Ask HN: Are we sure LLMs are that useful in a web search application?

105 points by duringmath ↗ HN
Idly chatting with the search box doesn't strike me as the most productive use of my time.

Instant answers or whatever they're called already produce direct answers plus they cite sources and provide links which is what everyone seems to think is the solution to the "LLMs make stuff up" problem.

Not to mention they're faster and cheaper to run.

Only truly practical use case I can think of is summarizing articles or writing them which makes more sense as a word processor or browser add-ons

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When you need an introduction to the subject area as much as you needed specific information from it; then an LLM explaining terms and offering options for further exploration can be a nice thing. (I assume they'll use it that way...)

When you're hunting for a particular fact, like "that bit of code i half remember seeing on a page 15 years ago", then I don't see anything for an LLM to add. Google had a pretty good index for that purpose about 15 years ago, but they've chosen to prioritize other goals since then. I dunno if anyone works "find things you're searching for" as a market now.

Which is an answer to your question: Does it matter if an LLM helps search the web? That's not what people are doing, that's not what these companies are selling.

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Sometimes I don't really know what exactly to type into google because its only something rough in my head. It then takes like multiple try&research iterations on the topic I have in mind until being able to formulate the actual question, at least if I wasn't derailed in the process (monkey brain). A Chatbot is a godsend for me here and I will happily pay money for that alone.

Another point is that I am either creative or productive at a time, but never both... at least aware of which state I am in. ChatGPT has proven to take over the other part surprisingly good. ie:

- when I am in a productive mood and stumble upon a thinking problem, generative AI is like on-the-spot creativity for "good enough" solutions, like naming a programming thingy or write some filler text around a few keywords instead of me looking for words.

- when I am in a creative mindset, I increasingly feed some code snippets into the bot and ask some questions to "fill in the gaps", like writing a specific function using library X, then to write a documentation explaining how it works, then to also write some unittests, and sometimes I even derail a bit or let the bot explain parts that stand out in some way so I can maybe learn a trick.

... And i used ChatGPT already in kinda emergency situations, like when I know 5 minutes in advance that I have to speak in front of a crowd/in a meeting and it gave me extremely useful outlines to quickly adapt to even when in a panicked mind state - calming me down through a given structure that sounded okay-ish, and it doesn't matter if the response is right or wrong.

On average I think I would be far better served if search providers just fixed their operators.
A major thing I find lacking in search engines is a way to disambiguate between homographs. "AI" search engines are one way to implement that capability. However, I want a search engine that gives me websites as a result, and is not capable of lying to me. So far every single "AI" search I have tried has given me incorrect, invented answers. This is a big step in the wrong direction.
Unlike normal search engines which give you SEO tuned spam about 50% of the time. Are you sure it's a step in the wrong direction?

> every single "AI" search I have tried has given me incorrect, invented answers.

Really? Every single one? Not a single AI (ChatGPT, presumably) query you've tried has given you anything except incorrect information? What kind of things have you been querying for?

Interesting point - what is the noise in each one of them:

- chatGPT - 10% hallucination

- Google - 50% spam

Which is better - the "honest hallucination" from AI or the "spam for profit" human operation?

Is google really only 50% spam and is chatgpt only 10% hallucination ?
10% is on the very low side of things
Ignoring the percentages and just taking your question alone, I prefer the spam. It's easy to spot the spam. It's harder to spot the hallucination.
most answers are "it depends". so you might need to offer more information to get a better answer. so a conversation would be better.
Years ago there was an idea called "the semantic web": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semantic_Web

The basic idea was to have enough metadata about web sites so that you could get programs to do something approaching Prolog-style reasoning about the content and meaning of the web pages.

With more advanced LLMs it looks like a slightly different approach to achive something like the semantic web idea.

I think the idea is to constantly feed the model with updates from crawling the web and have the LLM "digest" the content, apply some filters to remove bad stuff, and then provide a meaningful result to whatever queries it might be asked.

I'd picture that as a hybrid system that uses some old AI ideas together with some new AI ideas. AlphaGo which combines a neural network-based player with a MCMS player that simulates a large number of games all the way to the end, is a good example.

The intellectual north star of this is

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAT_solver

and might be a better model than the "semantic web" in that the semantic web has revolved around description logics like OWL that implement a limited subset of first-order logic that is always decidable. One trouble is that OWL-based systems can't handle arithmetic at all, given a height and a weight you can write a rule that says anybody over 6 feet is tall but you can't say a person with a BMI over 30 is obese because OWL can't add, multiply and divide. But something a little more expressive that searches efficiently in practice because it gets "hunches" from a neural net could be useful but it will not evade the limits on computation and logic that Godel, Tarski and Turing warned you about.

SAT solvers <3

there’s something about SATPLAN that feels like it has metaphysical significance.

> Years ago there was an idea called...

That idea was the basis for the current generation of Google search (see: Metaweb).

It's all going to go horribly wrong because people, but, yes:

1) Integration with voice assistants. Links/sources are irrelevant.

2) Models tuned against a particular body of work don't care if links go stale, or websites get SlashdottedHackerNewshuggedDDOSed, or etc. Links/sources are irrelevant.

3) Inbound "service requests" processed by something that can better understand the question and the available answers/solutions. Links don't matter much.

4) When "Okay what are some good websites to read more about this?" can be answered, too, bang.

