Launch HN: Electric Air (YC W23) – Heat pump sold directly to homeowners

927 points by cmui ↗ HN
Hi HN! I’m Chris Mui, founder of Electric Air (https://electricair.io). We’re building a residential heat pump system. This will be an all-electric replacement for your home’s furnace and air conditioner that enables more centrally ducted installs, manages your indoor air quality, and saves you money on monthly energy bills. We also streamline purchase, finance and install by selling directly to homeowners. You can place a preorder today at https://electricair.io.

Heat pumps work by using refrigerant and a compressor to move energy against a temperature gradient. If you put 1 kWh of energy into a heat pump, you get 3-5 kWh of heating in your home. But this isn’t breaking the laws of physics because heat pumps don’t make heat, they move it around. The extra 2-4kWh gets absorbed from the outdoors, even when it is cold outside. The low pressure refrigerant in the outdoor heat exchanger is colder than the outdoor air, so it has to absorb energy. After the compressor the refrigerant in the indoor heat exchanger is hotter than the indoor air, and energy flows into your home. This happens in a continuous cycle. A great feature in this system is a reversing valve that allows the flow of refrigerant to be flipped and your heat pump becomes an air conditioner.

There’s a big push to end fossil fuel use in US homes by electrifying all end-uses, and heat pumps are a critical part of this. Space heating is 50% of the average homeowners energy consumption, and makes up 10% of overall US energy use. Recognizing the importance of heat pump adoption, the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act contains $4.3B in heat pump rebates for low and middle income families, and a $2000 tax credit that applies to everyone. Heat pumps can also save homeowners on their monthly utility bills vs. heating with natural gas, propane, fuel oil, and electric resistance. And thanks to the popularity of vapor injection systems, heat pumps now work well even in the cold climates of the Northeast.

Quick technical aside on vapor injection systems - this is an improvement to the basic vapor compression cycle. Gas from the condenser outlet is injected halfway into the compression process. This increases the compressor efficiency, increases the mass flow rate of refrigerant through the compressor, and also lowers the discharge temperature. The result is higher system efficiency, higher heating capacity, and the ability to operate across large temperature gradients (say -15F outside temp to 72F in your home) without exceeding the discharge temperature limit and damaging the compressor.

I’ve spent my career building and designing thermal systems—first in aerospace, then at Tesla working on Model 3 and Semi Truck, and most recently in vertical farming. I got really excited about residential heat pumps when I realized that we’re about to go through a huge transition where the 80M single family homes in the US replace their furnaces with heat pumps.

But the products on the market today have a number of shortcomings. The homeowner experience sucks because the integration of thermostat, heat pump equipment and air quality systems is terrible. Nothing works together well, and the best thermostats are not fully compatible with inverter driven heat pumps. In addition the process of getting a heat pump is painful, including finding a trustworthy contractor, sorting out financing, and wading through rebates. And finally contractors struggle with installs because of the difficulty of properly sizing the system, and understanding if your duct work is compatible with a heat pump

I wanted to approach home heating and cooling from a product design approach, improve the end-to-end experience for homeowners and make a product that was compelling beyond its climate motivations. Electric Air is building a thermostat as well as heat pump equipment (air handler and condenser) and a contractor web-app.

Better air quality is achieved through a...

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This is fantastic timing with natural gas prices skyrocketing!
This is interesting but many systems like it fall at the first hurdle in countries like Britain where forced air is not the norm. How are products like this supposed to work in a house that is currently optimised for radiators and combi-boilers and with no existing air ducts?
That's a great point. Our initial market will be North America where this makes the most sense. For people with radiators, you could also do an install with our wall unit. If you have a radiator + boiler system there are also a lot of air-to-water heat pump options for you today. It's an area worth exploring for future Electric Air products.
It's not designed to work in those houses. It's specifically designed for homes with ducts.

"The most common heating system in the US is a natural gas furnace connected to ductwork, with the hot air ultimately coming out of vents in each room. This heat pump is a great replacement for the furnace and air conditioner in these ducted systems."

not OP. My understanding is that situations like these really require installation of the (IMO, ugly) wall units ("mini-splits").

Current air-source heat pumps can't produce hot water at temperatures necessary to drive radiators.

It depends on your radiators and insulation. As a rule of thumb modern air-to-water heat pumps have a good efficiency up to a water temperature of 55 C. That can be enough if you have radiators with a large enough surface and no terrible insulation.
I think they can produce water at temps to support both radiators and radiant floor heat, but they can't produce the capacity/volume needed
They don’t have to be ugly! You can get mini splits in a cassette format that just looks like an air vent.

I’m not against ducted systems or anything (Most houses in the US have them). But the laws of physics pretty much guarantee that a mini split will always be more efficient. Air ducts are harder to insulate and not that good at moving heat energy compared to sending refrigerant right to where you need it.

From their website homepage:

> An optional wall unit heats and cools homes without ducts. Replace your expensive baseboard heaters and radiators with an efficient, ductless unit that blends into your home.

You can either move the air (via ductwork) or the coolant with a small insulated pipe.

The question is where do you have the exchange. The central / forced air tends to be a furnace in the basement. But its also viable to have a ductless mini-split heat pump ( https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/ductless-mini-split-heat-... ) that just moves the heat carrying fluid to a room and then have that room with an exchange.

> Ductless, mini-split-system heat pumps (mini-splits) make good retrofit add-ons to houses with "non-ducted" heating systems, such as hydronic (hot water heat), radiant panels, and space heaters (wood, kerosene, propane). They can also be a good choice for room additions where extending or installing distribution ductwork is not feasible, and for very efficient new homes that require only a small space conditioning system. Be sure to choose an ENERGY STAR® compliant unit and hire an installer familiar with the product and its installation.

> Like standard air-source heat pumps, mini-splits have two main components -- an outdoor compressor/condenser and an indoor air-handling unit. A conduit, which houses the power cable, refrigerant tubing, suction tubing, and a condensate drain, links the outdoor and indoor units.

> The main advantages of mini-splits are their small size and flexibility for zoning or heating and cooling individual rooms. Many models can have as many as four indoor air-handling units (for four zones or rooms) connected to one outdoor unit. The number depends on how much heating or cooling is required for the building or each zone. This can be affected by how well the building is insulated and air sealed). Each of the zones has its own thermostat, so you only need to condition occupied spaces, which can save energy and money.

They're not. Instead you can use air-to-water heat pumps to swap out those systems.
Yeah you would either get an air-to-water heat pump, or better yet a minisplit system where a single condenser has multiple runs of small tubes carrying refrigerant to heat exchangers in different rooms.
The holistic approach is nice to see.

There are obviously already several major players in the industry (notably, Mitsubishi, but also more "DIY"-focused brands like "Mr. Cool") offering heat pump systems with air handlers, such as this.

But this approach seems to be much more integrated in ways that actually might make a difference.

What I've observed is that getting a heat pump turns into a real science fair project for homeowners, and forget trying to integrate air quality in a good way. The proprietary communicating thermostats that come with heat pumps are really bad, and you can force an Ecobee or Nest to work with the heat pumps, but it hurts system efficiency by turning your variable speed equipment into less efficient fixed stage equipment. Lots of integration problems to be solved!
Can someone install and use it without the app?
We will have standard home integrations (Google Home, Apple Homekit, likely implemented via Matter standard). Using those you can set temperature easily, however to have deeper insight into system state, energy use, air quality, you'd have to use the app. We could also set up the thermostat so it can be used standalone - no app integration.
If the Vapor aspect works well then this might make air source heat pumps tenable in cold countries. The current crop here in the UK are costing home owners a fortune as the 3-4 kw multiplier drops to 1 below 0degC or so and hearing becomes horrifically expensive. I know a chap who was paying £1,200 a month to hear is home at the worst of this winters cold and the energy price jumps we have here.
FYI, air-to-air heat pumps are very popular in Norway. There are models that have >2 COP in -15 C, for instance Toshiba Daiseikai 9S at 2.35 at -15C, and >5 at +7C.
That doesn't sound right. They should be above 1 for much lower temperatures.
"Cold climate" air source pumps have been available for years. Even my cheap MrCool Universal has 100% output down to -5F and it is not even really a "cold climate" heat pump.
Chris, one of my biggest worries is that your startup will get acquired or go out of business and then the firmware will leave me with a $14,000 brick.

What if I want to keep using the cloud-based thermostat when your servers get shut off or moved to another system, or if something like Google Nest closing down their API happens after you've exited?

This is an expensive system with an expected long life, and I'd want some guarantees that I can control it entirely myself.

My thoughts too. Local heating/cooling should not be tied to the cloud period. If it doesn't use the normal wiring people already have it's a hard pass from me.
Maybe Europe market is ready for this.

