Some of these anecdotes about Keynes remind me of the bit from Theory of Everything where Hawking and his wife are entertaining a guest. The guest asks Hawking what he is working on and Hawking replies that he is attempting to prove black holes don't exist.
"But I thought you'd proven that black holes do exist?" inquires the guest.
I sent my father in law an article the other day, and he wound up clicking a scam ad that got his computer hacked. He showed it to me, it wasn't the most obviously scammy ad I've seen- plenty of people who didn't grow up with the internet might have fallen for it!
But anyway, on my laptop, the article was just clean text and a byline with some well-formatted images.
Failing to install ublock on your parents computer is a form of abuse! :-)
Of course it’s important to also not accept without question the facts that a person gives you, because people do lie. For example, do you really think that shirt is 40% off today only? That’s probably just a lie. I saw a TikTok video yesterday that showed a picture showing a picture of a girl with an underdeveloped jaw and the voiceover said it was because she breathed through her mouth too much. One of the comments pointed out that this is actually a specific genetic condition. So the poster of the TikTok invented a new “fact” out of thin air and presented it as truth. To change my mind based on that would be a mistake.
This is what I've tried to instill in those that I've had the opportunity to preach on a soapbox. It is not wrong to have a belief that is different from others. It is also not wrong to not immediately change those beliefs when presented counter information so that you may take time to interpret what that new information means. If you decide that new information is correct, it is also not wrong to change your beliefs based on the new information. It is also not wrong to question the source of the new information.
I'll add to be wise enough to distinguish from topics you should have your opinion drom those ypi shouldn't. E.g. a brain surgeon and his views on quantum physics, said surgeon should have an opinion on brain surgery, a good one that changes based on his qualified evaluation of new facts while he is perfectly fine of jist going with whatever the latest consensus regarding Higgs bosoms or some other quantum physics topic is. If that makes any sense.
This subject can quickly become a fascinating epistemological journey into solipsism, semiotics, and cognitive biases.
A "lie" implies intent to deceive or mislead, but not all false facts are shared with such intent. You may be interested in Harry Frankfurt's 1986 essay On Bullshit [0] and the 2005 book of the same name, which has been discussed on HN before [1].
In the context of investing there's also the problem of recency bias. You see investors arguing whether "the facts have changed" as to whether investors should invest outside the U.S., for example, when U.S. stocks have done well for a decade, and other investors accusing the U.S. only group of having recency bias.
Is that entirely recency bias, or also changing facts? Economies are very interconnected now. It's hard to imagine a scenario today where a global economic power enters a large recession, but there's some other economy out there that gets by relatively unscathed. And by that I specifically mean: providing a return differential large enough to justify the upside risk of investing there in the first place.
Since 2018 U.S. stocks have returned 9.59% per year (I checked with Portfolio Visualizer) and international stocks have returns 1.83%. I don't see how that supports the idea that economies are very interconnected and investing outside the country can't produce a large return differential.
We also haven't had a official recession in the U.S. over that time period, I believe, so the topic of recession seems like a red herring.
> Since 2018 U.S. stocks have returned 9.59% per year (I checked with Portfolio Visualizer) and international stocks have returns 1.83%.
Right, so there's your 8% per year upside risk. So during US recessions, do international stocks provide a differential return against US stocks that is high enough to support that 8% yearly upside risk?
(And, even if they do, now it's a matter of timing the market...)
> I don't see how that supports the idea that economies are very interconnected and investing outside the country can't produce a large return differential.
I didn't say it wouldn't provide any differential. I implied that that differential will either always be negative or positive but small enough that it's not worth moving.
Or, in other words, US or European recessions would equally tank foreign investments dependent on US or European consumers. Of course these markets would be somewhat resistant based on the strength of their own local economies, but are those economies strong enough to provide solid returns through a US or European recession? And if they are, is the differential high enough to risk the 8% yearly upside during non-recessions?
I've never heard an investment expert use a term like "8% yearly upside risk" and suspect there's some errors in your thinking.
Look at it this way:
Imagine you have $200 dollars to invest. You can invest in country A or Country B. You know in a year one country will be up 10% and one will be up 1%. You don't know which country will be up the 10% and which will be up the 1%.
In a year, you need $205 dollars. Unless you like to live dangerously the rational thing to do is invest equally in both countries where you'll get a 6 dollar return. If you pick a single country you'll have a 50% chance of not having enough money.
Of course real world investing is more complicated, but my example demonstrates it's about probabilities of success at meeting your goals. Country A and country B have equal expected returns but investing in both decreases the probability of running out of money when you need it. Or it should, if we've modeled the expected returns of each country correctly.
It is impossible or next to impossible to investigate most of the facts. For example, if somebody would say that "People in Bhutan eat stones", how would you find if it is true or not? You don't know the language. You probably don't know where to find local Bhutan news, forums, social networks.
Or if someone would say that "Celebrity X visited a factory of company Y in China". Even if you find a Chinese search engine and use online translator, you can easily waste days. E.g. how do you find out how Western names are spelled in Chinese text? There's no single answer, especially if a person is not worldwide popular.
From my personal experience: I live in Russia. When I read what is published in Western media about life in Russia, I'm flabbergasted every time at the blatant lies and exaggerations. Though I guess it's roughly similar to what I read in our media about Western countries. But if I'd try to dispel some myths on social networks or in comments, I'll be banned or at best called "Kremlin troll", so I no longer even try to do it.
You can use trusted sources, and comparative sources to increase your confidence level.
So, for example I followed a Ukrainian youtuber who said he was leaving because of the invasion, that added considerably to my confidence. Also, meeting refugees arrive in the UK displaced from the Russian invasion made for near 100% confidence that it was actually happening (a video of a couple of tanks on a highway just looks like propaganda however, but the tanks were probably there, something happened [it wasn't impressive enough to be AI generated!]).
As for comparatives: if BBC, Al Jazeera, Russia Today all agree on details (in the context of the Russian war) then I'm pretty confident. Though the Wagner situation appears to be a subterfuge, as all these sources are reporting it I'm confident that vehicles were driven towards Moscow in at least an attempt to display to the World that something was happening.
What is an example of a large lie that you see in Western media today, that you confirm to be untrue from direct personal experience?
What is a trusted source? How can I find one? I think this is close to impossible. Of course, everyone reads what one consider "trusted" source, but I have doubt any of them is.
> So, for example I followed a Ukrainian youtuber who said he was leaving because of the invasion, that added considerably to my confidence. Also, meeting refugees arrive in the UK displaced from the Russian invasion made for near 100% confidence that it was actually happening (a video of a couple of tanks on a highway just looks like propaganda however, but the tanks were probably there, something happened [it wasn't impressive enough to be AI generated!]).
But does this prove anything at all? E.g. half of my family lives in Ukraine. You wouldn't believe and it's never mentioned in Western media, but large percent of Ukraine population is Russian. Actually, it's almost impossible to distinguish who's Russian and who's Ukrainian. What is the difference? My family is originally from Ukraine, but I consider myself Russian.
So, my relatives from Ukraine were always telling me completely different stories from official Western stories. E.g. about neo-nazi movement in Ukraine which became very active since 1991 according to my relatives.
> What is an example of a large lie that you see in Western media today, that you confirm to be untrue from direct personal experience?
I do not collect such stories (what would be the point?), but meanwhile I'm looking for some examples, I'll tell you that for several years I've browsed Western media and specifically searched for news from Russia on CNN, Washington Post, Bloomberg, and other prominent Western media websites.
One thing that is impossible to ignore is that all news from Russia are strictly negative. Even if they're true, this is clearly one sided presentation of situation to demonstrate to Western readers that "Everything is bad in Russia". I couldn't read anything positive about Russia in English for many years. It's always the same bingo bullshit composed out of "dictatorship", "bad Putin", "bad Russians", "Russian hackers", yadda, yadda.
I've just did a search `russia site:https://www.washingtonpost.com/`. While I cannot pinpoint an outright lie, because there're tons of results and I don't have much time now, you can easily see that there's a common theme in all the news articles: "Russia is bad", "Situation in Russia is awful", "Some unnamed source confirms that Putin is bad/afraid/eats babies for breakfast". Whatever year you put in the search: 2023, 2022, 2020, 2018, etc.
First, thanks for your participation here. It's very helpful and important to have voices from the people who actually live in these countries present in the discussion (especially yours). Your English is fantastic, BTW.
You wouldn't believe and it's never mentioned in Western media, but large percent of Ukraine population is Russian.
Actually it's mentioned all the time. As is the neo-Nazi stuff. That said, there are all kind of people in Western countries, and many (especially in the U.S.) are quite ignorant and couldn't even find Ukraine on the map. And certainly don't read anything that doesn't pop up whatever news feed they have on their phone.
So even though these details about Ukraine/Russian a certainly mentioned in the media often enough, not surprisingly they just won't stick with many people.
To try to get to the main content of what you're saying - it seems to come down to this (which I am editing down slightly, but only to keep it short):
It is impossible or next to impossible to investigate most of the facts... I think this is close to impossible [to find trusted sources].
I agree that it can easily seem so from the outside, if one reads these sources only occasionally. But over time ... a long time, especially when one grows up hearing and reading these news outlets all the time ... a certain pattern emerges.
Specifically some sources are, at least one it comes to the basic factual narrative -- much more reliable than others. That is, basically true to fact, basically professional. They do screw up sometimes, and are sometimes fooled.
It isn't easy to tell just be reading only a few sources, or reading them occasionally. But over time -- one sees that their reporting (again, of basic facts) largely overlaps with the others are saying. Also, some of them have highly professional journalists who have lived in these countries (including yours), and know what they're talking about.
And also, what they report (again as to facts) aligns closely with what one can gather from friends or relatives. And of course from visiting these countries directly, and talking to people there.