5) Ever asked somebody a question and just rolled with their answer instead of demanding citations? I mean, you're doing it here. So, again, yes.

> 4) ...

ChatGPT will already do this, when you get an answer you want to learn more about, ask

"where can I learn more about this?"

"can you provide links?"

there are a number of prompts that work, you can even provide it with an AND clause in the first prompt

I've seen ChatGPT make up fake links and fake citations that look superficially real but don't really point to anything.

It seems there are two kinds of people: those who see wrong results from ChatGPT and think they are wrong and those who see wrong results from ChatGPT and are amazed at how right they are.

If I was going to use AI for something it might be to find the type II's and make sure they "never work in this town again" because if they can't call ChatGPT on its bullshit they probably can't call anybody on their bullshit.

Well, I mean, you can be both. I'm amazed by how right ChatGPT can be despite how often it's wrong.

> I've seen ChatGPT make up fake links and fake citations that look superficially real but don't really point to anything.

I tried asking it the other day for free software that would transcribe video. It gave me five pieces of software, four of which didn't exist and one of which was not free.

I am amazed with both how right and wrong it can be. It can give impressive responses and fail spectacularly
I am a little amazed at how people get amazed by it.

As a software dev I am expected to get it right, not almost right. I just coded up something that works most of the time but failed in one case and the tester sent it back. In my case that defect takes somewhere between 1% and 500% of the effort to fix as the rest of that ticket but in the case of ChatGPT "close but no cigar" is not close at all in terms of having a strategy that is reliably truthful.

If ChatGPT has a really "amazing" ability it is in getting people to think it is amazing. I think of that story

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Emperor%27s_New_Clothes

and that it's not just cheaply dismissive to point out that ChatGPT's core competence is the same as that Emperor because not everybody can pull off what that Emperor pulled off. See also

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ELIZA_effect

which is a anecdote from the beginning of AI research that seems forgotten today in how people react to ChatGPT.

It is not amazing all of the time, or perhaps amazing at all, but I can be amazed that LMs have reached a new threshold. I have specific examples where the interaction gave me a correct answer with rational faster than I could Google and sift through results. Something that took us weeks to figure out, ChatGPT gave us the two things we did, from just two prompts about what was going on. This was no trivial coding problem. It involved complications in a distributed build system. Sometimes it's not about getting the exact answer, but getting ideas about where to look. ChatGPT is not just for software either, it is quite useful as a co-writer.

To think that ChatGPT is not impressive is to close yourself off from what is actually happening. I was there with you until I started trying it out regularly. To think that it is not providing value is to neglect reality. You do not get to judge others as inferior for finding ChatGPT useful. This is the impression you are giving.

Nothing is perfect. Think of something that amazes you and then consider where it is not perfect. It is perfectly reasonable for people to find ChatGPT impressive without it being perfect. DAN and SAM are also impressive sessions people have had with ChatGPT that show somewhere it can be manipulated.

TL;DR As devs, we use search because it saves us hours of time. ChatGPT is a tool you should add to your toolbox because it can also save you hours of time.

> As a software dev I am expected to get it right, not almost right.

That is not 100% true. I'm sure all of us have put code in production that we knew had issues and it was a conscious decision given the tradeoffs and timelines.

This being separate from the bugs we unknowingly release into the wild.

I can get a good stock pick from time to time throwing at a dart at the newspaper. In fact, those stock picks perform about as well as stock picks from pundits like Jim Cramer.
I meant when they can do this reliably. ChatGPT will readily supply references and even summaries of things that are wholly fabricated.
yes, the hallucination problem is problematic, but remember the pixel attacks on the first visual DNNs? They were made more resilient with GANs, which were the first hallucinators? I've been waiting for capsule networks to get a better algo, wonder if there is something similar for LLMs...

I expect these LLMs to improve in the coming years, especially as they are made into products and wrapped with more tools into Q&A pipelines.

How does it define what a "good" website is, though? It seems to me that this would be little different than relying on any other single source for information. That practice is always problematic.
We can consider the following when thinking about how to answer this

- how do current search engines rank results?

- what features correlate with good?

- how do features of sites get encoded, queried, and returned?

- how might LMs be already involved in this process?

- how might LLMs / ChatGPT like systems encode these things?

- how might we enrich training data to facilitate improved LLM information retrieval?

I would suspect, with current models and algos, that the more often certain statements are found across the training data, the more likely that information is to be "correct"

A good site might be one that has many of these "correct" chunks. Though I doubt they are there yet. A next phase task will likely be along the lines we are discussing here. i.e. How do we return citations and references in responses

> how do current search engines rank results?

I think there's a poor correlation between search engine rankings and website quality, so it might be better not to include this.

> what features correlate with good?

Right, that's the essential question. Google's original bit of genius was to to ignore that question entirely, and go with "popular" instead. You can measure popular, but "good" entirely depends on what it is you value. That makes it somewhat subjective.

PageRank worked well at first by defining quality by the number of backlinks, or sites that linked to it. Essential if you had good content, it was likely that many others pointed to it. Ofcourse this was quickly gamed, but they were able to leverage their search engine usage to observe how users interacted with results, and later pages.

I imagine that you could have a quality measurement by finding the chunk embeddings that are most popular, and then finding the sites that have these in the highest concentration. User interaction will still likely be a very important feature in the quality space.

> PageRank worked well at first by defining quality by the number of backlinks, or sites that linked to it.

