After thinking it over, I'm persuaded by the users who argued that this story is intellectually and historically interesting and therefore deserves a thread on HN – as long as it can stay out of flamewar. If you're going to comment, please make sure you're posting in the intended spirit of intellectual curiosity, and please avoid the shallow, tropey, flamebaity style.
Can everyone please avoid the shallow/flamebait style in this thread? Otherwise we're going to end up with something nasty and boring.
edit: I originally posted this as a reply to https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36460954 but that was a dumb idea (sorry pmarreck). I don't want to single out a particular user and didn't mean to shame anyone.
What is shallow about the comment your answered or flamebait. You might not see any interest in it, but I do see it. He really has a point. Russia does have problems fighting ukraine WITH the help of wagner, how will it fare against both?
I feel it's kinda insulting the tone here. I see this trend in hacker news that we use the guidelines as a way to insult or belittle other people's comments. It's agressive but in a cunny way.
"Good luck with that" is a trope and "he's already basically lost the war" is grandiose rhetoric. A one-liner consisting of those two things is both shallow and flamebait in the sense that we use those terms. This isn't a borderline call!
(but I shouldn't have used a moderation reply as a place to ask "everyone" something, since that could inadvertently generate a mob reaction and that's the last thing we want here)
Moderation comments are never intended as an insult or aggressive, but of course it's all too easy to come across that way without meaning to. If you or anyone wants to suggest ways to be more neutral about bringing up the guidelines, I'd be happy to take advice about it. However, that's different from changing the moderation standard, which is well established on HN.
This isn't kindergarten, I don't want all discussion reduced to anodyne abstractions. I think we can handle a robust exchange of views now and again, even if they're not expressed the way you would express them.
No one's asking for 'kindergarten' and I'm a bit puzzled why you would use that word, since the kindergarten side of the internet is the very flamewar dreck we're trying to avoid.
I think you don't realize that you are in fact treating us as kids or teenagers. Telling someone his, in good faith, comment, is below the guideline threshold is insulting. It's one of the polite, absolutely not vulgar, ways, to say someone's comment is idiotic without answering it. If you think someone hasn't provided enough evidence to back his claim, please ask him to do in a meaningful discussion. The kind of remarks where you just assume someone is just a weird internet troll, do not serve the discussion, nor the website users. Please understand that saying something politely, as in hiding behind the guidelines, doesn't make it acceptable if the message is insulting. We should thrive to build a community based on mutual respect.
I don't agree that HN moderation comments are doing anything like that. Most of the posts I reply to aren't idiotic (to use your word), and most comments that might strike me personally as idiotic (again, your word not mine) are within the site guidelines.
Moderation isn't about assessing who's right or wrong on a topic. That's the community's job, and I'm pretty sure the bulk of the community would not at all appreciate it if we tried to take that role.
The guidelines are kind of vague on purpose. When you say that some comment is a flamebait it is insulting. When you say that someone's comment is just an internet trope, it's insulting. You don't just enforce guidelines, you also make a very subjective judgement. I'm not going to argue anymore, I feel like talking to a politician that answers with bad faith and dodges the point.
It's an idiom I use a lot, because 'be nice and polite all the time under any circumstances' is something I associate with kindergarten. Small children don't have flamewars, although I see how they're reminiscent of schoolyard fights.
Still, I think posters need to accept some expressive/emotive language in discourse. 'Good luck with that' may be a trope as a way to sarcastically express skepticism, but it's hardly offensive or conversation-terminating.I like to know how people are feeling in regard to a contentious topic, whether or not I find them or their argument agreeable. draining away all emotion/idiom introduces its own problems; callous or cruel remarks may be couched in pseudo-objectivity and the language of necessity/inevitability.
> I think we can handle a robust exchange of views now and again, even if they're not expressed the way you would express them.
The comment in question didn't add anything to the discussion, it was just a snarky remark. Hence no actual exchange of views could be derived from it, only insults between factions.
I think you've slightly missed the mark on this one. Lots of things are tropes (there are tropes in your comment too, such as 'borderline call'), and saying that Putin has basically lost the war (whether true or false) isn't anywhere close to being 'grandiose rhetoric'. I don't think anyone expects you to get things right 100% of the time. It seems to me that calling this one particular comment flamebait was just a mistake. While it's not a very interesting comment, it's at least free of the wild speculation that you can find in many of the unmoderated comments in this thread.
I guess my criterion for 'grandiose rhetoric' is the bigness of a claim divided by the amount of information provided to support it. When the numerator is big and the denominator is small, that's what I mean by grandiose. It's one of the most common qualities on the internet, and one of the least interesting.
I can't agree that I missed the mark on that comment - what I said seems well within standard mod practice on HN. But it's fine that you disagree - there's always going to be disagreement on specific cases, since we all have different backgrounds and therefore different perceptions. It's the principles that matter.
You asked for constructive suggestions in your original comment. I'd suggest not using the word 'grandiose' in this way. If someone accused me of using 'grandiose rhetoric', then I certainly wouldn't think they just meant to say that I'd made a strong claim without supporting evidence.
The denominator is necessarily small as we're talking about a breaking news story obscured by the fog of war. If this is the bar that comments still have to reach in this context, then I wonder if the story should just remain flagged.
>I guess my criterion for 'grandiose rhetoric' is the bigness of a claim divided by the amount of information provided to support it. When the numerator is big and the denominator is small, that's what I mean by grandiose.
you just described a majority of discussions around AI/Chat GPT here. Or around twitter/facebook/etc. using this criteria they should be outright banned from here.
There are an awful lot of shallow takes on geopolitics here and in general, because … how do I put this in a non-insulting way … it’s a complex topic that doesn’t lend itself to pithy internet comments by those without a deep knowledge. Nation states do weird things, like how the US policy towards Cuba (itself complex) is almost entire driven by the electoral college for presidential elections and domestic demographics, but security still matters.
Our debates on Twitter, Facebook, crypto, and AI are pithy because we all know the topics well, and have mostly made up our minds about them. Often there’s not a lot to add not included in the article.
>Our debates on Twitter, Facebook, crypto, and AI are pithy because we all know the topics well, and have mostly made up our minds about them. Often there’s not a lot to add not included in the article.
they are pithy yet shallow. full of "grandiose rhetoric". "made up our minds" doesn't equal "sufficiently knowledgeable"
you could banish all typical, repeatable, pointless discussions to one day a week: "free-style Wednesdays" and reserve rest of the week for news that are actually new and educational. also could be interesting to see "no rules/mods friday".
That was the most intense war played out over cyber channels I've seen.
Telegram, Twitter, some idiot on LinkedIn. OSINT everywhere. Lots of blocked sites in Russia. Possible attacks on Google maps. A shame HN opted out. You get this sort of thing once a decade. I guess with the internet exploding it might happen again sooner.
No offense but the live tweeting from people thirsty for “entertainment” looking for and cracking jokes about news updates on the advance made me a little queasy.
These days I saw a website where you could pay to write down your name on warheads that would eventually explode on someone's head. By the looks and numbers it had it seemed very mainstream and popular.
It doesn't matter which side we're talking about. This kind of thing is insane and dehumanized.
As long as the bombs are blowing up people that my government has
spent years propagandizing me to have really strong opinions about, why shouldn't I be engaging in that sort of thing?
It's clearly tied to the account that does the sharing, so internally they must track that. what they track that for is another question but I don't know the answer to that.
Not sure why they'd do that. Both Putin and Prigozhin were basically accusing each other of treason as Wagner was marching towards Moscow and shooting down Russian helicopters and planes. And now they're both just basically backing down, leaving behind a bunch of destruction on Russian soil.
There were so far reaching effects too. They even shut down national TV and blocked websites in the risk of propaganda against them. I don't think it was for show either.
I believe they were trying to force all Wagner fighters to sign a new contract with the Ministry of Defence by July 1st. Apparently this is no longer the case, although nothing confirmed 100% yet.
Does anyone else find the mercenary industry a strange thing in war? Business dealings made under the assumptions of the status quo, between entities who are able to entirely change what the status quo is in an instant
Get paid in gold or diamonds. Also you can take a bet that property given to you in occupied territory will remain in your possession after hostilities. This is what Hitler did in ww2 to retain his generals' loyalty.
Many have mentioned Machiavelli on the untrustworthiness of mercenaries, but looking at it from their point of view (eg. Xenophon's 10'000) I'd guess most mercenaries are well aware that with little loyalty going the other direction, they're the most likely to get tossed under the proverbial bus/off the proverbial troika.