Basically one can put WSJ, NYT, WaPo, Bloomberg and a few others in this box. CNN and BBC to some extent also (though they are frankly somewhat "dumber" than the first 4 and have much less original reporting). I could mention other sources (in other languages even) because of course not everything revolves around U.S. media sources, but I'm trying to keep things simple here.
That said -- they do have strong biases as to opinion. But in the above group -- while sometimes irritating (and in my view basically wrong) -- still not obnoxiously or fanatically so. Some people call them "propaganda" outlets, but I disagree (and find those do say that to usually have extreme political views themselves, on one end of the spectrum or the other).
Bottom line -- yes one can learn to "navigate" the news, find (reasonably) trusted sources, enough to "tell up from down", that is, which ones are basicaly reliable, and which ones not.
Finally - to address one more thing you were saying - about bias and views about what's going on in Russia. I think what you're saying is partially valid, partially not. (Again, as applies to what Western media say about Russia -- not what is going on there yourself, which of course you know infinitely better than I).
For example, here are things Western media does say about Russia, often enough: "dictatorship", "bad/afraid Putin, "Russian hackers", "situation in Russia is bad".
What they don't say (and where I think you may be misreading here) are things like "Russia is bad", "bad Russians" (as a people), or "Putin eats babies for breakfast".
I hope you recognize the distinction between these two categories. Statements in the first category are ei...
>> What is a trusted source? How can I find one? I think this is close to impossible. Of course, everyone reads what one consider "trusted" source, but I have doubt any of them is.
Sounds like you have become a perfect specimen of Putinist Russia: trusting no-one, doubting everything, doing nothing.
>> So, my relatives from Ukraine were always telling me completely different stories from official Western stories. E.g. about neo-nazi movement in Ukraine which became very active since 1991 according to my relatives.
Have you tried quantifying it? For example, when someone from that part of political spectrum participated in elections, how well did they do? Did the "very active movement" ever reach even 1% of support?
>> While I cannot pinpoint an outright lie, because there're tons of results and I don't have much time now, you can easily see that there's a common theme in all the news articles: "Russia is bad", "Situation in Russia is awful", "Some unnamed source confirms that Putin is bad/afraid/eats babies for breakfast".
Why would you expect to see much positive coverage? When you google Nazi Germany, the first results aren't innovations in TV transmission nor advancements in wildlife protection either. Should they be? Is that the main contribution of Germany to the world between 1933 and 1945?
> Sounds like you have become a perfect specimen of Putinist Russia: trusting no-one, doubting everything, doing nothing.
Yep, this is typical of Westerners. We know you Russians are dumb and don't appreciate our "great democracy". Yeah, we had a taste of it in the 1990s. USA came and destroyed the country, economy, jobs, the future. CIA "advisors" with their "shock therapy" destroyed economy overnight, put dumb drunkard Yeltsin in power, and stole everything valuable they could get a hold of.
People here were dying of hunger, but West was extremely happy with the "democracy" they built here.
I trust myself and trust my country. I have no doubts we'll win. I'm doing my job, care about my family, and do many other things. I guess by "doing nothing" you mean that I'm not staging mutiny against the government in the interest of United States. Why would I? I've already lived through what US is calling "help to other countries". Also I've seen what US had done to Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and many other countries.
Only a dumb person would believe that US is interested in helping any other nation. US is destroying the economy even of its closest allies like Germany, which is especially evident now.
We call this kind of US politics: "you die today, but I die tomorrow", meaning that it would destroy anyone and anything to be able to consume more. Not only I do not support anything coming from the West because of that, but try to dissuade everyone around me if people have doubts.
> Have you tried quantifying it? For example, when someone from that part of political spectrum participated in elections, how well did they do?
How would I quantify it? From what trusted sources? Do you think there was an official neo-Nazi party in Ukraine?
> Did the "very active movement" ever reach even 1% of support?
I don't know how to quantify it, but I know that long before 2014 and 2022, Nazies were drawing crosses on doors of "Russians" in apartment buildings and promising they'll come next night and assassinate "every Russian swine living there". Also, if you'd be able to read and speak Russian and Ukrainian, you'd be shocked how many promises were made on the Internet "to kill all Russians with the knives", "to hang up all Russians". If you'd check apparel of young Ukrainians even before 2022, many of them had t-shirts saying "Kill all Russians with the knives", or Nazi Germany slogans and insignia.
We also saw Ukrainian history books published by Western funds that promoted absolute nonsense, some confabulated stories like Russians were killing Ukrainians by millions all the history. And on back of all the books something like: "Printed by Freedom Press" or smth. like that.
For me that is more than enough to get a feeling of what is going on in Ukraine.
> Why would you expect to see much positive coverage? When you google Nazi Germany, the first results aren't innovations in TV transmission nor advancements in wildlife protection either. Should they be? Is that the main contribution of Germany to the world between 1933 and 1945?
Yeah, this is also a weapon of Western propaganda: instead of facts and thinking, just compare ~Stalin~ Putin to Hitler, and Russia to Nazi Germany. It's all the same!
Very good emotional argument. US propaganda is indeed the most advanced in the world. It's very hard to resist. But one thing gives me hope: it became so strong, that West started to believe in its wishful thinking. Like for example in February 2022 here on HN many commenters wrote something along the lines: "Russia is running out of ammo!", "Tens of thousands Russians are surrendering every day", "Russia has enough rockets only for the next three days!". Likewise, now, when Ukrainian counteroffensive...
>> Yep, this is typical of Westerners. We know you Russians are dumb and don't appreciate our "great democracy". Yeah, we had a taste of it in the 1990s. USA came and destroyed the country, economy, jobs, the future. CIA "advisors" with their "shock therapy" destroyed economy overnight, put dumb drunkard Yeltsin in power, and stole everything valuable they could get a hold of.
>> People here were dying of hunger, but West was extremely happy with the "democracy" they built here.
Please spare me of this pathetic loser mentality that blames all of your failures on someone else. The CIA did not force upon you Stalin and the murder of millions home and abroad, nor did the CIA choose you Brezhnev and stagnation in all walks of life, nor did the CIA lock up in psychiatric hospitals the people trying to change the system.
It was your own making that by the end of 1980s, the costly war in Afghanistan, industrial accidents like Chernobyl, and stagnation along with hopeless attempts to reboot the rotting economy pushed USSR on the verge of starvation. As to the west, have you forgotten grain ships that provided much needed food aid that prevented the worst?
Beyond that, nobody in the west really cares or ever cared what went on in Russia. Russian obsession with the US and the vast conspiracy theories are merely a manifestation of your inferiority complex. You may think of yourself as the Third Rome and a superpower, but the size of your economy does not support the delusion; you're just a bunch of losers who inherited nukes.
The rest of your comment is a bitter vatnik blab that doesn't deserve a reply. You may blame the CIA, Ukrainian-Jewish cryptonazis, etc all you want, but unless you get rid of this loser mentality and blame game, face your past crimes like Germans have and seek reconciliation with your victims, develop a free society that respects human rights, establish mutually beneficial relations with neighbors, and start participating in the global economy in a constructive manner like the rest, you'll never live even remotely as well as people in the west do. That's a cold hard fact that you can not bypass with rhetorics, propaganda, misdirections and lies.
Cynicism of Russian population - of which you are a perfect specimen - is perhaps the biggest obstacle to development in Russia. It leads to grassroot-level inability to take responsibility and cooperate in things like HOAs, and poisons the whole society as it leaks upstream to local governments, federal government, business culture, etc. Once you've poisoned everything and have a failed state on your hands, you blame the CIA.
If you dropped cynicism, stopped mocking """""democracy""""", took responsibility and actually tried to work with each other in the name of common good, perhaps you wouldn't be such a shithole and would see the same fast development as everyone else who have taken this path have since 1991? Perhaps there would not be a need for daily terror attacks against Ukrainian cities to salvage the image of your god-emperor in that world?
There was a really hilarious video clip going around of the queen’s funeral procession overdubbed with the audio from the reporting on Kim jong il’s funeral and it’s comedy gold..
I really value people who change their mind gradually when new information, events, etc happen.
I do not value people who change their mind frequently because they cannot think for themselves.
The last decade has really shown to me that people do not think for themselves. The devastating effect of the great depression changed Keynes mind and he adapted his theories to it, you would think the same would happen for significant events that have happened recently too.
>> The last decade has really shown to me that people do not think for themselves.
Thinking takes time and effort. It's important to allocate those resources to things we care about. Some are lazy, but I suspect a lot don't really care.
Another problem I see is people who change their mind, and then pretend that's always been their position, just completely ignoring previous publications showing their positions have changed. They point to weasel words or emphasize some trivial nuances to pretend like it's not a contradiction, or worse, just simply ignore the evidence that they've switched their position.
It might be a tad hypocritical not to wrestle with how you got it so wrong previously, and why this time is different.
There might be some frustration with the "it happened to me and now I get it!" converts who've often had others desperately try to get them to understand prior.
I agree with the sentiment but it seems to me that if someone presents a new, compelling argument against a belief you hold then shouldn’t you change your mind immediately? It seems to me that how fast one’s mind ought to change depends on the quality of the new information/ideas you are presented with.
Bollocks. I would claim that if this doesn't happen frequently, while you're a young adult, then there's a high chance that you're missing out on/ignoring perspectives outside of your family/social bubble.
It can happen, and has happened to me several times, as an adult. But, I agree that it probably shouldn't be frequent. Sometimes genuine facts are presented that should immediately change a perspective.
I think you're right, but you're missing the point : There's nothing easy or instantaneous about knowing whether or not a fact is genuine.
People can lie, can lie by omission, can try to influence your opinion by choosing carefully how they present the facts, and so on.