Yes. It was measuring popularity. It was genius because it solved the problem usefully well, but page rankings have never been a fantastic indication of quality -- again, depending on what you consider "quality". It was just better than nothing.

> Yes. It was measuring popularity.

Back link counting is not the same thing as popularity, which measures visits

PageRank was better than keyword search, which became spammed and PR was resilient to. Now there are 100s of signals being used, see the Yandex leak

It is the same as popularity -- it's measuring the popularity among other websites rather than individuals, but it's popularity nonetheless.
Yes, but not in the form of chatbots.

Among other things, a LLM can be seen as a store which you query and get results from. A chatbot is cute because it formats output text to look like conversation, and the recent applications are nice because the query (now known as prompt) can be complicated and long, and can influence the format and length of the results.

But the cool stuff is being able to link the relatively small amount of text you input as a query, into many other chunks of texts that are semantically similar (waves hands around like helicopter blades). So, an LLM is a sort of "knowledge" store, that can be used for expanding queries, and search results, to make it more likely that a good result seems similar to the input query.

What do I mean by similar? well, the first iteration of this idea is vector similarity (e.g. https://github.com/facebookresearch/DPR). The second iteration is to store the results into the model itself, so that the search operation is performed by the model itself.

This second iteration will lead, IMHO, to a different sort of search engine. Not one over "all the pages" as, in theory at least, google and the like currently work. Instead, it will be restricted to the "well learnt pages", those which, because of volume of repetition, structure of text, or just availability to the training algorithm, get picked up and encoded into the weights.

To make an analogy, is like asking a human who are the Knights of the Round Table and getting back the usual "Percival, Lanceelot and Galahad", but just because the other thousand knights mentioned in some works are not popular enough for that given human to know them.

This is a different sort of search engine than we are used to, one which might be more useful for many (most?) applications. The biases and dangers of it are things we are only starting to imagine.

Exactly. Unfortunately, I think the "chat" aspect is obscuring what is actually happening here, and distracting from the achievement.

First, the human input is extremely flexible, but can include instructions. It is natural language programming.

Second, the "conversation" has state. I can give an instruction, and then a followup instruction that adds to the first instruction. Someday down the road there will be two states, your account state (instructions you taught it that it retains as long as you are logged in. Maybe my account can have multiple state buckets/buildings I can enter, one of one set of rules, one for another. Could call them programs or routines. (computer execute study routine)) and temporary state (instructions it retains only for the duration of the conversation/search.)

The exciting part here is being able to query data and manipulate it in memory. Making a search, refining the search, redirecting the search in a different direction when its not working. That collaborative, iterative type search doesnt really exist at the moment. I cant tell google "the results you just returned are garbage, here is why, try again."

It is more like a fuzzy commandline. The chatbotness is just a layer of cute on top, that isnt completely necessary.

I never thought of this, but now that I see your idea of the "two levels of state", I find it incredibly likely and clear that it's going to work like that eventually, yes.
And lets look at the natural evolution/expectation from a corporation like Microsoft. They will sell this as a service to businesses. It is again, like Vista and others, an enterprise product being beta tested on consumers Joe Public.

The enterprise product will start with its own state. It will be something you can limit to specific tasks. Youll be able to write an app that takes instructions and outputs data in magical ways completely different than anything before. Normal data manipulation programming will be replaced by this weird opaque black box, that is ever changing, and you will need to trust consistently outputs the same thing given an identical input.

On Google when I search for "X that does not Y" it would often return "X that does Y" instead. Hard to force Google to respect the query intent. LLMs on the other hand process intent very well, but they hallucinate. So the obvious solution is a combination of them.

Ideally Google search would have a flag to "follow my intent to the letter" and return empty if nothing is found. When you are searching for a specific thing, a response with other things feels like bullshit, Google trying to milk more clicks wasting your time. I don't mean exact phrase search, I mean exact semantic search.

This is causing issues when searching for bug fixes by ignoring the exact version, when shopping it will ignore some of your filters and respond with bad product suggestions, and when searching something specific that looks like some other popular keyword, it will give you the popular one, as if if has an exclusion zone and you cannot search for anything else around it.

"Minimum weight of a scooter with back suspension" -> matches information about carrying capacity. Of course more people discuss about max passenger weight than minimum scooter weight, but I really don't care about the other one.

I feel like what I want is a LLM that can tell me not only a summary answer, but what search terms are most likely to return documentation for the answer. Provide clickable citations documenting the answer using those terms (it can iterate on the answer and terms if they aren't internally consistent). Then give summaries of the information at each citation and/or parameters to input if the response requires further operations/searches. It could provide some commentary of the quality/recency of those citation/sources as well.

That makes the response more current than the last LLM crawl&tune, allows a further directed search based on the new parameters, and provides a traceable path to sources and citations. If it finds that there's not a Python library with that name then iterate.

Basically, an LLM should have a very good idea what good search terms are for the topic, and where to find the information, whereas I might not know the acronyms, jargon, or related fields and optimal answers.

Yes, this is getting pretty close to writing an 8th grade class report that covers anything on the web. That's about where these seem to be.