That's the problem for these kinds of strongmen dictators - any sign of weakness is a major political problem and one which he may not outlive. And in fairness to Stalin (and you won't hear me complementing Stalin too much usually), he didn't flee Moscow in 1941 when other armies were approaching.
At this point, I think Prigozhin is more likely trying to get a deal to leave russia and keep his billions & life.
Highly doubt Wagner will be kept around and likely the defense minister will be kept. That said, the defense minister ran away in the fighting, probably justification to sack him
I don't think anything is settled yet. But yes, Putin is weak.
Everyone knows, even in russia, that the war is a desaster.
And now Prigoshin and his Wagner forces, who stood for the only few victories in the last time, turned against Putin. (Even stating, that the war was wrong in the first place and that there never was a threat from Ukraine towards russia.)
And Wagner has the reputation of being ruthless and efficient.
The common national guards really don't want to fight them. They could surely bomb them all to death, but then who will fight and win for russia?
There is currently a ukraine offensive going on. And Wagner occupied an important military HQ in rostov. They will never forgive Prigoshin for that, that is sure, but he plays the only card he has - brute force.
And they came already within 250 km of moscow with little resistance. But that is also, because they don't want to actually fight.
Information & propaganda wars are so asymmetrical I sometimes wish there was less reporting until it was actually clear what is going on. It's all just one fog of uncertainty and whoever thinks what is being reported now is correct is probably mistaken. Somehow this buildup of troops was completely unreported, even though any intelligence agency worth its salt should have seen concentration and movement of troops for days if not weeks. Completely unreported in the media AFAIK, and all of a sudden all media is reporting Wagner is going full steam ahead towards Moscow.
Eh around the time of the Wagner pullout from Bakmut there has been signs that there was a large amount of discontent between the mercenaries and the MOD. They had been throwing threats at each other along with rumors of shooting at each other at times.
Oddly enough on some more of the hypothetical and conspiratorial parts of the net possibilities like this have been discussed for weeks. It's just so odd to see this happen in real life.
So, assuming this is true, and there isn’t still a, possibly secret and/or smaller, force secretly heading for Moscow, how would this pan out for Wagner and its leader?
To me this looked like an “all in”, but apparently, they think it wasn’t. What could have convinced him and his troops that any promises made would be held?
Are there historical precedents for this kind of action where the revolter stopped their advance, and lived happily ever after?
>To me this looked like an “all in”, but apparently, they think it wasn’t. What could have convinced him and his troops that any promises made would be held?
My guess is that he was counting on support from within the Russian power structure that was promised but then didn't materialize, and now he knows that following through would be suicide, and giving up at least offers a non-zero chance of survival.
Another possible explanation: it was a setup, planned by Putin from beginning to end in order to improve his strongman image and eliminate Wagner as a threat. Prigozhin was given the offer to play along and end up powerless but rich - and alive. That offer could be credible because if Prigozhin gives up control of Wagner, he helped Putin and is not a threat to him anymore.
The Putin's setup theory is the most convincing I've heard so far.
One thing that doesn't make sense to me is that Prigozhin used an alleged Russian missile attack on a wagner base as justification to start this charade. If the Russian government really wanted to neutralize Wagner, one can only think they would have taken more effective and quick measures to do so, rather than a half-hassed missile attack. There's no logic behind it, some piece of the puzzle is missing.
Prigozhin videos from the last months show a man trying to find a credible excuse to get out from the frying pan, without being prosecuted by desertion, and before being killed while sleeping by his own men trapped in Bahmut.
In some way he succeeded into putting as much distance as possible between himself and the Ukraine counterattack (even if this means selling Wagner to the Russian army in exchange for a golden ticket for himself and the Wagner leaders). All without looking like a treason towards the rest of mercenaries.
Would not surprise me if the other wagnerites will be forced to enter in the Russian army and used routinely as cannon fodder, as they did before with the Russian soldiers.
> - deal was supposrdly negotiated by a widely disrespected Lukashenko, not by Putin.
Lukashenko is Putin's puppet; Putin couldn't negotiate in first person without appearing as weak.
It's possible that both Prigozhin and Putin tested their own strength and concluded that they both can be hurt badly. I believe that we'll know more by looking at what will happen to Shoigu and Gerasimov in the next days.
> Lukashenko is Putin's puppet; Putin couldn't negotiate in first person without appearing as weak.
Ah yes, instead it was negotiated by the unpopular ridiculed Lukashenko everyone views as a clown. This makes Putin seem strong.
Also strong:
Putin in the morning: these traitors will be brought to justice, I authorize Ministry of Defence to use any means possible. I give you my word.
Putin in the evening: we drop all charges against this military coup (who also killed at least 12 soldiers furing their march on Moscow), and I give my word the Prigozhin can just go to Belarus.
So strong.
It's funny how putinophiles will try to contort reality to a ridiculous degree to find an angle to prove Putin is a superhuman playing 12-dimensional chess.
Now imagine any Western leader doing the same, and how you would ridicule them.
I didn't write that Putin's image was being strengthened by having Lukashenko act as puppet, the point is that he had to choose between being weakened or weakened and ridiculed. Also, in the same context they granted impunity to all Wagner soldiers; this must come from Putin, not Lukashenko, which has zero power in Russian affairs.
Moreover, note that the two Russian officials shown talking with Prigozhin in Rostov are Shoigu's #2 and Gerasimov #2. They didn't seem entirely comfortable in that video, but that sends a message nonetheless. Also, Prigozhin never addressed Putin directly. There's a lot of stuff going on there, probably too much to draw conclusions, but I'm sure we'll see some people "disappear" or die of "natural causes" quite soon.
Sorry, didn't look at the user name because "Putin couldn't talk to Prigozhin directly because that would make him weak that's why this was done by the clown Lukashenko which made Putin look even weaker" and further justifications are no different from that post.
>My guess is that he was counting on support from within the Russian power structure that was promised but then didn't materialize
Thats not how russia works. In russia you show up with a gun, say "Im Tzar now" and everyone obeys out of fear. Occupying main centers of power in Moscow (MoD, TV, Kremlin) would be enough for Prigozhin to claim being the new ruler. That one brigade "defending" Moscow didnt even have heavy weapons. Wagner tanks would cut thru them like hot knife.
Whatever you want to call it, coup, rebellion, whatever, it seems clear that this event will provide a Dolchstoß explanation for the loss of the Ukraine war that will be used to keep revanchist militarism alive.
That won't help Putin, though (probably). He's probably fatally weakened by all this, as the Kaiser didn't remain in power past the end of WWI. What it will do is provide nationalistic fodder for the next nationalistic firebrand in 20 years.
There is a TASS article from yesterday where the FSB, in english translation, literally said "stab in the back". Unfortunately swapping languages from an article doesn't get the original, so I have no idea what the idiom may be in russian.
There is an enormous pule of Dolchstoß explanations already collected to be used on as per needed basis. The events of today are adding to it but far from dwarfing it.
That being said stab in the back doesn't involve antisemitism in Slavic languages. I have the same idiom in Polish, and it's just an idiom for betrayal.
It's also a common idiom in the German language, but in a different form: The Dolchstoß is associated with WWI and antisemitic ideas, while in den Rücken fallen (literally to fall into someone's back) is the linguistic backstab figure.
I don't know about drugs. Ego, messiah complex, and delusions of invincibility? Sure.
Putin got where he was through reality-TV-level ostentatious displays of strength. Prigozhin likely figured he was the only one who could boast measurable gains in the war, and the same tactics would work for him.
My guess is his miscalculation was assuming he was more popular among the rank-and-file Russian military and police than he is, and it's too early to tell if that's actually a miscalculation.
I think that is really unlikely, because Prigoshin stated that the war was a misstake and that Ukraine was never a threat to russia.
That is 100% against every major decision of Putin and a direct attack to his authority, even though he softened it up by stating he was wrongly informed by the military.
That still makes Putin weak, when he, who was raised by the KGB, is not able to get acurate information. (He does have internet btw. and he speaks more than russian.)
Imo, the most interesting aspect of this story and its subsequent thread of comments is the absolute torrent of information to come from sources all over the internet, international media, and so-called experts, and the sheer impossible task of separating fact from fiction on a minute-by-minute basis.
I've been trying to see signs of this movement on webcams along the route. No success so far, but I was looking well north of Rostov.