You can always choose to trust some people/institutions, but that's trusting/believing, not knowing.
I don't believe I'm missing the point. You seem to be assuming that people are incapable of observing/verifying/creating their own facts. I don't see that being implied in this comment chain, and it's definitely not true.
If you reread my comment you'll notice that I am not talking about the frequency of new information being encountered. I'm not sure why you bring it up, especially in such a confrontational manner.
What I am talking about is the process that starts once you encounter a new piece of information that challenges your world view: the process of evaluating if it is of quality (ie. trustworthy), or just appears so superficially. That process is not instant, and if you treat it as an instantaneous process, you're probably going to accept a lot of superficially trustworthy information (including scams, mis- and disinformation, and so on).
> I am not talking about the frequency of new information being encountered
Neither am I. I'm saying that instantaneous adjustment to ones beliefs is possible, and should be a regular occurrence, while developing ones world view.
> accept a lot of superficially trustworthy information
No. Sometimes you can see things with your own eyes, or have a person that is trustworthy say or demonstrate them to you. Sometimes occurrences can prove a belief immediately true or false. A great example is a child realizing, for the first time, that an adult can be wrong about something. Or, a young adult who voted for the first time, realizing that politicians lie to get elected. Or someone taking drugs for the first time, to realize that perception is fundamentally fragile. There are many many examples. Again, it should be a regular occurrence, when young.
> confrontational
I didn't mean to. I consider "bollocks" to show, somewhat silly, disagreement/defiance. I don't consider defiance or disagreement of an opinion to be confrontational.
People who are good at rationalizing can create a compelling argument in support of almost any position. I like to use a statistical approach where I note the prevalence of each compelling argument across a variety of sources.
Downvoters: Do you disagree that people who are good at rationalizing can create compelling arguments? Or do you disagree with using a statistical approach to vet competing arguments? Asking for a friend!
To be clear, I didn't downvote, but I guess people find it hard to believe that you sit down to do the calculations for a Bayesian update of your belief state for each piece of information you encounter.
I assume that your "statistical approach" translates to a much more haphazardly approach that's similar to how other people do it (gut feeling, based on rules of thumb and heuristics), and describing it as statistical is disingenious.
I guess that's fair. I don't really run any numbers when I update my beliefs because usually the "winning" hypothesis enjoys near-saturation of my trusted sources and often the "plausible but novel rationalization" turns out to be a unique snowflake in the landscape.
If I notice the same novel argument getting picked up from somewhat-independent multiple directions I revisit it and apply a more rigorous rethink. This is what I mean by a "statistical" approach. Perhaps some other word would have been better.
I do, however, pretty regularly sit down with some graph paper or an envelope and review/diversify my trusted sources.
There are new, compelling arguments... sometimes. But more often there are new arguments that appear compelling, but after some time thinking, you can see that there is a major hole. And there are other new arguments that appear compelling, but they are based on "facts" that are not actually true.
There's nothing wrong with taking time to really think through the presented argument, looking for holes, before you accept it. In fact, it helps you not fall for fine-sounding nonsense.
My comment wasn’t about the sometimes you refer to. It wasn’t about what appears to be compelling. My comment was on being presented with something that is compelling. It may not be instantaneous that one is able to determine that the argument/information is compelling but once this is determined one ought to change their mind. The comment I responded to talked about a gradual change in beliefs. I proposed that in the face of compelling new information or argument that one ought to change their mind immediately (after determining it is compelling).
More succinctly, there are times when one should change their mind much more rapidly than gradually.
Most arguments aren't like a mathematical proof, where you can follow it and be certain that it is correct on one reading. For most arguments, the more time goes by, the more I trust my opinion that the argument holds water. So I change my mind gradually.
I’m curious. Why are you talking about a situation that does not pertain to the premise of the post I made? I’ve stated, I think explicitly, the type of situation I’m talking about and it is not the type of situation you are talking about. I’ve made no claims about what one should do in the cases that you are talking about.
I suppose you think there are no circumstances under which a person ought to change their mind “on the spot” so to speak. If you can think of such a circumstance then what is the point you are tying to get across?
> I agree with the sentiment but it seems to me that if someone presents a new, compelling argument against a belief you hold then shouldn’t you change your mind immediately?
That's from the post you made. That's pretty general, not talking about just a "type of situation".
> I suppose you think there are no circumstances under which a person ought to change their mind “on the spot” so to speak.
I deny you the right to put words in my mouth. I did not say that, nor did I mean that.
Off topic: "I suppose you think" (and "Then you must think" and similar phrases) very often signal a distortion at best, and often a complete strawman. They have become red flags to me. Perhaps you did not mean it that way. But observing a fair number of HN comments, that's generally the way that phrase is used. To me, it has become a spectral signature of a certain kind of bad rebuttal.
The type of situation was new, compelling argument. In my first response to you I stated: More succinctly, there are times when one should change their mind much more rapidly than gradually.
You responded by repeating your original points. This gives the impression that you don’t think this is true. That is, that you don’t believe there are circumstances where someone ought to change their mind much more rapidly than gradually. I still don’t understand the purpose of your posts. They did not pertain the situation I was talking about.
Side discussion. Putting words into my mouth is not a good response. The statements we make have logical conclusions and implications. So while one may not say the words, for instance, I want to kill you. one can conclude this sentiment if other words/actions imply it.
You may attempt to deny me the right to put words into your mouth, so to speak, but as a person well trained in mathematics you won’t be successful. A collection of statements is rarely without valid, logical implications. I may not correctly make deductions on meaning/intent but the retort ought to be: That’s not a valid deduction for these reasons…
An argument may be good but applicable only to a narrow field of something, or be a valid exception to a general principle, etc. It also may be compelling but on further examination be fundamentally flawed or rely on logical errors (most of the more advanced religious apologetics are like this).
It should absolutely cause a reevaluation of your belief, but that’s not the same as necessitating it be outright changed.
It might sound like quibbling, but I feel that’s an important difference. One I feel is key to intellectual rigor & honesty.
No because it would also require compelling evidence. Certainly I would entertain a statistically probable argument to an extent. Sometimes there are compelling arguments in both directions and we have to accept not knowing.
An argument isn't evidence. Physical evidence should be the only thing that causes a quick and instant shift in views, and the situations where this evidence is clear and obvious enough to warrant this are not so common.
It depends on how compelling the evidence is, and how verifiable it is. I don't think the speed to which you change your mind matters, it's just that you are open-minded enough to change your mind. If you hold a strong belief and someone gives compelling evidence that makes you pause on your strong belief, then that in and of itself is enough.
You don't have to go hook line and sinker at the very first piece of evidence, because it's the preponderance of evidence that changes minds. The very first experiment that showed the duality of light didn't immediately change people's minds, but it broke the seal, and the accumulation of evidence did afterwards.
You should only change your mind right away if you are confident both that the argument is compelling, and that your ability to accurately evaluate the compellingness of arguments is strong.
You’re right. A good Bayesian will update their beliefs proportionally to the strength of the evidence.
Strong evidence should update your beliefs strongly.
My general take is that people are too slow to update their beliefs when strong new evidence comes in. But are generally willing to update gradually over time even with bad/weak evidence.
When faced with a new idea, I love assuming it is correct and try to see things from that perspective. It makes it very hard to believe almost anything. I also change my mind if too many people think the same thing, I will be contrarian for the sake of defending the position no one else wants to take up.
But now you are making me think I've wasted my life. I probably have. Yep. I am almost certainly worthless like you said. I agree.
> I love assuming it is correct and try to see things from that perspective
This isn't necessarily bad. Being able to understand the other side of some controversial topic, and even argue against your own position, is a sign of mental and emotional maturity.
Switching your position to whatever argument you heard most recently is not.
I learned once (on npr when i used to listen to it) that when you hear some new information, you should immediately think the opposite. This gives you the ability to not subconsciously weight the idea you heard higher than you should. After all, for every point in life a reasonable counter point exists.
I've done this for many years and I do believe the practice has helped me not blindly believe things.
It wasn't the Great Depression that formed Keynes thinking; he was 45 when the GD started. Indeed the article the letter to the QI cites is from 1924, well predating the GD. It wasn't Bloomsbury either. Really, Keynes was just naturally open minded.
Since we love categorizing, here is a quick taxonomy for what you are describing:
Dogmatists: unthinking, inflexible
Weathervanes: unthinking, flexible
Skeptics: thinking, inflexible
Pragmatists: thinking, flexible
The names are adhoc and should be taken with a grain of salt. The thinkingness axis we can attach a notion of good/bad to, since it is generally better to think things through than not.
Flexibility, not so much, but we can contrast the skeptic’s “I need more information before I can make a judgment” to the pragmatist’s “how can I use this right now?” and apply this to our workplaces. Certainly some of us are more skeptical than pragmatic, and vice versa.
I think this two-axis system misses the difference between "weathervanes" and "partisans", who sit in the same place on the two-axis system but function very differently in practice.
I can understand "partisan" as someone whose primary adherence is loyalty to a party and will comply with the latest party talking points. I don't know what a "weathervane" is.
It's a paradox because dogmatism typically implies a fixed perspective, whereas a refusal to be dogmatic typically suggests an openness to various perspectives.
It's worth noting that this form of dogmatism (e.g. ironic or paradoxical dogmatism) can lead to intellectual arrogance or self-righteousness. If taken to an extreme, an individual can become close-minded about their own beliefs regarding open-mindedness. I see this a lot in today's society, especially amongst many young people who may not have accumulated enough life experience to understand why others might have come to think differently than themselves.
When I think, it leads to thought that is not the first, which immediately leads back to the first thought. What prevents the initial thought? What prevents it from becoming what it was not, before? Why did the thought become what it was not? How much thinking do I do for the next thought to lead back to the first? Which of those thoughts are the first thought and which of them are not?