Considering how unstable the residential electrical and internet grid is in the US (instead of being dug in, into the ground all the cables are hanging between the trees and there are constant failures), relying on that AND on the cloud for an essential service is a no-go.

the US power grid is not in any way unreliable. US residents enjoy some of the highest grid availability figures for anywhere in the world. Sure, sometimes things go horribly wrong but their system is not unreliable by design as this comment insinuates.
I live in a rural part of New England with an electricity company that everyone dislikes because it's super expensive and sometimes things go bad. Since 2010 we've had the following major outages:

* October 2011 Snow Storm - Lost power for 4 days, didn't end up being that cold

* October 2019 Thunderstorms - Lost power for 3 days, thankfully generator kept the house going

* August 2020 Tropical Storm Isaias - Caused widespread grid damage, but only lost power for 18 hours. Internet was out for 36 hours.

* August 2021 Hurricane Henri - Widespread grid damage, lost power for about 6 hours. By this point I had powerwalls. I didn't even turn down the air conditioner.

That's it - every other outage has been a few hours. And that's living in a rural area that is heavily wooded with most of the power lines above ground and often long runs close to trees. If I lived in a suburb or city those times would be even less.

The grid in the United States, despite some widespread and documented regional failures (2021 Texas, 2003 NE Blackout), is remarkably resilient.

I would say it depends on where you live. The grid in CA has (in some parts) not been reliable for 5+ years. To Chris' point below though, it's not really relevant because gas furnaces need electricity to operate, too.
A common misconception is that you can use your forced air furnace when the power is out - you can't because the blower relies on electricity to move air around. Your point on the cloud service is a good one, which is why cloud services are value-add but unnecessary for core system functionality, ie your system works if there's no internet.
In California power outages are very frequent (PG&E is now cutting off the residential power upfront, to avoid fires and associated liability).

I’ve experienced 4-5 outages last year, a couple were local, a couple were widespread. One lasted 2 days.

Fortunately I do have a small 3.2kWh battery backup power, so I can keep the refrigerator from defrosting. I do think that this is sufficient to power the air furnace as well, but I haven’t tried.

The residential internet outages also are pretty frequent, but we don’t notice these as much as power outages.

Normal wiring is terrible, though, since it only supports turning the equipment on & off. If you have a variable-speed fan and variable-speed pumps, it would be nice for the thermostat to throttle those based on the load, but it can't.

If this company has a solution for variable-speed equipment, the best thing they can do is publish an open standard. Suppose the thermostat talks to the equipment over CAN bus, for instance, using a well-documented protocol. If they go out of business, anybody can hack together a compatible aftermarket thermostat.

A lot of solar equipment is already going this way, with batteries talking to inverters over open CAN bus protocols. As one of the biggest energy loads, the HVAC equipment should get in the game too.

What do you mean? There are variable speed furnaces that can be controlled via a normal thermostat and a 4-wire thermostat setup. Like you said, though, there's no open standard so that can be an issue, but it's standard wiring.

https://www.pickhvac.com/thermostat/ (halfway down - "Communicating HVAC System")

https://www.pickhvac.com/central-air-conditioner/extras/comm... (deeper dive into Communicating vs Non-Communicating HVAC systems)

Well, that just makes it worse! OP strongly implies that there is no good variable-speed solution, but if the industry already has an assortment of products, what exactly are they even selling?!
I think you have to go thru a licensed HVAC installer to get an inverter system. These guys are DTC.
I think you're misreading the OP slightly. There's no cross-compatible system for variable equipment, which is why the OP says you can't use variable speed equipment with Nest. Nest is basically a really fancy switch only. To use variable speed equipment, you have to use your manufacturer's proprietary system. I'm not positive this is right, but I'm pretty sure it's backed up by https://www.pickhvac.com/central-air-conditioner/extras/comm...

So basically, the premise of this product is that the proprietary system they design will be nicer than the proprietary systems HVAC manufacturer's design. That's probably true, but as an owner of a Carrier proprietary system, it's totally fine.

The issue isn't that an open standard for fully variable speed isn't possible, the issue is that nearly all of the manufacturers to date have considered this proprietary (as they want to own the entire ecosystem from controls > equipment) and a purposefully boxing Nest, Ecobee, etc, out of being able to control it in order to sell more thermostats and trying to capture more value.

Only problem, their thermostats and apps really suck.

Heat pumps are basically ACs with inverters allowing them to work at partial load (i.e. 10% pr 20% or 70%). Otherwise, they are as efficient as ACs at full load.

There are few off the shelf AC thermostats that work with most heatpumps: they are usually the on/off variety.

Remotes coming with heatpumps would do the right thing, though, and there are IR blasters that can replicate those signals and integrate into your home automation system.

Huh? My Lennox basic middle America furnace already does this if I am understanding your comment correctly.
Mitsubishi heat pumps, and most others I assume, have local thermostats that communicate by remote (I assume radio waves), but do not require the cloud. This is a fine solution, as stable as wires but not tied to the cloud.
Unfortunately, they (or at least mine) communicate by IR, which is not as stable as wires – two of my rooms have very intermittent response to my IR pucks.
Exactly. I will not even buy a $100 remote-internet-controlled thermostat that relies on a cloud service [0], and I've looked for both my home and my shop.

I would not even consider buying the hardware that keeps my pipes from freezing if it depends on an internet connection.

I'm happy if there are non-critical OPTIONS available that use the internet (e.g., as another poster mentioned, available optimizations based on real-time elec rates, etc.), but if there is any key function that'll fail without an internet connection, that's immediate disqualification, hard nope, not looking anymore. Period, full stop, even if it is "free" as in beer.

OTOH, if OP can deliver a true stand-alone system and guarantees that it will never require a connection for any core function (as above, optional ok), then he'll have a large market.

[0] any remote-via-internet control function should be able to directly access my IP, static or transient. Not only are non-static home IPs actually quite durable in my experience, there are a variety of easy solutions to keep track of the home IP. Yes, some of those are cloud services, but they are not tied to any hardware.

Edit: That said, I'm ok with requiring wiring beyond the normal thermostat-HVAC wiring.

It's hard pass for you because you know what a cloud is. Many don't and you don't know what many know.
Counterpoint — I have an app for my Mitsubishi heat pump and use it all the time. It’s way more convenient and lets me hyper optimize my house. I actually don’t even use the physical ones at all anymore
Are you tied to the app?
No, my phone is wireless
Pretty sure they were asking if you could still access all the functionality currently provided by the app if it were to go away for some reason (who can see the future? It's not impossible Mitsubishi goes out of business or the app gets cancelled/pulled after some number of years)
If you lost your phone, would you still be able to manage the heat pump through other interfaces?

If the app wasn't updated for ${latest phone OS}, would you be be unable to upgrade the phone OS?

Mitsubishi heat pumps has a local thermostat that operates by remote, no cloud access needed, so if the app's servers go down it will still function.
Yes s/he is. Mitsubishi force you to use their Kumo Cloud controls, which are 1) expensive (a few kk) and 2) require cloud. Supposedly Mitsubishi is replacing Kumo with something else, but that just makes the problem worse.
you can get a converter to get Mitsu to work with any 24v AC controls PAC-US444CN-1, ive installed a few of them so the customer could use their existing Nest and Ecobee thermostats.

I'm a former diamond certified Mitsubishi installer

I've used the PAC-US444CN-1 (at our house) and fully native Mitsubishi thermostat/controls (at our in-laws). The converter is better than a simple 2-stage set up but is still not as good, in my experience, as the fully native one.

It has to translate a 2-stage signal into a fully modulating output, and it still seems to do a lot more on & off with high fan speeds than I would like or would be most efficient (as an aside, yes I have verified that the dip switches are in the correct position on the converters).

On the other hand, the unit at my in-laws tends to blow gently but consistently which is both more comfortable and more efficient.

spaceguillotine I'd love to hear about your experience as a former installer! Any chance for a DM?
Wat. First of all, I have Kumo Cloud and it did not cost thousands of dollars. It was a few hundred for the adapter, and then I paid an HVAC tech to install it. That's it.

Second of all, you aren't forced to use Kumo Cloud. Even though I have it, I still have a remote that operates the Split. No network or cloud required.

What is your plan if Mitsubishi cuts off access in 20 years or updates in a way that you're not comfortable with (like add advertisements to the panels)?
You can replace the thermostats with dumb versions.
>If it doesn't use the normal wiring people already have it's a hard pass from me.

Why? a real smart thermostat can just use the existing wiring for power and then use IP over Wifi or Matter/Thread to communicate. Way better than the crappy wiring in most people's houses for thermostat control.

Because HVAC in theory should outlive most other standards that have come and gone. Its totally fine to built on top of it, but using basic hard wiring to turn on/off is essential - even if just as a fallback. in 20 years the hvac should still be working, but will the wifi spec it shipped with? What about matter/thread?
Theres certainly a middleground between "must use existing old ass 2 wire setups" and "requires fancy always on cloud subscription"

Surely we could come up with a device that might require an electrician to run a few extra wires (or maybe even larger wires or something) and still run perfectly fine offline, for as long as the hardware functions, with some type of integrated manual controller. And of course this device could also have an internet option and an app and wifi for all of the fancy stuff.

I agree. Use standardized wiring and let me control it from a $100 smart thermostat that i can replace if it becomes obsolete.

If i want HomeAssistant integration, ill buy an HA-compatible thermostat.

I dont want an expensive HVAC system to be in a walled garden of its own.

