Show HN: Fatebook – Superforecasting in your Slack (fatebook.io)
I see forecasting as anti-bullshit technology:
- It gives you truthseeking incentives
- You communicate your uncertainty as a probability, which is way clearer (70% is better than “probably”)
- You can aggregate forecasts to get wisdom of the crowd effects
- You can see everyone’s track record, and pay more attention to people who are consistently accurate
I’m a fan of prediction markets [0] and forecasting platforms [1]. But predictions on existing platforms are public - and the questions that are most important to you are normally about your work, which are often best to keep private by default, so you can give your true credence.
So I decided to make a slack bot to make forecasting privately and with your team as easy and fast as possible.
How it works:
1. Make a prediction in slack: `/forecast Will we ship v0.1 in two weeks?`
2. Everyone in the channel can add their forecast (0% - 100%)
3. In two weeks, Fatebook reminds you to resolve it as YES, NO, or AMBIGUOUS
4. Over time, you see your track record - your Brier score [2], relative Brier, and a graph of your calibration
I think it’s a good fit for startups who are dealing with lots of uncertainty and making bets - good to be explicit and track how your expectations do or don’t match with reality, so you can pivot early.
I also think programmers might get value from forecasting how long it’ll take them to build stuff - accurately predicting this lets you prioritise better and ship faster.
Let me know if you have any thoughts or suggestions!
---
1 comment
[ 3.6 ms ] story [ 12.5 ms ] threadPersonal mechanisms
“If we choose this HR provider, will I think it was a good idea in two month’s time?”
“Each day I’ll write down whether I want to leave or stay in my job. After 2 months, will I have chosen ‘leave’ on >30 days?”
“Will volunteering abroad make me all-things-considered happier?”
“Will I judge that AI was a major topic of debate in the US election?”
Objective proxies
“Will our user satisfaction rating exceed 8.0/10?”
“Will Our World in Data report that >5% of global deaths are due to air pollution by 2030?”
“Will I still be discussing my fear of flying with my therapist in 2024?”
Experts
Consider only actually asking an expert on ¼ of the questions you generate, chosen randomly, to keep your accuracy incentive and get feedback on your predictions, but minimise the cost of consulting experts or mentors.
“Will my mentor agree that pivoting now was the right choice?”
“Will the rest of the team prefer this redesign to the current layout?”
“Will anyone on the animal advocacy forum share evidence that convinces me that abolitionist protests are net-beneficial for the movement?”
“On December 1st, will Marco, Dawn, and Tina all agree that the biosecurity bill passed without amendments that removed its teeth?”
Crowds
“Will >80% of my Twitter followers agree that I should keep the beard?”
“Will a Manifold market on this question trade at >90% YES in two weeks?”
“Will social media posts about our product be more positive than negative in the first month after launch?”
“If I survey 40 random Americans through Mechanical Turk, will our current favourite name be the most popular?”