Of the one, or that fiery death that never ends
To the heart of its description
Go through great changing of conciseness
It becomes what becomes the lesser, not to much more and not of us.
And without whining (or any sad crap)
One crappy song, you know is very much like this place
Goes the same way and that is:
“Thanks to you, and me, it’s super awesome!
I’m leaving all the bad times behind.“
There is a subtle ambiguity here. What does it mean to "not be dogmatic"?
Full contrarianism would be to reject the dogmatic beliefs. "If authority X claims it is true, it must be wrong." You would seek out beliefs that are in opposition to the dogma.
But not being dogmatic might just be aiming for immunity to dogma? "Whatever authority X claims is irrelevant." You might try to evaluate ideas on your own and form beliefs that are uncorrelated with the dogma.
In addition, I'd add that "not being dogmatic" includes the potential of adopting the dogmatic belief. That's because the idea itself was evaluated for more than just the fact that it was dogmatic; though, the associated dogma can still be considered a variable in the evaluation.
Agreed, I meant that as part of uncorrelation. You don't align with or against the dogma, so your beliefs might overlap in some placed and not others.
I forgot to mention a third form of "not being dogmatic" which is closer to my own idiomatic understanding of the phrase. Rather than focusing on your consumption or reaction to prevailing dogma, it is also a useful not to try to be a source of dogma. Don't consider your own beliefs to be "facts" and don't try to become an authority who promotes or evangelizes a new prevailing dogma...
This is sort of the twist at the end of Unstable Orbits in the Space of Lies [1]. Turns out that avoiding belief systems is an unusual variety of belief system.
Skepticals are fairly flexible given that you can convince them with accurate, fact based information. IMO this is probably the best default for all of them. Pragmatists by your definition sound too trusting.
I'm referring thinking in this context as "thinking for yourself" and the ability to distinguish lies from truths and being able to accept some as undetermined.
And flexibility as having gone through the "thinking" phase and arriving at a conclusion and opinion, the ability to defend, bend or uproot the previous conclusion or opinion as supported by newer evidence and experience.
Then there's people who pretend to be one but are another, some who don't know who they are, some who are splendid pragmatists in some areas and astute dogmatists in others.
And then you come across some weathernerves who've done much better for themselves simply by following , some dogmatists who've done well for themselves by leading the skeptics. While the pragmatists, sit around gathering and categorizing others and themselves, and some others commenting on such comments, thinking they've finally; finally figured it out.
I am all of these at once. I try to be pragmatic especially at work because that helps with working with others. But I'm really a skeptic as a default position. However, a lot of things in life aren't as important at one time or another and I'll unthinkingly be dogmatic or a weathervane.
Sometimes it's good to take a weathervane approach if you don't know much about an area and get blown around a bit before you're able to form an opinion. And yes that might make you look silly, but that's ok.
I understand your strong reaction to events in some countries in recent years, but the conclusion is both incomplete and unfair.
People can and do think... This is demonstrable, look at the good things around us in the world.
However, people can be brought very low intellectually and civically by their environment. They are vulnerable to a society that does not guarantee education and accurate information (in traditional or in modern media).
People are willing to conform, especially in exchange for food and opportunity for shelter. People are consummately manipulated by the control of the information around them.
I think you're missing tribalism, which is a fundamental part of human nature [1]. A once (and almost certainly still is) useful tool that makes the mind irrational and blind. There's definitely some stupidity hard coded into all of us.
There is a combination of data processing and filtering happening. It's less about whether to change one's view, and more about whether or not to accept an input. If we accept a new input, our view of things must change, or else we will become insane, mentally ill or internally inconsistent.
I think we're talking about data filtration here, not data processing. Yes?
There is a combination of data processing and filtering happening. It's less about whether to change one's view, and more about whether or not to accept an input. If we accept a new input, our view of things must change, or else we will become insane, mentally ill or internally inconsistent.
I think we're talking about data filtration here, not data processing. Does that make sense?
To expand on that, someone who gradually changes their view is a little skeptical, but can be convinced given enough accumulated data points to accept a new paradigm. They effectively reject new information up to a point. That's what slowly changing your mind means.
> If we accept a new input, our view of things must change, or else we will become insane, mentally ill or internally inconsistent.
This is beautiful.
I subscribe to the belief that "intelligence" is any system that can meaningfully organize information on its own, and, perhaps, is more of an emergent behavior of organized information, rather than used to organize information. Although, I'm not sure those can be separated in a meaningful way.
This is a smart people trap: that "thinking" is what makes some people right and other people wrong.
The practical reality is that nobody today can develop a sufficient depth of knowledge in more than a couple of niche subjects at best to be "right" about them at anything other than the most superficial of levels.
Somebody might read a book, or several books, or several books and some blogs about a subject, or even take one or several courses in it, but that doesn't mean they know it. They know some things about it, and some of the things they think they know about it will be wrong.
Maybe part of the disagreement here that isn't being addressed is the difference between ideas (or facts) and principles. My principles have changed very little over the years, and so the direction of my ideas haven't either. But my ideas change frequently because there are only a few subjects about which I know anything and I am a moron in the rest.
edit: and even in those couple of subjects where I might claim some expertise, I'm wrong frustratingly often.
there's a vast difference between only knowing a bit and applying a little thought and only knowing a bit and not applying any thought.
Without thought/consideration, you can hold an obviously incorrect position for quite some time before someone else bothers to correct you, or until you discover the other information.
So, just because you _might_ be wrong, is not an excuse for not applying careful thought to all topics. This is especially true for 'strong opinions loosely held' people who seem to think that loosely holding an opinion is a replacement for putting even a modicum of thought into any given topic. It's not. You hold obviously wrong opinions and rely on people to correct you.
Well, sure. I hope the takeaway wasn't "don't bother thinking". Rather, it should have been: remember that no matter how much you think about something, you could still be wrong, so forgive others their wrongness too.
Only if they actually tried to think. Otherwise they don't get automatic passes for believing random things just because I am not 100% guaranteed to end up believing a correct thing.
I think this is a relatively new situation, with the information age. Previously a lot of bad decisions were made from pure ignorance and "thinking" aka "people with good recall" made a lot of people right and others wrong.
A humbling exercise for anyone is, for any given belief, writing down specifically what inputs and logic lead to that belief, and specifically what inputs and logic would lead to changing that belief.
Almost everyone would find that almost all of their beliefs are based on very flimsy input/logic, and the bar for changing that belief is unfairly and wildly asymmetric.
I think most people base most beliefs on being told that they're true. Full stop. It really comes down to who you are listening to and why; most critical to this is the birth lottery.
Learning to do this formally in a college philosophy/logic class broke my brain in the best way and drastically altered the kind of person I became from that point on. For context: I came from a religious family which had trained me not to trust my science teachers, but they hadn’t warned me against philosophers.
What is truly amazing about the production of John Wick is that while yes the physics of the movies are… not realistic, they take an obscene amount of care about the gun safety. Which given the themes of the movie is pretty funny, but for the members of the production, I’m glad it’s not a joke.
> “I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun." - Keanu Reeves.
Nice one. I say something more aggressive like: "excuse me, I go back down to earth talking with doctors saving patients' lives and engineers creating the planes in which you fly!".
Maybe he's talking about maturity, but maybe it could also have something to do with the world of acting versus other careers like medicine or science or engineering, or even possibly have something to do with being at that stage of life where you have hundreds of millions of dollars.
I'll put up with convincing my family and friends. But if there is arbitrary person X, and if you were to sample X's views and they had no correlation with the truth if "time studying subject" is removed, then that person is a low information source.
For most people, I get to sample their view on something occasionally. I have no idea how far they are in the process of being wrong. Someone who is almost always wrong until they are convinced is a low coefficient source of information.
It's not enough to be convinced. You have to be right a lot. That's just how it is. This has served me well so far.
Same. I wait for academics and journalists to tell me what to think, then I go around wearing my "I Heckin' Love Science!" T-shirt, yell "Trust the science" from my car at random pedestrians, and try to cancel any heretics who don't loudly agree.
This is the second article (although the first was just a Tweet..) today about changing your mind. Here on the internet, I'm not surprised see how much hatred there is of people who change their minds/opinions. It's easy to see that folks appreciate consistency over correctness. This is obvious, primarily because folks who are consistent are easier to predict, in action and motivation, and therefore easier to plan for.
This is a great personality for leaders/CEOs/politicians because the time-scale of large multi-person coordination requires that change is limited in scope and that only justifiable/authorized change is allowed. Allocation of power and authority being the purpose of social organization.
If you are not a leader, than you need to stop holding onto this terrible world view. The only path to truthy-knowledge, that we know of, is empirical observation and testing of hypothesis; The Scientific Method. Believe it or not, leading people is a skill older than science and has it's foundations in manipulation and control. And, in this system, "truth" does not matter at all. Or, even worse, "alternative truth" is acceptable as long as it suits your power-structure and social goals.
I am not a king/CEO/Pharaoh/President and, as such, hold consistency in about as high regard as used toilet-paper. I am, alternatively, an engineer and I have an ethical obligation to be correct. I have this duty, regardless of what people and their "common sense" or opinions may be. In other-words: I reserve the right to change my mind, at any time, when presented with new information.
It absolutely must be this way. It may infuriate folks around me and make me look like a fool; yet, what is ethics if it's not doing the right thing in the face of adversity?
I'm also going to leave this [here](https://ethics.acm.org/code-of-ethics/software-engineering-c...) as a starting point for any young or maturing software engineers who need a foundation or jumping-off point to expand their understanding about ethics.