*ps I copied this from a post I made yesterday*

No, I was not convinced to start with and am getting less convinced all the time. To explain I'll go back to the middle ages. This was a time when the average person did not have access to books and the books which were in existence mostly were related to religion. That in itself was not that much of a problem since religion was the guiding line in most of people's lives but what was a problem was that those who wanted to know about what those books contained had to go through a middle man - an ecclesiastic - to get an interpretation. This gave those middle men enormous power which many of them wielded to their advantage, something which eventually led to a schism inside the ecclesiastical world when one of them nailed a pamphlet to a church door deriding the excesses of his world. When books became more generally available and with that literacy became a thing the world changed for what it seemed to be for good...

...until the rise of the new ecclesiastical class? These models are biased in several ways with the training set defining their world view and those who train them intervening in specific areas to bend the output to their will. They can be made to negate the old dictum of garbage in, garbage out to garbage in, gospel out - where the gospel follows whatever the (small-c) creator thinks the populace should know and (in extension) think.

In short I don't trust these models any further than I can throw them.

I've seen an "AI governance" narrative advanced elsewhere. By this they meant that AI would govern, centrally plan or act as an intermediary in disputes. This is distinct from the other meaning of the phrase pertaining to ethical use of ML models.

It isn't hard to imagine a world where answers from ML models are the standard of truthiness, much like Wikipedia is for many.

At least with Wikipedia the manipulation is visible and attributable. These LLMs are black boxes to the outside world, rife with manipulations (as can be seen from the way ChatGPT has changed its behaviour over time in specific areas) and in no way verifiable. Even if the creators vow to having used a certain set of data to train the model this can not be verified.

To the downvoters: explain, don't just knee-jerk your disapproval. I don't care about karma but it is tiring to see things which don't follow the narrative being downvoted out of existence.

Find me all GPUs sorted by price desc, where the max depth is 12 inches that get great reviews. They should all be NVidia.

Good luck wasting hours of your time googling for that by hand.

Newegg is the appropriate search engine here.
Just in general, as a way we interact with data, being able to type all my filters into a sentence without syntax, absolutely kills any sort of existing filter system. Think about clothing websites, where you click a filter and the page has to refresh, or even just the page freezes for a second while it thinks. Having to scroll down a giant list of filter options to find the ones you know you want. Now I can just type "short sleeve green tshirts, medium tall only" and it will apply the correct filters. I can type that faster than I can even look through the filters the website is offering.

Newegg would be wise to adopt such filtering.

You would think so, but no. Not one ecommerce search [1] is giving you accurate results for searches like that, because they think that they're losing sales, if they don't highlight other products that you'd be "likely" to also purchase.

1. with the possible exception of really niche stores like digi-key or other electronics components stores where it's really important you get exactly what you're looking for

I'd like to see these things (eventually) used for automated phone systems like CVS and my bank.

Mostly this is just to calm me down because ChatGPT gives me the illusion that I'm interacting with a human. The current voice systems are infuriatingly bad.

It would be nice if CVS's phone system would actually listen to me and modify its output accordingly. "I already gave you my birth date. And NO, I don't need a COVID booster."

edit: I'd like to meet the person who sold CVS its prescription web-site and its voice system. Simply to marvel at them and the swindle they pulled off, delivering absolute trash and probably walking away with a king's ransom.

>The current voice systems are infuriatingly bad.

But at least they're deterministic and finite. I imagine ChatGPT like results from a phone system would be even worse. LLM's are incredible when you can massage the answer you want out of it in a feedback loop, but not so much for automated systems.

> I imagine ChatGPT like results from a phone system would be even worse.

You might be correct.

I can't be sure.

My opinion is definitely influenced by spending an hour on the phone with CVS yesterday + another hour on the phone with my father's cable company.

I think the you're going to end up there either way eventually, as instant answers will start to pick up and cite more "LLMs make stuff up" generated content.
I think the summarisers are going to be valuable. As a Kagi subscriber I'm looking forward to them integrating their AI labs demo that was showcased recently. There's certainly potential for search to become an order of magnitude better over the next few years.

The issue I see with the chat approach is trust. I've seen so many examples of these models just making shit up now that I reckon regular use of them will eventually lead to mistrust between the human and the chat-bot. If you can't trust the answers and have to go and check yourself, it's dead as an idea IMHO.

AI summarising articles written by AI. Productive use of everyone's time.
Maybe not interfacing directly with a LLM ala ChatGPT but as an extension of vector search using word embeddings. It offers users a much more flexible interface to explore different combinations of dimensions vs a rigid facet UI interface. Well you can argue that the engineering has shifted to making the model, and that is true, but by keeping it fuzzy there is more room for creative prompt engineering. One challenge will be teaching the user what one doesn't know.
I'd scratch out "word" and replace that with "text" or "sentence" or "document".

I saw word embeddings in the mid 2010's as a step backwards and I walked away from a lucrative consulting contract because I couldn't convince the sponsor that it was a total waste to apply word2vec to clinical documents because a significant amount of the meaning of the documents was in out-of-distribution words. (Expecting that to succeed is like a football coach thinking he can shoot the quarterback in the head and still win the game.)

For me the train was pulling out of the station with FastText, BERT and similar models that used subword tokens because w/ the last generation of systems you really could show they threw out critical information in preprocessing that would make accuracy a matter of luck at best.

Depends how you use them.

Generating bullshit text off the cuff is not the only use of LLMs. LLMs can perform very well at classification, regression, ranking, coloring proper names red, and other tasks. You could, for instance, use LLMs to encode a query and documents and rank them with a siamese network, something not too different for how a conventional search engine works.