This is the kind of event you need to look at on maps. There's a freeway all the way from Rostov to Moscow. It's flat country in good weather. The first big natural obstacle is the bridges at the Oka River, and Russian Federation armored units are reportedly already in position at those bridges. So that's where the major battle would have been.
Re: "absolute torrent of information". No. A small amount of information relayed through different paths and amplified. Be aware of that.
Prigozhin is showing that in terms of controlling the narrative he's in a different league than most of his compatriots.
I see this as a continuation of what this whole debacle is all about: regime change.
A large part of the official motivation behind this invasion is preventing civil war in Russia. That's why Ukraine was supposed to be "stabilized".
Putin presents himself as a source of stability and that's how he's perceived for the most part.
To attempt to upend this order is to be either foolish, or very certain of one's position with hard data to back that up. Prigozhin still hasn't been defenestrated, so I suppose it's more the latter than the former.
There are no factions in Russia capable of starting and winning a civil war. The country's military is deliberately fragmented into many small departments, each with their own standing infantry forces, and its security apparatus is tasked to ensure that they don't all rebel together.
There may be some serious internal power struggle that an outside observer cannot see, but it's far more likely that the invasion was not a desperation move, but just one of the many steps that Putin makes to increase his internal perception of legitimacy.
There's no reason, besides our domestic propaganda and wishful/magical thinking to believe that it was a desperation move from him. His internal-to-Russia legitimacy was quite high prior to the war.
(And it's hard to tell what it is now, because of the crackdown on speech and dissent. So you get political pundits who are talking out their ass four fifths of the time assuring is that no, this time, he's totally on the brink of being out, pinky swear...)
----
Bonus points: If most of your military command is staffed by spineless bootlickers, who were promoted for their loyalty, as opposed to competence, they are very unlikely to join any rebellion against you. There's a good reason for a nation that is secure from outside invasion to have an incompetent military...
Russia, as a nuclear nation, is 100% secure from external invasion. It doesn't need a military that is able to fight, it needs a military that knows that it has to be loyal to the big guy.
This past day was weird, but seems to be the exception that... Proves the rule?
When all this finishes, Prigozhin is going to need one hell of a biographer. It's a book I'd read for sure. How do you go from running a hot dog stand to leading a mercenary force in -- a coup? Is that what's going on? It's unclear. But whatever is happening there's some fascinating character arc underneath.
The most likely answer for what is going on here is the one right on the surface. Prigozhin realized that he could try to take Moscow, but he'd ultimately be defeated, Putin was already gone. He acted without any political support and without having a bunch of aces up your sleeve an attempted coup is destined to fail. It would also drag units away from Ukraine to deal with him and undermine Russian efforts in the face of the Ukrainian offensive. Prigozhin is still fighting against Ukraine and probably recognized that he would go down in Russian history as a traitor. It was very likely just a rash miscalculation by Prigozhin. He's hoping to use this as political leverage now, but my guess would be that he winds up dead pretty soon. I doubt there's any 4 dimensional chess going on.
If this is the case, then this isn't going to be the Russian Civil War/Coup that people had hoped to end the war. Russia is certainly a mess though, and this might cause other political forces in Russia to act.
But this provides interesting signal: under certain circumstances, Putin is willing to flee via private aircraft for safety. Whether intentional or not, stimulus and response has been observed.
Another signal - a sparsely equipped army of a few thousand can march in from Ukraine and take Moscow in a matter of hours, facing minimal resistance. Regardless of the outcome I’m sure NATO has been taking detailed notes.
This I don't think is very surprising. Unless the defense expects it and has time to prepare, the speeds achievable by military vehicles, especially combined with well-developed road infrastructure of modern urbanized countries, means that the attacker can easily cover large distances fast.
In other words: APCs on a highway are not that different from intercity buses, and highways are designed to let you cross the country quickly.
russian army did try to slow him down from the air. but they managed to take down 6 helicopters and one airplane (flying command center).
all the army/etc on his way was simply surrendering
Right. It would've been a different story if the Russian army treated them as enemy - their air forces could've stopped the convoy dead at any point of their choosing.
Highways let you move fast only as long as they're intact and no one is shooting at you; otherwise, they make you an easy target. Russian army experienced that first-hand in the first two months of their invasion of Ukraine.
>Right. It would've been a different story if the Russian army treated them as enemy - their air forces could've stopped the convoy dead at any point of their choosing.
my point was that they tried and they failed. wagner has a bunch of manpads and few pantsir sam systems. they tried to bomb them on highway from planes but missed and kill civilians in track. they also tried to shoot at them missles at voronezh but blew up some petrol refinary. they also tried to bomb some bridge to block road to moscow - but also missed
Is this confirmed? I stayed away from the news firehose this time, and only followed BBC live reporting, and IIRC there was no confirmation there of any bombing attempt, successful or otherwise.
there are videos of helis shooting refinery and planes bombing bridge (followed by video of somebody driving near the bridge and holes in highway or near it).
about track on highway - there are videos of it burning with commentary that plane try to bomb wagner convoy but missed
> they also tried to shoot at them missles at voronezh but blew up some petrol refinary
No, I believe the oil refinery got blown up by a Wagner surface to air missile. The Wagners were trying to shoot down a federal Ka-52, the helicopter successfully deployed countermeasures, and the missile flew off target into the backstop - which happened to be a refinery.
There are two videos of the event from different angles circulating on telegram, it's pretty clear.
the reports were saying that wagners camped at refinery and helis tried to shoot at them.
either way, helis definitely weren't there on behalf of santa claus with early presents delivery
I can only imagine in the US that if we could not use aircraft directly on the convoy, say they have very good air defense, we'd have dumped the bridges on the interstates in less than a day.
Yes, and I'm pretty sure Russia could do that too - if they were getting Blitzkrieged by some outside enemy force. Here, it was a theoretically friendly and small force, that suddenly turned around and drove towards Moscow. Given how much damage blowing up bridges and highways would do to the country, and somewhat unclear threat from the approaching mercenaries, I don't think anyone on the defense side considered dropping a bridge on the highway to be a reasonable move.
"I don't think anyone on the defense side considered dropping a bridge on the highway to be a reasonable move."
It surely was considered. I can imagine in the state of panic even tactical nukes were considered, but sure, not reasonable.
But if Wagner forces would have actually pushed through, then they definitely would have blown up bridges, if the alternative would have been Moscow under siege or house to house fighting.
From what I've heard (personal hearsay, got no independent sources), some excavators were sent to ruin highways.
Edit: here's a link but this is not on the main highway. Unsure of the scale of this "operation" and if this was ordered from top brass or local initiative.
Yeah if aliens for some reason wanted an invasion of the US homeland by zombie mindcontrolling the army of one other country (and had some way to negate nukes) their best chance wouldn't be China or the EU but Canada and Mexico, just because of the developed land transport infrastructure between the countries
It’s not news to anyone that NATO could win a (conventional) war with Russia. The important result is that any sizable chunk of military force in Russia itself stands a good chance of it.
Why risk nuclear armageddon when you can conveniently switch sides at the slightest occasion. It's not like armies marching to shuffle a few chairs in big offices were a matter of deep ideological conflict or worse.
I think you should do some research on the topic before you conclude that "NATO is out of ammunition". I highly recommend Perun https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deK98IeTjfY .
I'd look to how NATO ran out of PGMs etc when fighting in Libya. I didn't see a big uptick in arms purchases after that. Also, Germany recently crowed about sending 1000 155mm artillery rounds. That's like 3 hours of firing at Ukraine's current rate. The reason Germany has been so slow to provide weaponry to Ukraine is that it is a shell of its former self. The Kriegsmarine has been a joke for decades, the Luftwaffe can barely put 60 aircraft in the air, and the Heer has fewer tanks than Poland, and most of these tanks are in poor condition and shared with the Netherlands.
NATO is not what it was before 1989, and will take decades to come back up to a minimally acceptable level.
There are huge institutional challenges for this to occur. Production facilities have all been consolidated (as they have in the US since the end of the Cold War.) Budgets are also a problem; the majority of NATO members aren't even making the 2% of GDP goal. And there are also some demographic issues; the population of the EU is aging and military service doesn't have as strong an appeal. Will Germany reinstate the draft?
And some things do take decades, even in perfect conditions. Building up a navy takes time due to the long construction timelines for ships. Developing coordination for combined arms operations requires both good officers and non-coms. These take time to develop as well, and need to be continually sustained.
You can set up a schedule to train non-coms in 2-3 months, that doesn't mean they'll be very good. Experience is extremely valuable at this level.