You lose about 30% efficiency using "standardized wiring" with an inverter heat pump instead of a communicating thermostat, because running a heat pump at 33% power continuously instead of 100% power 20 minutes of every hour results in a COP about 30% higher.
Why do inverter heat pump need proprietary wiring? Everything I've seen indicates inverter and dual stage heat pumps can use standard wiring.
They don't need it, they just don't get all their rated efficiency, which is much higher than single-speed systems. Single-speed systems commonly have cooling efficiencies around 10-14 SEER, the Gree Sapphire is 38 SEER. If you ran it at only full power, it'd probably only be 30 SEER.
Disagree. There are a lot of advantages in being able to coordinate heating/cooling and general home electricity use based on stuff like weather forecasts, your electric company's rate tiers (including working around peak hours), when you are home or about to come home etc. Of course there should be a fallback mode where the system can work 100% offline, but being connected is definitely worth it.
I will not buy this without a fully unlocked everything.

This company is going to wait a few years and then charge you a shit ton for subscription to keep using your device.

No thanks, and honestly whoever goes with this is going to regret it if they don't make changes to their software.

Pick one:

- Sell the device

- Sell the software

If you do both, you're going to alienate your customers and get regulatory wrath on you. Don't emulate Apple. They're going to get their ass handed to them in the near future.

Take it even a step further and make the code AGPL. That way you know you're protected if a company decides to steal from you.

I understand the concern around lock in. There is a technical hurdle to optimized thermostat <--> variable speed heat pump interop. You have to turn the temperature error between setpoint and actual temperature into a compressor speed command and also factor in behavior such as defrost, compressor cycling limits, etc. So you have to have a communicating thermostat to fully utilize the efficiency of these variable speed heat pump systems, not just a collection of analog on/off wires.
That's totally fair and reasonable. I still will demand that it be able to function in a bang-bang mode using dry contacts, especially from a new entrant to the market, because there's a fair risk that the unit will be in my house longer than your company is in business.
This behavior is how current variable speed heat pumps operate with Ecobee and Nest. You leave efficiency on the table, but I get it provides some future proofing assurance for homeowners. Definitely something we can integrate into the board.
> I get it provides some future proofing assurance

I don't think you're getting it, and a lot of us around here want you to. If I were actively researching heat pumps (a thing most homeowners do before dropping 4-5 figures on ANY hardware), if you are locking me into your ecosystem -- or even have the appearance of locking me into your ecosystem -- your product is not getting onto any short list from me or likely anyone else around here.

All of us -- every tech person who has ever gotten into home automation in a real way -- has thrown out some hardware rendered useless by a company. We've already seen this play out. You're an unknown and so are the riskiest kind of company to buy into.

You need to get this -- deeply -- if you want to sell to this market. The pull quote above makes me want to run for the hills.

Agreed. As someone in the market for a good heat pump, I'm already turned off by this offering. I don't want more features (air quality module) that are more points of failure and complexity. I just want an efficient heat pump that'll work reliably for a long time, integrate well with HA, and won't cost a kidney to install.
This all especially true given the expected time frame a heat pump is supposed to have. No one wants to spend $14,000 for a paper weight. Whether that’s because the software disappears, spare parts can’t be found, or it’s impossible to service. Any of the above are real risks that need to be considered seriously and addressed. HVAC can also become an issue when trying to sell a house, so it’s not like trying to sell to traditional early adopters. The majority of this market is going to be very conservative.

I’d honestly just try to market to heat pump believers first who actively are looking for what they are selling. First, it’s an easier sales pitch. Second, they will be more forgiving of growing pains. Go through the 1-3 years trying to get the manufacturing, maintenance, and installation locked in before trying to sell in bulk to a larger market.

As it is, it’s just too risky for many to buy. (And for my house, it would be impossible to install).

Yes, that MAY be required for full optimization

Wonderful option to have: "Subscribe, and we'll improve your efficiency by 10%++"

OPTION

Another option would be "we'll send you a download with the latest weightings for our optimizing AI firmware for $14.95, or every month for a subscription of $49/year" whatever.

I, and most other sharp people will happily ignore you and buy a system that is 50% less efficient and twice the cost to avoid your lock-in.

I'll also happily buy and subscribe to your reasonably-priced optimization service as long as it is OPTIONAL.

Just look at the nearly violent reaction that BMW got when they suggested that their heated seats would be a subscription option.

If you want your company to die before it even gets started, keep making excuses for why you need to lock us in.

If you want a growth giant, architect it from scratch so someone can happily use it where Starlink doesn't even service, and offer extra-efficiency OPTIONS that OPTIONALLY use internet service.

And yes, open-sourcing the code would be a huge step in giving people confidence that you are serious, and that their investment has a future that is not a brick.

Yeah I wish these companies would “get it” but they never do.

Provide an open API with the option to use a cloud service. Some cloud services are great, and have way better UIs than the self hosted stuff which I would gladly pay for. But take away the option to go self hosted and I lose all interest. If a device can’t be controlled locally you don’t really “own” it, you’re just renting it from someone else.

98% of consumers who would buy a heat pump have no idea what an API is.
That's quite generous to estimate that 2% of the population knows what is an API !

My first guess would be more like 99.98% don't know about APIs

But yes, that 2% or whatever is an important set of leaders

This is not strictly true.

Mr. Cool has a 2-Ton heat pump (Designed to work with existing ducting) that can operate off of a normal non-communicating thermostat. It still hits 19 SEER and does a lot of that optimization on the controller side. And when it comes to mini splits there are lots of them that will work with a normal thermostat.

I know this, well, because I’ve spent many countless hours trying to find something that will work with Z-Wave and not a proprietary communicating system. Granted it might be less efficient but efficiency is way less important than having the ability to do that. The only exception I would consider is if the communicating thermostat was fully open and had a decent API that worked without Internet access.

This doesn't seem at all worthy of anything proprietary, though -- a simple RS-485 or 10BASE-T1L protocol and a page of docs would do the trick.

And if you build this, you can also sell the same hardware plus a BacNET or MODBUS gateway for a bunch of money to the commercial building management types :)

Or you could support existing commercial 0-10V thermostats.

Upvoted,

BACnet already exists as an ISO standard: https://www.iso.org/standard/37298.html https://bacnetinternational.org/

The example application in the Ethernet Alliance one-pager on single pair Ethernet is HVAC: https://ethernetalliance.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/EA_T...

FWIW, if this were my startup, I would probably use 10BASE-T1L. The programming model is simple, and cloud or other “smart” integration is natural if the system already uses IP. For that matter, one ought to be able to support wired 10BASE-T1L and wireless Matter/Thread thermostats without much duplicate effort.

This could be prototyped on a BeaglePlay :)

FWIW,

BACnet allows multiple PHY implementations, including 802.3

I suspect that 802.3.cg is also kosher, but haven't looked in detail. It's been 5 years since I looked seriously at whether BACnet was the correct solution for a product family.

Single pair Ethernet is indeed cool tech.

That's just not true.

1. 99.99999% will never care about code, open sourcing it etc. All consumers need is to have a guarantee it will work in case company is out of business or there is no internet. It doesn't matter how that guarantee will look like.

2. Sell device OR software is the exact reason most tech is so bad. Doing one of two is 10x easier than doing both, and results are 10x worse. If you do both you actually have a chance to do something nice.

I totally get this concern. Any good piece of critical home infrastructure should be able to operate without the cloud or an internet connection. Following this logic the thermostat + heat pump combination can operate fine without the cloud. You leave some optimized behavior on the table like demand response and weather response, but everything else will work (you'd have to manually enter your TOU rate plan to get that energy optimization).
that's good to hear, I'd make sure it's mentioned in the FAQ at the bottom.
Would your company be willing to provide an open-source local-first websocket-based integration with https://www.home-assistant.io/ or use the new Matter + Thread standard to provide it for everyone?

If that's available, this would be my top choice as I'm actively shopping for all-electric heat pumps

Or the company could at least leave it easy to hack :)
Implement with a swappable compute module?
We need an entire industry of 'appliance based Rpi's to be able to act as modules in a standardly compute plug-in-form factor (just like blades) with a unit preloaded with a config and just swap out inter connects - ich that we have an appliance hub, the solar/whatever input pushes power and the distributor determines where to push or halt the power - with a selector that tells me the input costs, and output draws, such that it can have a system to auto switch to best performance.

Honywell missed the mark on the importance of thermostats on the economy.

My dream is something equivalent to a Dumb TV + Chromecast.
It's something we'd definitely consider. Is the desire to have thermostat control via any third party?

edit - The current plan has been Matter/thread Homekit + Google Home integration. We can expose at least temperature control via this to everyone.

I think the desire would be a locally accessible API so that anyone could build an integration to it.
Consider it is as a competitive advantage.

An API that is public, well-documented, and easy for other systems to securely integrate with would mean that customers get the integration they want. If someone builds a better way to utilize your system, then you just got value-add on your product at basically zero cost.

Amazon can hook Alexa into it. Google can hook their Home thing into it. And whatever comes next, whatever doesn't even exist today, should have an easy time integrating, continuing to add value.