If there is one thing wrong with the current crop of LLMs it is that these can only attend over a limited number of tokens. BERT can attend over 512 tokens, ChatGPT over 4096, where a token is shorter than a word on average. It easy to process the headline of an HN submission with BERT, but I classify a few hundred abstracts of scientific papers a day. A long abstract is about 1800 words which is too much for longformer but would fit in ChatGPT if there aren't too many $10 words.

Unless you can recast a problem as "does this document have a short window in it with this attribute?" (maybe "did the patient die?" in a clinical case report or "who won the game?" in a sports article) there is no way to cut a document up into pieces and feed it into an LLM, then combine the output vectors in a way that doesn't break the "magic" behavior the LLM was trained to do.

You'd imagine ChatGPT would produce accurate results if you could tell it "Write an review of topic T with citations" but if you try that you'll find it will write citations that look for real but don't actually exist if you look them up. You'd imagine at minimum that such a system would have to read the papers that it cites, maybe being able to attend over all of them at the same time which would take an attention window 100-1000x larger.

That's by no means cheap and it might be Kryptonite for Google in that Google's model involves indexing a huge amount of low quality content and financing it by ads that are a penny a click. A business or individual might get a larger amount of value per query out of a much smaller task-oriented document set.

I see this technology becoming more of a 'content provider' rather than strictly an internet search engine. In the last few days, I have gone to Google to get answers to programming questions, do an image search for a quick pic for a presentation in addition to the usual type of internet queries. The results mostly led me to go on to another site to get the actual data, but more and more of it will be pulled into the initial page. Google has done this for years and this tech will just allow for more of it. Why visit a joke site for some quick one-liners, if the 'search engine' can just generate you 20 good-enough jokes specific to your needs?

I could imagine the interface being similar to what we have today, but with it being much better at taking in full descriptions of what you want. If you want pictures of teddy bears, it could provide search results and AI generated ones. If you want programming answers, it could link to StackOverflow or just give you an AI generated answer with an explanation. Perhaps I am looking for a lively bit of free music to add to an indie game - it could generate that too.

I feel that this will eventually end search as we know it, but it will hurt the sites that are behind the search results far more than it will hurt Google. Google (or Bing, ...) can become the one-stop-shop for so much more than it is today

The current technology will not end search as we know it. Perhaps new technology will but currently LLM and search are complimentary.
I think there are plenty of people that remain skeptical of their utility for this application.

People who want to get rich will tell you it's the next greatest thing that will revolutionize the industry.

Personally, I've been annoyed at how confidently wrong ChatGPT can be. Even when you point out the error and ask it to correct the mistake it comes back with an even-more-wrong answer. And it frames it like the answer is completely, 100% correct and accurate. Because it's essentially really deep auto-complete, it's designed to generate text that sounds plausible. This isn't useful in a search context when you want to find sources and truth.

I think there are useful applications for this technology but I think we should leave that to the people who understand LLM's best and keep the charlatans out of it. LLM's are really interesting and have come a long way by leaps and bounds... but I don't see how replacing entire institutions and processes by something that is only well understood by a handful of people is a great idea. It's like watering plants with gatorade.

It's not designed to generate plausible sounding text, it's designed to produce text that is statistically likely to be sound. It's a markov chain, but there might be multiple roots and some backpropped probabilities for which leafs should be picked. The statistical significance doesn't have to track with logic.
So what you’re saying is that they not just trained it on text, but also verified the answers and trained it in such a way that it would get a negative feedback if the model gave the wrong answer?
It got negative feedback if the model gave wrong-sounding answers, which is not the same as wrong answers.

I have seen no indication that they had anybody verify the factual content of answers in the training process, and many indications that they did not.

> People who want to get rich will tell you it's the next greatest thing that will revolutionize the industry.

Reminds me of the web3 crypto hype and this hype is the same thing that happened with GPT-3. Closed source black-box AI model hidden behind a SaaS confidently generating wrong answers as the truth.

Sounds like OpenAI (effectively Microsoft's new AI division) are selling snake-oil again.

> I think there are useful applications for this technology but I think we should leave that to the people who understand LLM's best and keep the charlatans out of it.

There are certainly charlatans, grifters and snake-oil sales people pretending and hyping about their so-called 'AI startup' when it is actually uses the GPT-3 or ChatGPT API. Another emperor has no clothes confidence trick generating garbage.

Given that ChatGPT cannot explain its own answers transparently when questioned especially when it confidently generates wrong answers means that you cannot trust its output and telling it to give you a sophisticated answer to an 'un-googleable' question is where you see it clearly trip over.

What would really 'revolutionize the industry' is an open-source LLM model which is a smaller model and more transparent than ChatGPT, like what Stable Diffusion did to DALLE-2.

Don’t mistake the fallibility of chatgpt for a problem with the entire field. It would be like saying transistors don’t have much of a future because they are too big to fit many in a device.

The Bing openai integration is already dramatically different and better than chatgpt. I’d really advise trying it before forming too many opinions. Certainly don’t mistake any experience you have with chatgpt as indicative.

> Don’t mistake the fallibility of chatgpt for a problem with the entire field. It would be like saying transistors don’t have much of a future because they are too big to fit many in a device.

Fundamentally, GPT itself and LLMs are essentially still black-box neural networks and all have the same drawbacks as them:

* More data needed to train them. Which then...