And surely you understand that the US economy and state of industry in 1943 (when the Liberty ships were being launched daily) is quite different than today? Only one country currently has the shipbuilding capacity to even think of something like that. The US (and Europe) have closed down a huge number of shipyards since the end of the Cold War, and it would take decades to create new ones, with trained workforces. All the US shipyards are short workers in almost all categories.
> You can set up a schedule to train non-coms in 2-3 months, that doesn't mean they'll be very good. Experience is extremely valuable at this level.
This one statement means you don’t know what you’re talking about. Non commissioned officers are E4 rank, you can leave bootcamp at E3 rank. 6 months later get E4. NCO only requires experience at the E7 or above level, which don’t fight only lead.
The knowledge is there when he needs it. It comes down from upstairs. They tell him what he needs to know, they tell him what he needs to say, and they feed him all the borscht he can eat. And then there's the extra potato ration on Tuesdays to look forward to.
That's the amusing part. The sad part is that the people behind the troll farms still think they're fooling anybody in the West.
They faced minimal resistance because those in power wanted to give them minimal resistance (not to stir up bad blood before the matter is resolved otherwise). If they were an actual emeny unit (not an ex-ally in negotiations, which was the case) they'd be obliterated by air and land in minutes.
And of course marching towards Moscow only staying hundrends of kilometers away from it (while being let to march), and "taking Moscow in a matter of hours" is a totally different thing.
lets see: in less than 2 days they took over 2 regional centers, southern military headquarters (in process captured deputy minister of defense and deputy chief of military intelligence) and 2 military airbases. marched unopposed for few hundred miles towards moscow and stopped only because they decided to do (also took down a bunch of military aircrafts.).
at same time russian government managed only to put a bunch of tracks with sand on highways to block it, demolish parts of highway and bomb their own bridge.
prior to this, last month, some RDK and Russian Legion performed ~10km deep incursions into russia, pretty much unopposed and stayed there for a days.
so no, it's not only onliners. it's just state of russian state. where everything is fake and for show
Yes, minutes, just like russia could take Kyiv last year, they just chose to turn around as a gesture of goodwill. Definitely no weakness and incompetence there.
Reality is ground forces let wagner pass out of fear/solidarity. Only aviation tried, and failed hard to stop the convoy.
To be clear, that is the established protocol for the commander and chief of most militaries. That’s why such a big deal was made when Zelensky didn’t leave Kyiv despite advancing Russian forces. If there was a credible threat to President Biden he would be on Air Force One immediately.
Such a strange take. Of course any public appearance of any government head is propaganda. If propaganda ever has a value, it’s the assured image of a commander in chief in the war time, when the troop have to face a stronger enemy who outnumber them. They need to know their leader is there with them. It’s a matter of survival for Ukraine. Do you think a well shaved Zelenskyy in impeccable suits, sitting behind long table — like Putin — is more suitable?
In a way, yes I would find it more plausible if Zelenskyy looked like the trope of president should look like.
I sincerely would have been more likely to believed that Putin is ran evil warmonger, and that Zelenskyy is a paragon, if it wasn’t the case there was so much of this top-down pressure in the US to make sure people don’t accidentally pick the wrong side to root for.
If I saw that the facts were plainly speaking for themselves I would believe them. But they aren’t, so I have to be very critical.
I understand the need for this propaganda in Ukraine for the sake of Ukrainians. I don’t understand why in the US, Ukrainian propaganda has a state sanctioned monopoly over Russian propaganda.
I still don't understand your take, you are very wary of Ukrainian propaganda because the US supports it. So look at the facts: Russia invaded a neighbouring country, butchered civilians, hazed cities.
Your take on propaganda because a president of a country being invaded doesn't dress the part you expect is seriously bizarre. You're not being critical, you are being cynical.
Zelenskyy dressing a certain way and standing in front of a green screen to look like he is in Kiev was just one thing that came to mind specifically because the poster I was responding to was talking about how Zelenskyy was so unique for doing this.
Since that was the aspect of the propaganda that was relevant at the moment, that’s what I focused on. But it is a tiny part of the whole, and yes on its own I agree that it appears quite trivial and inconsequential. But when mass media (including new media) ceaselessly bombards the entire population with tiny things like this over the course of years, then it has a very real and drastic effect. And most nefarious of all, because this kind of propoganda is ever present and so subtle, it is almost invisible. And when you do point out any one of its many aspects you get responses exactly like this: that it is trivial and inconsequential and why don’t I just get with the program, and isn’t it obvious there’s good guys and there’s bad guys and isn’t it obvious who is who.
> and why don’t I just get with the program, and isn’t it obvious there’s good guys and there’s bad guys and isn’t it obvious who is who.
And this is the cynical post-modernist post-truth part that I criticise about your position. It's just a doubt of everything, of what's even real, and so you are just playing your part of the propaganda that made you think that way. The issue in post-truth is that your take is just another parroted version of "what's even real?". Even on this case, where it's pretty clear who are the bad guys, you prefer to be cynical and not even believe what your eyes can see.
You've been bombarded by subtle or overt propaganda your whole life, by governments and corporations. It's not by being cynical that you are somehow better than others or not being influenced by it, you aren't immune to it by believing nothing. Or by being a contrarian.
I think my stance is the total opposite of post modernist. I believe exactly what I can verify myself. Either with my own eyes or through real life people that I know personally and know how far I can trust. There is no reason to believe anything else.
There is no reason to believe anything in the media. Anyone who doesn’t suffer from Gell-Mann amnesia should know this is the right stance, it’s not even necessary to believe that it’s all propaganda to reach this conclusion.
This is the stance of post-truth, exactly one aspect of post-modernism.
Even more because you won't ever be able to verify every single piece of information yourself, you don't have access to all the data possible to verify it. You don't have access to people.
Again, you not trusting anything is the result of falling for propaganda that told you that nothing is trustworthy.
Are you going to reproduce every single scientific experiment to be able to verify them? Are you going to travel to every single place that has news about to interview people yourself and get your own conclusions? Nope, you just don't believe anything, you went to the extreme cynicism side.
It's impossible to achieve what you wrote, it's a lie you tell yourself because it's uncomfortable to trust, there's no truth except your own and that is... Very, very post-modern.
It’s not like he’s traipsing around in full combat kit. The look he has chosen is probably meant to convey that 1: we’re at war (regardless of what conditions might be like at your particular location), and 2: I’m not living a pampered lifestyle while you’re sitting in the cold and the dark under threat of missile and drone attack. (Whether that’s true or not is beside the point)
Seems logical that he would use a green screen whether he was in Ukraine or not.
Very start of an invasion doesn't feel like a great time to be broadcasting your exact location. Also maybe not a great time to be doing outtakes in the open streets.
I don't have a whole lot of information to say whether he actually stayed or not. I assume there would be a ton of credible evidence in one direction or the other - photos, videos, etc. But either way, I'm just saying that I could definitely understand the need for a professional studio and obfuscation of location.
I think 9/11 did. Granted President George W. Bush was famously reading a book to school children when it happened, but I believe he stayed Airborne on Air Force One for several additional hours as a precaution.
Also President Madison evacuated Washington, DC during the War of 1812.
Depends on where the threat is coming from, obviously.
There's the Pentagon, Raven Rock Mountain Complex, Mount Weather Emergency Operations Center, Cheyenne Mountain Complex, the Greenbrier bunker, the Peters Mountain facility, 33 Thomas Street, nearly a dozen aircraft carriers, Camp David, and god knows how many military bases.
Or he could just board the doomsday fleet of E-4Bs and stay in the air
Continuity of Operations (COOP) is a United States federal government initiative, required by U.S. Presidential Policy Directive 40 (PPD-40), to ensure that agencies are able to continue performance of essential functions under a broad range of circumstances. PPD-40 specifies certain requirements for continuity plan development, including the requirement that all federal executive branch departments and agencies develop an integrated, overlapping continuity capability, that supports the eight National Essential Functions (NEFs) described in the document.
Depending on the circumstances he may stay in the air until the threat was resolved. Assuming the US tanker fleet isn't wiped out Air Force One and its escorts can stay aloft indefinitely and act as a command center for the military. That's the plan in case of nuclear war.
Nowhere. AF1 can be refueled in the air indefinitely, and carries enough food and water for several days. You ground civilian traffic and shoot down anything non-military in the air; nothing's getting to you.