Completely agree on this point. I've worked over half a decade with smart home systems, and it's just so much easier (and cheaper!) to integrate well documented, open APIs (and please make them secure, I have nightmares of all the open, unencrypted UDP based alarm systems) that is purely local. This means we would highly recommend these products even tho we made zero money off them, and customers would actually prefer them as well - it's well beyond the time of people naively buying this stuff, and they know that clouds can just "go offline".

What also can't be underestimated is the tinker community. Many people in the smart home business are tinkerers themselfs; create a great product for them and they will inevitably try to use it at their job. But this really isn't only applicable to integrators, really.

Yes, and particularly in a local/LAN/no internet manner. Local push or local pull.
(not OP, but I also use HA)

The important bit is to have an open API that can be connected to from the local network (or via Matter + Thread, etc), and via a cloud. Then anyone can develop a client. This also has benefits in UX: the latency to update is much lower than cloud based polling, since that's almost always rate limited.

The closer anything is to the bottom of the chart here, the better. When buying something as expensive as a heat pump, I wouldn't even consider something that isn't at least local polling:

https://www.home-assistant.io/blog/2016/02/12/classifying-th...

That being said, I'm not opposed to value add things via cloud services. Want to get the weather via a cloud service, even if that changes the schedule? Totally fine! But ultimate control must be local.

Agreed, this isn't a $100 thermostat that I can just pull off the wall and replace - we're talking an expensive investment with a 10+ year lifespan. That said, even for my thermostat not being bound to the cloud was an important reason I went with Emerson/Sensi (the only value-add I lose if their cloud goes down is usage reporting, everything else I can do with the native Homekit support).
My desire would be to have the possibility of thermostat control (entirely) via first party, me. Odds are I would never even touch it, but the fact that I couldn't would be a dealbreaker for something like this.
I consider Matter support to be vital for any product that’s “connected”. You can keep all the specialised features limited to your app but basic controls should be exposed via a standard protocol like Matter so I can use any Matter controller to set the temperatures and such.
HA user here as well, having a non-locked down API at minimum (i.e. not actively trying to stop folks using it), through to an open and documented api (would be great), through to open firmware (would be best) and or releasing your own integration for HA would likely get you those kinda customers.
Also, I'm in the market for a new AC/heater - so have been looking.

Your specs are in kbtu, but at least for cooling I'm used to tons; I have 2x4.5ton units, and I think that's ~120kbtu, so I wouldn't be able to get just two of your biggest units?

That would be 108kbtu, but you are likely oversized. With proper duct configuration including ACCA Manual D calcs and air sealing, you will most likely be more than fine with 96kbtu. Most systems (even in very nice houses) are just sort of thrown in rather than actually calculated, and then they are installed sloppily with a lot of leakage and only roughly resembling the design in at least a few locations. I do these calculations for a living, and would recommend presuming that will be the case until proven otherwise. Obviously get hard numbers before full commitment.
If people have a preferred way of integrating their devices, like home assistant, I'd want to make that possible for people to do with Electric Air.

Re the sizing question - this is a part of the site that needs improvement. 12kbtu is 1 ton. The 48kbtu system is a 4ton system, but rated at 5F, if you're in a more temperate climate, two of these will likely have plenty of capacity for you. It's also likely that your current system is oversized.

As someone about to be in the market for something like this, propriety lockout is a complete deal breaker for me.

/2¢

The good news, at least, is that almost anything will work. You don't need full Matter support for Home Assistant folks to be happy. The bare-minimum, local REST api built on a Monday by an intern will do it. Someone will write the Python code to fully integrate it. I get that there would be some security concerns there, but you get my drift.
If worried about security concerns, just provide a common port interface (RJ-45/RJ-11) on the unit with a simple, well-documented, serial-based protocol on RS485/RS232. You can sell an add-on device to bridge that to Ethernet/simple API, and easily replace/recall that inexpensive module if there are issues.

The hackers will do what they want to anyway, and they'll implement cool interfaces/HA plugins/controllers on RPis or ESP32s for free. Someone will get enterprising and package a pre-built/programmed ESP32 unit that makes it plug-and-play for nerdy, but less capable users, and your company can avoid any liability from users using an 'unsupported' add-on.

I would like to be able to add it to HomeKit without it ever phoning home once. Matter + Thread help make that a possibility.
I think going with Matter would give you the best bang for your buck as you would get virtually every major smart home hub system.

You would still be able to do more with your own app as matter will probably mainly support the lowest common denominator across your category.

For me the goal is 100% local control. I found out the other day that I couldn't turn my 8sleep mattress on because a guy down the street struck a fiber line. My bed was basically a $4k brick as soon as the internet went down.

Look at it this way, it saves you money in server costs and performs much better.

Hey, that happened to me too this weekend! Do you also live in Ingleside in SF?
The desire is to have any control/knowledge you'd want to have as the creator/developer. I want to be my own mechanic, and if I'm not that mechanic I want to be able to have anyone be that mechanic.

Do you want to know what the active airflow rate is? I want to know what the active airflow rate is. Do you want to know power consumption? I want to know power consumption. Do you have a way to write unique schedules/programs that get executed on the heat pump? I want a way to write unique schedules/programs that get executed on the heat pump.

Context: Full-Stack Software Engineer (worked at a few start ups including Bird Rides). Active Home Assistant user and community-run integration creator (Linked Lovelace)

The incredible part about a company like yours is the ability to do hardware at scale. There's no reality in which I'm safely and cost-effectively building my own Electric Heat Pump, or television, or [cool product here].

Companies that make it easier for me to do my own things stand out.

If you don't want that for the standard customer, fine. Provide some way to open up the device and trigger dev mode, or manually upload firmware, or OTA update firmware.

Side notes:

- a failed kickstarter I joined shipped out their original product with bad firmware and no way to do a physical firmware update without destroying the product, so they tanked instantly despite having a great hardware setup. Despite their failure, I and a few others opened up our products and manually flashed custom firmware onto it to make use of the product we bought

- I exclusively buy LG Televisions now due to their usage of Web OS (has a local-first [HA Integration](https://www.home-assistant.io/integrations/webostv/)) which used to be hackable with https://rootmy.tv. With that, my TV runs custom Linux software that controls lights just like [Phillips Hue Sync](https://www.philips-hue.com/en-us/explore-hue/propositions/e...) but free/open-source and no additional hardware. Compare that to Samsung which is like 40% ads now?

- I don't mind using a voice assistant, steal my ideas Tim Apple. I hate the part where the request goes (phone -> router -> cloud server -> router -> local server -> light bulb) instead of (phone -> router -> local server -> light bulb) or worse (phone -> router -> local server -> router -> cloud server -> router -> local server -> light bulb).

EDIT: my markdown is showing, I should stick to lurking

Speaking of heat pumps and granular control, I recently figured out that some Midea heat pumps (usually sold rebranded to various brands) contain two interfaces to get and set detailed information:

1) Detailed diagnostics i.e. RPMs, feeds, speeds, currents, temps etc can be read from the high voltage signal line between the indoor and outdoor unit - there is an official tool (search "Dr. Smart Midea" on YouTube) that does this. If you look in the right places, there is a PowerPoint with a schematic of the PHY that you need to interface with this using a LV isolated controller

2) The outdoor unit can be driven manually using the same tool using an i2c port that is on the PCB on the outdoor unit

I have the new generation of their Dr. Smart tool, which I haven't had the time to thoroughly test or document. If there is interest I will likely try to reverse engineer and document these protocols properly.

> "I want to be my own mechanic, and if I'm not that mechanic I want to be able to have anyone be that mechanic."

> "Do you want to know what the active airflow rate is? I want to know what the active airflow rate is. Do you want to know power consumption? I want to know power consumption. Do you have a way to write unique schedules/programs that get executed on the heat pump? I want a way to write unique schedules/programs that get executed on the heat pump."

There's one feature of this diagnostic interface that I really really like. It allows you to "drive" the hardware of the unit manually, like Program Auto mode on a camera. You can manually set the frequency of the compressor and fan, and the control board will continue to enforce safeties.

I haven't tried yet, but something I really want to try to implement myself is "frequency lockout". This is a common feature on commercial variable frequency drives. I noticed that under some operating conditions, the unit vibrations resonate with the building and create unpleasant sounds - I'd like to program it to never dwell on that frequency and skip over it.

> The desire is to have any control/knowledge you'd want to have as the creator/developer.

While I was exploring this, I had this in mind constantly. I definitely had this diag interface in mind when I was selecting a unit.

Can you provide any more details on the I2C interface on Midea units?

I found some sparse documentation on Midea's (and rebadged units) Modbus-esque protocol over RS485 (aka XYE connectors), and I control it via an ESP32 on HA. From the indoor unit, the diagnostic data I could reverse engineer is limited to temp sensors (intake, indoor coil, outdoor ambient) and basic running modes. I believe the outdoor unit also has a modbus/485 that has more info, and obviously the signal wire passes some comms between the two, but Midea doesn't make this stuff public.