With regards to The Scientific Method (and other ideas mentioned), I found some of David Deutsch's work thought-provoking. Namely, the idea that deductive reasoning is more effective than inductive when seeking new hypotheses. The Beginning of Infinity is a decent starting place [0]. Also related to some of Nassim Taleb's work.
Ironic that the article uses Keynes as an example for an admirable virtue that Keynes didn't really employ himself. Keynes didn't actually change his mind, he simply changed his arguments to justify a consistent belief that deficit spending was the answer to virtually all economic woes.
I really don't think "deficit spending was the answer to virtually all economic woes" is a remotely correct characterization of Keynes' theories or contributions. Frankly that's just a libertarian strawman, and deploying it in a thread notionally about rational discourse seems sort of unserious.
Forgive me for not writing a full dissertation dissecting all the terrible ideas that Keynes had. I think my characterization is a pretty accurate shorthand to summarize his primary contribution to economic theory, and the theory that he is best known for championing (in America at least).
Either way, it's irrelevant what Keynes actual theory was; the point of my argument is that he continued to offer proposal after proposal and excuse after excuse for why his theory didn't actually work in practice (to end the Great Depression) instead of changing his mind and accepting that he was just wrong.
It's actually just a stopgap and since it generates inflation much sooner than monetary policy you also have to do less of it to achieve the same outcome.
If you understand his liquidity preference theory and his Bancor proposal, then you would understand that the irrationality of deficit spending mirrors the irrationality of the system.
Why bother with deficit spending if the system worked even if you leave it alone? Oh right the problem is that the system won't work if you leave it alone. Thus any attempt to bring it back to rationality will look as irrational as the system that is being fixed. The system leaves an irrational gap that needs to be closed with a filler that takes on the shape of the irrationality.
Anyone who thinks that Keynes wasn't aware of the temporary nature of deficit spending doesn't know Keynes and instead fell for some caricature of him.
The answer to neutralising liquidity preference is to charge symmetric fees to both positive and negative money balances that are immediately available. The Bancor plan was an implementation of that concept for trade/current account balances between nations.
If your country generates too many export surpluses, then it has an incentive to reduce the surplus. If your country has an port surplus it also has an incentive to reduce the surplus. Thus there is an automatic stabilising mechanism that requires no intervention whatsoever. Countries can voluntarily join the Bancor system and although you might object that a perfect implementation requires strong capital controls, as long as there are political levers to encourage or discourage exports/imports, no capital controls are necessary.
Balanced trade between nations means that the inequality between nations would quickly disappear because poorer countries are no longer building up foreign debt and richer countries are no longer piling up favours that they can use as geopolitical poker chips to go against the people's wishes in the poorer country.
Alas there is no Bancor system. So deficit spending it is. Politicians love deficit spending so at least you can accomplish a tiny massively distorted fragment of the original plan instead of nothing at all.
Applying symmetrical liquidity fees to domestic balances would result in intervention free full employment at which point the vast majority of neoclassical predictions would become true. If unemployment is nonexistent then there will be fewer unemployment benefits to pay out, which in turn means taxes can be cut, which in turn means that the purchasing power of workers goes up, which in turn means a lot of public spending becomes unnecessary. The one thing it wouldn't fix is that the rent will still be too damn high but since people have jobs they can afford to pay rent.
> Thus any attempt to bring it back to rationality will look as irrational as the system that is being fixed.
The business cycle isn't irrational. It's a rational outgrowth of the basic fact that there is a lag between investment and the realized gains (or losses) from that investment. The only thing needed to deal with this problem is a reliable and relatively quick system for liquidating debt.
> Anyone who thinks that Keynes wasn't aware of the temporary nature of deficit spending
I've heard this argument before and it still doesn't save him. If a theory includes a provision that is never actually recommended in practice, it's not really part of the theory.
Even if conceded this point (that deficit spending was temporary and would be replaced by austerity at-some-unnamed-point-in-the-future-when-everything-was-amazing), his theory on deficit spending is still wrong, because it assumes that the malinvestment (rational or irrational) that lead to the business cycle will somehow be improved by what will likely be *even more malinvestment* in the form of deficit spending.
I ask where you get your "facts" from. Humility is important for sure (or perhaps taking pride in becoming right rather than being right), but it is pointless if you have no solid footing for epistomology. A "humble" academic who is endlessly skeptical of all personal observations, but turns a blind eye to the distorted incentives and lackluster filtering within the halls of the academy (concerning both publication at the surface level and the demarcation problem at a more fundamental one), is just a different form of arrogant.
It doesn't matter whats "right" or "correct". What matters is what people _believe_. And humans seem to love confident strong-men who clear away their doubts. So while I understand that value of reason, there's a tragic flaw in this high-mindedness- no one wants to follow a man without a clear voice. No one wants to listen to the manager , or CEO, or President, who "waffles".
They do, however, want to listen to the leader who can discern good into from bad, and make decisions or alter course as needed as new good info comes to light. I think it's important to zoom out a bit when considering what we humans seek in a leader. Confidence, yes, but also the ability to change one's mind is a marker of intelligence as opposed to the cognitive impairment that is concrete thinking.
I do not mean to be rude but were you not witness to the terrible spectacle of DJT as POTUS? Stupid-confidence led that fool to the highest office in the world. It seems to me the average voter prefers to maintain "the feels" over even their very survival?
Sure, everyone like to follow strength. I don't want someone to lead me just with confident bullshit though, which has been hyperoptimized for in recent years in politics.
When before confidence came as the result of skill and experience, now it's all "fake it till you make it".
The fact that we can't distinguigh between the two is a problem with our culture, which we actually can improve upon by explicitly condemning in public baseless confidence.
This in my mind can be a dangerous path, if I am not disciplined to validate the new information.
In all this the presumption is the "facts change", "information change", and "persuasion" is done from a basis of objective truth.
In Keyes (btw Sun Tzu 孫子 said something similar a wee bit earlier) notes this presumption is present, such that the information added to financial decision is objectively true.
But, in my experience in life (and even in investing) there are objective truths and then derivatives of objective & subjective truths. These second type of truths are often presented still as objective truths. To what percentage of the objective & subjective intermingle and when I decide the "truth" is now too subjective is... subjective.
Its that puzzled look in my inner monologue that triggers the question "is this truth objective enough to be considered to influence my current stance?"
In general I think as we gain more life experiences, the less subjective truths we tolerate in such derivative truths. Externally, this may manifest itself as jaded, or stubborn.
And, finally, even when we think something is objective -> 2+2=5
Bayesian inference only works for "the cat is on the mat" examples. In reality, hypothesis and theory discovery and model selection are highly complex and neither a theory/hypothesis/model's accuracy nor the subjective probability that it's true are the decisive criterion for choosing the best one.
I repeat this to myself. I look for reasons to be wrong. Everything I think I know how to do well, I assume someone has a better way of doing it, and I want to know that way.
I don’t even stop short when it comes to religion or politics. You believe in God, convince me, that sounds great. Your political views are right? Okay, show me the evidence, I’ll listen and explore the idea.
But I do stand by what I am pretty certain is a fact if there would be consequences otherwise. That being said, I have very little confidence that I know any actual “facts”.
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[ 2.4 ms ] story [ 237 ms ] thread"But I thought you'd proven that black holes do exist?" inquires the guest.
"That was my Ph.D. thesis," says Hawking.
Edit: it’s fixed by requesting the desktop website.
But anyway, on my laptop, the article was just clean text and a byline with some well-formatted images.
Failing to install ublock on your parents computer is a form of abuse! :-)
There are false facts, or lies. True facts and opinions
A "lie" implies intent to deceive or mislead, but not all false facts are shared with such intent. You may be interested in Harry Frankfurt's 1986 essay On Bullshit [0] and the 2005 book of the same name, which has been discussed on HN before [1].
[0] On Bullshit: http://www2.csudh.edu/ccauthen/576f12/frankfurt__harry_-_on_...
[1] https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691122946/on...
[2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33605481
We also haven't had a official recession in the U.S. over that time period, I believe, so the topic of recession seems like a red herring.
Right, so there's your 8% per year upside risk. So during US recessions, do international stocks provide a differential return against US stocks that is high enough to support that 8% yearly upside risk?
(And, even if they do, now it's a matter of timing the market...)
> I don't see how that supports the idea that economies are very interconnected and investing outside the country can't produce a large return differential.
I didn't say it wouldn't provide any differential. I implied that that differential will either always be negative or positive but small enough that it's not worth moving.
Or, in other words, US or European recessions would equally tank foreign investments dependent on US or European consumers. Of course these markets would be somewhat resistant based on the strength of their own local economies, but are those economies strong enough to provide solid returns through a US or European recession? And if they are, is the differential high enough to risk the 8% yearly upside during non-recessions?
Look at it this way:
Imagine you have $200 dollars to invest. You can invest in country A or Country B. You know in a year one country will be up 10% and one will be up 1%. You don't know which country will be up the 10% and which will be up the 1%.
In a year, you need $205 dollars. Unless you like to live dangerously the rational thing to do is invest equally in both countries where you'll get a 6 dollar return. If you pick a single country you'll have a 50% chance of not having enough money.
Of course real world investing is more complicated, but my example demonstrates it's about probabilities of success at meeting your goals. Country A and country B have equal expected returns but investing in both decreases the probability of running out of money when you need it. Or it should, if we've modeled the expected returns of each country correctly.
Not if the change was to completely disregard anything that that user posts.
Or if someone would say that "Celebrity X visited a factory of company Y in China". Even if you find a Chinese search engine and use online translator, you can easily waste days. E.g. how do you find out how Western names are spelled in Chinese text? There's no single answer, especially if a person is not worldwide popular.