Why, did people expect him to be an idiot or go Avengers style and fight himself, perhaps with bare hands? Of course he'll go somewhere safe and work from there. That's what leaders all over the world too in such crisis moments, if an attack is suspected.
Wagner claimed a strength of 25k, actual number advancing on Moscow was probably lower. Not a good look for someone who has cultivated a strongman image for decades to be fleeing from that.
Whatever the answer is, it wouldn't provide any evidence for or against what's being discussed. Processes used by the US military don't tell you anything about practices of the Russian presidential plane.
At best we have no information about the Russian presidential plane, which is exactly my point. We make all these assumptions about what's happening without any real basis for those assumptions. This is why I say most of the news around Russia/Ukraine is propaganda. It's all told with the narrative that the west wants.
Note: I support Ukraine, Russia is absolutely in the wrong
I read the defense minister resigned in a deal negotiated by Lukashenko, and charges dropped against Prigozhin
That’s an absolute win, for Prigozhin, since that was the original goal
this internal issue has nothing to do with anyone outside of that region
thats a pretty big shakeup. “I dont like this guy and there is no political process to remove him so I brought in my private army, the President fleed and he resigned in 10 hours”
Seems like a terrible outcome for Putin. He looks really weak and presumably just lost most if not all of Wagner, who were his most effective troops. He might have Prigozhin poisoned, but that would probably cause further instability internally as it causes more of his leadership to realize he'll clearly betray anybody and his word isn't worth anything.
> and presumably just lost most if not all of Wagner
That remains to be seen? Might be that some of their warriors will take the offer to join the military, and others... might select (or be given) new leadership, and go back to Ukraine to resume their regular business there.
If this really was Prigozhin vs. MoD, then that particular issue might be a closed case. Mercenaries are what they are - they're loyal to themselves and money, not state policy. Prigozhin got them to march at Moscow, so they did; then got them to march back, safe and sound, so they did. Russian government can just say "okay, no shots fired, no hard feelings" and leave it at that; it's not like they trusted them in the first place.
Putin angle though, that's a new thing. One way of spinning today's events is that Prigozhin took a swing at the Tsar, missed, and still lived to talk about it. Leaving it at that is not safe for the Tsar.
Lukashenka is a wily operator and has ruled Belarus with an iron fist for 20 years. The offer is exile for Prigozhin personally, not an open invitation for everybody in Wagner to come to Belarus.
Wait and see where Wagner ends up in Belarus. Watch it be some convenient spot along Ukraine border.
I’m not saying that was the original plan, but even just moving 20K Wagner troop as part of the deal, even with no intention of attack, would draw a significant chunk of ukraines attention.
And if the Ukrainians don’t move additional defense, then an opportunistic attack might be on the table for some exchange that would be mutually beneficial to the Russian factions.
Let me be clear, this was not meant to be a grand ruse, but that doesn’t it can’t be turned in to one after the fact in order for the opposing Russian sides to salvage their situation.
Only the ones who "didn't march" to Moscow, so roughly 20k are ineligible for these MoD contracts that are being forced on the rest of them. I would imagine those 20k are the more experienced, more loyal ones who are well paid and protected by Prigozhin.
I don't think you can say what Prigozhin said yesterday about the war and then get people to participate in it under your command. He was pretty crystal clear that the war was an unjustified clusterfuck.
Yeah, from the outside, this seems like a very poor outcome for Prigozhin. Regardless of what money or access or whatever was promised in return to standing down, he is effectively trapped in the non-Western economic block due to his actions in Ukraine. In this part of the world, anything you own is only as useful as your ability to prevent politically-connected people from taking it from you. I can't see how his position now could possibly be construed as more personally advantageous than 72 hours ago, but I'm sure there's much more happening behind the curtain than we will ever be aware of.
Yeah he got no support, everyone sided with Putin. I think he knows the end is near. He’ll hide in Belarus for as long as he can but I bet he knows he crossed the line.
It depends on if Lukashenko can use Wagner rather than the Russian army to shore up his own regime. I would not be surprised to hear Prigozhin had accidentally fallen out a window of a tall building, and only slightly surprised to hear he is Belarus’ next defense minister.
Yeah it seems like he smartly sold at the top here. He wasn’t going to have any more advantageous of a position and he cashed it in at the perfect time.
> Prigozhin realized that he could try to take Moscow, but he'd ultimately be defeated, Putin was already gone.
Cannot be - on this level it's basic/simple strategy, if he's as good as he says he is then he would have forseen such situation => I don't believe in a "sudden realization/enlightenment" by Prigozhin.
Yes, I don't think Prigozhin had any sudden realization that there was a gap in his plan. My guess is that he was in some way out maneuvered. I don't mean that purely in a military sense of maneuvering troops/resources etc. From the long history of brutal internal struggles and backstabbing, my shot in the dark guess is that he was counting on support from key individuals in power and it either never materialized or was withdrawn.
I think it's also possible that it was never a legitimate attempt on his part. He may never have expected it to succeed, but it would cause enough problems that it forced Russian leadership to back away and be willing to cut a deal that lets Prigozhin keep his life (for now) in exile. He'd been incrementally pushing things for months for a variety of reasons (real anger over lack of material support? Pure power play? Who knows). But unlike critical journalists, oligarchs and political enemies that have been assassinated over the years, Prigozhin had an army to use as leverage. Though I still won't be surprised if he's the next person to fall out a window or die from a novel poisoning method.
I'm not sure. Surovikin was generally regarded as a friend of Prigozhin, and so I was surprised when he publicly appealed for Wagner to stop. Now I'm wondering if it was part of the plan all along? Prigozhin exposes Putin as a paper tiger, now sits back (surrounded by tens of thousands of troops to protect him) and waits for Ukraine to win, without him being blamed for it. Then he steps into the Kremlin. Maybe?
A demonstration of strength by that oddball player who was never really respected by his peers because he didn't go to the right school but who somehow got along very well with the big boss.Except on those days they fall out. His co-underlings were envious of that, likely plotted a little, therefore the outsider had to posture to reassert his position. Posture he did, now the big boss says I forgive you if you come back at my side. To the "from the right school" underlings this is a clear message that they have to accept the outsider. Prigoshin won, not what he claimed to strive for (though he would have taken that in a pinch I guess) but what he actually wanted.
It's an incredibly weird situation. Putin can't kill Prigozhin without compromising his ability to ever make future deals with his underlings, but he also cannot allow him to live and maintain his image of being in control of Russia.
Well, there is one more likely answer.
he was complaining about who will control businesses in the territories that were occupied by his gangs. Might that be that he got what he wanted and viola?
The logic is good but implies you MUST go for it. I can’t imagine he’s so stupid as to not see that. Crossing the rubicon means you can’t go back.
I am reminded of the story:
Chen Sheng was an officer serving the Qin Dynasty, famous for their draconian punishments. He was supposed to lead his army to a rendezvous point, but he got delayed by heavy rains and it became clear he was going to arrive late.
Chen turns to his friend Wu Guang and asks “What’s the penalty for being late?”
“Death,” says Wu.
“And what’s the penalty for rebellion?”
“Death,” says Wu.
“Well then…” says Chen Sheng.
And thus began the famous Dazexiang Uprising, which caused thousands of deaths and helped usher in a period of instability and chaos that resulted in the fall of the Qin Dynasty three years later.
Really. It's a threshold problem. If the penalty for shoplifting is death, and the penalty for a massacre is death, a good number of sociopathic shoplifters will gamble for freedom via massacre. (It's rational.)
It's why dictatorships consistently flame out. If there is no peaceful transition of power, losing power means death. That incentivises a dictator on the edge to take risks that otherwise make no sense because even a minute chance of success is worth it.
In the context of a Russian revolution, this animates concerns around our species' first nuclear civil war.
> The most likely answer for what is going on here is the one right on the surface. Prigozhin realized that he could try to take Moscow, but he'd ultimately be defeated
I think this coupled with the military didn’t seem to come over to his side in large enough numbers quickly enough indicated it was going to be a real fight, and not a one or two day affair. Otherwise, yes, Progozhin is a dead man walking.
IMO the friendly fire on his camp was a cover/false flag to begin the "march for justice". The coordination/speed his coup attempt had couldn't be set up in such a short amount of time (since the "friendly fire" incident), so it was planned for at least a few weeks.
> It would also drag units away from Ukraine to deal with him and undermine Russian efforts in the face of the Ukrainian offensive.
