Too little, too late. This is General Motors facing Tesla, only this time Tesla is open source. And moving at the speed of light. If G. is to catch up, it's going to have to deploy some heavyweight cash to lobby for an AI slowdown. But of course in an international arms race, that's not really going to work either. All bets are off really. Buckle up!
MS, who owns ChatGPT, is deeply integrated into gov structures, while Google has been out of favor since Dragonfly. MS will outlobby G without even trying.
I think you mean whatever cloud project was going to be used by the military that got nixed by angry employees rather than Dragonfly. Dragonfly was an attempt to get a China-compliant version of search that also got ended when it became known to employees. If the government cared about that they wouldn't do business with Microsoft, Bing has always been available in China.
I don't know if it's clear that Tesla is beating GM unless you assume the growth curves for both are stable. My guess is that Tesla's growth slows until they stabilize around the 3rd-5th largest automaker.
(GM shipped 6M cars in '22, Tesla was at 1.3M)
It seems very possible, to me, that Tesla's growth slows. I don't think we can rely on Elon's marketing brilliance to bring another growth spurt - he appears distracted and unstable.
GM shipped 6M cars, of which 5,560,000 were gasoline powered cars.
The real question is not if GM is a larger car company but can they produce EVs, at scale, and sell them for a profit? The clock is ticking until gasoline cars are made illegal or taxed out of existence, no brilliance required. All Tesla has to do is wait.
The clock might be ticking, but my guess is it’s farther out than the current timelines. We will hit a capacity issue with our current grid.
Opinions can differ if Teslas early lead on EVs is sufficient to overcome their eccentric CEO, terrible repair options, and low build quality. Personally, I think that will be harder for them to pivot - and more important at 5x current scale - than GM switching to electric.
I really like Bing Chat. Ability to extract the exact thing I'm asking for from found websites is something that's valuable enough to prefer it over google in many of my searches. Ability to ask further questions in context also feels great. Feels like first meaningful improvement in search in two decades.
The Google seems truly seems to be past their peak. They basically shot themselves in the foot by ruining their core product, blowing smoke up their own ass with their various chat products, and otherwise being reactive way more than proactive. I wouldn't say The Google is on the decline, but they're definitely stuck, and I think it's going to take a new CEO and separating of wheat from chaff for them to course correct. If 5 or so years go by and their MO is the same as today, then they might be screwed. After all, it's not just AI Search that is over - their Search product is over.
Google Search's main problem is that it is annoying to use. The promoted results are annoying.
The quality of search results are very low in terms of user experience. Slow loads and full of dark patterns like popovers, sales bots, funnels, back button hijacking. This is 100% stuff that can be detected and penalized.
Finally their hybrid query understanding based on both semantic and keyword search is frustrating and misinterprets queries very often. This is a design problem.
AI search is not currently giving better answers, it's just less of a pain in the ass.
From a technical standpoint, sure. On the other hand, their organizational structure is such that I think even if enough ground soldiers at The Google woke up and smelled the coffee, too much management are high on their own supply for any changes to be allowed for Search that don't involve more ads and generative rubbish.
On another note, I impressed with how far they've even gotten with their AI search given their organizational problems and historical poor choices with their products. Doesn't mean it isn't still subpar. I wonder what their next excuse will be. Will they market themselves as "Post-AI" when everyone sees the emperor has no clothes? The sad part is that their PR will probably work.
> That arrived this year as consumers fell in love with ChatGPT, along with the idea of talking to software in ordinary language, and getting a direct response.
Some 20 years ago there was chatbot who you could talk to for hours.
It was not used to write propaganda though.
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[ 4.3 ms ] story [ 42.0 ms ] thread(GM shipped 6M cars in '22, Tesla was at 1.3M)
It seems very possible, to me, that Tesla's growth slows. I don't think we can rely on Elon's marketing brilliance to bring another growth spurt - he appears distracted and unstable.
The real question is not if GM is a larger car company but can they produce EVs, at scale, and sell them for a profit? The clock is ticking until gasoline cars are made illegal or taxed out of existence, no brilliance required. All Tesla has to do is wait.
Opinions can differ if Teslas early lead on EVs is sufficient to overcome their eccentric CEO, terrible repair options, and low build quality. Personally, I think that will be harder for them to pivot - and more important at 5x current scale - than GM switching to electric.
Google Search's main problem is that it is annoying to use. The promoted results are annoying.
The quality of search results are very low in terms of user experience. Slow loads and full of dark patterns like popovers, sales bots, funnels, back button hijacking. This is 100% stuff that can be detected and penalized.
Finally their hybrid query understanding based on both semantic and keyword search is frustrating and misinterprets queries very often. This is a design problem.
AI search is not currently giving better answers, it's just less of a pain in the ass.
On another note, I impressed with how far they've even gotten with their AI search given their organizational problems and historical poor choices with their products. Doesn't mean it isn't still subpar. I wonder what their next excuse will be. Will they market themselves as "Post-AI" when everyone sees the emperor has no clothes? The sad part is that their PR will probably work.
Some 20 years ago there was chatbot who you could talk to for hours. It was not used to write propaganda though.