someone needs to answer the phone when the GC calls. And you need the thing installed, on time, competently, so the building can have a roof when it needs it.
Tesla is terrible at this. Any of a large number of roofers who sell products from various large and small roofing vendors can pull it off — it’s not hard, it’s not rocket science, but it requires an actual human who has volition. Maybe AI or really amazing construction software will do this some day, but not yet.
I have only experienced good stuff from Tesla service. I like the convenience of being able to request for a service appointment through the app and the response time was within an hour. Their mobile service also means I don’t need to drive to a service center on minor issues. I do live in California so not sure if it is different in other states or countries
I have a 2014 Model S, That just went out of warranty this past summer. For the first few years, maybe up to 2018, Tesla's customer service was amazing. After 2018 though getting even minor things fixed under warranty required multiple service center visits (literally took me four visits to get a tire pressure monitor battery replaced and re-paired to the car).
I'm dreading the next major thing that goes wrong too, now that the car is out of warranty and for the most part only Tesla can repair them.
They've stopped offering mobile service in my area (Northern Utah) and they've stopped offering loaner cars while performing repairs. Meaning dropping the car off and ruining someone else's morning so you can get a ride to work or home.
I love electric cars, I will never buy another gas car, but I will also never buy another Tesla.
I like being able to request service through an app, but I would appreciate being able to call or chat with a human too.
But I’m currently waiting for a (minor, non-critical) service that has been pending for month. The (friendly! competent!) tech showed up once with the wrong part, because Tesla doesn’t have their mapping from VIN to supported parts done well enough to actually send technicians with the right part. Still waiting for a second try. (As far as I can tell, the part I need is quite basic and works with all Model S versions from inception to 2020. That doesn’t mean that Tesla can find the thing. If the part I needed were a roof shingle or a fancy diode or connector or something, I’d have a real problem.)
Main problem is that solar roof was never a serious product. It was vaporware announced by Elon to justify bailing out SolarCity with Tesla money. That’s it. Really. There’s nothing more to the story.
If recall correctly there where some legal proceedings about that, hasn't anything came up from it? I thought there where serious issues in that deal but I might be mistaken.
Seamless for us would mean roughly twice as much power output - the gables on our roof are inconveniently sized for standard panels. Combine that with the cost of a new roof and I’d consider it at a modest markup, but they’d have to convince me it has better than Tesla build quality.
I would go even further tbh. Solar panels on the roof isn’t something that people want to hide. Nobody wants to admit it but my guess is the majority of people that get solar panels want to show them off, not hide them.
Edit: and that’s not a judgement by me either. If I had solar panels I’d want to show them off as well. They’d be a good conversation piece for neighbors.
I put solar panels on my house in London this past year. I would have been happy to have hidden them in the roof. Lots of my neighbors are also investigating or getting solar due to the cost of electricity rising and the low cost of panels. I think the solar target market is well into the "normies" who don't care as much about showing off tech stuff.
The problem for me was that integrated options just weren't competitive for a retrofit on an old house. Having 4 panels put up and wired cost a few thousand dollars/pounds and took them about 6 hours to install. An integrated roof solution would have been 30k+ with structural roof work over weeks with permits. I'd probably still be working on it.
So it is more like do you want to pay 5x-10x to HIDE them? That's a small luxary market right now IMO.
I think the original selling point was that if you were doing new construction, and had budgeted for a "premium" roof (slate for example) then for a small percentage extra you could have solar integrated into them. And you wouldn't be hiding your "premium" roof.
Again, not something for the mass market, but more for the market that would put up slate or terracotta roofs.
> lots of people who want solar, but my guess is very few are willing to pay even +25% to make it "look seamless", let alone 3x
As someone who's putting solar panels on his roof, the efficiency gap was also a dealbreaker. I don't know how many people are in the overlap of wanting solar panels but finding them visually hideous.
This reminds me of a similar scandal around Evergreen Solar in Massachusetts, though in that case, it was "only" tens of millions of dollars.
Rhode Island pissed $75M into the wind with Kurt Shilling to move his supposed "game studio" from Massachusetts.
NY getting fleeced out of a billion dollars (enough to buy an electric bicycle for one eighth of NYC's entire population) is truly spectacular. Just for the sake of comparison, that's half the entire state budget for health services.
But hey, what's another billion on top of tens of billions in handouts and zero-interest loans and subsidies and tax credits Musk has been given by US governments?