* ...Increases the size of the model (Getting bigger on each revision)

* Opaqueness (Cannot transparently explain its own decisions when it confidently generates the wrong answer.)

* Massive cost involved in training, retraining and fine-tuning it.

The best part is that you can't even give an explanation on why it is generating nonsense or why it overfitted or got confused over an invalid character or input. Little to nothing fundamental about neural networks (which is what LLMs are based on) has changed. It is essentially more of: 'Just waste more money on training it on more data.'

> The Bing openai integration is already dramatically different and better than chatgpt. I’d really advise trying it before forming too many opinions.

What I have said about ChatGPT and GPT-3 still holds true and hyping about a chatbot confidently generating nonsense and that cannot cite its own sources makes it highly untrustworthy to use. It is always eternal to the shortcomings of neural networks fundamentally; which is what LLMs use. They are great sophists and bullshit generators.

At least what needs to exist is an open-source LLM that is more transparent and is smaller than GPT-3 or GPT-4. There is a basic reason why OpenAI won't do that.

You've made a few mistakes, they are all rooted in not understanding that Bing Chat is not GPT, nor is it ChatGPT. You're stuck on LLMs while the world is moving on to LLMs as a component, not the whole solution.

And even in LLMs, it sounds like you're still seeing training/retraining as single monolithic events which are super expensive. Training is super expensive! New techniques (google LoRA; there are others) are changing that.

I hope you get into what has changed in the past few years, starting with Transformer and continuing pretty much daily. There really is a lot of innovation and improvement that is publicly documented and missing from your opinion here.

> You've made a few mistakes, they are all rooted in not understanding that Bing Chat is not GPT, nor is it ChatGPT. You're stuck on LLMs while the world is moving on to LLMs as a component, not the whole solution.

It is a GPT (Using OpenAI's one) and fundamentally it is a black box neural network that when asked to explain it's own decisions, it still cannot transparently do so. This have been an unsolved problem for decades and still overlooked by every AI hype cycle to date.

> And even in LLMs, it sounds like you're still seeing training/retraining as single monolithic events which are super expensive. Training is super expensive! New techniques (google LoRA; there are others) are changing that.

Perhaps that is why only Big Tech companies are the ones doing it for training LLMs and the so-called 'AI companies' aren't doing it themselves and still sit on their AI APIs hence why you could only name Google who can afford to foot the bill for training their LLM.

Everyone else has to sit on their APIs just like before.

> I hope you get into what has changed in the past few years...

I think you have struggled to address the other short-comings that both LLMs and fundamentally neural networks still face that I have already outlined.

Until I see a open-source LLM or some other open source solution that matches or surpasses OpenAI's GPT offerings in parameters, explainability, and is small enough in model size to fit on a smartphone then we can discuss about how this AI cycle is worth the hype. Having yet another AI API product with even larger and expensive models sitting behind a SaaS is an indication of another AI bubble.

What would it look like for a search engine or chatbot to explain its decisions?

Very few pieces of software today explain their decisions, and it doesn't seem to be a big problem for users.

This is a perfect example of the popular view on here, and in my humble naive opinion it’s completely mistaken. The point isn’t “can an LLM replace google” the point is “can robots that can speak English and use logic improve the search experience” which I think basically everyone would answer “yes” to. Complaining that it gets stuff wrong when not hooked up to a web of resources to cite is, IMO, completely missing the point.

Also OP (not so much you) is way too caught up in the “chat” aspect - that is the first exciting UX that got popular, but these are much, much more than chatbots. Pretending that they’re human/conscious/in a conversation is fun, but having an invisible partner that knows you and tailors your search results… that’s powerful.

For example, you’ll never have to add “Reddit” again, or at least you’ll only have to tell it once. An LLM can easily identify the kind of questions where you want forum posts, read thousands of posts in a second, summarize all their content, and label each link with other information that helps you decide which threads to read in full.

I can’t wait!

If the point isn't how an LLM replace a search engine, then why is Bing using an LLM to replace their search engine?

When you ask whether speaking English and using logic can improve the search experience, I wonder what you consider the most important parts of the search experience? I think many people, most of the time, might say that "accurate information" is their highest expectation, with "a pleasant conversation" somewhere below that. Delivering a plausible-sounding and pleasant answer that's completely wrong is... well, that's not a search engine I can depend on, is it?

You're hypothesizing a few things at the end that sound great! It's completely unclear whether any of those things will actually end up happening, so I think the focus on what is available today, with Chat-GPT and Bing, is more apt than a focus on what could be.

My basic answer is “they’re trying to rush stuff out the door because the people running bing have no idea what they’re doing” :) given that the things I propose don’t need any new inventions, I’d say they’re good to discuss and coming in the next few years for sure.

And I totally agree that a) a search engine that doesn’t cite its sources is useless, and b) you almost never want to chat with google like it’s a person. So you’re spot on. But the point I was trying to make is that the main use case is in stuff like automated summaries, specialized page rankings, expanding quick informal queries into longer formal-logic ones, etc.

I don't think Bing is replacing their engine with an LLM. Seems like they're complementing the engine with the LLM, basically replacing the old blurb you'd sometimes get with the LLM response.
> "accurate information" is their highest expectation

The point is, "accurate information" is hard. Google's solution is snippets and while it might be fine for some cases, it fails terribly for others. There is zero guarantee an AI-based solution would be more precise, but for sure it will be way more confident - just like ChatGPT is.