Prigozhin has been repeatedly casting doubt on the decision of attacking Ukraine for the past couple of weeks. He went as far as rejecting Russian propaganda on how Ukraine provoked it and stating that Ukraine only reacted to Russian's military presence. He even proceeded to pin the blame of this Russian quagmire on Putin and the Russian MoD.
Before starting the military coup, Prigozhin laid the groundwork to pin Russia's invasion of Ukraine as betraying Russia by weakening it. Keeping Russia's armed forces in Ukraine was also critical for the success of his military coup.
I don't think your scenario is plausible. There's something else in play.
It was a huge miscalculation. Even Russians that hate Putin are not going to be comfortable with support for a coup from a private military.
Peter Zeihan stated the obvious in a video on this that Wagner would have been decimated from the air on their way to Moscow too. I don't think you need to attend an Army war college to figure that out.
Ultimately, someone crazy enough to build a giant private army is going to do crazy things.
None of this seems good to me unless one is cheering for the doomsday clock to strike midnight.
567 comments
[ 3.0 ms ] story [ 339 ms ] threadhttps://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
Edit: I know that (as of this moment) the story may have passed its sensational peak - if so, that's a good thing on HN. We're trying for reflective, not reflexive, conversation here: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sor....
Edit: ok, I've changed the title from "Putin vows to put down rebellion by Wagner chief Prigozhin".
edit: I originally posted this as a reply to https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36460954 but that was a dumb idea (sorry pmarreck). I don't want to single out a particular user and didn't mean to shame anyone.
I feel it's kinda insulting the tone here. I see this trend in hacker news that we use the guidelines as a way to insult or belittle other people's comments. It's agressive but in a cunny way.
(but I shouldn't have used a moderation reply as a place to ask "everyone" something, since that could inadvertently generate a mob reaction and that's the last thing we want here)
Moderation comments are never intended as an insult or aggressive, but of course it's all too easy to come across that way without meaning to. If you or anyone wants to suggest ways to be more neutral about bringing up the guidelines, I'd be happy to take advice about it. However, that's different from changing the moderation standard, which is well established on HN.
Moderation isn't about assessing who's right or wrong on a topic. That's the community's job, and I'm pretty sure the bulk of the community would not at all appreciate it if we tried to take that role.
Still, I think posters need to accept some expressive/emotive language in discourse. 'Good luck with that' may be a trope as a way to sarcastically express skepticism, but it's hardly offensive or conversation-terminating.I like to know how people are feeling in regard to a contentious topic, whether or not I find them or their argument agreeable. draining away all emotion/idiom introduces its own problems; callous or cruel remarks may be couched in pseudo-objectivity and the language of necessity/inevitability.
The comment in question didn't add anything to the discussion, it was just a snarky remark. Hence no actual exchange of views could be derived from it, only insults between factions.
I can't agree that I missed the mark on that comment - what I said seems well within standard mod practice on HN. But it's fine that you disagree - there's always going to be disagreement on specific cases, since we all have different backgrounds and therefore different perceptions. It's the principles that matter.
The denominator is necessarily small as we're talking about a breaking news story obscured by the fog of war. If this is the bar that comments still have to reach in this context, then I wonder if the story should just remain flagged.
I'm not sure I'm ready to let go of that phrase though. Probably it includes more than I managed to capture in my attempted definition upthread.
you just described a majority of discussions around AI/Chat GPT here. Or around twitter/facebook/etc. using this criteria they should be outright banned from here.
Our debates on Twitter, Facebook, crypto, and AI are pithy because we all know the topics well, and have mostly made up our minds about them. Often there’s not a lot to add not included in the article.
they are pithy yet shallow. full of "grandiose rhetoric". "made up our minds" doesn't equal "sufficiently knowledgeable"
Positional without explicit or evident basis.
https://t.me/s/apwagner
That was the most intense war played out over cyber channels I've seen.
Telegram, Twitter, some idiot on LinkedIn. OSINT everywhere. Lots of blocked sites in Russia. Possible attacks on Google maps. A shame HN opted out. You get this sort of thing once a decade. I guess with the internet exploding it might happen again sooner.
It doesn't matter which side we're talking about. This kind of thing is insane and dehumanized.
(Obviously, I am being sarcastic.)
That's why dang initially let the flagging persist. Wait and see what's real and what's not, then we can have a proper discussion.
The "Gifter" is a Times subscriber. Subscribers can gift 10 articles a month to non-subscribers.
The tinfoil hat is handy but jesus christ my dude.
The problem is that many OSINT guys and journalists are informationally illiterate and blindly spread fakes from random Telegram and Twitter accounts.
- current military leaders are being removed
- new contract cancelled
Makes Putin look rather weak.
That's the problem for these kinds of strongmen dictators - any sign of weakness is a major political problem and one which he may not outlive. And in fairness to Stalin (and you won't hear me complementing Stalin too much usually), he didn't flee Moscow in 1941 when other armies were approaching.
At this point, I think Prigozhin is more likely trying to get a deal to leave russia and keep his billions & life.
Highly doubt Wagner will be kept around and likely the defense minister will be kept. That said, the defense minister ran away in the fighting, probably justification to sack him
Everyone knows, even in russia, that the war is a desaster.
And now Prigoshin and his Wagner forces, who stood for the only few victories in the last time, turned against Putin. (Even stating, that the war was wrong in the first place and that there never was a threat from Ukraine towards russia.)
And Wagner has the reputation of being ruthless and efficient.
The common national guards really don't want to fight them. They could surely bomb them all to death, but then who will fight and win for russia?
There is currently a ukraine offensive going on. And Wagner occupied an important military HQ in rostov. They will never forgive Prigoshin for that, that is sure, but he plays the only card he has - brute force.
And they came already within 250 km of moscow with little resistance. But that is also, because they don't want to actually fight.
I guess it's too hard to tell signals from noises.
Oddly enough on some more of the hypothetical and conspiratorial parts of the net possibilities like this have been discussed for weeks. It's just so odd to see this happen in real life.
To me this looked like an “all in”, but apparently, they think it wasn’t. What could have convinced him and his troops that any promises made would be held?
Are there historical precedents for this kind of action where the revolter stopped their advance, and lived happily ever after?
My guess is that he was counting on support from within the Russian power structure that was promised but then didn't materialize, and now he knows that following through would be suicide, and giving up at least offers a non-zero chance of survival.
Another possible explanation: it was a setup, planned by Putin from beginning to end in order to improve his strongman image and eliminate Wagner as a threat. Prigozhin was given the offer to play along and end up powerless but rich - and alive. That offer could be credible because if Prigozhin gives up control of Wagner, he helped Putin and is not a threat to him anymore.
One thing that doesn't make sense to me is that Prigozhin used an alleged Russian missile attack on a wagner base as justification to start this charade. If the Russian government really wanted to neutralize Wagner, one can only think they would have taken more effective and quick measures to do so, rather than a half-hassed missile attack. There's no logic behind it, some piece of the puzzle is missing.
You can't assemble those forces in a moments notice.
You can't expect no resistance on the way to the capital.
In some way he succeeded into putting as much distance as possible between himself and the Ukraine counterattack (even if this means selling Wagner to the Russian army in exchange for a golden ticket for himself and the Wagner leaders). All without looking like a treason towards the rest of mercenaries.
Would not surprise me if the other wagnerites will be forced to enter in the Russian army and used routinely as cannon fodder, as they did before with the Russian soldiers.
So Prigozhin:
- marched unopposed until he was 200 km from Moscow
- military scrambled to build defenses around Moscow
- Prigozhin's forces downed at least two military aircraft
- Prigozhin's forces had an unopposed military presence in Rostov, population 1.1 mln people
In the end:
- deal was supposrdly negotiated by a widely disrespected Lukashenko, not by Putin.
- all charges dropped
How's that strongman image coming along?
Lukashenko is Putin's puppet; Putin couldn't negotiate in first person without appearing as weak. It's possible that both Prigozhin and Putin tested their own strength and concluded that they both can be hurt badly. I believe that we'll know more by looking at what will happen to Shoigu and Gerasimov in the next days.
Ah yes, instead it was negotiated by the unpopular ridiculed Lukashenko everyone views as a clown. This makes Putin seem strong.
Also strong:
Putin in the morning: these traitors will be brought to justice, I authorize Ministry of Defence to use any means possible. I give you my word.
Putin in the evening: we drop all charges against this military coup (who also killed at least 12 soldiers furing their march on Moscow), and I give my word the Prigozhin can just go to Belarus.
So strong.