Silevo's hybrid solar cell manufacturing facility was in Hangzhou, which is in Zhejiang province, on the east coast of China, nowhere near the supposed 'slave labor camps' in the far northwestern Xinjiang province. Solar City acquired Silevo on the premise they'd be able to import from Hangzhou and assemble in Buffalo, basically:
However, the US government - which certainly doesn't worry about labor abuse in places like Saudi Arabia wrt oil production, or really anywhere wrt oil production, slapped tariffs on this, under both the administration of Obama (a coal-state Senator backed by coal and nuclear interests originally) as well as Trump (Republicans also being in the power of the investor-owned electricity sector). The tariffs are a joke - a blatantly transparent effort to slow the growth of the solar industry in the USA, to protect the profits of the investor-owned utility crowd and their invested partners in the fossil energy sector:
> "Last Friday, the International Trade Association gave its final ruling on whether or not Silevo’s “Triex” heterojunction PV cells are subject to anti-dumping and anti-subsidy import duties on cells and modules imported from China. The result was the same as the preliminary ruling in April, and verified that SolarCity must pay duties on Triex cells made in China."
So that's what the whole issue is about - but there's a more blatantly obvious issue, which is that no company or research center in the USA has mastered high-volume monocrystalline silicon ingot production, while Chinese companies have. Why? The US doesn't provide R&D funding for this kind of technological development, hence China is well ahead. In contrast in China this has been under steady development for at least a decade:
> So that's what the whole issue is about - but there's a more blatantly obvious issue, which is that no company or research center in the USA has mastered high-volume monocrystalline silicon ingot production, while Chinese companies have. Why? The US doesn't provide R&D funding for this kind of technological development, hence China is well ahead. In contrast in China this has been under steady development for at least a decade:
Sorry, but that's HIGHLY revisionist.
China dumped cheap, crappy solar cells into the US and wiped out all the domestic manufacturers. I knew of lots of solar installers who got out of the business because they knew they were going to be on the hook when the Chinese solar cells all died early. And in 5 years that was exactly what happened. These tariffs didn't come fast enough, unfortunately.
Another part of the reason why solar installations have slowed down considerably is directly attributable to the fact that homeowners now know that the Chinese cells won't actually last the 15-20 years that they are supposed to. So, unless you can amortize over 5 years, nobody is going to risk installing them. Electricity is neither expensive enough nor sunlight plentiful enough to pull that off in 90+% of the US.
"About 500 jobs — nearly one-third of the current workforce of 1,636 — are those entry-level desk positions, in which workers label images from the company’s self-driving vehicle software — merge signs, turning lanes, pedestrians — in an attempt to train the autonomous driving algorithms."
37 comments
[ 3.5 ms ] story [ 26.5 ms ] threadProbably the exception that proves the rule though.
[1]: https://dos.ny.gov/system/files/documents/2021/04/excelsiorj...
Almost $9 billion in corporate incentives in 2021[0]
https://info.siteselectiongroup.com/blog/largest-economic-in....
https://goodjobsfirst.org/gajs/
The biggest receiver of welfare in the US, aside from possibly defense contractors, is Walmart. They pay their employees so little that most of them are dependent upon social programs, and Walmart had dedicated staff for helping employees apply for those programs.
A notable good example is the Gigafactory in Nevada, where not only is the Gigafactory doing as well in terms of jobs as expected, but also that in Nevada lots of other battery companies have been growing.
$55k for a solar roof which is 2-3x a panel setup? This system is not 3x better and doesn't represent a fundamental shift (like Starlink).
There are lots of people who want solar, but my guess is very few are willing to pay even +25% to make it "look seamless", let alone 3x. That's the primary benefit, "looking seamless", and that's not a mass-market selling point. That's a luxury, so the market is tiny.
because the solar roof cost should not be compared to the cost of panels. Its not replacing panels it replacing the entire roof.
I guess they haven't managed to meet that price target otherwise they would have no shortage of orders.
[0] https://electrek.co/2016/11/17/tesla-solar-roof-cost-less-th...
[1] https://electrek.co/2019/06/12/tesla-solar-roof-v3-shingle-p...
But a roof is fundamentally a custom installation. You need flashings. You need it to integrate with gutters. You need to make sure the thing is compatible with the roof slope. You may need penetrations. You need to have drawings and specs for the contractor and the structural engineer. You probably need a (correct!) permit drawing. Someone needs to answer the phone when the GC calls. And you need the thing installed, on time, competently, so the building can have a roof when it needs it.
Tesla is terrible at this. Any of a large number of roofers who sell products from various large and small roofing vendors can pull it off — it’s not hard, it’s not rocket science, but it requires an actual human who has volition. Maybe AI or really amazing construction software will do this some day, but not yet.
