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Ask HN: Is Putin eyeing Georgia next, given his poor traction in Ukraine?

4 points by bradwood ↗ HN
Lots of demonstrations in Tbilisi today got me thinking back to the South Ossetia & Abhkasia situation and its unsurprising parallels with the Donetsk and Luhansk situation in Ukraine.

Any predictions for a renewed move by Putin into Georgia's sovereign territory?

10 comments

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smt88
He doesn't seem to have the resources (or troops) just for Ukraine, so it would be surprising if he opened a new front in Georgia. Abandoning the Ukraine invasion seems very unlikely given the optics.

I think more likely scenarios are:

- allying with nearby dictators to boost his military and sphere of influence (already happening with China)

- starting to use tactical nukes

- "soft annexing" nearby territories by pushing pro-Putin candidates (similar to what the US did in Central/South America in the 20th century)

He really needs to find a cheap source of military hardware, because his biggest political liability at home is sending more Russians to die. China may end up helping with both.

bradwood
I don't see China playing ball as much as you are suggesting (but who truly knows). I think the Chinese authorities would be very hesitant to back Russia in anything but perhaps the most clandestine ways (if at all).
BoiledCabbage
I could see China using a cut out like Belarus to trade arms with - knowing they will "accidentally" end up in Russian hands.

Coincidentally enough the Belarusian leader was just in China last week meeting with the govt.

bradwood
If this happens, I find it hard to see how it'll be via Belarus given how obvious it is to the whole world that they are just Russia's stooges.
LinuxBender
AFAIK he has not actually used many trained or experienced troops on the front line yet. It's been mostly conscripts and Wagner mercs and most of those mercs are convicted felons they want dealt with, kindof a win-win usage. Hence all the weird mistakes. I think those mistakes were just to soften the battle field based on their military history.

The bigger wave of conscripts and actual troops are likely to show up in May/June after the snow melts and they are supposedly even planning to re-implement Stalin's old tactic of having mercs shoot their own troops if they retreat.

Should they succeed in Ukraine I would expect them to show up in Poland and Finland next. Maybe also Moldova but I don't know what they are doing there and I have zero idea what China will do beyond providing weapons and ammo.

PaulHoule
People like Putin usually play a long game. Russia has been undermining its neighbors and the west of the world for a long time for instance by sponsoring Transnistria and separatists in Ukraine and Georgia, right wing extremists everywhere, as well as actions like the 2014 Crimea invasion. The 2022 invasion of Ukraine seems impulsive and poorly planned and consumes resources required if they were to attack other countries but in the long term it might deter Russia from similar actions or it may build capacity to do that sort of thing.

They will keep trying to undermine Georgia but an actual attack will have to wait.

simonblack
Why would Putin be helping pro-West demonstrators? Wouldn't he be helping the sitting government against the demonstators?

I just saw a photo of the demonstrations with pro-West demonstrators being cloaked in EU flags.

Looks more like the 'Color Revolution' playbook to me.

PicassoCTs
Yeah, yeah, its all a conspiracy, and the whole population is in on it and invested in it. Thats then is called.. a democracy.. The EU/NATO just seems the best option for small countries with bad neighbours to be left alone.