> The point isn’t “can an LLM replace google” the point is “can robots that can speak English and use logic improve the search experience” which I think basically everyone would answer “yes” to. Complaining that it gets stuff wrong when not hooked up to a web of resources to cite is, IMO, completely missing the point.

I think the complaints are more about the "use logic" point than the sources, from my limited understanding, I would not say LLMs currently use logic.

They don't need to imo. I use ChatGPT to help me find useful search keywords when I'm not exactly sure what I'm looking for. Like recently it helped me find an artist I had forgotten the name of based on his style. I think we can have both, idk
They obviously do, they just aren’t perfect at it. You can get the LLM to display (simulations of agents displaying) quite clear logical thinking in certain scenarios. For example linguistic IQ tests. Gwern has written extensively about this.

There is a general issue where AIs fail in different ways than humans, and the failures look really dumb to a human. So humans tend to ascribe that dumbness from the human scale. Instead, I’d suggest they just have a dramatically different spider-graph of capabilities to a human, and are overall more capable than the “dumb spreadsheet / parrot” narrative admits. (Definitely not human-level IQ yet, to be clear.)

Hmm interested to hear why you say that. Not to be THAT guy and this might get me banned from HN, but this ChatGPT’s response to your point; I would say that this clearly shows the capacity for logic. Certainly not first order logic built into a symbolic AI model, but definitely logic.

The start of its lengthy response:

“ The use of probabilistic logic models in LLM can lead to more sophisticated and nuanced logical reasoning. These models represent knowledge about the world in a probabilistic form, which allows the LLM to take into account uncertainty and make inferences based on probabilities.

For example, an LLM system trained on a large knowledge base might encounter a question that it has not seen before. Using probabilistic reasoning, the LLM…”

> The point isn’t “can an LLM replace google” the point is “can robots that can speak English and use logic improve the search experience” which I think basically everyone would answer “yes” to.

Can you give me 3 example queries (questions and answers or typical searches) that are clear cut wins for a search engine application?

As someone who understands how these models are built and what they do, let me just say that almost all of what you think these models can do is wrong.

For one, you can't just "hook up" a language model to some other task, or to the web. ChatGPT is specifically built and trained to have good conversations. The fact that it can sort of appear to do other things is a happy coincidence.

To do any of what you want, new algorithms need to be built, and none of that is "easy". And finally, these models take A LOT of cpu time. They are not going to be reading thousands of posts in a second without serious and expensive compute hardware backing it, and that level of compute isn't remotely feasible to give out to individual users.

Even chatGPT, which is doing a fraction of the tasks you are listing, costs millions of dollars worth of hardware a day. The only reason it exists for free is because Microsoft has donated all that time.

And because OpenAI exploits labour markets in places like Kenya that have weaker labour protection laws and lower minimum wages than in developed countries.

They had to pay someone to label data and filter the worst "content" humanity has to offer. Otherwise it would've ended up like numerous other attempts at exposing "AI" to the Internet.

So it also has a huge human cost that OpenAI is not properly accounting for (and another reason why dreaming up potential use-cases for the technology as if it will be miniaturized and become a commodity in the near future takes some wilful ignorance).

Interesting reply, thanks for taking the time to share your expertise. I definitely wasn’t considering the economics of the question, and I tend to agree with you - supporting LLM queries with ad dollars seems impossible at their current state.

But chatgpt is already pretty darn good at summarizing and communicating. By “hook up” I literally just mean feed text from the internet into the prompt followed by whatever you want it to do with it - summarize, rank, whatever. Ignoring the economics for a moment (paid search engines?) and assuming that GPT 3.5 is the very best LLM we’ll ever get for simplicity: would you still say you don’t think tweaked versions of such models would MASSIVELY improve search?

These technologies can and likely will help improve search in the future, but there is still a ton of work to be done both on how specifically to use them and also on scaleability.

There is also the business model to sort out. Right now search is primarily driven by ads, which I doubt will cover the costs of the sort of ultra-personalization that you're thinking about. Also, reducing the time you spend on a search engine or looking through results will further reduce ad revenue. However, I can see paid search engines perhaps leading to this.

So yes, eventually these models can help improve search, just not in the form that we have today. In a few years the story could well be different. I'm quite interested in seeing how Bing integrates chatgpt technology. They claim that they've created some new model on top of it that somehow links it to search results.

Kinda loose spit balling idea but couldn't you ask Chatgpt to produce a (set of) query for a search engine that would help a given person find the information they're looking for? Wouldn't "hooking up" ultimately just be a matter of translating intent to a known set of commands?
That’s a good idea but I’m guessing that using it for query expansion will only lead to marginal improvements as you are still limited by the main search engine.
> An LLM can easily identify the kind of questions where you want forum posts, read thousands of posts in a second, summarize all their content,

I question if this something that users need at the scale you're assuming. Wikipedia has existed for 20 years summarizing enormous breadth of human knowledge, with some articles having thousands of human editors. it's a boon for civilization in the way libraries are. But has it disrupted anything besides Microsoft's overpriced Encarta DVD market?

You're putting a lot of faith in computer models to provide accurate, both-sides'ed information on complex topics in a format that amounts to a soundbite.

People who want to get rich will tell you it's the next greatest thing that will revolutionize the industry.

The nice way of saying grifters.