It's funny how putinophiles will try to contort reality to a ridiculous degree to find an angle to prove Putin is a superhuman playing 12-dimensional chess.
Now imagine any Western leader doing the same, and how you would ridicule them.
Moreover, note that the two Russian officials shown talking with Prigozhin in Rostov are Shoigu's #2 and Gerasimov #2. They didn't seem entirely comfortable in that video, but that sends a message nonetheless. Also, Prigozhin never addressed Putin directly. There's a lot of stuff going on there, probably too much to draw conclusions, but I'm sure we'll see some people "disappear" or die of "natural causes" quite soon.
You literally wrote "Putin couldn't negotiate in first person without appearing as weak."
And you started with "it was a setup, planned by Putin from beginning to end in order to improve his strongman image".
I've listed most of the things that actually happened. How does any of this improve his strongman image?
I never wrote that. It was a quote from a post 2 levels up.
Thats not how russia works. In russia you show up with a gun, say "Im Tzar now" and everyone obeys out of fear. Occupying main centers of power in Moscow (MoD, TV, Kremlin) would be enough for Prigozhin to claim being the new ruler. That one brigade "defending" Moscow didnt even have heavy weapons. Wagner tanks would cut thru them like hot knife.
That makes sense, yes. It may have been real world Diplomacy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diplomacy_(game)): “if you attack Moscow, I’ll support you” with a backstab.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stab-in-the-back_myth
I presume they mean stuff like not enough ammunition, no air support, and so on.
Another possible explanation: he got the backing of some faction inside the Kremlin, but they did not really back him when push came to shove.
Putin got where he was through reality-TV-level ostentatious displays of strength. Prigozhin likely figured he was the only one who could boast measurable gains in the war, and the same tactics would work for him.
My guess is his miscalculation was assuming he was more popular among the rank-and-file Russian military and police than he is, and it's too early to tell if that's actually a miscalculation.
2. His aims/agenda probably doesn't match ours.
- Prigozhin is entirely aligned with Putin.
- However, there's some ambiguity regarding the army's leadership complete allegiance to Putin.
Thus, the crux of the matter appears to be the strategy to displace specific factions within the army and replace them with supporters of Putin.
That is 100% against every major decision of Putin and a direct attack to his authority, even though he softened it up by stating he was wrongly informed by the military.
In other words, he is saying that poor Putin was deceived but these evil people from Ministry of Defence.
It's always his trustees that fail the tsar.
The check was going to be if military leadership changed and it all resolved peacefully.
Guess what happened.
This is the kind of event you need to look at on maps. There's a freeway all the way from Rostov to Moscow. It's flat country in good weather. The first big natural obstacle is the bridges at the Oka River, and Russian Federation armored units are reportedly already in position at those bridges. So that's where the major battle would have been.
Re: "absolute torrent of information". No. A small amount of information relayed through different paths and amplified. Be aware of that.
I see this as a continuation of what this whole debacle is all about: regime change.
A large part of the official motivation behind this invasion is preventing civil war in Russia. That's why Ukraine was supposed to be "stabilized".
Putin presents himself as a source of stability and that's how he's perceived for the most part.
To attempt to upend this order is to be either foolish, or very certain of one's position with hard data to back that up. Prigozhin still hasn't been defenestrated, so I suppose it's more the latter than the former.
There may be some serious internal power struggle that an outside observer cannot see, but it's far more likely that the invasion was not a desperation move, but just one of the many steps that Putin makes to increase his internal perception of legitimacy.
There's no reason, besides our domestic propaganda and wishful/magical thinking to believe that it was a desperation move from him. His internal-to-Russia legitimacy was quite high prior to the war.
(And it's hard to tell what it is now, because of the crackdown on speech and dissent. So you get political pundits who are talking out their ass four fifths of the time assuring is that no, this time, he's totally on the brink of being out, pinky swear...)
----
Bonus points: If most of your military command is staffed by spineless bootlickers, who were promoted for their loyalty, as opposed to competence, they are very unlikely to join any rebellion against you. There's a good reason for a nation that is secure from outside invasion to have an incompetent military...
This past day was weird, but seems to be the exception that... Proves the rule?
If this is the case, then this isn't going to be the Russian Civil War/Coup that people had hoped to end the war. Russia is certainly a mess though, and this might cause other political forces in Russia to act.
In other words: APCs on a highway are not that different from intercity buses, and highways are designed to let you cross the country quickly.
Highways let you move fast only as long as they're intact and no one is shooting at you; otherwise, they make you an easy target. Russian army experienced that first-hand in the first two months of their invasion of Ukraine.
my point was that they tried and they failed. wagner has a bunch of manpads and few pantsir sam systems. they tried to bomb them on highway from planes but missed and kill civilians in track. they also tried to shoot at them missles at voronezh but blew up some petrol refinary. they also tried to bomb some bridge to block road to moscow - but also missed
No, I believe the oil refinery got blown up by a Wagner surface to air missile. The Wagners were trying to shoot down a federal Ka-52, the helicopter successfully deployed countermeasures, and the missile flew off target into the backstop - which happened to be a refinery.
There are two videos of the event from different angles circulating on telegram, it's pretty clear.
It surely was considered. I can imagine in the state of panic even tactical nukes were considered, but sure, not reasonable.
But if Wagner forces would have actually pushed through, then they definitely would have blown up bridges, if the alternative would have been Moscow under siege or house to house fighting.
Edit: here's a link but this is not on the main highway. Unsure of the scale of this "operation" and if this was ordered from top brass or local initiative.
https://meduza.io/news/2023/06/24/v-lipetskoy-oblasti-gde-na...
Especially if there's been reports it's seriously been considered in Ukraine.
NATO is not what it was before 1989, and will take decades to come back up to a minimally acceptable level.
And some things do take decades, even in perfect conditions. Building up a navy takes time due to the long construction timelines for ships. Developing coordination for combined arms operations requires both good officers and non-coms. These take time to develop as well, and need to be continually sustained.
If you focus efforts, it doesn’t take long at all.
And surely you understand that the US economy and state of industry in 1943 (when the Liberty ships were being launched daily) is quite different than today? Only one country currently has the shipbuilding capacity to even think of something like that. The US (and Europe) have closed down a huge number of shipyards since the end of the Cold War, and it would take decades to create new ones, with trained workforces. All the US shipyards are short workers in almost all categories.
This one statement means you don’t know what you’re talking about. Non commissioned officers are E4 rank, you can leave bootcamp at E3 rank. 6 months later get E4. NCO only requires experience at the E7 or above level, which don’t fight only lead.
The name Kriegsmarine, when used to describe the German Navy, has extremly strong WW2 connotations, on a similar level as "Wehrmacht". :)
NATO simply has neither the stockpiles nor the production capacity to enter this war.
Can you?
That's the amusing part. The sad part is that the people behind the troll farms still think they're fooling anybody in the West.
And of course marching towards Moscow only staying hundrends of kilometers away from it (while being let to march), and "taking Moscow in a matter of hours" is a totally different thing.
i think you overestimate russian military might. russian military is second strongest military in russia those days
prior to this, last month, some RDK and Russian Legion performed ~10km deep incursions into russia, pretty much unopposed and stayed there for a days.
so no, it's not only onliners. it's just state of russian state. where everything is fake and for show
Reality is ground forces let wagner pass out of fear/solidarity. Only aviation tried, and failed hard to stop the convoy.
Or worse, complaining that his image is unpresidential?
What the actual fuck?
What do you think all of Prigozhin’s videos are?
I sincerely would have been more likely to believed that Putin is ran evil warmonger, and that Zelenskyy is a paragon, if it wasn’t the case there was so much of this top-down pressure in the US to make sure people don’t accidentally pick the wrong side to root for.
If I saw that the facts were plainly speaking for themselves I would believe them. But they aren’t, so I have to be very critical.
I understand the need for this propaganda in Ukraine for the sake of Ukrainians. I don’t understand why in the US, Ukrainian propaganda has a state sanctioned monopoly over Russian propaganda.
Your take on propaganda because a president of a country being invaded doesn't dress the part you expect is seriously bizarre. You're not being critical, you are being cynical.
Since that was the aspect of the propaganda that was relevant at the moment, that’s what I focused on. But it is a tiny part of the whole, and yes on its own I agree that it appears quite trivial and inconsequential. But when mass media (including new media) ceaselessly bombards the entire population with tiny things like this over the course of years, then it has a very real and drastic effect. And most nefarious of all, because this kind of propoganda is ever present and so subtle, it is almost invisible. And when you do point out any one of its many aspects you get responses exactly like this: that it is trivial and inconsequential and why don’t I just get with the program, and isn’t it obvious there’s good guys and there’s bad guys and isn’t it obvious who is who.
