Pick the closest year to when you think it will become more likely than not (probability over 50%). For the purpose of this poll, "AGI" means "AI as good as or better than a smart human at any intellectual task".
We will be able to improve the charade but intelligence goes beyond thousands or millions of nested if statement or pattern recognition evaluations. As such, no machine will ever truly be intelligent, only highly competent at specialized tasks (like most humans seem to be these days).
> For the purpose of this poll, "AGI" means "AI as good as or better than a smart human at any intellectual task"
I don't understand why this should be the definition of AGI. We know what "artificial" and (maybe) "intelligence" mean; the "general" part should refer to the ability to solve (or at least making reasonable attempts at solving) a wide range of problems, including previously unseen ones, by means of un-specialised capabilities and cross-domain reasoning. By this definition, we have already reached AGI.
Given this, I'd rather talk of human-level AGI and super-human AGI. Anyway, for your definition (HL-AGI) I've picked 2027.
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[ 3.6 ms ] story [ 25.3 ms ] threadI don't understand why this should be the definition of AGI. We know what "artificial" and (maybe) "intelligence" mean; the "general" part should refer to the ability to solve (or at least making reasonable attempts at solving) a wide range of problems, including previously unseen ones, by means of un-specialised capabilities and cross-domain reasoning. By this definition, we have already reached AGI.
Given this, I'd rather talk of human-level AGI and super-human AGI. Anyway, for your definition (HL-AGI) I've picked 2027.