The point is to not have your company as a single point of failure for the thermostat. So yes, integrate into a wider (open) ecosystem, and that problem is addressed.
My company took GP’s suggested strategy and got an incredible community response. Really resonates with the high-end residential market, both DIY and DIFM (pros / CEDIA).
Chris, I think there's a lot more here to uncover. Most of your competition has no sensitivity, and almost no openness, about these aspects. I think this could become a really important part of your go-to market, but also a differentiator vs other products.

I'm a VC since recently, but have been a tech guy for a long time. Feel free to ping me if you'd like to discuss it further. $HN_username at gmail.

For me, it's just peace of mind. I need to know that if cloud servers go down, or even my internet goes down, my house still works. My Nest thermostats are currently cloud-only (the only parts of my house left that are), and I had to write a script to never update them exactly on the hour. That's when their API is very likely to 500; I'm guessing because most people have automations trigger on the hour.

I guess I can sum it up like this: I only want to deal with my own problems in my free time in my own home.

If you support home assistant then I am far, far more likely to purchase this. My wife and I are buying a house sometime over the next year and one of my higher priorities is getting a heat pump. At the same time though I also refuse to use cloud based services and instead prefer to run my own home assistant installation.

You should consider this a huge marketing opportunity- the home assistant people are obsessed with perfecting HVAC (half of these people have their own weather stations) and are also the kind of geeky first adopter who will push useful tech on all their friends. It's also not a small community, as the subreddit alone has over 222k people on it.

https://old.reddit.com/r/homeassistant/

I just preordered and I will echo this.

On track to replace my gas furnace in the next few years, this sounds awesome, but HA integration would be very highly desired.

If I'm gonna invest in a heat pump for the long term, I don't want it committed to any software technology that may be obsolete in 10 years. I want it to use something so dead stupid simple that anything in 50 years can still operate it without a lot of work.

The simplest example I can think of is MIME (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIME). It can be embedded in basically any transport type. It can encode anything you want (binary, UTF8, etc). It is very old, stable and well-tested. It is fairly trivial to implement a limited instruction set of.

Transport security, authentication, authorization, etc, are nice, but not nearly as important to me as a future-proof interface to my heat pump. Give me the option to enable an admin port and just run a single unsecured connection with a basic dumb text protocol, and I can hack together a client in 30 minutes in any programming language. It's not fancy but it will work forever.

I agree on the point of not wanting to end up with a brick due to obsolete software. Note though that heat pumps typically last 10-20 years.
What happens to them after 20 years?
This is extremely disappointing, given their price point.

I've seen an oil furnace still running after 50 years with just basic maintenance. Did it cost 2-5 times as much in inflation-adjusted dollars as a heat pump does now? No.

https://www.evergreenenergy.co.uk/heat-pump-guides/how-long-...

I don't see why a heat pump wouldn't run for a long time. I imagine many people want to replace old heat pumps because newer ones are more efficient.

But otherwise this is quite old and widely available tech, it should be possible to replace individual components that break down.

IMO I would prefer a Bluetooth thermostat that once paired, you don't have to login again. One thing that really annoys me about home "smart" devices is arbitrarily being logged out and having to remember passwords etc. and I don't see a reason I need to be "logged in" to control my thermostat. Also I don't want it to stop working when your servers are down... (had this happen the other day with my garage door opener sigh...) If you want internet connectivity, it should connect to some hub to bridge the Bluetooth to the web account.
I'd be careful catering to everyone asking for everything but the kitchen sink. Creating a non-cloud capable system is dumb.

If you have customers like commenter above maybe put in a clause in the contract that says they will receive a partial refund if/when there is an acquisition event during the warranty period and bump up their price by 20%.

> Creating a non-cloud capable system is dumb

No, you haven't understood. It will be cloud-capable. They're asking that it's not cloud-only.

No, you don't understand. Making it non-cloud-capable incurs a cost.

And there is no they, the commenter is a single individual.

"As someone about to be in the market for something like this, propriety lockout is a complete deal breaker for me." - StrangeATractor

"Would your company be willing to provide an open-source local-first websocket-based integration with https://www.home-assistant.io/ or use the new Matter + Thread standard to provide it for everyone?" - daredoes

"Most of your competition has no sensitivity, and almost no openness, about these aspects. I think this could become a really important part of your go-to market, but also a differentiator vs other products." - simonebrunozzi

"I would like to be able to add it to HomeKit without it ever phoning home once. Matter + Thread help make that a possibility." - X-Istence

They.

Yes this is HN what do you expect, of course everyone and their grandma here is gonna want a fully unlocked, open source and free as in freedom fries product.
I expect to be able to refer to those people as "they".
> Creating a non-cloud capable system is dumb.

For a system that absolutely doesn’t need a “cloud” to operate?

But this is my second concern.

First is availability of replacement parts after the get bought out and they shut off the servers.

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I mean, aside from the fact that you misunderstood the whole point, nobody ever paid 20% extra for a heating system which didn't have cloud connectivity. In fact, the whole idea that there's something wrong with a heating system which doesn't require an internet connection is so incredibly bizarre that I can only wonder if you're someone who came out of a time machine.

Lastly, a partial refund does fuck all to compensate for the fact that you have a multi-tonne brick in your house that has perfectly functioning hardware but broken software (because the server it used to talk to is gone). It also doesn't compensate for the wasted resources.

I also would appreciate a local-only user experience.

I'd also be concerned about dealing with "cannot find server" alerts popping up every time I use it.

Please also be careful about selling to incumbents without a strong guarantee (ie contractual penalties) your product will stay in market for many years.

I know smoke detectors and a couple other crappy home goods have been fixed by scrappy upstarts, sold to the losers for <100M, and then shuttered to avoid pivoting the existing business. Heartbreaking lost progress every time it happens.

1. There's a plugin for WeeWX that will happily fling readings from a weather station to my RainMachine sprinkler timer, so perhaps you could still support weather response as long as the user ran their own weather station.

2. The thermostat should support at least as much local control as the REST-ish API on the Venstar ColorTouch series.

Crazy idea:

Pressure plates in the streets which are pressed when cars drive over them - pushing fluids through your coils, but connected to multiple units on either side.

Harvest the kinetic energy of cars passing through the streets to apply pressure to pumps that feed fluids through the system, capturing that energy in a dynamo way?

Put these plates in every high trafficked area. Piping the pumping action from parking garages to freeway exits and shipping ports which roll off weight from water to street and pump a f-ton of fluid based on vehicle traffick and weight.

Make smaller installations... make an adapter interface to railway. heavy as cars on trains constantly hitting the pump valves. (yes we still need to deal with the bureau assholes in that industry... Im talking engineering)

I like the out of the box thinking! Unfortunately I think this one doesn't quite pass first principles. Any pumping action from the vehicles would be extra work they have to perform, so you just shuffle the energy expenditure from your local heat pumps, to a fleet of vehicles.
Aren’t the cars already performing that work, just letting the energy dissipate into the road surface instead of going somewhere?
It takes more energy to drive a car through mud than on pavement. The same principle would apply here.
No. The cars would be doing a little extra work. Imagine if you did it with half-filled hoses of water going in a loop. The car tires would be pushing the water through the hose, adding drag. The energy cost would come from the gas or electricity of the car.

It's like the usual analogy I used to use for content mills or adtech: it's like setting up wind farms along the interstates. The wind from the trucks creates free energy! Awesome, right? Except that those trucks are no longer drafting off each other quite as much...

(And I say "used to use" because it used to be a small tax, a bit of an extra nuisance here and there, and people largely felt like it didn't really cost anyone anything. Now it's more obviously expensive, like making the entire roadbed out of little rolling wheels that charge generators, so you have to "drive" 80mph in order to progress at 50mph...)

For a similar reason why riding a bike through sand is more difficult than on flat tarmac, this will require additional energy and you will pay for it in locally burned petrol. Moreover, it will be less efficient than if you just burned that fuel in a power station.
I can already see the "Avoid bumpy roads" option right next to the "Avoid tolls", "Avoid ferries", ...
I agree with this. I would rather have it automated without cloud functionality. I think people on HN just like hacking lol. But when it comes to appliances and cars I would rather not mess with their code and break them.
You can either go using open source protocols at first or at least guarantee open-sourcing most of it in case of leadership change. For reuse.

I'd go starting with it and let a community build by itself around it, tho.

I'd want to see a guarantee of "We will either keep running the servers forever, maintaining all current features, or we will opensource all the server side code, so you or someone else can keep running it".

I'd want the code handed over to a third party to guarantee this (so the company can't walk back on their promise).

Statically there is a great chance the people that would guarantee will be replaced upon failure or success in an early state startup.
If the server code is too complex, at least give me an OpenAPI spec (or equivalent) that the server must adhere to, so I can spin something simple up on a Raspberry PI to solve the problem myself.
It'd be super helpful to mention the total cost will be close to $14k on the $100 pre-order page or at least somewhere near the top of the homepage. Also probably one of the implicit reasons this comment got upvoted.
Yeah, not a bad idea to place pricing (or a link to it) on the preorder page, in addition to main page.
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The software is certainly a concern, but I would also heavily emphasize the ability to get spare parts and service quickly. If your heat goes out in the middle of winter you don't want to wait weeks for spare parts, or be unable to get them at all if the company goes out of business.
Yes, making spare parts and service work is super important. We'll likely set up regional distribution points for spare parts so anything critical can be easily sent next day.
What about labor? I'm pretty handy but there are definitely parts of my HVAC system where I'd be unable/unwilling to DIY it. I currently have a local HVAC contractor on-retainer for same-day emergency appointments - and honestly I don't think I'd be willing to consider anything less since my current heat pump is my exclusive source of heating in this house.

