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More generally on the Howey test, I wonder a bit about the expectation of profit.

If I asked you to give me 16oz of gold today and promised to give you 17oz of gold in the 12 months time, is there an expectation of profit?

What if the price of gold is expected to drop by 20% over the term of the loan?

The Howey test specifically talks about an investment of "money", but you have not invested any money, only gold, which is only worth what someone else is willing to pay for it.

What if I had 16oz of gold and offered to sell it to you today, then gave you the option of leaving the gold in my custody for another year, on the promise of an additional 1oz of gold after 1 year? In this case there is certainly money involved, but is it really any different to you giving me 16oz of gold that you bought from somewhere else?