From my personal experience: I live in Russia. When I read what is published in Western media about life in Russia, I'm flabbergasted every time at the blatant lies and exaggerations. Though I guess it's roughly similar to what I read in our media about Western countries. But if I'd try to dispel some myths on social networks or in comments, I'll be banned or at best called "Kremlin troll", so I no longer even try to do it.
So, for example I followed a Ukrainian youtuber who said he was leaving because of the invasion, that added considerably to my confidence. Also, meeting refugees arrive in the UK displaced from the Russian invasion made for near 100% confidence that it was actually happening (a video of a couple of tanks on a highway just looks like propaganda however, but the tanks were probably there, something happened [it wasn't impressive enough to be AI generated!]).
As for comparatives: if BBC, Al Jazeera, Russia Today all agree on details (in the context of the Russian war) then I'm pretty confident. Though the Wagner situation appears to be a subterfuge, as all these sources are reporting it I'm confident that vehicles were driven towards Moscow in at least an attempt to display to the World that something was happening.
What is an example of a large lie that you see in Western media today, that you confirm to be untrue from direct personal experience?
What is a trusted source? How can I find one? I think this is close to impossible. Of course, everyone reads what one consider "trusted" source, but I have doubt any of them is.
> So, for example I followed a Ukrainian youtuber who said he was leaving because of the invasion, that added considerably to my confidence. Also, meeting refugees arrive in the UK displaced from the Russian invasion made for near 100% confidence that it was actually happening (a video of a couple of tanks on a highway just looks like propaganda however, but the tanks were probably there, something happened [it wasn't impressive enough to be AI generated!]).
But does this prove anything at all? E.g. half of my family lives in Ukraine. You wouldn't believe and it's never mentioned in Western media, but large percent of Ukraine population is Russian. Actually, it's almost impossible to distinguish who's Russian and who's Ukrainian. What is the difference? My family is originally from Ukraine, but I consider myself Russian.
So, my relatives from Ukraine were always telling me completely different stories from official Western stories. E.g. about neo-nazi movement in Ukraine which became very active since 1991 according to my relatives.
> What is an example of a large lie that you see in Western media today, that you confirm to be untrue from direct personal experience?
I do not collect such stories (what would be the point?), but meanwhile I'm looking for some examples, I'll tell you that for several years I've browsed Western media and specifically searched for news from Russia on CNN, Washington Post, Bloomberg, and other prominent Western media websites.
One thing that is impossible to ignore is that all news from Russia are strictly negative. Even if they're true, this is clearly one sided presentation of situation to demonstrate to Western readers that "Everything is bad in Russia". I couldn't read anything positive about Russia in English for many years. It's always the same bingo bullshit composed out of "dictatorship", "bad Putin", "bad Russians", "Russian hackers", yadda, yadda.
I've just did a search `russia site:https://www.washingtonpost.com/`. While I cannot pinpoint an outright lie, because there're tons of results and I don't have much time now, you can easily see that there's a common theme in all the news articles: "Russia is bad", "Situation in Russia is awful", "Some unnamed source confirms that Putin is bad/afraid/eats babies for breakfast". Whatever year you put in the search: 2023, 2022, 2020, 2018, etc.
You wouldn't believe and it's never mentioned in Western media, but large percent of Ukraine population is Russian.
Actually it's mentioned all the time. As is the neo-Nazi stuff. That said, there are all kind of people in Western countries, and many (especially in the U.S.) are quite ignorant and couldn't even find Ukraine on the map. And certainly don't read anything that doesn't pop up whatever news feed they have on their phone.
So even though these details about Ukraine/Russian a certainly mentioned in the media often enough, not surprisingly they just won't stick with many people.
To try to get to the main content of what you're saying - it seems to come down to this (which I am editing down slightly, but only to keep it short):
It is impossible or next to impossible to investigate most of the facts... I think this is close to impossible [to find trusted sources].
I agree that it can easily seem so from the outside, if one reads these sources only occasionally. But over time ... a long time, especially when one grows up hearing and reading these news outlets all the time ... a certain pattern emerges.
Specifically some sources are, at least one it comes to the basic factual narrative -- much more reliable than others. That is, basically true to fact, basically professional. They do screw up sometimes, and are sometimes fooled.
It isn't easy to tell just be reading only a few sources, or reading them occasionally. But over time -- one sees that their reporting (again, of basic facts) largely overlaps with the others are saying. Also, some of them have highly professional journalists who have lived in these countries (including yours), and know what they're talking about.
And also, what they report (again as to facts) aligns closely with what one can gather from friends or relatives. And of course from visiting these countries directly, and talking to people there.
Basically one can put WSJ, NYT, WaPo, Bloomberg and a few others in this box. CNN and BBC to some extent also (though they are frankly somewhat "dumber" than the first 4 and have much less original reporting). I could mention other sources (in other languages even) because of course not everything revolves around U.S. media sources, but I'm trying to keep things simple here.
That said -- they do have strong biases as to opinion. But in the above group -- while sometimes irritating (and in my view basically wrong) -- still not obnoxiously or fanatically so. Some people call them "propaganda" outlets, but I disagree (and find those do say that to usually have extreme political views themselves, on one end of the spectrum or the other).
Bottom line -- yes one can learn to "navigate" the news, find (reasonably) trusted sources, enough to "tell up from down", that is, which ones are basicaly reliable, and which ones not.
Finally - to address one more thing you were saying - about bias and views about what's going on in Russia. I think what you're saying is partially valid, partially not. (Again, as applies to what Western media say about Russia -- not what is going on there yourself, which of course you know infinitely better than I).
For example, here are things Western media does say about Russia, often enough: "dictatorship", "bad/afraid Putin, "Russian hackers", "situation in Russia is bad".
What they don't say (and where I think you may be misreading here) are things like "Russia is bad", "bad Russians" (as a people), or "Putin eats babies for breakfast".
I hope you recognize the distinction between these two categories. Statements in the first category are ei...
Sounds like you have become a perfect specimen of Putinist Russia: trusting no-one, doubting everything, doing nothing.
>> So, my relatives from Ukraine were always telling me completely different stories from official Western stories. E.g. about neo-nazi movement in Ukraine which became very active since 1991 according to my relatives.
Have you tried quantifying it? For example, when someone from that part of political spectrum participated in elections, how well did they do? Did the "very active movement" ever reach even 1% of support?
>> While I cannot pinpoint an outright lie, because there're tons of results and I don't have much time now, you can easily see that there's a common theme in all the news articles: "Russia is bad", "Situation in Russia is awful", "Some unnamed source confirms that Putin is bad/afraid/eats babies for breakfast".
Why would you expect to see much positive coverage? When you google Nazi Germany, the first results aren't innovations in TV transmission nor advancements in wildlife protection either. Should they be? Is that the main contribution of Germany to the world between 1933 and 1945?
Yep, this is typical of Westerners. We know you Russians are dumb and don't appreciate our "great democracy". Yeah, we had a taste of it in the 1990s. USA came and destroyed the country, economy, jobs, the future. CIA "advisors" with their "shock therapy" destroyed economy overnight, put dumb drunkard Yeltsin in power, and stole everything valuable they could get a hold of.
People here were dying of hunger, but West was extremely happy with the "democracy" they built here.
> trusting no-one, doubting everything, doing nothing.
I trust myself and trust my country. I have no doubts we'll win. I'm doing my job, care about my family, and do many other things. I guess by "doing nothing" you mean that I'm not staging mutiny against the government in the interest of United States. Why would I? I've already lived through what US is calling "help to other countries". Also I've seen what US had done to Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and many other countries.
Only a dumb person would believe that US is interested in helping any other nation. US is destroying the economy even of its closest allies like Germany, which is especially evident now.
We call this kind of US politics: "you die today, but I die tomorrow", meaning that it would destroy anyone and anything to be able to consume more. Not only I do not support anything coming from the West because of that, but try to dissuade everyone around me if people have doubts.
> Have you tried quantifying it? For example, when someone from that part of political spectrum participated in elections, how well did they do?
How would I quantify it? From what trusted sources? Do you think there was an official neo-Nazi party in Ukraine?
> Did the "very active movement" ever reach even 1% of support?
I don't know how to quantify it, but I know that long before 2014 and 2022, Nazies were drawing crosses on doors of "Russians" in apartment buildings and promising they'll come next night and assassinate "every Russian swine living there". Also, if you'd be able to read and speak Russian and Ukrainian, you'd be shocked how many promises were made on the Internet "to kill all Russians with the knives", "to hang up all Russians". If you'd check apparel of young Ukrainians even before 2022, many of them had t-shirts saying "Kill all Russians with the knives", or Nazi Germany slogans and insignia.
We also saw Ukrainian history books published by Western funds that promoted absolute nonsense, some confabulated stories like Russians were killing Ukrainians by millions all the history. And on back of all the books something like: "Printed by Freedom Press" or smth. like that.
For me that is more than enough to get a feeling of what is going on in Ukraine.
> Why would you expect to see much positive coverage? When you google Nazi Germany, the first results aren't innovations in TV transmission nor advancements in wildlife protection either. Should they be? Is that the main contribution of Germany to the world between 1933 and 1945?
Yeah, this is also a weapon of Western propaganda: instead of facts and thinking, just compare ~Stalin~ Putin to Hitler, and Russia to Nazi Germany. It's all the same!
Very good emotional argument. US propaganda is indeed the most advanced in the world. It's very hard to resist. But one thing gives me hope: it became so strong, that West started to believe in its wishful thinking. Like for example in February 2022 here on HN many commenters wrote something along the lines: "Russia is running out of ammo!", "Tens of thousands Russians are surrendering every day", "Russia has enough rockets only for the next three days!". Likewise, now, when Ukrainian counteroffensive...
>> People here were dying of hunger, but West was extremely happy with the "democracy" they built here.