I'm in a temperate climate so there's little actual danger, but the idea of freezing/roasting my butt off for multiple days to wait for parts/labor is deeply unattractive.

Yeah, good question. The system is not meant to be DIY. The same contractor that does install also offers service. Logistics for replacement parts is important we will have quick, easy access for contractors.
Have you worked on creating a network of qualified contractors? In my region, there are lots of contractors who are little more than unreliable DIYers, especially in the mechanical space.

My hesitancy is in the ongoing service. I’ve looked into geo-coupled heat pumps but the lack of qualified contractors locally deterred me.

How would you ensure that spares are available in the event a model is discontinued or the company shuts down? It’s likely there will be few parts or trained techs in that case.
Just buy an LG heat pump. They have cloud capabilities, though you have to install a separate module for that.
I have the same question, but on the hardware side. Since HVAC is critical infrastructure for a home, where will replacement parts be in a decade?
Wait, is this not going to have the usual "pair of wires you short to turn it on" feature of every furnace made so far? That's the ultimate control for when all the cloud features disappear and would be a deal-breaker for me.
FWIW: the "cloud based" part is the flexible bit, it's the fixed equipment that you're stuck with for two decades. I see the problem as exactly the opposite: I could in principle switch from a Carrier to a Lennox to a Nest to an EcoBee in probably 10 minutes, but I can't, because all the equipment manufacturers are shipping their own garbage with closed protocols.

So I had to fight with a contractor to get them to install our fancy new heat pump in "traditional dumb thermostat" mode, and then handed them the Nest box (which doesn't speak Carrier-ese) and put it in the contract that it had to work. It took them several hours extra to do things the "portable" way. They were absolutely not prepared even though the manufacturer claims this works just fine.

So... I think there's absolutely a spot in the market for an Electric Air that can make this work cleanly. The existing HVAC players are really, really bad at this.

Existing established companies offer centrally ducted heat pumps. You can purchase them direct, and are even sold by your big box home improvement stores. (search for "ducted heat pump)

They are generally contractor only as homeowners generally can't DIY the 240v electrical and lineset hookup. What exactly is being improved upon by your startup?

A few major improvements - (1) Purchasing experience, we'll connect you with a local contractor, arrange financing and help with rebates. (2) HEPA filtration, fresh air intake and humidity control fully integrated into the system, actuated off PM2.5 and CO2 sensors in the thermostat. (3) A smart thermostat that is optimized for operation with a variable speed heat pump, and reduces your monthly bills. (4) Help for the contractors in the form of a web app to do load disaggregation for heat pump sizing and figure out if the existing ducts can be used for the install. This is something a lot of contractors need an effective tool for.
I'm really not sure how any of this is worth the extra ~$8k in price difference. Not saying there aren't people out there willing to buy but it's not for me.

1 - I already have a local contractor and financing shouldn't be a reason it costs more. 2 - This is ~$500 and I already own a air purifier. 3 - This is ~$200 and I already own a thermostat. 4 - I can't speak to the value in this but in my case I don't have central ducts.

Are you considering following in the footsteps of Project Solar? I've received 20 quotes from other solar companies like Solar Run as well as local solar companies, and they're quoting me around $3-$6/watt. This price includes their sales commission. Project Solar, on the other hand, eliminates the middleman, allowing us to purchase their system for just $2.2/watt. Those $3-$6/watt quotes didn’t make long-term sense to us. Project Solar made financial sense to us.

As a VC-backed startup, it's worth checking out their business model.

This is a big deal because if you can beat the rates of your competitors and guarantee a quality workmanship, then that takes away the 100+ hours we spend on sourcing quotes and negotiating better prices.

Here’s a story about what happens when you DON’T spend 100+ hours sourcing multiple quotes. You end up with a $36,000 heater + air conditioning unit where the installer caused a leak to occur on on the second floor. We were so desperate for cold air that we didn’t have time to get 20 quotes, but the 5 other quotes we did get ranged from $48k to $64k.

If you can save us that 100+ hours of time and give us a cheaper deal while guaranteeing workmanship, then I’m sold.

We’re getting really really really tired of overly inflated prices and the negotiation process.

First -- good luck with this!

> Purchasing experience, we'll connect you with a local contractor, arrange financing and help with rebates.

Hopefully constructive feedback: I replaced 2 of our residential furnaces within the last few years, in two separate transactions with two different vendors. I can say that this pitch doesn't resonate as an improvement because vendors already make this turnkey.

You call a furnace/air conditioning company, they come out and recommend a unit. You sign their financing thing, they come out the next day and install. I interacted with a single primary person (on-site) at each company. Cost aside, it's actually one of the more pleasant buying experiences of any major home improvement.

Finally, I can tell you who installed the ($$$$$) units but I definitely could not tell you who made them. Branding might be tough unless you do the installs yourself.

Thanks for the feedback. If you feel comfortable saying, what region are you in? I think where you might start running into friction is if you want a heat pump vs a furnace. There's a lot of variation between local markets in terms of heat pump install competence.
I’m in the southeastern US, USDA Zone 8.
I agree with runako. I suspect that you are going to have a hard time targeting areas where heat pumps are already common for cooling.

I'm in Florida. We got our A/C replaced a few years ago. Got quotes from three companies with varying ranges and the one we chose knocked it out in a (long) day. Including various "side-jobs" such as running a new electric line with a larger gauge, installing a hurricane pad, removing the loopback with the water heater, and lifting the air handler into the attic.

Total cost was under $8k. None of the quotes, including for name-brand units, were above $12k. $18k for an unknown name seems just right out to me.

HVAC engineer here - this looks great Chris. How are you doing the humidity control out of interest? I've done a few datacentres that won't touch ultrasonic humidifiers because they generate dust in areas with hard water. Less of an issue in resi but perhaps something to consider. Also, are you doing energy recovery for your fresh air intake? If you're ducting both intake and exhaust/spill, is there any opportunity to direct the exhaust/spill air back through the external condenser on the way out to get some extra efficiency?
In addition to the software concerns above, I would have severe reservations about the ongoing maintenance of the system.

How would maintenance be handled? There are a large number of contractors in my area that can service the major brands. Would maintenance come from the company itself, or via third party partners? If third parties, what if they prove unreliable? Will there be enough diversity in providers to give me choice?

More importantly, what happens if the startup is acquired or shuts down? This is an expensive kit that, depending on system sizing, costs as much as a car. I need this type of system to work for years, with high availability of parts and labor, and replacement as-required.

Going with a new company in this space seems deeply risky. And yeah, the existing manufacturers don't play super nicely with smarthomes and cloud-based control and whatnot, but it's far from enough of a pain to offset the risk IMO.

Those established companies don't have units with smart thermostats that get bricked if the company goes out of business.
Who are you partnering with to design/manufacture your air handler and condenser units?
So the difference in cost between natural gas and ElectricAir is ~ 400/yr. And it costs $14,000 to install the ElectricAir system. It will take a very long time to break even. It will be very difficult to convince people with current working natural gas system to switch over.
Unless the ruling changes and one won't be able to install fossil fuel based heating, like in EU soon.
Sure but his target market is North America, where I don't think there is too much danger of dropping fossil fuel heating anytime soon.
I see an “App” section, but it’s pretty light on details.

Is the plan for it to be cloud driven (both app and thermostat connect to a remote server) or will there be a local network API? Zigbee/Thread?

I can see some real value in a system that is fully accessible to a home automation platform.

Really cool and interesting. I definitely think the market is there for this.

I'm betting that your biggest hurdle will be post-purchase. If I remember correctly, Tony Fadell talks about how hard it was to disrupt the contractor model when building Nest. People often just bought whatever thermostat their contractor recommended, and those contractors were incentivized to push them towards specific brands. They beat this by just making the product super easy to install by the consumer and cutting out the contractor all together (something I doubt is feasible with a heat pump).

Maybe that won't be a problem with the DTC model considering the contractor is only brought in post-purchase, but I wonder if this really takes hold if competitors start trying to corner local installers. Good luck!

> They beat this by just making the product super easy to install by the consumer

I think it was more than that, I cannot possibly overstate how stupidly better the design/UX was compared to alternatives. In my home I spent years looking for a replacement for the ancient, round thermostat with a mercury switch. That thermostat is a marvel: you spin the dial with instant visual feedback, and there is an off/heat/ac switch. That's it! The Nest just added networking.

Those are beautiful looking units. It's a cool idea to focus on giving something very pedestrian and utilitarian a nice cosmetic overhaul.

I just replaced radiators with a heat pump install. I had a few questions about your units: What are "backup heating strips?" They're mentioned in passing when talking about cold weather, but I imagine there is some meat here. Also, even though many heat pumps work in cold weather, their efficiency drops. Where is the break even point? Also, what is the sound level of the condenser unit? It looks like you only list sound levels for the air handler.