They go where the funding is.
"Personally, I've been annoyed at how confidently wrong ChatGPT can be. Even when you point out the error and ask it to correct the mistake it comes back with an even-more-wrong answer"

That also happens with real people so... A web search also returns wrong answers, because it is not magic. It just searches through all the garbage out there. You just have to be aware of its flaws and limitations... as you do with you fellow humans.

My God, I'm so tired of this response.

It's not a person. It's software. It shouldn't be wrong just like humans.

Imagine opening your banking app and your total savings is wrong. Would you say, "It's okay, people make mistakes, too!" or would you be pissed that your bank's software is incorrect? Why are we pretending like this is any different?

Because LLMs aren't doing calculations that result in precise mathematical answers like your bank should be doing. All they are is very advanced pattern-matching machines. They match patterns, but those patterns don't always relate to accurate information.
I'm not pissed when google doesn't have a good result for my search on the first page, no.
There you go. The difference is that a human can transparently explain to you step by step how they have concluded to a given answer. Humans have always used multiple methods to explain their decisions transparently when questioned to.

AI machines and especially neural networks which LLMs are based on still cannot explain themselves and are as transparent as a black-box.

A real person would say "I don't know" occasionally.
And a really intelligent person would say "I don't know" a lot.
I don’t usually ask a random person about some topic I want sound information on. I ask an expert on that topic. If ChatGPT-like AI can’t fulfill that role (and ChatGPT usually can’t), then they’re not very useful for that.
And yet, when I google something, am I landing on an experts page, or a seoptimizer who's day job it is to write expert like looking content?

Search is absolutely like asking a random person right now. Whether I get raw hyperlinks back on a page or a chat window, the results are as good as their source data. Garbage in, garbage out.

Google is just as confidently wrong giving me garbage links as chat is as giving me garbage recommendations.

The difference is that with search you get a whole range of linked resources, and up to now (it may change with AI-generated content going forward) the style of the content usually gives enough signal to make an assessment, as well as comparing content between sites, and you learn which sites to trust.

With ChatGPT, correct and incorrect information is presented identically. You have nothing to go on except falling back to web search to fact-check ChatGPT’s output. This can still be useful as a starting point, but a world with only ChatGPT and no web search would be horrible, would overall be a step back compared to a world with only web search and no ChatGPT.

Why are we ok with “AI is equally as bad as the current bad thing?” Even then, it falls flat because the average person doesn’t understand this as well as you do. There will be some severe consequences because of this.
Just because it doesnt solve the garbage in problem, doesnt mean it doesnt solve other problems in the realm of usability.
This is why I am very concerned about people ascribing attributes to LLMs that they simply don't have. The real danger with LLMs, it seems to me, is that people seem to be viewing them as intelligent or as some sort of "truth machines". They are neither. Saying that isn't saying they aren't powerful tools, of course, but a misunderstood tool can be a very dangerous thing.
Yes, but at least with a web search I can click on a different link. If chatGPT gives you a wrong answer, where is another answer to compare it to? It would be like if wikipedia replaced web search. It's usually a good source for summarizing things, but if you rely on it as The Source, then it becomes a problem.
Not only that, but if it's a topic you don't know much about and you aren't seeing information from a variety of different sources, how would you even be able to know it's a wrong answer?
Yes, that also. Or it could be an unresolved topic with different possible answers, but how would you know if it just gives you one? If you ask about the measurement problem and it says decoherence has solved it because MWI, then you're getting short changed. There's a lot more to the debate.
"it's essentially really deep auto-complete"

This is the most accurate description I've even read.

With that that in mind... cell phones have offered a similar feature to billions of users for many years.

Those autocorrections are still frequently wrong.

so what you're saying is, that it's my time to shine, right?
Google search has been powered by a large language model (BERT) for years so we've all been successfully using LLMs for search for a while now, just not in the way you're thinking.
Because the information it gives back has to be so sanitized I'm starting to feel that if search boxes start returning LLM results it will end up more like some safety team at Google/MS is having to almost write web queries by hand.

Doesn't feel as simple as the search world where you can just up rank some approved sources, unless there is somehow a way to just generate the language from approved sources and ideas.

I think it could be useful in the followup to search queries or being smarter about using synonyms and others ways to phrase things to find better results but it reminds me of when facebook announced bots in there messenger. Lots of people tried it and showed all all these features and then they didn't really amount to much.
Perhaps tech hype cycles are more about valuations and less about utility. Everyone jumps on the bandwagon with the latest buzzwords, companies buy in. Nobody wants to be left behind. New tooling is demanded. Employees pad their resumes.

There's more to generative models than just the above, but how much of this hype cycle is substantive for end users or developers? You always had a query. Now you'll get answers in a different way.

Skeptical overall.

> Only truly practical use case I can think of is summarizing articles or writing them which makes more sense as a word processor or browser add-ons

That use case is the one that makes more sense. Given that ChatGPT frequently hallucinates the wrong answer and confidently tells you how it is correct with its inability to cite and transparently explain to you how it got to that answer tells you that it is results are untrustworthy and this AI bubble is again, pure hype created by VCs.

The only worthy AI hype that will change everything is open-source LLMs that are smaller models and are more transparent.

Anytime anything starts getting touted as a panacea I start getting suspicious. Maybe LLMs are going to have a large role in search in future, but at the moment there's so much propaganda flying around I just assume it's mostly lies.