Please spare me of this pathetic loser mentality that blames all of your failures on someone else. The CIA did not force upon you Stalin and the murder of millions home and abroad, nor did the CIA choose you Brezhnev and stagnation in all walks of life, nor did the CIA lock up in psychiatric hospitals the people trying to change the system.
It was your own making that by the end of 1980s, the costly war in Afghanistan, industrial accidents like Chernobyl, and stagnation along with hopeless attempts to reboot the rotting economy pushed USSR on the verge of starvation. As to the west, have you forgotten grain ships that provided much needed food aid that prevented the worst?
Beyond that, nobody in the west really cares or ever cared what went on in Russia. Russian obsession with the US and the vast conspiracy theories are merely a manifestation of your inferiority complex. You may think of yourself as the Third Rome and a superpower, but the size of your economy does not support the delusion; you're just a bunch of losers who inherited nukes.
The rest of your comment is a bitter vatnik blab that doesn't deserve a reply. You may blame the CIA, Ukrainian-Jewish cryptonazis, etc all you want, but unless you get rid of this loser mentality and blame game, face your past crimes like Germans have and seek reconciliation with your victims, develop a free society that respects human rights, establish mutually beneficial relations with neighbors, and start participating in the global economy in a constructive manner like the rest, you'll never live even remotely as well as people in the west do. That's a cold hard fact that you can not bypass with rhetorics, propaganda, misdirections and lies.
Cynicism of Russian population - of which you are a perfect specimen - is perhaps the biggest obstacle to development in Russia. It leads to grassroot-level inability to take responsibility and cooperate in things like HOAs, and poisons the whole society as it leaks upstream to local governments, federal government, business culture, etc. Once you've poisoned everything and have a failed state on your hands, you blame the CIA.
If you dropped cynicism, stopped mocking """""democracy""""", took responsibility and actually tried to work with each other in the name of common good, perhaps you wouldn't be such a shithole and would see the same fast development as everyone else who have taken this path have since 1991? Perhaps there would not be a need for daily terror attacks against Ukrainian cities to salvage the image of your god-emperor in that world?
Along with bailing out your country's ass in its hour of greatest need.
https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ленд-лиз
Just a couple of years after it entered into an alliance with the Wehrmacht, and did you-know-what in the Baltics and the Katyń forest and all.
Notice how the sibling/parent commenter avoids answering the question.
https://youtu.be/aNBqjKFS1_c
I do not value people who change their mind frequently because they cannot think for themselves.
The last decade has really shown to me that people do not think for themselves. The devastating effect of the great depression changed Keynes mind and he adapted his theories to it, you would think the same would happen for significant events that have happened recently too.
Thinking takes time and effort. It's important to allocate those resources to things we care about. Some are lazy, but I suspect a lot don't really care.
- Change your mind when new information is given, that is thinking for yourself.
- Don't change it too much, that is not thinking for yourself.
- Not changing your mind is also not thinking for yourself.
Like I say, I agree with you but the nuance here is difficult to explain.
It might be a tad hypocritical not to wrestle with how you got it so wrong previously, and why this time is different.
There might be some frustration with the "it happened to me and now I get it!" converts who've often had others desperately try to get them to understand prior.
When I'd tail him around work, he'd switch opinions to match the last person he was arguing with.
The old opinion was already debunked, so theres no need to consider it
It can happen, and has happened to me several times, as an adult. But, I agree that it probably shouldn't be frequent. Sometimes genuine facts are presented that should immediately change a perspective.
What I am talking about is the process that starts once you encounter a new piece of information that challenges your world view: the process of evaluating if it is of quality (ie. trustworthy), or just appears so superficially. That process is not instant, and if you treat it as an instantaneous process, you're probably going to accept a lot of superficially trustworthy information (including scams, mis- and disinformation, and so on).
Neither am I. I'm saying that instantaneous adjustment to ones beliefs is possible, and should be a regular occurrence, while developing ones world view.
> accept a lot of superficially trustworthy information
No. Sometimes you can see things with your own eyes, or have a person that is trustworthy say or demonstrate them to you. Sometimes occurrences can prove a belief immediately true or false. A great example is a child realizing, for the first time, that an adult can be wrong about something. Or, a young adult who voted for the first time, realizing that politicians lie to get elected. Or someone taking drugs for the first time, to realize that perception is fundamentally fragile. There are many many examples. Again, it should be a regular occurrence, when young.
> confrontational
I didn't mean to. I consider "bollocks" to show, somewhat silly, disagreement/defiance. I don't consider defiance or disagreement of an opinion to be confrontational.
I assume that your "statistical approach" translates to a much more haphazardly approach that's similar to how other people do it (gut feeling, based on rules of thumb and heuristics), and describing it as statistical is disingenious.
If I notice the same novel argument getting picked up from somewhat-independent multiple directions I revisit it and apply a more rigorous rethink. This is what I mean by a "statistical" approach. Perhaps some other word would have been better.
I do, however, pretty regularly sit down with some graph paper or an envelope and review/diversify my trusted sources.
There's nothing wrong with taking time to really think through the presented argument, looking for holes, before you accept it. In fact, it helps you not fall for fine-sounding nonsense.
More succinctly, there are times when one should change their mind much more rapidly than gradually.
I suppose you think there are no circumstances under which a person ought to change their mind “on the spot” so to speak. If you can think of such a circumstance then what is the point you are tying to get across?
That's from the post you made. That's pretty general, not talking about just a "type of situation".
> I suppose you think there are no circumstances under which a person ought to change their mind “on the spot” so to speak.
I deny you the right to put words in my mouth. I did not say that, nor did I mean that.
Off topic: "I suppose you think" (and "Then you must think" and similar phrases) very often signal a distortion at best, and often a complete strawman. They have become red flags to me. Perhaps you did not mean it that way. But observing a fair number of HN comments, that's generally the way that phrase is used. To me, it has become a spectral signature of a certain kind of bad rebuttal.
You responded by repeating your original points. This gives the impression that you don’t think this is true. That is, that you don’t believe there are circumstances where someone ought to change their mind much more rapidly than gradually. I still don’t understand the purpose of your posts. They did not pertain the situation I was talking about.
Side discussion. Putting words into my mouth is not a good response. The statements we make have logical conclusions and implications. So while one may not say the words, for instance, I want to kill you. one can conclude this sentiment if other words/actions imply it.
You may attempt to deny me the right to put words into your mouth, so to speak, but as a person well trained in mathematics you won’t be successful. A collection of statements is rarely without valid, logical implications. I may not correctly make deductions on meaning/intent but the retort ought to be: That’s not a valid deduction for these reasons…
Change? No. Question? Yes. Question, probe, & investigate.
An argument may be good but applicable only to a narrow field of something, or be a valid exception to a general principle, etc. It also may be compelling but on further examination be fundamentally flawed or rely on logical errors (most of the more advanced religious apologetics are like this).
It should absolutely cause a reevaluation of your belief, but that’s not the same as necessitating it be outright changed.
It might sound like quibbling, but I feel that’s an important difference. One I feel is key to intellectual rigor & honesty.
You don't have to go hook line and sinker at the very first piece of evidence, because it's the preponderance of evidence that changes minds. The very first experiment that showed the duality of light didn't immediately change people's minds, but it broke the seal, and the accumulation of evidence did afterwards.
Strong evidence should update your beliefs strongly.
My general take is that people are too slow to update their beliefs when strong new evidence comes in. But are generally willing to update gradually over time even with bad/weak evidence.
When faced with a new idea, I love assuming it is correct and try to see things from that perspective. It makes it very hard to believe almost anything. I also change my mind if too many people think the same thing, I will be contrarian for the sake of defending the position no one else wants to take up.
But now you are making me think I've wasted my life. I probably have. Yep. I am almost certainly worthless like you said. I agree.
This isn't necessarily bad. Being able to understand the other side of some controversial topic, and even argue against your own position, is a sign of mental and emotional maturity.
Switching your position to whatever argument you heard most recently is not.
Dogmatists: unthinking, inflexible
Weathervanes: unthinking, flexible
Skeptics: thinking, inflexible
Pragmatists: thinking, flexible
The names are adhoc and should be taken with a grain of salt. The thinkingness axis we can attach a notion of good/bad to, since it is generally better to think things through than not.
Flexibility, not so much, but we can contrast the skeptic’s “I need more information before I can make a judgment” to the pragmatist’s “how can I use this right now?” and apply this to our workplaces. Certainly some of us are more skeptical than pragmatic, and vice versa.
I took this to mean: “weathervanes” are people who attach themselves to some popular sentiment without giving it much thought.
You could call them trendies, or in cybercultural terms: NPC, I SUPPORT THE CURRENT THING, etc
Dogma is -- by its very denotation -- inflexible. Partisans have no issue with flexibility.
It's a paradox because dogmatism typically implies a fixed perspective, whereas a refusal to be dogmatic typically suggests an openness to various perspectives.
Full contrarianism would be to reject the dogmatic beliefs. "If authority X claims it is true, it must be wrong." You would seek out beliefs that are in opposition to the dogma.
But not being dogmatic might just be aiming for immunity to dogma? "Whatever authority X claims is irrelevant." You might try to evaluate ideas on your own and form beliefs that are uncorrelated with the dogma.
I forgot to mention a third form of "not being dogmatic" which is closer to my own idiomatic understanding of the phrase. Rather than focusing on your consumption or reaction to prevailing dogma, it is also a useful not to try to be a source of dogma. Don't consider your own beliefs to be "facts" and don't try to become an authority who promotes or evangelizes a new prevailing dogma...
[1] https://kasmana.people.cofc.edu/MATHFICT/mfview.php?callnumb...
Skepticals are fairly flexible given that you can convince them with accurate, fact based information. IMO this is probably the best default for all of them. Pragmatists by your definition sound too trusting.