>"backup heating strips"

Big resistive elements sitting in the air handler. Think big toaster oven coils that are used when the outdoor temperature drops too low for the heat pump to handle the load.

In the context of heat pumps, a "backup heating strip" is a resistive heating element - electricity goes in, heat comes out just like an old electric heater. They're generally used during defrost cycles for the external air handler in cold weather, or to provide a temporary thermal boost when the heat pump is having performance trouble e.g. when the exterior temperature is near the bottom of the heat pump's operating range.

More detail at https://carolinacomfortsc.com/hvac/what-are-heat-strips/ (no affiliation, they were the first authoritative return from my web search).

Whole-house heating with resistive electric heating is going to get expensive, quickly. If they're serious about installing these in cold weather climates, they should have more information about the cut over temperature and the efficiency of the heat pumps at those temperatures.

Just for context, my heat pumps cut over around 40-45 degrees to gas-based heat.

You have an older system. New systems can provide 100% rated capacity well below freezing. Mine is -5F and not specifically a "cold climate" unit. The unit in OP seems to offer 100% nameplate capacity at 5F.
These are brand new heat pumps. I don’t think it’s possible to have high efficiency at cold temps because of the need for a defrost cycle. I just check and mine are around 2 COP at 8F and 5 COP at 40F.
It is not clear why your heat pump cuts over at 40 degrees if it still has COP of 2 at 8 degrees. Presumably a cost-effectiveness calculation if gas is cheap in your area. If you had heat strips instead of gas, the "cut over" temperature would be much lower. If your unit is capable of operating at full capacity below 8F, it would likely only use resistive heating below 5F. For most climate zones, that is fine and your unit does not sound like one specifically deemed a "cold climate" heat pump, the which now regularly achieve full rated output down to -15F. Of course, it's only rarely that cold even in "cold climate" zones so operating down at a COP of 1 for these short durations is not a real problem. The impetus for systems designed for lower temperature operation is not really aimed at those with cheap gas but at those living where heat pumps were previously only feasible for heating if using much more expensive ground source systems. Achieving year-round heat with only the heat pump eliminates the need for a furnace so you have to include this missing gear and installation cost in your analysis.
Yeah, I'd like to see those figures too, and I think they might surprise you (and me). I don't have figures or references to hand here, but as I understand it modern heat pumps should be good down at least a little way below freezing. They're widely used and popular in Norway, for example, and the Norwegians aren't exactly new to cold weather.
High efficiency heat pumps with built-in defrosters (or "heating strips") can often provide full heating capacity (ie: 48,000btu for a 4 ton unit) down to -12f, with reduced output at even lower temps. The COP efficiency drops quite a bit though and it will eventually get to a point where it is essentially as energy efficient as a resistive heater. Whether it's more efficient than using gas or not is a difficult calculation based on your gas price, heat pump COP temperature curve and electricity price. If you expect to see <-20f temperatures regularly, you'll want/need a backup heat source anyway.
How did you replace your radiators? Did you have to install ducts, or did you find a cost-effective way to have a heat pump heat the water for your radiator system?

Good ways to upgrade homes that use radiators to use heat pump heating seems like a big gap in the market right now (though, not sure if this is just a market problem or a gap in the technology, since my understanding is that radiators need higher temperatures than forced air systems).

I installed ducts. For me, personally, I think it was worth it. I live in an old home, but someone 50 years ago replaced all of the radiators with baseboard radiators (why???). So ducts over baseboard radiators is a huge upgrade.
I recently purchased and installed a 3 ton MrCool Universal (Gree Flexx, I believe) with lineset for ~$4K shipped: https://hvacdirect.com/mrcool-universal-36-000-btu-heat-pump... Worked just fine during the Christmas arctic blast. We will see about longevity but at 1/3 of the price of your proposed units, I'm not worried about slapping a new one at any time. I am essentially on my own for service as no contractors will work on it but it seems your units would present the same problem.
My hats off to you for doing a DIY install. This is not a bad route to go if you enjoy/feel comfortable doing the work and don't care about air quality, smart thermostat integration, etc. Re contractors, we will have local contractor partners do the install and handle servicing, so you won't be left with an unserviceable system.
Are you able to say more about that? "We will have local contractors" sounds great but in my area I don't think you will be able to find anyone to work with you. The local contractors and supply houses have closed ranks to fend off internet sales. I can't even buy sheet metal from the local supply houses without presenting an HVAC license. These folks are seeing their livelihoods threatened by a looming shift toward the "appliance" model (which I for one surely welcome) so they would see partnering to service a model like this as slitting their own throats.
There are ways of working with local HVAC contractors that provides value to them and doesn't just undercut their current way of business. Electric Air can provide lead gen, tools to support install, improved payment terms on jobs.
Agree 100% (I have my EPA cert and do my own installs)

Trying to bust into the HVAC company cartel will be the death of this idea. Most HVAC companies are highly local and have built their business around partnerships with supply houses and the US big-boy manufacturers (e.g. Carrier, Trane, Lennox). The Asian brands (Mitsubishi, Midea, Gree) have taken years to start penetrating the US market, and even then, many have done so through partnerships with the above US brands.

No reputable HVAC company is going to install a 'no name' dotcom branded unit that they won't be able to service with parts from their local supply house. They, and their suppliers, won't be getting the typical kickbacks or be able to mark up the unit costs and they likely won't offer any kind of warranty (at least on labor). To them, this is no different from Joe Homeowner ordering his MrCool/Goodman unit online and expecting them to install and service it for a low hourly fee. It's not worth their time or potential risk when the customer raises a stink a year later when that company reminds them they have zero warranty and parts aren't readily available.

mr. cool has it's own smart thermostats/apps. you can use it also with nest/ecobee. with regards to air quality, usually this kind of stuff better managed by dedicated systems.
> This is not a bad route to go if you enjoy/feel comfortable doing the work and don't care about air quality, smart thermostat integration, etc

You're insinuating that doing the work yourself means you'll have poor air quality, poor thermostat integration etc. That's not true at all. If you've gone to the trouble to do a DIY install then you're now already experienced enough to install a heat-recovery ventilator to get fresh air into your home via an independent system. I installed my own ecobee thermostat with my heat pump and electric furnace and it works with HomeKit so is integrated with my entire ecosystem.

Reading their comment slightly overly charitably vs what was written (but almost surely in-line with what was intended), they were contrasting their unit that has a HEPA filter bundled as part of their unit and that is not part of the Mr Cool unit.
Exactly. There's lots of stuff you can stitch together yourself, and if you're a DIY person, its more fun/rewarding to do it that way. I think the majority of homeowners will want something that doesn't require doing the install themselves, or having to worry about overall system integration.
I would only buy it if it has an API that I can access like NIBE does. It should have WiFI and also be able to run completely without internet connection. No functionality should be limited if internet is down except for functions that rely on external data such as live electricity prices etc.

Also, it should be modular so it is easy to repair. Nibe sucks from this aspect and I would love a different heat pump that has better parts prices and was repairable.

As a final must have: Silence. The NIBE is way too noisy and we have it placed next to a bedroom which causes a lot of frustration. When the compressor starts it travels through the walls. I'm currently building extra walls to isolate it and reduce the noise.

Professional installer for NIBE products here. Your experience doesn't align well with what I hear from my customers. Out of curiosity, what product do you have?
I have the F370. It has noise levels of about 60db when compressor is running. Exchanging the compressor costs $3000 from quotes from installers in my city.
Heat pumps were quite the rage in South Africa. Family members replaced their water heater ("geyser") with one, but I have not been impressed by the ability to heat water for baths and showers.

@Chris, I guess that you would say that heat pumps vary in quality and ability. What sort of metrics should I use to assess the quality of the pump that I am buying to avoid buying a dud?

There are even (somewhat weak at recovery) domestic water heaters that run off 120V for those replacing a gas water heater in North America and want to avoid the cost of new wiring/breaker/panels.
If you ever want to chat with a technical homeowner, who is mid-process in reevaluating HVAC retrofit in a house that would be a great candidate for this, contact me at the email account in my profile. I'd love to talk about this.

I've installed a few mini splits, understand load calcs (basically) and have plenty of experience with ducting systems and electrical and control systems.

I was raised on the belief that Heat Pumps could not be used in climates that really got "cold". I see the website lists -15 degrees as the operating temperature. What has changed in the past years to enable this? It seems like this would cover most of the contintental US now.
Probably better/more efficient defrost cycles. And maybe refrigerant choices.
Refrigerant, pressure, vapor injection, and a highly "managed" vapor compression cycle.
Regulation has helped a lot! Government can act as the unifier of buyer's not that long ago central systems scored 6 now this lowballs at 18.

If you increase the time of operation you can earn greater return on the costs invested. Commercial water heating is storing heat cheaply now to avoid storing water warm that will be used as that causes biofilms and disease.

Healthy sleep in room you want to work in upon rising creates a challenge for live pumping of heat. A sudden heat is best and that means storing from day before. We thrive sleeping in cold being woken by warmth.

