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Seems like a rationalisation for laziness.

To be a truly good prospector, you're going really need to understand your domain. To extend the metaphor, good prospectors are also world class geologists and they have invested in hugely sophisticated prospecting tools and expertise. Schlumberger does this for oil. They are experts in prospecting, and oil companies across the world use them. That expertise is hard won, requires massive technology investments and NOT cheap.

Taken too far, it might seem that way, but an important point from the article is that:

The “judicious prospecting” mindset is worth balancing against the “really trying” mindset. There are times where both frameworks are useful, but distinguishing one from the other is a challenge...there are a multitude of scenarios where futarchy could shed light on where to best apply effort.

True. Needlessly expending energy on an idea without having a clear idea of the value is not good.