And flexibility as having gone through the "thinking" phase and arriving at a conclusion and opinion, the ability to defend, bend or uproot the previous conclusion or opinion as supported by newer evidence and experience.
Then there's people who pretend to be one but are another, some who don't know who they are, some who are splendid pragmatists in some areas and astute dogmatists in others.
And then you come across some weathernerves who've done much better for themselves simply by following , some dogmatists who've done well for themselves by leading the skeptics. While the pragmatists, sit around gathering and categorizing others and themselves, and some others commenting on such comments, thinking they've finally; finally figured it out.
Oh! The variety. Such is life...
Sometimes it's good to take a weathervane approach if you don't know much about an area and get blown around a bit before you're able to form an opinion. And yes that might make you look silly, but that's ok.
I think flexibility is orthogonal and turns this into a cube.
There are times when changing your position is absolutely the right thing to do.
I understand your strong reaction to events in some countries in recent years, but the conclusion is both incomplete and unfair.
People can and do think... This is demonstrable, look at the good things around us in the world.
However, people can be brought very low intellectually and civically by their environment. They are vulnerable to a society that does not guarantee education and accurate information (in traditional or in modern media).
People are willing to conform, especially in exchange for food and opportunity for shelter. People are consummately manipulated by the control of the information around them.
[1] https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0963721419862289
I think we're talking about data filtration here, not data processing. Yes?
I think we're talking about data filtration here, not data processing. Does that make sense?
To expand on that, someone who gradually changes their view is a little skeptical, but can be convinced given enough accumulated data points to accept a new paradigm. They effectively reject new information up to a point. That's what slowly changing your mind means.
This is beautiful.
I subscribe to the belief that "intelligence" is any system that can meaningfully organize information on its own, and, perhaps, is more of an emergent behavior of organized information, rather than used to organize information. Although, I'm not sure those can be separated in a meaningful way.
Probably people on both sides of an issue feel this way - "how could the other side not have changed their mind".
The practical reality is that nobody today can develop a sufficient depth of knowledge in more than a couple of niche subjects at best to be "right" about them at anything other than the most superficial of levels.
Somebody might read a book, or several books, or several books and some blogs about a subject, or even take one or several courses in it, but that doesn't mean they know it. They know some things about it, and some of the things they think they know about it will be wrong.
Maybe part of the disagreement here that isn't being addressed is the difference between ideas (or facts) and principles. My principles have changed very little over the years, and so the direction of my ideas haven't either. But my ideas change frequently because there are only a few subjects about which I know anything and I am a moron in the rest.
edit: and even in those couple of subjects where I might claim some expertise, I'm wrong frustratingly often.
Without thought/consideration, you can hold an obviously incorrect position for quite some time before someone else bothers to correct you, or until you discover the other information.
So, just because you _might_ be wrong, is not an excuse for not applying careful thought to all topics. This is especially true for 'strong opinions loosely held' people who seem to think that loosely holding an opinion is a replacement for putting even a modicum of thought into any given topic. It's not. You hold obviously wrong opinions and rely on people to correct you.
Almost everyone would find that almost all of their beliefs are based on very flimsy input/logic, and the bar for changing that belief is unfairly and wildly asymmetric.
I suspect most people believe themselves quite logical as to how they've arrived at their beliefs.
But Mr Reeves says about (not) trying to change someone else's mind, not own mind.
The issue though is when pigs get to make the laws.
Nice one. I say something more aggressive like: "excuse me, I go back down to earth talking with doctors saving patients' lives and engineers creating the planes in which you fly!".
And if their idea of fun consists of imposing laws on you by force?
For most people, I get to sample their view on something occasionally. I have no idea how far they are in the process of being wrong. Someone who is almost always wrong until they are convinced is a low coefficient source of information.
It's not enough to be convinced. You have to be right a lot. That's just how it is. This has served me well so far.
Arguably, Bayes and Laplace already expressed that idea.
This is a great personality for leaders/CEOs/politicians because the time-scale of large multi-person coordination requires that change is limited in scope and that only justifiable/authorized change is allowed. Allocation of power and authority being the purpose of social organization.
If you are not a leader, than you need to stop holding onto this terrible world view. The only path to truthy-knowledge, that we know of, is empirical observation and testing of hypothesis; The Scientific Method. Believe it or not, leading people is a skill older than science and has it's foundations in manipulation and control. And, in this system, "truth" does not matter at all. Or, even worse, "alternative truth" is acceptable as long as it suits your power-structure and social goals.
I am not a king/CEO/Pharaoh/President and, as such, hold consistency in about as high regard as used toilet-paper. I am, alternatively, an engineer and I have an ethical obligation to be correct. I have this duty, regardless of what people and their "common sense" or opinions may be. In other-words: I reserve the right to change my mind, at any time, when presented with new information. It absolutely must be this way. It may infuriate folks around me and make me look like a fool; yet, what is ethics if it's not doing the right thing in the face of adversity?
I'm also going to leave this [here](https://ethics.acm.org/code-of-ethics/software-engineering-c...) as a starting point for any young or maturing software engineers who need a foundation or jumping-off point to expand their understanding about ethics.
[0] https://www.amazon.com/dp/0143121359
I don't think i've seen this. Can you share some examples?
You should see the guy above complaining that woke liberals want to declare math to be white supremacy.
Either way, it's irrelevant what Keynes actual theory was; the point of my argument is that he continued to offer proposal after proposal and excuse after excuse for why his theory didn't actually work in practice (to end the Great Depression) instead of changing his mind and accepting that he was just wrong.
If you understand his liquidity preference theory and his Bancor proposal, then you would understand that the irrationality of deficit spending mirrors the irrationality of the system.
Why bother with deficit spending if the system worked even if you leave it alone? Oh right the problem is that the system won't work if you leave it alone. Thus any attempt to bring it back to rationality will look as irrational as the system that is being fixed. The system leaves an irrational gap that needs to be closed with a filler that takes on the shape of the irrationality.
Anyone who thinks that Keynes wasn't aware of the temporary nature of deficit spending doesn't know Keynes and instead fell for some caricature of him.
The answer to neutralising liquidity preference is to charge symmetric fees to both positive and negative money balances that are immediately available. The Bancor plan was an implementation of that concept for trade/current account balances between nations.
If your country generates too many export surpluses, then it has an incentive to reduce the surplus. If your country has an port surplus it also has an incentive to reduce the surplus. Thus there is an automatic stabilising mechanism that requires no intervention whatsoever. Countries can voluntarily join the Bancor system and although you might object that a perfect implementation requires strong capital controls, as long as there are political levers to encourage or discourage exports/imports, no capital controls are necessary. Balanced trade between nations means that the inequality between nations would quickly disappear because poorer countries are no longer building up foreign debt and richer countries are no longer piling up favours that they can use as geopolitical poker chips to go against the people's wishes in the poorer country.
Alas there is no Bancor system. So deficit spending it is. Politicians love deficit spending so at least you can accomplish a tiny massively distorted fragment of the original plan instead of nothing at all.
Applying symmetrical liquidity fees to domestic balances would result in intervention free full employment at which point the vast majority of neoclassical predictions would become true. If unemployment is nonexistent then there will be fewer unemployment benefits to pay out, which in turn means taxes can be cut, which in turn means that the purchasing power of workers goes up, which in turn means a lot of public spending becomes unnecessary. The one thing it wouldn't fix is that the rent will still be too damn high but since people have jobs they can afford to pay rent.
The business cycle isn't irrational. It's a rational outgrowth of the basic fact that there is a lag between investment and the realized gains (or losses) from that investment. The only thing needed to deal with this problem is a reliable and relatively quick system for liquidating debt.
> Anyone who thinks that Keynes wasn't aware of the temporary nature of deficit spending
I've heard this argument before and it still doesn't save him. If a theory includes a provision that is never actually recommended in practice, it's not really part of the theory.
Even if conceded this point (that deficit spending was temporary and would be replaced by austerity at-some-unnamed-point-in-the-future-when-everything-was-amazing), his theory on deficit spending is still wrong, because it assumes that the malinvestment (rational or irrational) that lead to the business cycle will somehow be improved by what will likely be *even more malinvestment* in the form of deficit spending.
When before confidence came as the result of skill and experience, now it's all "fake it till you make it".
The fact that we can't distinguigh between the two is a problem with our culture, which we actually can improve upon by explicitly condemning in public baseless confidence.
or woman
In all this the presumption is the "facts change", "information change", and "persuasion" is done from a basis of objective truth.
In Keyes (btw Sun Tzu 孫子 said something similar a wee bit earlier) notes this presumption is present, such that the information added to financial decision is objectively true.
But, in my experience in life (and even in investing) there are objective truths and then derivatives of objective & subjective truths. These second type of truths are often presented still as objective truths. To what percentage of the objective & subjective intermingle and when I decide the "truth" is now too subjective is... subjective.
Its that puzzled look in my inner monologue that triggers the question "is this truth objective enough to be considered to influence my current stance?"
In general I think as we gain more life experiences, the less subjective truths we tolerate in such derivative truths. Externally, this may manifest itself as jaded, or stubborn.
And, finally, even when we think something is objective -> 2+2=5
It's weird that people get mocked for changing their minds - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36491735 - June 2023 (179 comments)
“Every time I’m wrong, I learn something new.”
I repeat this to myself. I look for reasons to be wrong. Everything I think I know how to do well, I assume someone has a better way of doing it, and I want to know that way.
I don’t even stop short when it comes to religion or politics. You believe in God, convince me, that sounds great. Your political views are right? Okay, show me the evidence, I’ll listen and explore the idea.
But I do stand by what I am pretty certain is a fact if there would be consequences otherwise. That being said, I have very little confidence that I know any actual “facts”.