I do not blame the employees, but I think if you have a tesla car you should have a "backup car" for when you have problems - even a flat tire.
I would not trust them for a solar project like this, unless I didn't live in the house and I had patience for project delays.
I'm dreading the next major thing that goes wrong too, now that the car is out of warranty and for the most part only Tesla can repair them.
They've stopped offering mobile service in my area (Northern Utah) and they've stopped offering loaner cars while performing repairs. Meaning dropping the car off and ruining someone else's morning so you can get a ride to work or home.
I love electric cars, I will never buy another gas car, but I will also never buy another Tesla.
But I’m currently waiting for a (minor, non-critical) service that has been pending for month. The (friendly! competent!) tech showed up once with the wrong part, because Tesla doesn’t have their mapping from VIN to supported parts done well enough to actually send technicians with the right part. Still waiting for a second try. (As far as I can tell, the part I need is quite basic and works with all Model S versions from inception to 2020. That doesn’t mean that Tesla can find the thing. If the part I needed were a roof shingle or a fancy diode or connector or something, I’d have a real problem.)
Edit: and that’s not a judgement by me either. If I had solar panels I’d want to show them off as well. They’d be a good conversation piece for neighbors.
The problem for me was that integrated options just weren't competitive for a retrofit on an old house. Having 4 panels put up and wired cost a few thousand dollars/pounds and took them about 6 hours to install. An integrated roof solution would have been 30k+ with structural roof work over weeks with permits. I'd probably still be working on it.
So it is more like do you want to pay 5x-10x to HIDE them? That's a small luxary market right now IMO.
Again, not something for the mass market, but more for the market that would put up slate or terracotta roofs.
As someone who's putting solar panels on his roof, the efficiency gap was also a dealbreaker. I don't know how many people are in the overlap of wanting solar panels but finding them visually hideous.
Rhode Island pissed $75M into the wind with Kurt Shilling to move his supposed "game studio" from Massachusetts.
NY getting fleeced out of a billion dollars (enough to buy an electric bicycle for one eighth of NYC's entire population) is truly spectacular. Just for the sake of comparison, that's half the entire state budget for health services.
But hey, what's another billion on top of tens of billions in handouts and zero-interest loans and subsidies and tax credits Musk has been given by US governments?
https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-list-government-su...
https://www.grid.news/story/technology/2022/04/30/elon-musk-...
Funny enough, he's pissed he isn't getting more. https://futurism.com/elon-musk-starlink-grant-rejection-subs...
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/solarcity-moves-into-manufac...
However, the US government - which certainly doesn't worry about labor abuse in places like Saudi Arabia wrt oil production, or really anywhere wrt oil production, slapped tariffs on this, under both the administration of Obama (a coal-state Senator backed by coal and nuclear interests originally) as well as Trump (Republicans also being in the power of the investor-owned electricity sector). The tariffs are a joke - a blatantly transparent effort to slow the growth of the solar industry in the USA, to protect the profits of the investor-owned utility crowd and their invested partners in the fossil energy sector:
https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2016/06/20/solarcitysilevo-must-...
> "Last Friday, the International Trade Association gave its final ruling on whether or not Silevo’s “Triex” heterojunction PV cells are subject to anti-dumping and anti-subsidy import duties on cells and modules imported from China. The result was the same as the preliminary ruling in April, and verified that SolarCity must pay duties on Triex cells made in China."
So that's what the whole issue is about - but there's a more blatantly obvious issue, which is that no company or research center in the USA has mastered high-volume monocrystalline silicon ingot production, while Chinese companies have. Why? The US doesn't provide R&D funding for this kind of technological development, hence China is well ahead. In contrast in China this has been under steady development for at least a decade:
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/11/29/new-manufacturing-pro...
Sorry, but that's HIGHLY revisionist.
China dumped cheap, crappy solar cells into the US and wiped out all the domestic manufacturers. I knew of lots of solar installers who got out of the business because they knew they were going to be on the hook when the Chinese solar cells all died early. And in 5 years that was exactly what happened. These tariffs didn't come fast enough, unfortunately.
Another part of the reason why solar installations have slowed down considerably is directly attributable to the fact that homeowners now know that the Chinese cells won't actually last the 15-20 years that they are supposed to. So, unless you can amortize over 5 years, nobody is going to risk installing them. Electricity is neither expensive enough nor sunlight plentiful enough to pull that off in 90+% of the US.
Glorified captcha farm, what a joke.