$20,000 on a four ton heating load is compromised by this design tragically.

My gas furnace sits next to my gas water heater. I want a central air heat pump that dumps the heat into my water heater when I'm cooling the house.
In the meantime there are heat pump water heaters that can absorb the heat in your furnace room.
We have a heat pump water heater, it pumps out cold air. In theory we could duct it into the house (at least in the summer) though it cools the garage for free, so that’s nice.
There are some combined space heating + water heating heat pump options out there. A few points to watch out for (1) install of an extra hydronic loop for the air handler can be expensive (2) your air handler + heatpump combination will not run as efficiently because of the losses associated with a secondary loop (3) there's a bit of a trick to getting the heat pump properly sized for cold weather + domestic hot water operation (4) if the demand temperatures for domestic hot water and space heating are far apart, the whole system will run at the lowest efficiency dictated by the highest demand temperature.
Typical medium unit at market place is only around 3K compared to your offering at 12k. Why is it so expensive https://www.homedepot.com/p/Pioneer-36-000-BTU-3-Ton-18-SEER...
Fair point, I should do a better job of communicating the unit sizes. Heat pump capacity varies as a function of outdoor temps. A standard unit is rated at 47F but the sizes I'm showing are at 5F (cold climate conditions). Also for this price you get the air quality module which does HEPA, fresh air intake and humidification and a smart thermostat that's designed to fully optimize this heat pump system.
so what about places like Duluth, MN where it can be -20F ambient, then -40F to -50F with a windchill for several weeks of the year?
It's not designed for those areas. The world is plenty large, they don't need to accommodate every single address in the country to have a viable or useful product.
I would be very interested in stats on the gradient of home energy use by average outdoor temperature. I imagine that "Places where it gets too cold for heat pumps" represent a large percentage of heat usage; That is, there's (made up numbers) 10% of the population living in those areas, but they represent 90% of heating energy use.

If every home that could use your heat pumps year-round installed one and used it exclusively, what's the upper bound on energy saved? If every home across the country installed one and used it primarily (whenever it was warm enough outside), what would be the energy savings? Not to disparage, I'm certain it's still significant, but I'm curious to quantify it.

This is quantified by "heating degree days" and I don't think your intuition is correct here.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/da/United_S...

The difference between "Can use a heat pump" and "can't" is only maybe 10º or 15º. The coldest places are only ~20% colder than much more populated areas with millions of more residents.

Metro Boston has around 5 million people -- that's more than 3x as many as who live in North Dakota and South Dakota combined. Their climate is cold and they get around 6,000 HDD every winter compared to the frigid upper plains who average something like 8,000 or 8,500. So 1.3x more heat requirement per person but spread out across 1/3 as many people.

Not to mention all of e.g. Chicago, Denver, Des Moines, Cleveland, Detroit, New York, the rest of New England, etc. etc. where heat pumps do just fine.

Windchill doesn't effect, and you can handle small dips below -15 F (like for a couple hours at night) because the house has some thermal mass. However, Duluth, MN is right at the edge of being too cold for this heat pump (99th percentile cold temperature in the coldest month is -15.16 F). If I was in Duluth and was considering a heat pump, I'd want to make sure I had an electric furnace or some space heaters as a backup. However, it would still be worth it to get the heat pump because you'd be able to heat your home much more efficiently/cheaply >99% of the time.
Even in coastal California, most ducted heat pumps have a built in electric or gas furnace.

I imagine anything sold in areas where it actually gets cold will as well.

Here at 7000' near Santa Fe, I know dozens of homes, many new construction, that are heat pump only to all effects and purposes (i.e. they may also have fireplaces but these are not part of the normal heating systems nor part of any plan for the 0F-5F winter nights we can get.

Heat pumps can handle things by themselves down to around -10F to -15F, if correctly sized and installed.

What brand?

Most of the low temperature ones I’ve seen include resistive heating. At some point the COP of the heat pump approaches 1.

Also, having heat to -15, then switching to no heat isn’t ideal.

Mitsubishi. Their "extreme" models do not switch to resistive heating, but deal with the critical problem at very low temps: partial freezing of the refridgerant. They divert some of the heat into fully melting the refridgerant. This reduces the COP but keeps them functioning.
Custom ground source heat pump my friend :) side benefit (energy cost) free hot water.
Ground source is great! (if you can afford the install).
Windchill is irrelevant here, it only indicates what the temperature feels like to warm blooded mammals.
windchill as a concept can be applied to all evaporative cooling systems.
Heat pumps are not an evaporative system.

You can't lower the temperature across a gradient lower than the fluid temperature, no matter how fast that fluid is moving. You can cool things down faster, but you can't go lower.

So if it's 10F, a 5F heat pump will work equally well at 0mph wind and 30mph.

You got it. A brief technical aside, heat pump performance is hurt by frosting, which happens at intermediate outdoor temps (~35-50F). Basically the outdoor coil is both below freezing, and below the dewpoint of the air. The frost forms a thermal insulating layer around the coil, and intermittently you have to run a defrost cycle to melt off the ice. This is a small hit to system efficiency.
Yes, I never claimed they were. I was responding to the idea that only warm-blooded mammals have the concept of wind-chill. Any system that takes advantage of evaporative cooling will have the concept of wind chill. A "swamp cooler" is one example.
I was tempted to give a similar answer, but I'm not so sure it's irrelevant. Yes, the windchill won't affect the energy efficiency of the heatpump. But it will affect the rate at which the house loses heat, and thus the BTU's the system needs to provide to maintain a temperature. If the heatpump has been exactly sized to maintain a house temperature of (say) 70F at the expected winter low, adding a strong wind on the exterior of the house seems like it might make for a chilly morning. The effect isn't as strong as it is for bare skin at body temp, and hence the exact numbers will be off, but it's still there, right?
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If you want to control air quality, you do this with a separate fresh air intake, not with a ducted furnace. Many older homes have furnaces taking air from sub-optimal spaces such as garages or crawl spaces.
Great point. You don't source from the same spot you source combustion air - you run a separate fresh air intake. This system has HEPA, fresh air intake and humidity control packaged/integrated together well. The fresh air wouldn't come from a garage or crawl space, but from the outdoors via a dedicated (small) duct.
When you say it's rated at 47F do you mean its efficiency is measured at 47F? If so, does that matter much?

The unit linked in the post you're replying to states that it can operate as low as -13F.

Talking about capacity for heat pumps is tricky, their available heating power changes continuously as a function of outdoor temperature. The convention is to refer to the available capacity at 47F for 'normal' heat pump and the capacity at 5F for a cold climate heat pump.
Makes sense. How much does their capacity typically change over their operating temperature range?
Heat pumps extract heat, either from the house, or from the outside air.

When heating, it pulls it from the outside air. As it gets colder, there is less heat to pull out. Typically heat pumps will still keep pulling heat at >100% efficiency nearly into the negatives, but the amount they're extracting isn't enough to keep up with the heat loss of the house.

Heat lost of the house is a factor of insulation, surface area and heat gradient. It's a lot harder to keep a house at 68F when it's 5F outside than it is when it is 50F.

So when it's cold out, you need more heat generation, and there's less heat to pull from the air. That's why heat pumps have backup auxiliary heat.

First - this thing is awesome so nice going.

Second - yes, significantly better communication on the website is going to help. Some economic analysis (the section of savings is ambiguous) with specifics, specifics on how it would look with financing, for different house sizes etc would get a lot of people across the hump. It's quite unclear to me if this thing makes sense financially.

Third - nice going, this really is awesome.

Offtopic but for those wondering: there are two Launch HNs on the front page today because we're getting close to Demo Day for YC's W23 batch, so it's launch season. When we do pair them, I'm trying to select two startups that are uncorrelated with each other. Also, I thought it might be good to start the week with two launches that have nothing to do with LLMs.
I vote for a whole month of no LLMs.
Sorry, no can do. You're going to get one tomorrow and two on Thursday I think. I'm trying to pace them!
great to see someone take a holistic approach here. heat pumps are imperative to moving off fossil fuels and it's crazy how difficult it is to get these devices installed in homes right now.
Cloud tie in. Maybe acceptable for a $30 gadget. Not acceptable for a home appliance. Hard pass!
I installed a Mr. Cool DIY mini split in my home for 2 rooms and so far it’s been great. That initial foray was a bit of an experiment. I’d like to just replace my central air now with a ducted heat pump but I haven’t found a good solution that doesn’t cost a ridiculous amount for a professional to install.

I think you have a big problem with selling direct to homeowners. Most HVAC companies will not touch a homeowner-purchased system. So if you’re selling direct, then you’re going to need DIY quick connect line sets like Mr. Cool.

Your point on HVAC companies not servicing homeowner-purchased systems is worth underlining.

In our case, we need some duct work to fit a 2-ton Mr. Cool system to our existing ducts. Every licensed HVAC contractor/company we've contacted has refused to touch any part of consumer purchased system, citing liability issues (context: Bay Area, CA).

i am thinking to replace one of the hvacs with ducted mr.cool. just curious, what was the needed duct work ?