This is our usual European approach. We don't fake it till we make it and don't move fast and break things. We are doing things slowly, but surely, and we are capable of planning long ahead. In 3-5 years sufficient capacity will come online and until then, Ukraine will be supported partially from stocks. Shortfall of requirement isn't so high, about 1 million shells (that are already allocated) at most, so there is no risk of running short.
What the article omitted is that Ukraine consumes ~6K per day of shells but only half of those are of Western types, rest are Soviet types, mostly 122 and 152mm, as well as Grad rockets - which are more easily accessible even if less useful, they can be used when precision isn't a requirement. Production capacity for those is more widely available and they are made by many countries, these aren't going to run out. Which leaves about 1M annual requirement of 155mm of which only Rheinmetall can produce 450K, Czechoslovak Group 100K, NAMMO 100K, plus Saab, Nexter, and a few smaller producers, some small amounts but supposedly no less than 100K total, plus 240K already made in the U.S. which is already almost a million put together. There are some months before these production levels are actually reached, and there is about 150-200K training requirements for U.S. and European armies combined (U.S. produced 14K a month when Afghan war was ongoing and reduced to 6500 a month when it ended, suggesting ~80K annual peacetime need, and about as much for EU - a typical small European army used ~6K per year). But it still leaves about 800K available annually for Ukraine starting with about end-2023, with ~1100K max requirement. 300K a year isn't so difficult to cover (Rheinmetall already works on 150K capacity increase in 2 years and NAMMO on 100K increase in 5 years, others also considering increases, as soon as contracts will come).
What the article also omits is that while Russia increases production AND REFURBISHMENT of shells from 1.7m to 2.5m annually, it doesn't mean their artillery fire rate will increase. It will fall because they are burning through Soviet stocks, 11M spent in 2022 alone and only around 7M left at the beginning of 2023. Of which some can only be used after refurbishment, and some certainly can't be used at all.
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[ 4.3 ms ] story [ 12.9 ms ] threadWhat the article omitted is that Ukraine consumes ~6K per day of shells but only half of those are of Western types, rest are Soviet types, mostly 122 and 152mm, as well as Grad rockets - which are more easily accessible even if less useful, they can be used when precision isn't a requirement. Production capacity for those is more widely available and they are made by many countries, these aren't going to run out. Which leaves about 1M annual requirement of 155mm of which only Rheinmetall can produce 450K, Czechoslovak Group 100K, NAMMO 100K, plus Saab, Nexter, and a few smaller producers, some small amounts but supposedly no less than 100K total, plus 240K already made in the U.S. which is already almost a million put together. There are some months before these production levels are actually reached, and there is about 150-200K training requirements for U.S. and European armies combined (U.S. produced 14K a month when Afghan war was ongoing and reduced to 6500 a month when it ended, suggesting ~80K annual peacetime need, and about as much for EU - a typical small European army used ~6K per year). But it still leaves about 800K available annually for Ukraine starting with about end-2023, with ~1100K max requirement. 300K a year isn't so difficult to cover (Rheinmetall already works on 150K capacity increase in 2 years and NAMMO on 100K increase in 5 years, others also considering increases, as soon as contracts will come).
What the article also omits is that while Russia increases production AND REFURBISHMENT of shells from 1.7m to 2.5m annually, it doesn't mean their artillery fire rate will increase. It will fall because they are burning through Soviet stocks, 11M spent in 2022 alone and only around 7M left at the beginning of 2023. Of which some can only be used after refurbishment, and some certainly can't be used at all.