And this is the cynical post-modernist post-truth part that I criticise about your position. It's just a doubt of everything, of what's even real, and so you are just playing your part of the propaganda that made you think that way. The issue in post-truth is that your take is just another parroted version of "what's even real?". Even on this case, where it's pretty clear who are the bad guys, you prefer to be cynical and not even believe what your eyes can see.
You've been bombarded by subtle or overt propaganda your whole life, by governments and corporations. It's not by being cynical that you are somehow better than others or not being influenced by it, you aren't immune to it by believing nothing. Or by being a contrarian.
There is no reason to believe anything in the media. Anyone who doesn’t suffer from Gell-Mann amnesia should know this is the right stance, it’s not even necessary to believe that it’s all propaganda to reach this conclusion.
Even more because you won't ever be able to verify every single piece of information yourself, you don't have access to all the data possible to verify it. You don't have access to people.
Again, you not trusting anything is the result of falling for propaganda that told you that nothing is trustworthy.
Are you going to reproduce every single scientific experiment to be able to verify them? Are you going to travel to every single place that has news about to interview people yourself and get your own conclusions? Nope, you just don't believe anything, you went to the extreme cynicism side.
It's impossible to achieve what you wrote, it's a lie you tell yourself because it's uncomfortable to trust, there's no truth except your own and that is... Very, very post-modern.
Very start of an invasion doesn't feel like a great time to be broadcasting your exact location. Also maybe not a great time to be doing outtakes in the open streets.
I don't have a whole lot of information to say whether he actually stayed or not. I assume there would be a ton of credible evidence in one direction or the other - photos, videos, etc. But either way, I'm just saying that I could definitely understand the need for a professional studio and obfuscation of location.
Again, President Biden has used a fake Oval Office several times:
https://www.newsweek.com/why-white-house-built-fake-oval-off...
What would it take for the US president to leave Washington DC though? Obviously a real possibility of nuclear war. What else though?
Also President Madison evacuated Washington, DC during the War of 1812.
Where would he go? Australia ?
There's the Pentagon, Raven Rock Mountain Complex, Mount Weather Emergency Operations Center, Cheyenne Mountain Complex, the Greenbrier bunker, the Peters Mountain facility, 33 Thomas Street, nearly a dozen aircraft carriers, Camp David, and god knows how many military bases.
Or he could just board the doomsday fleet of E-4Bs and stay in the air
Government Continuity of Operations:
Continuity of Operations (COOP) is a United States federal government initiative, required by U.S. Presidential Policy Directive 40 (PPD-40), to ensure that agencies are able to continue performance of essential functions under a broad range of circumstances. PPD-40 specifies certain requirements for continuity plan development, including the requirement that all federal executive branch departments and agencies develop an integrated, overlapping continuity capability, that supports the eight National Essential Functions (NEFs) described in the document.
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_governme...>
See also:
Post Attack Command and Control System: <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_Attack_Command_and_Contro...>
United States Continuity of Operations Facilities: <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Continuity_of_Op...>
<https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/pdd/pdd-67.htm>
Nowhere. AF1 can be refueled in the air indefinitely, and carries enough food and water for several days. You ground civilian traffic and shoot down anything non-military in the air; nothing's getting to you.
Note: I support Ukraine, Russia is absolutely in the wrong
That’s an absolute win, for Prigozhin, since that was the original goal
this internal issue has nothing to do with anyone outside of that region
thats a pretty big shakeup. “I dont like this guy and there is no political process to remove him so I brought in my private army, the President fleed and he resigned in 10 hours”
Seems like a terrible outcome for Putin. He looks really weak and presumably just lost most if not all of Wagner, who were his most effective troops. He might have Prigozhin poisoned, but that would probably cause further instability internally as it causes more of his leadership to realize he'll clearly betray anybody and his word isn't worth anything.
That remains to be seen? Might be that some of their warriors will take the offer to join the military, and others... might select (or be given) new leadership, and go back to Ukraine to resume their regular business there.
If this really was Prigozhin vs. MoD, then that particular issue might be a closed case. Mercenaries are what they are - they're loyal to themselves and money, not state policy. Prigozhin got them to march at Moscow, so they did; then got them to march back, safe and sound, so they did. Russian government can just say "okay, no shots fired, no hard feelings" and leave it at that; it's not like they trusted them in the first place.
Putin angle though, that's a new thing. One way of spinning today's events is that Prigozhin took a swing at the Tsar, missed, and still lived to talk about it. Leaving it at that is not safe for the Tsar.
As of right this second. I hope his affairs are in order because the writing is on the wall.
I’m not saying that was the original plan, but even just moving 20K Wagner troop as part of the deal, even with no intention of attack, would draw a significant chunk of ukraines attention.
And if the Ukrainians don’t move additional defense, then an opportunistic attack might be on the table for some exchange that would be mutually beneficial to the Russian factions.
Let me be clear, this was not meant to be a grand ruse, but that doesn’t it can’t be turned in to one after the fact in order for the opposing Russian sides to salvage their situation.
Maybe he thought more parts of the army would back him?
Cannot be - on this level it's basic/simple strategy, if he's as good as he says he is then he would have forseen such situation => I don't believe in a "sudden realization/enlightenment" by Prigozhin.
I think it's also possible that it was never a legitimate attempt on his part. He may never have expected it to succeed, but it would cause enough problems that it forced Russian leadership to back away and be willing to cut a deal that lets Prigozhin keep his life (for now) in exile. He'd been incrementally pushing things for months for a variety of reasons (real anger over lack of material support? Pure power play? Who knows). But unlike critical journalists, oligarchs and political enemies that have been assassinated over the years, Prigozhin had an army to use as leverage. Though I still won't be surprised if he's the next person to fall out a window or die from a novel poisoning method.
I am reminded of the story:
Chen Sheng was an officer serving the Qin Dynasty, famous for their draconian punishments. He was supposed to lead his army to a rendezvous point, but he got delayed by heavy rains and it became clear he was going to arrive late.
Chen turns to his friend Wu Guang and asks “What’s the penalty for being late?”
“Death,” says Wu.
“And what’s the penalty for rebellion?”
“Death,” says Wu.
“Well then…” says Chen Sheng.
And thus began the famous Dazexiang Uprising, which caused thousands of deaths and helped usher in a period of instability and chaos that resulted in the fall of the Qin Dynasty three years later.
Really. It's a threshold problem. If the penalty for shoplifting is death, and the penalty for a massacre is death, a good number of sociopathic shoplifters will gamble for freedom via massacre. (It's rational.)
It's why dictatorships consistently flame out. If there is no peaceful transition of power, losing power means death. That incentivises a dictator on the edge to take risks that otherwise make no sense because even a minute chance of success is worth it.
In the context of a Russian revolution, this animates concerns around our species' first nuclear civil war.
To repeat myself from another comment: haven't we hadn't enough examples of smart people being stupid lately?
I think this coupled with the military didn’t seem to come over to his side in large enough numbers quickly enough indicated it was going to be a real fight, and not a one or two day affair. Otherwise, yes, Progozhin is a dead man walking.
Prigozhin has been repeatedly casting doubt on the decision of attacking Ukraine for the past couple of weeks. He went as far as rejecting Russian propaganda on how Ukraine provoked it and stating that Ukraine only reacted to Russian's military presence. He even proceeded to pin the blame of this Russian quagmire on Putin and the Russian MoD.
Before starting the military coup, Prigozhin laid the groundwork to pin Russia's invasion of Ukraine as betraying Russia by weakening it. Keeping Russia's armed forces in Ukraine was also critical for the success of his military coup.
I don't think your scenario is plausible. There's something else in play.
Peter Zeihan stated the obvious in a video on this that Wagner would have been decimated from the air on their way to Moscow too. I don't think you need to attend an Army war college to figure that out.
Ultimately, someone crazy enough to build a giant private army is going to do crazy things.
None of this seems good to me unless one is cheering for the doomsday clock to strike midnight.
Maybe trying to force flip some Aces - and when they didn’t come up he retreated
> It was very likely just a rash miscalculation by Prigozhin
Situation became untenable with MoD trying to enlist Private troops - reaction must have been anticipated
How are things in regular army that they have to ingest Wagner contractors ?